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Sudanese Civil War

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Oceasia
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Sudanese Civil War

Postby Oceasia » Sat Oct 26, 2024 1:19 am

There was definitely a thread for this last year, but it seems to be inactive for months.

Starting on April 2023, there has been a civil war in Sudan, which started when the country's paramilitary group known as the Rapid Support Forces launched an attack in the county's capital Khartoum against the Sudanese Armed Forces. The political origins of this conflict (power struggle between the two groups, overthrow of the previous president etc.) are something that I don't quite understand. What I do know is that this war has caused massive loss of life and damages across the country, including what's likely the worst famine in the 21st century.

This conflict has been undertalked in most media across the world, which is less than ideal considering both the fact that this war is almost certainly the deadliest "hot" conflict on the planet, and the involvement of different countries in the war, each for their own geopolitical reasons. While there have been negotiations conducted by the warring parties and their intermediaries to end the war, it doesn't seem like the war will end anytime soon. What say you, NSG?

My opinion is that the SAF, as terrible as they are, does seem to undoubtedly be the lesser of two evils for Sudan. The RSF is documented as having comitted far more crimes against the civilian population, happening across pretty much every region they take control. And then there's the matter of a paramilitary force like them existing to begin with, which is never a good sign for any country, but we can now see the worst case scenario on display to the world.
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Hutsuls
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Postby Hutsuls » Sat Oct 26, 2024 1:44 am

In extremely simplistic terms, Sudanese civil war is a proxy war between USA and Russia.

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Raskana
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Postby Raskana » Sat Oct 26, 2024 1:54 am

Hutsuls wrote:In extremely simplistic terms, Sudanese civil war is a proxy war between USA and Russia.

How is the USA involved?
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Attestaltarragbistan Brassilistan
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Postby Attestaltarragbistan Brassilistan » Sat Oct 26, 2024 1:58 am

Hutsuls wrote:In extremely simplistic terms, Sudanese civil war is a proxy war between USA and Russia.

Where the hell do you get your information from?

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Azassas
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Postby Azassas » Sat Oct 26, 2024 1:59 am

A little brief from the wikipedia:

A civil war between two major rival factions of the military government of Sudan, the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) under Abdel Fattah al-Burhan and the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) and its allies (collectively the Janjaweed coalition) under the Janjaweed leader Hemedti, began during Ramadan on 15 April 2023.

Fighting has been concentrated around the capital city of Khartoum (largest and initial battle of the war) and the Darfur region. As of 8 September 2024, at least 20,000 people had been killed and 33,000 others were injured. As of 5 July 2024, over 7.7 million were internally displaced and more than 2.1 million others had fled the country as refugees, and many civilians in Darfur have been reported dead as part of the Masalit massacres.

Major foreign players: Egypt, United Arab Emirates, Russia, Iran.

Other foreign players: Chad, Kenya, Libyan National Army, United Kingdom

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sudanes ... %93present)
Last edited by Azassas on Sat Oct 26, 2024 2:03 am, edited 1 time in total.

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Hutsuls
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Postby Hutsuls » Sat Oct 26, 2024 2:18 am

Raskana wrote:
Hutsuls wrote:In extremely simplistic terms, Sudanese civil war is a proxy war between USA and Russia.

How is the USA involved?


To be more clear, Sudanese war is because SAF and RSF are fighting for power. USA, ignoring their sermons of democracy which they do when it serves their interests indulged with SAF head and there was conspiracy that SAF head wanted RSF head dead.

Which is why this started. USA is or was supporting SAF for oil and other resources and Russia supporting RSF for gaining domination in North Africa along with China.

Recently though, comically, both countries have switched sides, which is why RAF is amenable to USA talks, they attacked Russian plane, and SAF getting support of Russia, China and Iran.

For additional information on the causes of Sudanese civil war:

https://www.vox.com/world-politics/2023 ... -diplomacy

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Turenia
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Postby Turenia » Sat Oct 26, 2024 9:28 am

This whole war is clusterfuck. Let them fight it out, fuck them. The RSF seem like the side to be on; totalitarian brutes, but so is the other side. Both sides took part in the Khartoum massacre, so there's no good guy.

But the RSF seems more amenable to the west politically; I believe it held talks with Israel and is an ally of the UAE, a militant opposer of Iranian influence in the middle east. Sadly, the RSF are supported by Russia, Wagner and other crooks.
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El Lazaro
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Postby El Lazaro » Sat Oct 26, 2024 10:15 am

There is a small but present chance that this spills over into an extremely messy regional brawl centered around Ethiopia. The RSF and Fano (tl;dr basically an Ethiopian RSF/an ethno-nationalist militia that helped the Ethiopian government do a little ethnic cleansing before taking up arms to resist disbandment) could ally due to their shared enemies in the SAF and Tigrayan People’s Liberation Front, as could Fano and Eritrea if renewed tension with Ethiopia goes hot. Rival ethnic militias could take advantage of this distraction by resuming the fight with the Ethiopian government, as could Al-Qaeda, because of course they’re involved. Meanwhile, a Somali-Egyptian military alliance has been formed to counter the threats posed by filling the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (which could cause drought and famine upstream in Egypt and Sudan) and Ethiopia deal with Somaliland (a separatist state in Somalia) to gain port access in exchange for international recognition. The irony is that the Ethiopian Prime Minister is a Nobel Peace Prize laureate.

Edit: Al-Shabaab is affiliated with Al-Qaeda, not ISIS. The IS branch in Somalia is not active in Ethiopia.
Last edited by El Lazaro on Sat Oct 26, 2024 10:31 am, edited 1 time in total.

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Turenia
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Postby Turenia » Sat Oct 26, 2024 10:22 am

El Lazaro wrote:There is a small but present chance that this spills over into an extremely messy regional brawl centered around Ethiopia. The RSF and Fano (tl;dr basically an Ethiopian RSF/an ethno-nationalist militia that helped the Ethiopian government do a little ethnic cleansing before taking up arms to resist disbandment) could ally due to their shared enemies in the SAF and Tigrayan People’s Liberation Front, as could Fano and Eritrea if renewed tension with Ethiopia goes hot. Rival ethnic militias could take advantage of this distraction by resuming the fight with the Ethiopian government, as could the Islamic State, because of course they’re involved. Meanwhile, a Somali-Egyptian military alliance has been formed to counter the threats posed by filling the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (which could cause drought and famine upstream in Egypt and Sudan) and Ethiopia deal with Somaliland (a separatist state in Somalia) to gain port access in exchange for international recognition. The irony is that the Ethiopian Prime Minister is a Nobel Peace Prize laureate.

I recently read that Israel was considering recognizing Somaliland in exchange for a military facility.
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El Lazaro
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Postby El Lazaro » Sat Oct 26, 2024 10:32 am

Hutsuls wrote:
Raskana wrote:How is the USA involved?


To be more clear, Sudanese war is because SAF and RSF are fighting for power. USA, ignoring their sermons of democracy which they do when it serves their interests indulged with SAF head and there was conspiracy that SAF head wanted RSF head dead.

Which is why this started. USA is or was supporting SAF for oil and other resources and Russia supporting RSF for gaining domination in North Africa along with China.

Recently though, comically, both countries have switched sides, which is why RAF is amenable to USA talks, they attacked Russian plane, and SAF getting support of Russia, China and Iran.

For additional information on the causes of Sudanese civil war:

https://www.vox.com/world-politics/2023 ... -diplomacy

The article isn’t about the causes of the war, and it doesn’t really support the claim that America could have prevented the conflict. America is opposed to a military government of any sort in Sudan, but there’s no real way to combat either side except arming the fuck out of South Sudanese-backed rebels.

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Oceasia
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Postby Oceasia » Sat Oct 26, 2024 10:56 am

El Lazaro wrote:
Hutsuls wrote:
To be more clear, Sudanese war is because SAF and RSF are fighting for power. USA, ignoring their sermons of democracy which they do when it serves their interests indulged with SAF head and there was conspiracy that SAF head wanted RSF head dead.

Which is why this started. USA is or was supporting SAF for oil and other resources and Russia supporting RSF for gaining domination in North Africa along with China.

Recently though, comically, both countries have switched sides, which is why RAF is amenable to USA talks, they attacked Russian plane, and SAF getting support of Russia, China and Iran.

For additional information on the causes of Sudanese civil war:

https://www.vox.com/world-politics/2023 ... -diplomacy

The article isn’t about the causes of the war, and it doesn’t really support the claim that America could have prevented the conflict. America is opposed to a military government of any sort in Sudan, but there’s no real way to combat either side except arming the fuck out of South Sudanese-backed rebels.

I'm not sure if the rebels would implement a non-military government, tbh. Or even if they're interested in ruling all of Sudan, for that matter.
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Rio Cana
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Postby Rio Cana » Sat Oct 26, 2024 11:09 am

Time to cut loose Darfur from Sudan. Darfur has more history being independent then being part of Sudan. There mistake was in not remaining neutral but in supporting the Ottoman empire in WW I. This displeased the UK. which invaded this independent kingdom in 1916 and annexed them to Sudan.
Read this on that invasion - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Invasion_of_Darfur
Last edited by Rio Cana on Sat Oct 26, 2024 11:09 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Kaumudeen
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Postby Kaumudeen » Sat Oct 26, 2024 12:07 pm

Turenia wrote:This whole war is clusterfuck. Let them fight it out, fuck them. The RSF seem like the side to be on; totalitarian brutes, but so is the other side. Both sides took part in the Khartoum massacre, so there's no good guy.

But the RSF seems more amenable to the west politically; I believe it held talks with Israel and is an ally of the UAE, a militant opposer of Iranian influence in the middle east. Sadly, the RSF are supported by Russia, Wagner and other crooks.


"Amenable to the West"
"Supported by Russia"

make up your mind.
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Turenia
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Postby Turenia » Sat Oct 26, 2024 12:13 pm

Kaumudeen wrote:
Turenia wrote:This whole war is clusterfuck. Let them fight it out, fuck them. The RSF seem like the side to be on; totalitarian brutes, but so is the other side. Both sides took part in the Khartoum massacre, so there's no good guy.

But the RSF seems more amenable to the west politically; I believe it held talks with Israel and is an ally of the UAE, a militant opposer of Iranian influence in the middle east. Sadly, the RSF are supported by Russia, Wagner and other crooks.


"Amenable to the West"
"Supported by Russia"

make up your mind.

Huh...?

They seem amenable to the west due to pro-secular tendencies, alliance with the UAE and opposition (indirectly) to the Iran-backed government.

However, I would not back them because Russia and Wagner have chosen to make them their dog in the fight.

What do you not understand about the point i was making?
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Postby Vrbo » Sat Oct 26, 2024 12:15 pm

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Oceasia
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Postby Oceasia » Sat Oct 26, 2024 12:21 pm

Kaumudeen wrote:
Turenia wrote:This whole war is clusterfuck. Let them fight it out, fuck them. The RSF seem like the side to be on; totalitarian brutes, but so is the other side. Both sides took part in the Khartoum massacre, so there's no good guy.

But the RSF seems more amenable to the west politically; I believe it held talks with Israel and is an ally of the UAE, a militant opposer of Iranian influence in the middle east. Sadly, the RSF are supported by Russia, Wagner and other crooks.


"Amenable to the West"
"Supported by Russia"

make up your mind.

Those two things aren't necessarily contradictory. The world isn't neatly divided into 2 camps. It's been more than 30 years since the Cold War ended.
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Kaumudeen
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Postby Kaumudeen » Sat Oct 26, 2024 12:47 pm

Between Al Burhan and Hemedti, Al Burhan is the lesser of two evils.
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Oceasia
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Postby Oceasia » Sun Oct 27, 2024 6:04 am

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...|.)|.)(..)===<<<
Economic Left/Right= -3.0
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Turenia
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Postby Turenia » Sun Oct 27, 2024 6:36 am

There isn't a good side to this war. Very dirty.
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Risottia
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Postby Risottia » Sun Oct 27, 2024 9:04 am

Well, the Sudanese can just ask for the help of the Arab League, Burkina Faso, Mali, Niger, Ethiopia, China, Russia, and other entirely effective, absolutely well-meaning and non-colonial entities; unlike those evil Europeans.
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Adamede
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Postby Adamede » Sun Oct 27, 2024 9:27 am

Hutsuls wrote:
Raskana wrote:How is the USA involved?


To be more clear, Sudanese war is because SAF and RSF are fighting for power. USA, ignoring their sermons of democracy which they do when it serves their interests indulged with SAF head and there was conspiracy that SAF head wanted RSF head dead.

Which is why this started. USA is or was supporting SAF for oil and other resources and Russia supporting RSF for gaining domination in North Africa along with China.

Recently though, comically, both countries have switched sides, which is why RAF is amenable to USA talks, they attacked Russian plane, and SAF getting support of Russia, China and Iran.

For additional information on the causes of Sudanese civil war:

https://www.vox.com/world-politics/2023 ... -diplomacy

If you’re going to make shit up at least have something that backs up what you say.

Risottia wrote:Well, the Sudanese can just ask for the help of the Arab League, Burkina Faso, Mali, Niger, Ethiopia, China, Russia, and other entirely effective, absolutely well-meaning and non-colonial entities; unlike those evil Europeans.

I mean the UAE and Russia are actively supporting the RSF so they’re already involved.
Last edited by Adamede on Sun Oct 27, 2024 9:28 am, edited 1 time in total.

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Adamede
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Postby Adamede » Sun Oct 27, 2024 9:30 am

Turenia wrote:This whole war is clusterfuck. Let them fight it out, fuck them. The RSF seem like the side to be on; totalitarian brutes, but so is the other side. Both sides took part in the Khartoum massacre, so there's no good guy.

But the RSF seems more amenable to the west politically; I believe it held talks with Israel and is an ally of the UAE, a militant opposer of Iranian influence in the middle east. Sadly, the RSF are supported by Russia, Wagner and other crooks.

Yah no. Lip service alone is not what makes one amenable to anything, let alone when they’re actively allied to your main enemy.

Regardless I’d rather we supported less armed strongmen, not more.

Oceasia wrote:
Kaumudeen wrote:
"Amenable to the West"
"Supported by Russia"

make up your mind.

Those two things aren't necessarily contradictory. The world isn't neatly divided into 2 camps. It's been more than 30 years since the Cold War ended.

He says, as the world begins to enter into a new Cold War.
Last edited by Adamede on Sun Oct 27, 2024 9:32 am, edited 1 time in total.

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Oceasia
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Postby Oceasia » Sun Oct 27, 2024 10:26 am

Adamede wrote:
Oceasia wrote:Those two things aren't necessarily contradictory. The world isn't neatly divided into 2 camps. It's been more than 30 years since the Cold War ended.

He says, as the world begins to enter into a new Cold War.

Maybe, but this time there's no grand ideological battle between two superpowers.
..()_()
.(o - o) /\
...|.....\/...\
...|......\vvv\
...|.)|.)(..)===<<<
Economic Left/Right= -3.0
Social Liberal/Authoritarian= -4.41
You are 2.8% Evil.
You are 17.9% Lawful.
Alignment: True Neutral
Jurassic World has announced a new attraction coming this June. No other details were given.

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Adamede
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Postby Adamede » Sun Oct 27, 2024 10:31 am

Oceasia wrote:
Adamede wrote:
He says, as the world begins to enter into a new Cold War.

Maybe, but this time there's no grand ideological battle between two superpowers.

Except there is. It’s not over economics, but over democratic vs authoritarian governance and might makes right foreign policy.

I’m not going to act like the west is some innocent lb here but to act like we’re not in the midst of a new Cold War is just naïveté.

Not to mention that the RSF are not exactly good guys, neither are the military forces.
Last edited by Adamede on Sun Oct 27, 2024 11:24 am, edited 1 time in total.

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Turenia
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Postby Turenia » Mon Oct 28, 2024 5:21 am

Adamede wrote:
Turenia wrote:This whole war is clusterfuck. Let them fight it out, fuck them. The RSF seem like the side to be on; totalitarian brutes, but so is the other side. Both sides took part in the Khartoum massacre, so there's no good guy.

But the RSF seems more amenable to the west politically; I believe it held talks with Israel and is an ally of the UAE, a militant opposer of Iranian influence in the middle east. Sadly, the RSF are supported by Russia, Wagner and other crooks.

Yah no. Lip service alone is not what makes one amenable to anything, let alone when they’re actively allied to your main enemy.

Regardless I’d rather we supported less armed strongmen, not more.

I'm not against supporting strongmen, sometimes that is needed.

But you're definitely right, I was probably wrong on this one. I looked more into the RSF, and there are reports of women committing suicide rather than live under their rule.

This whole war is a depraved mess, and it would be better to play a neutral role.
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