The 13 keys are a predictive model developed by Allan Lichtman and Russian geophysicist Vladimir Keilis-Borok for predicting the results of US presidential elections. Lichtman has been treated as a sort of nostradomus since he has been able to use his model to correctly predicted 9/10 elections. The model assigns 13 "keys" about the economy, political landscape and foreign policy. If 8 keys or more are true, the incumbent party will win; but with six of more false challenging party will win.
Lichtman got a lot of coverage during this election with his prediction, based on this model, that Kamala Harris would with reelection, and, as you may have heard, she lost spectacularly.
Lichtman has been on a cope crusade saying the predicton was good, but the keys assume a rational electorate and blah blah blah. Basically the voter are wrong and dumb and all the ists. Ovbiously that's not great cope, as the point of the keys is to predict who will win, not who should win; and the keys said Kamala would win... didn't they?
Lichtman gave Kamala nine keys: No primary contest, No third party, Strong short-term economy, Strong long-term economy, Major policy change, No social unrest, No scandal, Major foreign or military success, Uncharismatic challenger.
So how did he get it wrong? Are the keys bunk?
Well the key does have some flaws. A lot of them are subjective, and they don't account for a lot of edge cases(is a returning president at the same disadvantage another challenger?). But think the real flaw with Lichtmans prediction is not the keys, but his assignment of them. Lichtman let his personal views of poltics cloud his perception, and as a result he gave Kamala five keys that weren't true.
For reference the keys are.
1 Party mandate After the midterm elections, the incumbent party holds more seats in the U.S. House of Representatives than after the previous midterm elections.
2 No primary contest There is no serious contest for the incumbent party nomination.
3 Incumbent seeking re-election The incumbent party candidate is the sitting president.
4 No third party There is no significant third party or independent campaign.
5 Strong short-term economy The economy is not in recession during the election campaign.
6 Strong long-term economy Real per capita economic growth during the term equals or exceeds mean growth during the previous two terms.
7 Major policy change The incumbent administration effects major changes in national policy.
8 No social unrest There is no sustained social unrest during the term.
9 No scandal The incumbent administration is untainted by major scandal.
10 No foreign or military failure The incumbent administration suffers no major failure in foreign or military affairs.
11 Major foreign or military success The incumbent administration achieves a major success in foreign or military affairs.
12 Charismatic incumbent The incumbent party candidate is charismatic or a national hero.
13 Uncharismatic challenger The challenging party candidate is not charismatic or a national hero.
