Erdogan first became Turkey’s leader in 2003, running as a populist and religious moderate pitted against a corrupt, authoritarian, and elitist political establishment both intolerant of ethnic minorities and the visibly religious and incapable of resolving economic issues. He swept the elections, survived both the 2007 military coup threat and a 2016 coup attempt, used the aforementioned events as a springboard to consolidate power and reform the constitution, purged his enemies, saturated the media and legal system with loyalists, and made a new political establishment in his own image. Beyond aesthetic differences, what sets him apart is that he’s a savvy politician, in spite of his unpopularity.
Essentially, this election is a referendum on Erdogan, who can loosely be described as a right-wing populist, national-chauvinist, and charismatic demagogue. Though he initially ran on a promise to defeat economic mismanagement and corruption, soaring inflation and crippling wealth inequality—showcased by the horrific aftermath of the 2023 earthquakes—have undermined his popularity. Still, the opposition faces the challenges of finding a persuasive, unifying message and overcoming Erdogan’s grip on Turkish political institutions. Without further ado, here are the parties by their alliances:
People’s Alliance/CUMHUR (right-wing to far-right)
Nation Alliance/MİLLET (center-left to center-right)
Labor and Freedom Alliance (left-wing to far-left)
Ancestral Alliance/ATA Alliance (right-wing to far-right)
The Homeland Party’s campaign
There is also a far-left alliance called the Union of Socialist Forces, but they lack any seats, and I cannot find any polling data or presidential endorsements from them.
And that’s all of them, at least the ones that will fit on a poll. Here’s the obligatory so, what do you all think? Opinions on who should win and predictions on who will? Is this election a pivotal point in global politics or is the media attention the equivalent of rubbernecking at a car crash?
Incidentally, Turkey turns 100 years old this year, making Erdogan one-fifth of the republic’s history. More importantly, Turkey is both a significant regional power and a sort of middle ground between Europe and the Middle East. Since the candidates have very different visions for Turkey’s future political system and foreign policy doctrine, along with the general context of democratic backsliding worldwide, I think this will be an election worth watching. Lastly, feel free to correct anything I got wrong in the OP. I’m also pretty sleepy, so apologies if some of this doesn’t make sense.
