2022 Wagain General Election (Live Results; ATTN EOA)

[Novo Wagondia]

2022 Election Tracker
@MPP_Política

Having secured 497 of 965 seats in Wagondia's lower house, MPP News is now calling control of the Chamber of Deputies for the Liberal Coalition.

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★ ★ ★ Liberal Coalition Wins Chamber of Deputies ★ ★ ★

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497 of 210 seats clinched

RETWEETSFAVORITE
21,05628,537

15:10 SCT || 1 December 2022

[Novo Wagondia]

@IHonorato_MPP

Decisive results from Mexico tonight, as MPP projects the Liberal Coalition to have officially maintained its hold on the Chamber of Deputies. A serviceable showing in Mexico has put the government across the all-important line of 483 seats — they're currently standing at 497 (including one independent), with Wagain Polynesia's at-large seat yet to be called. The conservatives fought bitterly tonight, but ultimately they'll finish two or three seats behind where they started a few months back.

With the Labour Party defending its status as the largest party in government, Fradique Barrachina will have a new lease as Prime Minister, albeit at the helm of a substantially changed ideological coalition. I think we'll see a lot of soul searching on both sides going forward, and very likely a renegotiation of terms by the Aprista Alliance, who are now undoubtedly the pacesetters of change, having nearly tripled their standing in Parliament.

@MTriana_MPP

I'm a big Bogotá Griegos fan, Igor, so if you'll permit me a baseball metaphor, there's a saying that every team loses a third of their games every year and every team wins a third of their games every year. It's what you do with the middle third that counts. We didn't see a blowout this cycle, and never really expected one given how partisan the political climate is right now. What we did see was an intense fight over a pretty narrow middle ground, and I think both sides made a convincing case for it. You could certainly write this victory off as the ascendance of a New Left in Wagondia, but as with anything the full picture may be more complicated. Let's not forget that the Chamber of Deputies actually bucked the trend somewhat, since the conservatives are projected to gain overall in both the Senate and the gubernatorial map.

@IHonorato_MPP

Absolutely! If you step back from the national picture, it looks like the PB still did pretty well for itself in Mexico. Caterina Cotilla's win in the gubernatorial race was a huge upset, sweetening what is otherwise a fairly bitter night for the Opposition Leader. And that's not mentioning the PB's six turnovers in the lower house, even if it wasn't enough to put them in the lead nationwide. The narrative of public safety and economic moderation clearly had some currency here — I actually think Mexico could have gone deeper for the conservatives, if not for the huge influx of pro-government capital here.

@MTriana_MPP

Stephen Harper and Bold New Better certainly seem to have been vindicated. They poured an immense amount of time and money into Mexico, even at the cost of other areas like Chile or the Philippines. Proposition 10, one of the most ambitious left-wing ballot measures anywhere in the empire, was a particular target of funding, energizing the kind of young, idealistic voters who refused to stay home on election day.

[Novo Wagondia]

@MTriana_MPP

I feel obliged to mention that it is anarchy here in Santa Catalina. It's still the middle of the workday in Castrofeite, but you'd think it was the Copa América final, the way crowds of people are pouring into the street, chanting pro-government slogans and celebrating the victory of the first Xapenho Prime Minsiter. Cars have been brought to a complete stop, their owners dancing on the rooftops, or being handed beers from new friends in the crowd.

@IHonorato_MPP

It's certainly a historic occasion, Mónica. I think one of the great narratives we'll take away from this election is that politics is in fashion, and in a big way. Voter turnout is still being tabulated, but I wouldn't be surprised to see it in the neighborhood of 75-80%, miles ahead of anything I've seen in my lifetime. A lot of those first-time voters showed up with strong ideas about what direction the country should head in, and an overwhelming readiness to roll up their sleeves and help it along.

[Novo Wagondia]

2022 Election Tracker
@MPP_Política

For its final projection of the 2022 Election Season, MPP News has turned to the Overseas Collectivity of Wagain Polynesia.

With 90% of precincts reporting, it looks like incumbent Senator Hiro Haoa (CVA) will narrowly miss the threshold for re-election. Enough voters have rallied around right-wing Regional Assembly President Juliette Sanquer (PB) to put her over the top, a final flipped seat in the upper house.

In the Chamber of Deputies, the province's sole representative, liberal conservative Farahinano "Farah" Barsinas (PB), will hold her at-large seat.

PB: 1 (even)

RETWEETSFAVORITE
3,5615,410

16:39 SCT || 1 December 2022

[Novo Wagondia]

@MTriana_MPP

And so Wagain Polynesia delivers us the final update in this brilliant, beautiful saga of a General Election. It's a nice note to end on for the PB, with a pickup in the Senate and a hold in the lower house, bring them officially to 468 seats in the Chamber of Deputies — a -2 margin from 2018. In the Senate, the Opposition will finish with 95 seats, or a +4 margin from 2018. In the governor's races, they've managed +2 on net, drawing them even with the Liberals with 19 provincial executives apiece.

Igor, you and I are both back on the traffic desk after this week, so let's savor one last survey of the field. You're our numbers guy, so why don't you run through the polling report for us?

@IHonorato_MPP

Ooh, it wouldn't be a Sancho-Lira special without some good old polling data. As you're well aware, Mónica, the Liberal Coalition went into this election with a slight lead in the national generic ballot, hovering around 51.5% — leaving 48.5% for the Opposition. If you accept that polls should correlate roughly with final performance, the Liberals ended up with 497 seats, or 51.503% of the Chamber, shockingly dead-on in terms of expectations.

But, of course, decisions like these aren't made nationwide. They're navigated separately on a state-by-state, sometimes even city-by-city basis, and can play out very differently in different parts of the country. One of my big takeaways this cycle was the power of narrative. In places where conservatives were able to get in early and set up a strong story, be it crime prevention, national sovereignty, economic rejuvenation, or what have you, they did very well. The same can be said for the liberals, in places where they were able to energize just the right coalition of young people, immigrants, and working people, often behind left-wing ballot measures that spelled out in plain text a more inclusive, sustainable future lots of voters could get behind.

[Novo Wagondia]

@IHonorato_MPP

This election was seen by many as a referendum on not just Wagain politics, but Wagondia's position in the world as a whole. What do you think we've learned about the postwar order, Mónica? Is it safe to say the Prime Minister's message of détente and forward reconstruction has won out?

@MTriana_MPP

Without a doubt, Igor. It's no coincidence that two of the parties more associated with isolationism and overseas neutrality, Liga and the PNW, both suffered dearly this cycle. I wouldn't be surprised if the newly-emboldened Prime Minister takes this opportunity to shore up support abroad — he's long positioned himself as a statesman of global caliber, and really made foreign policy the center of his message to voters this November. Now he can return to those summits and state dinners with real, tangible evidence that the Wagain people are behind him, and that his vision of Wagain leadership is here to stay.

@IHonorato_MPP

Let's sign off with a look ahead, Mónica. What are both coalitions going to focus on heading forward?

@MTriana_MPP

Well there is some immediate housekeeping the PM will need to do to keep his coalition in check. Manuel Huezo Mixco, as leader of the parliamentary Aprista Party, will become Deputy Leader, but I'd expect some cabinet posts and senior foreign policy positions to be handed out to leftists as well. Once the new government is seated, there will be a lot of pressure to strike while the iron is hot, and we could see a deluge of action on red meat issues popular with voters. More divisive issues like nationalization or drug reform could be put in a drawer until after the holidays, when the dust has settled and the Barrachina Administration can take stock of its political capital. Given the sharp gains made by the Socialist List (that's the Apristas, AAC, and CVA) this cycle, it's likely the Chamber of Deputies will be the more radical chamber, demanding quick action on sweeping reforms, while the Senate flexes its power as the chamber of sober second thought.

I'm not sure if you watched the Lester Kutan Show on Conch News last night, but they had a guest on who made an excellent point regarding the longer-term future of both parties. The conservatives proved their message has staying power, even in an environment where the Prime Minister is popular and the global political climate has shifted firmly to the left. Over the next few years, they have an opportunity to consolidate their hold on province- and local-level offices, cultivating candidates who will want to run for marquee positions the next time around. People like Caterina Cotilla (governor-elect of Mexico), Rudy Mascardo (governor-elect of the Philippines), and Roosevelt Lindor (governor of Cayenne) all represent different factions of the party, but they've all proven they can win big even when the national environment is against them. They could all be Prime Minister themselves somewhere down the line. As they gear up for another term in the political wilderness, the Partido Blanco is more unified than ever before. Sitting across from the government gives them a common enemy, and inspires loyalty to their leader, who's kept them alive to fight another day. It'll be interesting to see what comes next.

@IHonorato_MPP

And because this has been such a delight the first time around, I have to ask — when can we expect to team up again? When could the next General Election occur?

@MTriana_MPP

We really do have to do this more often, Igor. But like a first date, I can't commit to anything yet. Parliamentary politics are naturally flaky that way — the Constitution mandates that Parliament must be dissolved within four years of being sworn in (that's December 2026 for those counting), but it's fairly rare for one party to make it that whole stretch without a couple surprises. Barrachina managed to keep his coalition in line through the span of the Third World War, but now that there's not such an immediate existential threat to the empire, there are a number of things which could bring us back to election season sooner than expected. Disappointing results in the next Senate or local elections, or for that matter any number of scandals, could erode the party's faith in its Prime Minister, triggering another no confidence vote or even a general election. There could also be a re-alignment of interests in the Chamber of Deputies, if, for example, enough deputies can be coaxed away from the government to break up its patchwork coalition. And lastly, let's not forget that there's a whole big world out there, which Wagondia is more entangled in than ever before. If, lord forbid, the empire were to suddenly find itself in a hostile position, losing support overseas or staring down new enemies, you could see a wholesale shift in our values, and there's no guarantee the current Prime Minister will still be the right man for the job.

[Novo Wagondia]

@MTriana_MPP

With that, we're going to update our results tables for a final time, and formally suspend our election night coverage after four days of suspense, intrigue, and drama, from the shores of the Pacific to the heights of the Andes.

From all of us here at MPP, we hope you've enjoyed this election live blog special, and look forward to greeting you again next time around! From Mónica Triana and Igor Honorato, this is the voice of the tropics, signing off.