NATION

PASSWORD

Hezbollah loses Lebanese majority

For discussion and debate about anything. (Not a roleplay related forum; out-of-character commentary only.)
User avatar
Hispida
Negotiator
 
Posts: 5105
Founded: Jun 21, 2021
Anarchy

Hezbollah loses Lebanese majority

Postby Hispida » Tue May 17, 2022 12:47 pm

Source.

The Iran-backed Shia Muslim Hezbollah movement and its allies have lost their majority in Lebanon's parliament, results from Sunday's election show.

The bloc's candidates won 62 of the 128 seats, three fewer than it needed.

Hezbollah retained its own seats, but President Michel Aoun's Christian Free Patriotic Movement lost support.

A rival Christian party with close ties to Saudi Arabia, the Lebanese Forces, made gains and independent candidates promising reforms won 13 seats.

But the lack of an outright winner and Lebanon's rigid power-sharing political structure means that the chance of significant change is still low.

The election was the first held since a 2019 nationwide uprising against a political elite widely seen as corrupt and ineffective.

The mass protests were sparked by the start of one of the worst economic depressions the world has seen in more than 150 years. An estimated 80% of Lebanon's population now live in poverty, and there have been severe shortages of food, fuel and medicines.

The country's problems have been compounded by the coronavirus pandemic and a devastating explosion at Beirut's port in 2020, which killed more than 200 people. The investigation into who was responsible has stalled repeatedly, as politicians failed to give evidence.

The Hezbollah-led bloc in parliament - including the Free Patriotic Movement (FPM) and the Shia Amal movement of Speaker Nabih Berri - had 71 seats in the last election in 2018.

Hezbollah and Amal's candidates held on to the 27 seats allocated to Shia Muslims in Sunday's vote, but many longtime allies suffered surprise defeats.

According to the L'Orient Today news site, the FPM won 17 seats, down from 20 in the outgoing parliament, while the Lebanese Forces (LF) won 19, up from 15, making it the biggest Christian party.

The LF is led by Samir Geagea, who was one of the most feared warlords during the 1975-90 civil war and is a fierce critic of Hezbollah's military power. He has said Lebanon needs a "radical change in power" to solve its problems.

The BBC's Anna Foster in Beirut says the LF's gains might have an impact on the election by MPs later this year of a new president, who has to be a Christian under the sectarian power-sharing system.

The victories of independent candidates and non-aligned parties were also significant, our correspondent adds.

In the central Aley district, the Hezbollah-allied Druze politician Talal Arslan was defeated by the Taqaddom party's Marc Daou, who ran on a reform agenda.

And in the south - a stronghold of Hezbollah - Elias Jradi of the Together Towards Change list, won an Orthodox Christian seat from Assaad Hardan, leader of the Hezbollah-allied Syrian Socialist Nationalist Party.

Prime Minister Najib Mikati urged the newly elected MPs to quickly agree on the make-up of new government, which he hopes to lead, "because what we are passing through cannot withstand bickering at the expense of priorities".

Its priorities will be negotiating an rescue package with the International Monetary Fund and drafting laws to help spark an economic recovery.
Our correspondent says Hezbollah will still be hugely influential in the new parliament, but that it might need to do more negotiating and make more compromises to get its own way.

Much of the militant group's power comes from outside the political system anyway, she adds, and not much will change in the day-to-day lives of the people living in its strongholds.


So... what are we thinking here?

If you want my opinion, this shows that Saudi Arabia is finally beginning to "win" the Middle Eastern Cold War. If Lebanon slips from Iran's grasp in the next election cycle or maybe through civil resistance in Lebanon then there's a chance that Iraq could be next, although that would be a long ways away. If Hezbollah support continues to dip in Lebanon then it could be a sign of shifting tides not just in Lebanon but also in Israel and Syria, the two countries that Lebanon borders.

Anyways, NSG; what are your thoughts?
Thank you, Technoblade.
i now have a basic overview factbook
christian, marxist-leninist, ace/aro demiboy. he/they
"Like a blind puppy sniffing at random first in one direction and then in another"
"Mr. 'Muddleheaded Counsellor'!"
"It sounds just like he were chewing rags in his sleep!"
"Thanks to such a fraud"
"he utterly fails to understand"
"This windbag"
"inevitably proves to be a lackey of the bourgeoisie"
"Kautsky has beaten the world record in the liberal distortion of Marx"
Victory Day: February 23, 2022
free our man south reinkalistan!!!

User avatar
Barlyy
Spokesperson
 
Posts: 197
Founded: Jun 25, 2020
Democratic Socialists

Postby Barlyy » Tue May 17, 2022 12:53 pm

Finally, some good news. Of course, the Saudis are no angels, but as long as Hezbollah's influence continues to plummet, it's good for Turkey.
Barlyy

Former #47 in International Artwork
Former Prime Minister, Lieutenant Prime Minister & MoFA of Callista
Former [insert irrelevant position here]

User avatar
Arvenia
Postmaster-General
 
Posts: 12590
Founded: Aug 21, 2014
Father Knows Best State

Postby Arvenia » Tue May 17, 2022 12:57 pm

I fear another Lebanese Civil War would break out if Hezbollah loses support and maybe resorts to violence again.
Last edited by Arvenia on Tue May 17, 2022 12:57 pm, edited 1 time in total.
Pro: Political Pluralism, Centrism, Liberalism, Liberal Democracy, Social Democracy, Sweden, USA, UN, ROC, Japan, South Korea, Monarchism, Republicanism, Sci-Fi, Animal Rights, Gender Equality, Mecha, Autism, Environmentalism, Secularism, Religion and LGBT Rights
Anti: Racism, Sexism, Nazism, Fascism, EU, Socialism, Adolf Hitler, Neo-Nazism, KKK, Joseph Stalin, PRC, North Korea, Russia, Iran, Saudi-Arabia, Communism, Ultraconservatism, Ultranationalism, Xenophobia, Homophobia, Transphobia, WBC, Satanism, Mormonism, Anarchy, ISIS, al-Qaeda, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, 969 Movement, Political Correctness, Anti-Autistic Sentiment, Far-Right, Far-Left, Cultural Relativism, Anti-Vaxxers, Scalpers and COVID-19

User avatar
Czardas
Retired Moderator
 
Posts: 6889
Founded: Feb 25, 2005
Civil Rights Lovefest

Postby Czardas » Tue May 17, 2022 2:36 pm

Disappointing but unsurprising news from the POV of Axis of Resistance supporters. (In fact it’s more surprising that the Hezbollah/Amal bloc held onto as many seats as they did; evidently the propaganda hasn’t taken full effect.) The Americans and their proxies are, at this point, simply more dedicated, more bloodthirsty and more cruel than anyone else—while maintaining a similar level of discipline to what resistance supporters could have had if they weren’t constantly undermined by American/Saudi/Israeli/etc violence and economic warfare—and therefore are likely to win almost every battle for the foreseeable future. But Hezbollah will stick around and when the next large-scale movement arises, perhaps in Palestine once Abbas is finally removed from power and perhaps somewhere completely different, it’ll still be here to help lead and direct the resistance forces. (Or I mean, maybe the Saudis will decide it’s time to arrange a new “Lebanese Civil War” to exterminate Hezbollah and the world will sink further towards an American boot stomping on a human face forever. Who knows.)

For opponents of the Axis of Resistance (I.e., almost everyone on this forum) this is good news and you guys should probably be happy or something, idk.
30 | she/her | USA | ✡︎ | ☭ | ♫

I have devised a truly marvelous signature, which this textblock is too small to contain

User avatar
The Jamesian Republic
Powerbroker
 
Posts: 9994
Founded: Apr 28, 2020
Civil Rights Lovefest

Postby The Jamesian Republic » Tue May 17, 2022 2:41 pm

So does this mean Hezbollah will no longer be a political force in Lebanon? Or at least not in the government?

User avatar
Hispida
Negotiator
 
Posts: 5105
Founded: Jun 21, 2021
Anarchy

Postby Hispida » Tue May 17, 2022 2:42 pm

The Jamesian Republic wrote:So does this mean Hezbollah will no longer be a political force in Lebanon? Or at least not in the government?

they're only a few seats off from the majority, they still have a sizable plurality; about 48% of parliament is controlled by hezbollah but it's been known for years they're losing influence
Last edited by Hispida on Tue May 17, 2022 2:42 pm, edited 1 time in total.
Thank you, Technoblade.
i now have a basic overview factbook
christian, marxist-leninist, ace/aro demiboy. he/they
"Like a blind puppy sniffing at random first in one direction and then in another"
"Mr. 'Muddleheaded Counsellor'!"
"It sounds just like he were chewing rags in his sleep!"
"Thanks to such a fraud"
"he utterly fails to understand"
"This windbag"
"inevitably proves to be a lackey of the bourgeoisie"
"Kautsky has beaten the world record in the liberal distortion of Marx"
Victory Day: February 23, 2022
free our man south reinkalistan!!!

User avatar
Czardas
Retired Moderator
 
Posts: 6889
Founded: Feb 25, 2005
Civil Rights Lovefest

Postby Czardas » Tue May 17, 2022 2:45 pm

The Jamesian Republic wrote:So does this mean Hezbollah will no longer be a political force in Lebanon? Or at least not in the government?

Still around. Probably will still be part of the government via some kind of coalition agreement (there’s pretty limited room for how those can work under the power-sharing rules). But evidently losing influence, allies and support, and at a time when its dedicated supporters generally believe it’s more necessary than ever.
30 | she/her | USA | ✡︎ | ☭ | ♫

I have devised a truly marvelous signature, which this textblock is too small to contain

User avatar
The Jamesian Republic
Powerbroker
 
Posts: 9994
Founded: Apr 28, 2020
Civil Rights Lovefest

Postby The Jamesian Republic » Tue May 17, 2022 2:48 pm

Hispida wrote:
The Jamesian Republic wrote:So does this mean Hezbollah will no longer be a political force in Lebanon? Or at least not in the government?

they're only a few seats off from the majority, they still have a sizable plurality; about 48% of parliament is controlled by hezbollah but it's been known for years they're losing influence


I see.

So what will happen to Lebanon then?

User avatar
Meadowfields
Diplomat
 
Posts: 890
Founded: Jun 16, 2021
Left-wing Utopia

Postby Meadowfields » Tue May 17, 2022 2:51 pm

It's not just Hezbollah lol. Hezbollah is only the third largest party in its bloc, the other two are the Free Patriotic Movement and Amal Movement.
The Republic of Meadowfields
Nous nous relèverons des larmes du passé
Overview | Politics | Religion | Trivia
News ✉ | Disappearances and faceless bodies along the Meadowfieldian-Kyurtese border linked to wanted serial killer who escaped prison in 2004; death toll at around 450 | Historic castle in Ordieaucourt destroyed after large thunderstorm | High Council of Fascist Bourlounge votes against motion to surrender to Bugaria, calls for citizens to take arms | Plane carrying 458 refugees from Ashbrid freeze crashes after takeoff due to engine freeze, 342 passengers and all crew dead | Weather ☀ | Meadowfields City ☔ -6°/-9°C | Ashbrid ❄ -76°/-84°C | Teshig ⛅ 20°/13°C | Goofariask ☀ 3°/-5°C | Orkhusgol ⛅ 17°/11°C |
Proud degenerate leftist
Feeling better today :)
Won't tell you my age or other details, cope

User avatar
Hispida
Negotiator
 
Posts: 5105
Founded: Jun 21, 2021
Anarchy

Postby Hispida » Tue May 17, 2022 2:51 pm

The Jamesian Republic wrote:
Hispida wrote:they're only a few seats off from the majority, they still have a sizable plurality; about 48% of parliament is controlled by hezbollah but it's been known for years they're losing influence


I see.

So what will happen to Lebanon then?

i assume hezbollah will continue to lose political relevance, but the next government will probably be a coalition between hezbollah and maybe the LF because IIRC the next lebanese president has to be a christian
Thank you, Technoblade.
i now have a basic overview factbook
christian, marxist-leninist, ace/aro demiboy. he/they
"Like a blind puppy sniffing at random first in one direction and then in another"
"Mr. 'Muddleheaded Counsellor'!"
"It sounds just like he were chewing rags in his sleep!"
"Thanks to such a fraud"
"he utterly fails to understand"
"This windbag"
"inevitably proves to be a lackey of the bourgeoisie"
"Kautsky has beaten the world record in the liberal distortion of Marx"
Victory Day: February 23, 2022
free our man south reinkalistan!!!

User avatar
The Jamesian Republic
Powerbroker
 
Posts: 9994
Founded: Apr 28, 2020
Civil Rights Lovefest

Postby The Jamesian Republic » Tue May 17, 2022 2:52 pm

Hispida wrote:
The Jamesian Republic wrote:
I see.

So what will happen to Lebanon then?

i assume hezbollah will continue to lose political relevance, but the next government will probably be a coalition between hezbollah and maybe the LF because IIRC the next lebanese president has to be a christian


The next president has to be Christian?

User avatar
Hispida
Negotiator
 
Posts: 5105
Founded: Jun 21, 2021
Anarchy

Postby Hispida » Tue May 17, 2022 2:55 pm

The Jamesian Republic wrote:
Hispida wrote:i assume hezbollah will continue to lose political relevance, but the next government will probably be a coalition between hezbollah and maybe the LF because IIRC the next lebanese president has to be a christian


The next president has to be Christian?

no, looks like i was mistaken. half the seats in parliament are dedicated to christian parties however
Thank you, Technoblade.
i now have a basic overview factbook
christian, marxist-leninist, ace/aro demiboy. he/they
"Like a blind puppy sniffing at random first in one direction and then in another"
"Mr. 'Muddleheaded Counsellor'!"
"It sounds just like he were chewing rags in his sleep!"
"Thanks to such a fraud"
"he utterly fails to understand"
"This windbag"
"inevitably proves to be a lackey of the bourgeoisie"
"Kautsky has beaten the world record in the liberal distortion of Marx"
Victory Day: February 23, 2022
free our man south reinkalistan!!!

User avatar
The Jamesian Republic
Powerbroker
 
Posts: 9994
Founded: Apr 28, 2020
Civil Rights Lovefest

Postby The Jamesian Republic » Tue May 17, 2022 2:56 pm

Hispida wrote:
The Jamesian Republic wrote:
The next president has to be Christian?

no, looks like i was mistaken. half the seats in parliament are dedicated to christian parties however


Oh.

User avatar
Arumdaum
Postmaster of the Fleet
 
Posts: 24528
Founded: Oct 21, 2009
Left-wing Utopia

Postby Arumdaum » Wed May 18, 2022 6:33 pm

The Jamesian Republic wrote:
Hispida wrote:i assume hezbollah will continue to lose political relevance, but the next government will probably be a coalition between hezbollah and maybe the LF because IIRC the next lebanese president has to be a christian


The next president has to be Christian?

Not next president, every president.

Lebanon has a system of government that divides power among different religious groups based on the size of their population

when they made the system,
Christians were largest, so president is always Christian
Sunni Muslims were second largest, so Prime Minister is always Sunni
Shia Muslims were third largest, so Speak of the Parliament is always Shia

Because of this holding a census is extremely controversial there lol

Today all groups are around 31-32% of the population

Unfortunately for Shias being Speaker of Parliament gives little power, so they were kinda screwed and were always locked out of power until Hezbollah came along

this is simplified version anyway
Last edited by Arumdaum on Wed May 18, 2022 6:34 pm, edited 1 time in total.
LITERALLY UNLIKE ANY OTHER RP REGION & DON'T REPORT THIS SIG
█████████████████▌TIANDI ____________██____██
_______███▌MAP _______________██_____██_████████
█████████████████▌WIKI _______██______██___██____██
_______████ DISCORD ________██████___██____██______█

____████__████ SIGNUP _________██___████___██____
__████_______████_____________██______██__________██
████____________████_______█████████___███████████

User avatar
Thermodolia
Khan of Spam
 
Posts: 72366
Founded: Oct 07, 2011
New York Times Democracy

Postby Thermodolia » Wed May 18, 2022 6:46 pm

The Lebanese Forces is a also has strong ties to not only KSA but Israel and the USA
Male, State Socialist, Cultural Nationalist, Welfare Chauvinist lives somewhere in AZ I'm GAY! Disabled US Military Veteran
I'm agent #69 in the Gaystapo!
>The Sons of Adam: I'd crown myself monarch... cuz why not?
>>Dumb Ideologies: Why not turn yourself into a penguin and build an igloo at the centre of the Earth?
>Xovland: I keep getting ads for printer ink. Sometimes, when you get that feeling down there, you have to look at some steamy printer pictures.
Click for Da Funies

RIP Dya

User avatar
Free Algerstonia
Ambassador
 
Posts: 1081
Founded: Jan 16, 2022
Psychotic Dictatorship

Postby Free Algerstonia » Wed May 18, 2022 7:38 pm

american neocolonialism at work once again
Santheres wrote:Handled with the big D

User avatar
Evil Wolf
Minister
 
Posts: 2271
Founded: Apr 28, 2005
Father Knows Best State

Postby Evil Wolf » Thu May 19, 2022 1:21 pm

Free Algerstonia wrote:american neocolonialism at work once again


So Lebanon has the choice of being an Iranian puppet via keeping Hezbollah in power or being an "American Neo-colony" via voting for...anyone who isn't Hezbollah, apparently.

Does Lebanon have no right to self-determination, or is that concept an American plot as well?
Last edited by Evil Wolf on Thu May 19, 2022 1:23 pm, edited 1 time in total.
It's ok! You can trust me! I've been Commended!

Kryozerkia wrote:In the good old days raiding was illegal
Crazy Girl wrote:Invading was never illegal
[violet] wrote:There is supposed to be an invasion game.

Mallorea and Riva should be a Game Moderator Game Administrator.

User avatar
Seragor
Lobbyist
 
Posts: 17
Founded: Apr 24, 2022
Corrupt Dictatorship

Postby Seragor » Fri May 20, 2022 6:05 am

Unsurprising, yet unfortunate nonetheless.
Last edited by Seragor on Fri May 20, 2022 6:05 am, edited 1 time in total.
SERAGORN PEOPLE'S REPUBLIC
Economic Left/Right: -10.0, Social Libertarian/Authoritarian: 2.87
Slava Rossii i Donbassu; Without the Communist Party, There Would Be No New China; From the River to the Sea, Palestine will be free!
Support: AES, Communism, Juche, Left-wing Nationalism, LGBT Rights, Marxism-Leninism, Secularism, Socialism with Chinese Characteristics

Oppose: Anarchism, Capitalism, Liberalism, Libertarianism, Fascism, Maoism/Gonzaloites, Monarchy, Nazism, Zionism

User avatar
Page
Post Marshal
 
Posts: 16215
Founded: Jan 12, 2012
Civil Rights Lovefest

Postby Page » Fri May 20, 2022 6:11 am

I gotta admit I'm pretty ignorant as far as Lebanese politics go. But I guess they got a lot of Christian factions and a lot of Muslim factions who sometimes work together? If there are Shia, Sunni, and Christians which two usually gang up on the other?
I am an internationalist, geolibertarian anarcho-futurist with syncretic egoist and Marxist tendencies. I consider authoritarianism to be intrinsically and irrevocably evil regardless of the authoritarians' intentions or economic inclinations. I do not recognize any law, government, border, or claim to private property.

I don't believe in kink-shaming unless your kink is submitting to the state.

Protect yourself from Covid-19: Stop licking boots.

User avatar
Islamic Holy Sites
Negotiator
 
Posts: 6678
Founded: Mar 20, 2021
Democratic Socialists

Postby Islamic Holy Sites » Fri May 20, 2022 6:13 am

Page wrote:I gotta admit I'm pretty ignorant as far as Lebanese politics go. But I guess they got a lot of Christian factions and a lot of Muslim factions who sometimes work together? If there are Shia, Sunni, and Christians which two usually gang up on the other?

They all distrust each other, but I think, correct me if I’m wrong, that the Christians and Sunnis do so less than with the Shia
#FreeNSGRojava!
FREEDOM, DEMOCRACY, ISLAM
FREE PALESTINE
STAND WITH THE UKRAINIAN PEOPLE
Call me Muqaddasia.
Proud member of the GCN. Host nation of SETZA. Founder/Co-founder of the (now defunct) IDSF Founder/Co-founder and first in command of the (now defunct) UCA. Founder of the (now defunct) ICRD.
BREAKING NEWS: Galapagos war 4 might be coming | “Aursi among best Muqaddasi allies,”, says government official | Muqaddasi weapon industry expanding WIP

User avatar
Sungoldy-China
Diplomat
 
Posts: 525
Founded: Aug 15, 2020
Psychotic Dictatorship

Postby Sungoldy-China » Fri May 20, 2022 11:31 am

Lebanon's democracy is a collection of stupidity, inefficiency, and incompetence, and it's hard to imagine that anyone could create a political system like that.
The fate of this country is doomed from the moment such a system is chosen, I suggest inviting France to return and restore the its governorship
Last edited by Sungoldy-China on Fri May 20, 2022 11:32 am, edited 1 time in total.
every religious idea and every idea of God is unutterable vileness ... of the most dangerous kind, 'contagion' of the most abominable kind
"every religious idea and every idea of God is unutterable vileness ... of the most dangerous kind, 'contagion' of the most abominable kind. Millions of sins, filthy deeds, acts of violence and physical contagions ... are far less dangerous than the subtle, spiritual idea of God decked out in the smartest ideological costumes ..."

User avatar
Heloin
Postmaster of the Fleet
 
Posts: 24908
Founded: Mar 30, 2012
Democratic Socialists

Postby Heloin » Fri May 20, 2022 2:35 pm

Page wrote:I gotta admit I'm pretty ignorant as far as Lebanese politics go. But I guess they got a lot of Christian factions and a lot of Muslim factions who sometimes work together? If there are Shia, Sunni, and Christians which two usually gang up on the other?

Depends on the day of the week and what the upcoming holiday is.
Honkbal Hoofdklasse on my radio tonight, I hear the team announcements and I know the time is right
And I know I mustn't say it though I feel it in the air, a home run for Rotterdam's Dirk van Beer!


Proudly Zimbabwean | Industrial Workers of the World | Armenian Red Cross | Help Gaza's Children
Harmless Historical Nut | Space Pirate | Nana's Attic Rabbit DJ

User avatar
Thermodolia
Khan of Spam
 
Posts: 72366
Founded: Oct 07, 2011
New York Times Democracy

Postby Thermodolia » Fri May 20, 2022 2:49 pm

Sungoldy-China wrote:Lebanon's democracy is a collection of stupidity, inefficiency, and incompetence, and it's hard to imagine that anyone could create a political system like that.
The fate of this country is doomed from the moment such a system is chosen, I suggest inviting France to return and restore the its governorship

Interestingly a good bit of Lebanese people want the French back
Male, State Socialist, Cultural Nationalist, Welfare Chauvinist lives somewhere in AZ I'm GAY! Disabled US Military Veteran
I'm agent #69 in the Gaystapo!
>The Sons of Adam: I'd crown myself monarch... cuz why not?
>>Dumb Ideologies: Why not turn yourself into a penguin and build an igloo at the centre of the Earth?
>Xovland: I keep getting ads for printer ink. Sometimes, when you get that feeling down there, you have to look at some steamy printer pictures.
Click for Da Funies

RIP Dya

User avatar
Hukhalia
Ambassador
 
Posts: 1254
Founded: Aug 31, 2021
Ex-Nation

Postby Hukhalia » Fri May 20, 2022 2:50 pm

Barlyy wrote:Finally, some good news. Of course, the Saudis are no angels, but as long as Hezbollah's influence continues to plummet, it's good for Turkey.

The Turks are far from angels as well.
"It was this alone that drew so many Europeans to colonial North America: the dream in the settler mind of each man becoming a petty lord of his own land. Thus, the tradition of individualism and egalitarianism in America was rooted in the poisoned concept of equal privileges for a new nation of European conquerors." J. Sakai

an advocate of total warfare against heterosexual society, any/all


Advertisement

Remove ads

Return to General

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: Andoros, Armeattla, Duvniask, Emotional Support Crocodile, Kerwa, Kragholm Free States, Picairn, Port Caverton, Yasuragi

Advertisement

Remove ads