The Seagull Ascendant(A Dutch Election Thread)

[Shrillland]

After 18 months, the halfway point of the mandate, Mark Rutte's fourth government as Dutch PM has officially collapsed, and elections are to take place on Wednesday, November 22.

Rutte's had a hard two-plus years, starting with the nearly year-long struggle to form a government after the Omtzigt/Benefits Affair, which saw former CDA Leader Pieter Omtzigt unwittingly at the centre of a scandal that nearly brought down Rutte before he could even form a cabinet. He managed to pull through and has been governing since. Even so, he's had to face the meteoric rise of a brand new party, the BBB, or the Farmer-Citizen Movement, which split from the CDA in 2019 in opposition to the government's ban on neonicotinoid pesticides and nitrogen mitigation measures(which would require less effective, but more environmentally friendly, fertilisers being used).This year saw the BBB rise up as an alternative voice on the right, winning major victories in both the provincial votes in March and the Eerste Kamer(Upper House) election in May, now holding the plurality of Senators. Finally, on Friday, July 7, the axe finally came down as two of the four parties in Rutte's Coalition, CU and D66, voiced their opposition to proposed immigration restrictions. At the end of August, Omtzigt set up his own centre-right party, the New Social Contract, which has soared to top running in the latest polls. The Tweede Kamer is now up for a vote.

EDIT: On July 19, Rutte announced his retirement from the VVD Leadership, a new leader will be chosen TBD. Hoekstra also resigned from the CDA leadership.

EDIT: 18/7, PvdA and GL are now running under a joint list called VL or United Left.

Here's how it'll go down. The Tweede Kamer has 150 seats selected by open list PR in a single national constituency with no threshold. Simple, right?

Now then, let's meet the parties(only the top nine polling will appear in the Poll, Others you can choose with Other)

Farmer-Citizen Movement(BBB) led by Caroline Van Der Plas: Centre-right to Right, Conservative, Agrarian, Eurosceptic

People's Party for Freedom and Democracy(VVD) led by Current PM Dilan Yesilgoz-Zegerius: Centre-right, Conservative Liberal

Party for Freedom(PVV) led by Geert Wilders: Right to Far Right, Hard Eurosceptic, Right Populist, Dutch Nationalist, Anti-Immigration, Anti-Islamic

United Left(VL) led by Frans Timmermans: an alliance consisting of: GroenLinks(GL) led by Jesse Klaver: Centre-left to Left, Social Democratic, Green Policy and Labour Party(PvdA) with Attje Kuiken as Tweede Kamer Leader: Centre-left, Social Democratic

Democrats 66(D66) led by Rob Jettens: Centre, Eurofederalist, Social Liberal

Party for the Animals(PvdD) led by Esther Ouwehand: Left Wing, Animal Right, Soft Eurosceptic, Environmentalist

Socialist Party(SP) led by Lilian Marijnissen: Left Wing, Democratic Socialist

Right Answer 2021(JA21) led by Joorst Eerdmans: Right to Far Right, Right Populist, Conservative Liberal, Eurosceptic, Anti-Immigration

Christian Democratic Appeal(CDA) led by Henri Bontenbal: Centre to Centre-right, Christian Democratic, Social Conservative

Volt Nederland led by Laurens Dassen: Centre, Social Liberal, Eurofederalist

Forum for Democracy(FvD) led by Thierry Baudet: Far Right, Souverainist, Hard Eurosceptic

Christian Union(CU) led by Marjam Bikker: Centre, Calvinist, Christian Democratic, Social Conservative

Reformed Political Party(SGP) led by Kees Van Der Staaji: Right Wing, Dutch Reformist, Theocratic, Soft Eurosceptic

DENK led by Farid Azarkan: Centre-left, Islamic and Afro-Dutch Interests, Social Democratic, Social Conservative, Multiculturalist

50+ led by Martin Van Rooijen: Centre, Seniors' Interests, Populist

BIJ1 led by Sylvana Simons: Left to Far Left, Anti-Capitalist, Afro-Dutch Interests, Anti-Racist, Socialist, Marxist, Feminist, Intersectionalist

Interest of the Netherlands(BVNL) led by Wybren Van Haga: Right Wing, Classical Liberal, Right Populist, Eurosceptic, Direct Democratic

New Social Contract(NSC) led by Pieter Omtzigt: Centre, Big Tent

A lot of parties to choose from, and I'll be going, as usual, with GL. How about you?

[Eternal Algerstonia]

i don't care who wins as long as they launch an invasion of belgium with the intent of annexing flanders

[ARIsyan-]

I'll always support Bij1 even though they are quite small as all the other parties are too capitalist for my liking, though if need be I could always support Greenleft.

It's disappointing to see such an anti-environmentalist party such as the BBB gain such traction, however it's what happens when the government doesn't properly handle the transition to sustainable farming practices so I guess it's deserved.

[Quaxoglia]

i don't care who wins as long as they launch an invasion of belgium with the intent of annexing flanders

Off topic: I'm Belgian-Flemish and no. We will never accept an annexation by the Netherlands. We're too different. We have more in common with Wallonia. I'm sick and tired of people interfering with Belgian domestic politics. It's not your business.

Anyway on topic: I would support Partij van de Dieren. They really care about the environment. And they could bring change.

[Outer Sparta]

i don't care who wins as long as they launch an invasion of belgium with the intent of annexing flanders

Based and oranjepilled

[Bienenhalde]

I would probably support either Christian Democratic Appeal or Christian Union, but which one would depend on the particular issues and platforms in this election.

[Uiiop]

RIP the Campaign Trial mod about this.

[El Lazaro]

Poll: has 9 options
40% of NSers: not enough

i don't care who wins as long as they launch an invasion of belgium with the intent of annexing flanders

With all the random, fringe, and frivolous parties, I’m honestly surprised these isn’t a party for restoring the borders of the United Kingdom of the Netherlands.

i don't care who wins as long as they launch an invasion of belgium with the intent of annexing flanders

Off topic: I'm Belgian-Flemish and no. We will never accept an annexation by the Netherlands. We're too different. We have more in common with Wallonia. I'm sick and tired of people interfering with Belgian domestic politics. It's not your business.

Anyway on topic: I would support Partij van de Dieren. They really care about the environment. And they could bring change.

Belgians don’t like it? Full support then.

[Shrillland]

Poll: has 9 options
40% of NSers: not enough

i don't care who wins as long as they launch an invasion of belgium with the intent of annexing flanders

With all the random, fringe, and frivolous parties, I’m honestly surprised these isn’t a party for restoring the borders of the United Kingdom of the Netherlands.

Off topic: I'm Belgian-Flemish and no. We will never accept an annexation by the Netherlands. We're too different. We have more in common with Wallonia. I'm sick and tired of people interfering with Belgian domestic politics. It's not your business.

Anyway on topic: I would support Partij van de Dieren. They really care about the environment. And they could bring change.

Belgians don’t like it? Full support then.

Yeah, that's always something I have to contend with when the Netherlands comes for a vote. The ultra-simple system with no thresholds means a LOT of parties to discuss.

[The BlAAtschApen]

I'll vote party of the animals

[Shrillland]

Rutte Retires as VVD Leader and Lijstrekker, VVD Prepares for Leadership Election

Rutte was the longest serving PM in modern Dutch history and will remain until the new Tweede Kamer is formed.

In addition, CDA Leader and Foreign Minister Hoekstra also announces his resignation

Everybody's abandoning ship before Van Der Plas becomes PM, I think.

[The BlAAtschApen]

Rutte Retires as VVD Leader and Lijstrekker, VVD Prepares for Leadership Election

Rutte was the longest serving PM in modern Dutch history and will remain until the new Tweede Kamer is formed.

He will remain until a next cabinet is formed.

Which will take some more time.

[ARIsyan-]

Rutte Retires as VVD Leader and Lijstrekker, VVD Prepares for Leadership Election

Rutte was the longest serving PM in modern Dutch history and will remain until the new Tweede Kamer is formed.

In addition, CDA Leader and Foreign Minister Hoekstra also announces his resignation

Everybody's abandoning ship before Van Der Plas becomes PM, I think.

I feel like the BBB could end up like the FvD, where they experience a large surge in support before a scandal occurs and then the traditional parties take back most of their voter base. Plus, the left-wing bloc is projected to gain quite a bit of seats, which could spell doom for any sort of BBB coalition as I doubt the VVD would want to work with them.

[Shrillland]

D66 Leader Kaag to announce her political future in the coming days

She's expected to step down from the leadership.

In other somewhat election-related news, Greenpeace is launching legal action against the state for its insufficient nitrogen mitigation measures.

This will make the BBB and its allies ever more cross.

VVD Tweede Kamer Leader Sophie Hermans decides not to run for leadership

[Shrillland]

Omtzigt decides against joining BBB, still considering whether he'll form his own party

Polls are shown that if he does, he could reach the maximum seat count allowed smaller or newer parties(50 candidates on the list, parties with at least 15 seats can have up to 80 candidates).

[Shrillland]

CDA's announced that their next leader isn't allowed to join the Cabinet and must serve as Tweede Kamer Leader instead

[Juristonia]

Oh joy, we're going to end up with Lientje and the VVD.

I'm voting PvdD again, since the SP still seems physically incapable of pulling their heads from their asses.

Off topic: I'm Belgian-Flemish and no. We will never accept an annexation by the Netherlands. We're too different. We have more in common with Wallonia. I'm sick and tired of people interfering with Belgian domestic politics. It's not your business.

Shush. You're Dutch now.

[Thermodolia]

Rutte Retires as VVD Leader and Lijstrekker, VVD Prepares for Leadership Election

Rutte was the longest serving PM in modern Dutch history and will remain until the new Tweede Kamer is formed.

He will remain until a next cabinet is formed.

Which will take some more time.

If the poll numbers are any suggestion it may be never

[Shrillland]

It's now official: Kaag's out at D66

[Shrillland]

The date's set: Wednesday, November 22.

[Shrillland]

PvdA and GroenLinks decide on a joint list similar to their Eerste Kamer strategy

It will be called VL, or United Left. GL Leader Jesse Klaver has also joined the PvdA. The poll's been updated accordingly with CDA now bumped into the top nine, apologies to all who've voted.

Polls now have VL and BBB in a dead heat.

[Bahrimontagn]

It will probably end up being another VVD led coalition.

[Shrillland]

It's been nearly a month, but we've got some new leaders among the major parties.

First, VVD's selected Justice Minister Dilan Yesilgoz-Zegerius to be their leader and lijsttrekker. If she wins, she'd be the first women PM, the first Kurdish and Turkish PM, and the first PM born outside the Netherlands since Count van Zuylen van Nijvelt(born in Luxembourg though from a noble family in Rotterdam) stepped down in 1868

VL, meanwhile, has chosen former FM, current European Commission VP and EU Climate Chief Frans Timmermans to lead them in November

Finally, D66 has chosen Caretaker Climate and Energy Minister Rob Jettens who, like Timmermans, ran unopposed

[The BlAAtschApen]

It's been nearly a month, but we've got some new leaders among the major parties.

First, VVD's selected Justice Minister Dilan Yesilgoz-Zegerius to be their leader and lijsttrekker. If she wins, she'd be the first women PM, the first Kurdish and Turkish PM, and the first PM born outside the Netherlands since Count van Zuylen van Nijvelt(born in Luxembourg though from a noble family in Rotterdam) stepped down in 1868

If she wins, it doesn't automatically mean that she will be PM.

[ARIsyan-]

It's been nearly a month, but we've got some new leaders among the major parties.

First, VVD's selected Justice Minister Dilan Yesilgoz-Zegerius to be their leader and lijsttrekker. If she wins, she'd be the first women PM, the first Kurdish and Turkish PM, and the first PM born outside the Netherlands since Count van Zuylen van Nijvelt(born in Luxembourg though from a noble family in Rotterdam) stepped down in 1868

VL, meanwhile, has chosen former FM, current European Commission VP and EU Climate Chief Frans Timmermans to lead them in November

Finally, D66 has chosen Caretaker Climate and Energy Minister Rob Jettens who, like Timmermans, ran unopposed

Timmermans was a good choice for sure, he's a good personality and experienced in Dutch politics, hopefully he leads the party to a first place victory which should stave off the worst of BBB. Even if he doesn't become PM it'll prevent a right-wing anti-environment party from winning.