He took the copy of the hastily drafted treaty text and read it thoroughly. Then, he looked up and said, "It reads well. My only recommendation is to strike out the text concerning our blockade evasion efforts, meaning the diversion of trade through Nicaro. Best that this remains secret. When the blockade has ended, this provision will be unnecessary since you will be able to directly import and export again, as the text itself suggests. When that is amended, I have the authorization from His Imperial Majesty to sign the treaty on the terms defined within."
The agreement was somewhat of a gamble. First, it put the Federal Republic in a tight situation. Although the Golden Throne considered the FRCP to be the aggressor, its aggression against the Ice States was not condemnable. In fact, the Golden Throne was the author and signatory of the Freedom and Liberty Act, the GDRC bill that banned the slave trade within the region of Greater Díenstad. Outside of the FRCP's actions against imperial trade, its bellicosity towards TIS was considered 'legal' and justified. Furthermore, because the shooting war between the two states had been directly provoked by TIS, the FRCP would likely ask for some sort of concession or spoil before agreeing to withdraw. With a fresh mutual defense agreement signed with the Golden Throne, TIS would have very little incentive to give in to such a demand. This heightened the risk of war between the FRCP and the Golden Throne, right as the likelihood of war was finally beginning to draw down. Second, there was still quite a bit of uncertainty on whether the 5-year provision for the full emancipation of Icean slaves would satisfy international parties, international parties who were preparing to intervene against TIS themselves. If there wasn't buy-in, all this effort would be for naught and the Golden Throne would be in an awkward position, half-allied with TIS but unwilling to defend it from states whose friendship it considered to be older, more solid, and more important at the moment. Third, Derego was signing it on behalf of His Imperial Majesty without first passing the treaty text to Fedala for inspection.
But, events were quickly spiraling and Derego felt that this was a 'now or never' moment. So he decided to throw the dice.
MANAGUA, SOUTHERN NICARO
Managua, capital of the Nicaroan south, was teeming with Macabéan soldiers. This was true on a usual day, and these were not usual days. If there were always a lot of occupiers in Managua, their numbers had at least doubled in the past week.
Gunfire sounded in some jungle battlefield out east of Managua. If the city was firmly under imperial control, the outlying countryside had to be constantly patrolled to keep it pacified. That didn't stop the mayors from being car bombed or the teachers from being gunned down; every 'good citizen' was liable to be turned into an example of what happened to someone who 'worked for the imperialists.' It did mean that every city, town, and village was billeted with its own garrison of limikari, the policing forces of the Ejermacht. Macabéan money was everywhere now, and the average southern Nicaroan dealt with it in small change as they sold to the soldiers or earned wages from the military. And that day-to-day interaction had multiplied in the past week.
Although Nicaro already based a significant garrison of regulares, the imperial field army, this force was still small compared to the garrisons elsewhere. In anticipation of a deployment to the Ice States in the near future, the Fuermak branches cooperated to bring in additional ground units. Transport aircraft by the hundreds flew into the various military airfields throughout the satrapy laden with troops, who were then taken south by train. Some of their equipment also came by air, much of it by ship. The port cities were seeing a burgeoning additional demand for docking space. From all over Nicaro, personnel and material converged from several entry points toward what the Golden Throne knew as the Nicaroan Frontier — the international borders with the Ice States and Motokata.
Moving these forces and their equipment through southern Nicaro required secure supply lines, so the Limikari was unleashed on a hastily organized offensive. Against the village of San Rabatí, where good HUMINT warned of a significant rebel presence, two mechanized infantry battalions conducted a particularly efficient cordon-and-sweep. Without warning, an infantry company entered and started door-to-door searches of homes and businesses from one end of the town to the other while the cordon progressively tightened its perimeter. (It would later be found out that most of the rebel force had somehow slipped out through the cordon.) This was repeated through hundreds of villages and towns as the limikari applied pressure. If ground forces scoured southern Nicaro in search of militants, the air was crawling with helicopters, fixed-wing aircraft, but especially drones. Outside the border town of Luyucamaya, a drone was tasked with launching a cruise missile at the wedding of Guillermo Mendez, a known guerrilla operative leader who at the moment of his death out fishing with his two sons. All three of them were killed. The objective of this combined offensive was to overwhelm and constrain, to protect strategic road- and railways.
Across the streets of Managua, the locals walked around with their eyes on the ground. It seemed as if every corner was protected by two or three Macabéan soldiers. Many of these soldiers were Guffingfordi or from the Zeeland Prefecture in Theohuanacu, most were from the provinces and were themselves a varied group. Sarcanzans often looked and spoke differently to Frommians, likewise with Ruskans, Frumians, and Díenstadis. These soldiers were foreigners, they were occupiers. In the morning, the cafés were a little bit more empty than usual, as people preferred to drink coffee at home these days. And, at night, the city was dead, as a curfew was imposed from 1000 to 0600 — a curfew imposed on Managua and everywhere in the south.
In the towns and villages, the weekly markets were once again dead. They were banned, as all food and essentials were to be sold through militarily-sanctioned local vendors. The intent was to reduce the local sale of food to the guerrillas to starve the latter into giving themselves up. In the cities, where there were many more people and feeding them was a more complicated affair, this technique was less effective. But, the guerrillas rarely entered the big cities. Big cities were the domain of the empire, and the insurgency's home ground was the jungle.
All of this just meant that life was a little bit more drab than usual for the average Nicaroan in the south. They saw more imperial occupiers on the street and interacted with them a little bit more than average. The strict curfews were back. If you were out in the country, your home was liable to be raided. It was much like the first days of the occupation or 'liberation,' as the Macabéans liked to call it. 'Liberation' from civil war and Ordenite influence, according to the occupiers. Most Nicaroans didn't think much of it one way or another. They just wanted to make a living, put food on the table, and hopefully give their children a better life. If the empire could help them do that where their previous governments had failed, so be it. That didn't mean the Macabéans weren't occupiers and that didn't mean that the locals had to like the consequences of the military buildup in the south.
If all went according to plan, most of these new troops would be out of the way in a few weeks. They were the earmarked forward deployment into the Ice States in the event of a mutual defense pact being agreed to between the two countries.
Participants in the confict + known naval deployments.
'Samarasta' had delayed entry into the North Vanguat Sea for some days in order to allow the international situation to clarify. Between the agreement with TIS and the anticipation of talks with the FRCP, 'Samarasta' was finally cleared to enter the North Vanguat Sea and continue its journey to Eitoan. The fleet group did so by first moving in a screen of raid eskúadras deployed to provide an advance screening force, with the rest of the fleet group moving in behind it. As more of 'Samarasta's' assets moved into the North Vanguat, the picketts organized along the northern and northwestern screening layers were gradually strengthened with additional forces fanning out over the vast blue ocean. Although the decision to maintain battle order might send conflicting signals to governments like the FRCP's, the Kríermada considered this the wisest choice after the ambush of the Stevidian 5th Splinter Fleet by the supposed neutral Lyras almost a decade ago during the Great Díenstadi War. If all went according to plan and the situation between the FRCP and the Golden Throne continued to deescalate, 'Samarasta' would not be in the North Vanguat for long, anyway.
Eitoan was alerted of 'Samarastas' vector toward their country. Only a single carrier eskúadra was to dock in Eitoan for a brief three-day visit. Then, the kríergrup would be back on its journey south, west, then south again. The intention was to pass through the strait into the sea just south of the Great Inner Sea, where Kríergrup 'Potthan' had recently deployed in to close exit and entry into the Greater Inner Sea in case of a war. From there, 'Samarasta' would continue down south to the country from which it took its name.
Elsewhere, Kríergrup 'Beda Fromm' sailed into the sea just northwest of Deamonopolis, with the intention of guarding exit out of the Sea of Faith in case of a war. Kríergrup 'Targul Frumos,' far to the northeast, was to do the same in its area. 'Targul Frumos' was also taked with screening the southern perimeter of the Ordenite blockading force. To the north, between Nicaro and the imperial mainland, 'Nicaro' and 'Macabea' guarded the northern perimeter of the Ordenite blockading force. Although the Reich and the Golden Throne had so far avoided using the situation to escalate their own antagonism, the presence of a significant Ordenite fleet just off the coastline of the provinces was not exactly a source of comfort. Sensible, then, for the Kríermada to deploy significant assets to contain and isolate the Ordenites ships in case of a greater conflict.