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chances of a legendary

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Elvatoes
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Founded: Jul 13, 2021
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chances of a legendary

Postby Elvatoes » Tue May 24, 2022 2:52 am

what are the chances of getting a legendary card from a pack?
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The Orwell Society
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Founded: Apr 16, 2022
Psychotic Dictatorship

Postby The Orwell Society » Tue May 24, 2022 9:51 am

I have only received five in all my months of playing, and I have been playing since October of last year.
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Neo Mida Gals
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Postby Neo Mida Gals » Tue May 24, 2022 9:54 am

Since i Joined the game i only received two legendary cards

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Neo Mida Gals
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Founded: Oct 08, 2021
Father Knows Best State

Postby Neo Mida Gals » Tue May 24, 2022 9:58 am

The Orwell Society wrote:I have only received five in all my months of playing, and I have been playing since October of last year.

And i since July and received only two:/

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Bormiar
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Founded: Mar 25, 2019
Ex-Nation

Postby Bormiar » Tue May 24, 2022 10:01 am

There's an equal chance of every card. At least that's how it used to be.

So if there's 169 legendary cards, and about 170k S2 cards. That's a 0.0994% chance; i.e. about 1 / 1000 cards. Or 1 / 200 packs opened. Or 1 / 1000 issues answered.

This isn't accounting for CTE cards, which are rarer. So this is a low bound on the chance.
Last edited by Bormiar on Tue May 24, 2022 10:02 am, edited 1 time in total.

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Sotoak
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Founded: May 03, 2022
Democratic Socialists

Postby Sotoak » Tue May 24, 2022 10:02 am

Bormiar wrote:There's an equal chance of every card. At least that's how it used to be.

So if there's 169 legendary cards, and about 170k S2 cards. That's a 0.0994% chance.

Which means you have to make 1006 attempts

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Bormiar
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Founded: Mar 25, 2019
Ex-Nation

Postby Bormiar » Tue May 24, 2022 10:03 am

Sotoak wrote:
Bormiar wrote:There's an equal chance of every card. At least that's how it used to be.

So if there's 169 legendary cards, and about 170k S2 cards. That's a 0.0994% chance.

Which means you have to make 1006 attempts

I just edited my post. That's a low bound because of CTE cards. But also a high bound because S1 spawns take a bit. I'd say overall, the chance I provided is lower than the actual spawn rate.

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Czardas
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Founded: Feb 25, 2005
Civil Rights Lovefest

Postby Czardas » Tue May 24, 2022 10:18 am

I currently have 47 accounts and have been collecting cards for a month, so that’s approximately 30 x 4 x 47 x 0.2 packs. Out of those ~1,128 card packs (note: I have not actually counted the number of packs), I’ve found 17 legendaries, 12 season one packs, 8 high-value (>50 MV) CTE common cards. For an idea of approximate rarity, that’s 0.3%, 1.1% and 0.1% of cards, respectively. I have no idea if my experience is typical.

Obviously there are no guarantees for anything; the first card pack I ever opened contained a legendary card, for example. But again, with 47 accounts, it’s probably to be expected to find a legendary card every few days. Whenever card acquisition gets decoupled from issue answering that’s likely to change and we’ll be closer to parity.
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Incredible Bums
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Founded: Mar 11, 2011
Democratic Socialists

Postby Incredible Bums » Tue May 24, 2022 10:37 am

Czardas wrote: Whenever card acquisition gets decoupled from issue answering that’s likely to change and we’ll be closer to parity.

This will be the moment when I leave this game. As if all the abusement of loopholes, cardinflation, card-farms of thousands of puppets with actually no restriction and more wouldn´t be enough. Maybe I should remind, that the game is called Nationstates (answering issues is a vital and fundamental part of managing a nation in this game)), and the cardgame was just an Aprils fools joke and still is only a subgame...

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Czardas
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Founded: Feb 25, 2005
Civil Rights Lovefest

Postby Czardas » Tue May 24, 2022 11:13 am

Decoupling cards from issues will actually potentially reduce people’s ability to use puppets to farm cards, depending on how it’s done (I can think of a few ways that would make it possible to remove puppet farming, without the need for any major changes to how the game works). But I have no idea what will be done about inflation and the various loopholes (e.g. ability to buy new cards when your deck is full), or if these are even considered problems in need of addressing.
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The Hurricane
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Founded: Mar 02, 2022
Inoffensive Centrist Democracy

Postby The Hurricane » Tue May 24, 2022 11:18 am

I answered 300+ issues and only got 1.
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Belarusball
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Founded: Mar 10, 2022
Democratic Socialists

Postby Belarusball » Tue May 24, 2022 11:23 am

I've gotten 2 so far, (not including gifts and buys), and both of them were from my card farming puppets.

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Fauzjhia
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Founded: Jul 29, 2014
Left-wing Utopia

Postby Fauzjhia » Tue May 24, 2022 1:01 pm

let's see


we have 168077 cards in total and 169 legendaries, of which only 146 are represent alive nations,

we apparently have 110 379 cards that represent CTE nations

so from what I known normally, the cards are always taken from the 57698 nations that are alive
however, in 10% of the case, nations are taken in all cards that exist, rather just those who exist.

so 0,90 * ( 146/57698) (0,2 %)
+ 0.1 * ( 169/168 077)) 0.01%

we multiple this score by 5, because every pack has 5 cards and BOOM

we come at 1% chance of getting a legendary in a pack.
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