What if China were to become different politically?

[West Bromwich Holme]

Inspired by this story about the FBI and MI5 saying China is a big game-changing threat to the West.

Hypothetically, what would it take for China to go from being a one-party socialist republic with heavily censored Internet and the notorious "Great Firewall", poor freedom of speech and freedom of the press, and become a country more like Italy or Poland (a unitary parliamentary republic) and a country with greater freedoms, essentially freeing itself of Communist party politics? I used those two countries as examples in general.

Sort of like how Poland was a former Communist country until 1989 when its first free elections were.

If, hypothetically, China did go to becoming a more free nation with no Communist party in power and actual elections, how could this change geopolitics? Would it be a good or bad thing?

I'm not an expert on geopolitics, this is a what-if situation.

[Neon Lunar Eclipse]

Perhaps China would be a more positive player in the global community and will also become a better place to live.

[Austria-Bohemia-Hungary]

All this would require a national revolution and more bloodshed than the Western world could stomach.

Meanwhile: Sweden should nationalise Volvo

[Tinhampton]

Hypothetically, what would it take for China to go from being a one-party socialist republic with heavily censored Internet and the notorious "Great Firewall", poor freedom of speech and freedom of the press, and become a country more like Italy or Poland (a unitary parliamentary republic) and a country with greater freedoms, essentially freeing itself of Communist party politics?

The international community recognising the Republic of China as the legitimate Chinese government.

[The Orwell Society]

Socialist? China is not true socialist, no where near it.

[Neon Lunar Eclipse]

Socialist? China is not true socialist, no where near it.

It is oppressive like socialist

[Austria-Bohemia-Hungary]

Socialist? China is not true socialist, no where near it.

It is oppressive like socialist

It's Fascist. Period.

[Rusozak]

If the CCP didn't exist and China wasn't ruled by a ethnofascist totalitarian regime, I'd be less concerned about the decline of American dominance. Hell, I'd welcome it.

[Vavlar]

A republic: Everyone would have their different candidates. However, in such a large country with a population that has a few million more than India, there would need to be a large government. And such government, is likely filled with corrupt or incompetent people. If China has around 1,448,471,400 people currently, and the US has 334,805,269 as of an UN estimate on June 1, 2022, with the US being corrupted in just 2 years and extremely polarized compared to 2018, Considering that the US would have around 1/4th of China's population and is heavily ineffective now, we would see a gridlock in China, but India is different as Modi is a popular political candidate and ~65% of India's economy is based off agriculture. We would see a republic that would have constant rebellions or riots, and eventually become corrupt, just like the way every Chinese dynasty had corrupt and non-corrupt people. And, it might depend upon who is elected, such as a nationalist or progressive. This doesn't even include other forms of rule.

[Washington Resistance Army]

It likely wouldn't change much in the grand scheme of things tbh. China would still be a great power seeking to assert itself against the west and secure its own independence and sphere of influence counter to ours.

[Luziyca]

I'm not sure if it'd change the fact that China is a great power, or at the very least a regional power in East Asia. While its internal politics would certainly be different, it is pretty much impossible to determine the outcomes: China could become a free and prosperous society, sure, but it could very well go down the same path as Russia: a nation whose best days are well behind it.

[Radiatia]

Well yeah I mean that would be ideal. The only problem I have with China is the atrocities, human rights abuses, genocide, censorship and aggression. If they didn't have that it would be an awesome place and I'd be quite happy having them becoming a dominant global power.

There'd also be a lot less controversy around issues like Taiwan, because you could just accept that the Republic of China (founded 1912) is the legitimate government of China and reunification would happen by lunchtime

[Picairn]

Are we certain that this new democracy would not be corrupted by nationalist and reactionary sentiments among the general populace? Considering the democratic backsliding in Poland, this is quite a large possibility.

[Emotional Support Crocodile]

A rival could be just like you, and still be a rival. That in itself would create pressure to diverge politically to differentiate from each other.

[Diuhon]

a democratic dual world order with china and the united states holding up their ends of the world is indeed more promising in terms of global stability and human rights, yes

[Christian Confederation]

A 1989 esc popular uprising/ revolution that Overthrows the CCP and a new Chinese Republic could be established. If an uprising started the west would have to suport it. The Republic of China currently in Taiwan could assist in the rebuild and if the Mainland population so choose could act as the groundwork for a new Republic of China.

[Great Heathen Air Force]

I think that if you ask a vague question, you can't expect to get more than a vague answer.

"China would then be different politically."

Many things would change, most things would not. China's national interests would remain their national interests, so don't expect a huge shift geopolitically. Beyond that it's hard to say. Realistically this could cause anything from an immediate return to single-party nationalist authoritarianism, to the total collapse of the Chinese state. Depending on a lot of details that we don't have.

[Riviere Renard]

I think any transition to a Liberal Democracy is unlikely, but if it did happen, I think a Chinese Mikhail Gorbachev scenario is the most likely. A revolution is possible, but unlikely to occur and less likely to be successful. I imagine a relatively young, progressive, idealistic politician, through luck or skill, becomes the leader upon the death of Xi (or his successor), and gradually over a decade or so, China experiments with elements of a Democratic Republic and Social Democracy. Eventually, one of two things would happen: either the elements of Democracy gives people a say, but the remaining elements of dictatorship breeds resentment, resulting in instability and a Soviet Union style collapse; or the politician and their supporters create a new constitution, similar to a fully Democratic Republic (IE. USA, UK) and a proper free and fair election is called, followed by the disillusion of any and all remaining authoritarian policies of the previous dictatorship.

Regardless of how it came to be, a Liberal Democratic government in China would mean a massive change in geopolitics. While elements of an economic rivalry would remain, a proper cold-war style rivalry between the US and China would be unlikely. I do think there would remain a lot of tension, as even a Democratic China would continue to attempt to gain influence in foreign regions and continents, but the two nations would likely look relatively amicable at each other. That is, unless Trump regained power, in which case, he would likely view the new Chinese government as a threat. It is possible that, through the democratic backsliding we already see from Trump and his party, that the two sides would flip; China would become the leader of international democracy and freedom, while the US becomes a dictatorship or pseudo-dictatorship promoting authoritarianism internationally. That would be funny, if nothing else.

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Pronouns: Any at time of posting

[PhilTech]

Very vague hypothetical but I'll reckon whatever that "political ideology" might be, both their national and international interests will remain the same.

[Informed Consent]

Not likely to ever see a truly representative government in China.
Throughout its vast and impressive history, one characteristic remains consistent among its power brokers that shows little sign of ever changing regardless of the constitution of their power.
An extreme need and desire for order and to order, to place, to prioritize, to label, and manage that has dwarfed most people's concepts of human social engineering for millenia.

[The Jamesian Republic]

I would love to see Sun Yat Sen’s Three Principles of The People become a reality in mainland China and not be hijacked by power hungry fascists in disguise

*Glares Angrily at Chiang Kai Shek*

[Hispida]

china needs a new mao!!!

[Austria-Bohemia-Hungary]

china needs a new mao!!!

No. This is such a shit take that it earned you no points, and may God have mercy on your soul.

[The Jamesian Republic]

china needs a new mao!!!

China needs a new Sun Yat Sen!!!

[Krasny-Volny]

Inspired by this story about the FBI and MI5 saying China is a big game-changing threat to the West.

Hypothetically, what would it take for China to go from being a one-party socialist republic with heavily censored Internet and the notorious "Great Firewall", poor freedom of speech and freedom of the press, and become a country more like Italy or Poland (a unitary parliamentary republic) and a country with greater freedoms, essentially freeing itself of Communist party politics? I used those two countries as examples in general.

Sort of like how Poland was a former Communist country until 1989 when its first free elections were.

If, hypothetically, China did go to becoming a more free nation with no Communist party in power and actual elections, how could this change geopolitics? Would it be a good or bad thing?

I'm not an expert on geopolitics, this is a what-if situation.

Like Taiwan/ROC, Japan, and South Korea. Major cleanup in the human rights record, and even more accelerated industrialization and social mobility compared to what they have now. Strong worker protections like in Taiwan, prohibiting mandatory overtime, while enforcing fixed working hours and mandatory time off.

Major reductions in defense spending. The defense sector becomes focused on the modest dictates of self-defense rather than arming a ridiculously bloated military and paramilitary industrial complex. In addition to fueling hundreds of violent conflicts around the world.

Better relationship with all its neighbors as well.