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Russo-Ukrainian War impending?

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The nation of major poo
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Russo-Ukrainian War impending?

Postby The nation of major poo » Wed Nov 24, 2021 9:32 pm

https://www.militarytimes.com/flashpoin ... ncy-chief/

Russia has more than 92,000 troops amassed around Ukraine’s borders and is preparing for an attack by the end of January or beginning of February, the head of Ukraine’s defense intelligence agency told Military Times.

Such an attack would likely involve airstrikes, artillery and armor attacks followed by airborne assaults in the east, amphibious assaults in Odessa and Mariupul and a smaller incursion through neighboring Belarus, Ukraine Brig. Gen. Kyrylo Budanov told Military Times Saturday morning in an exclusive interview.

Russia’s large-scale Zapad 21 military exercise earlier this year proved, for instance, that they can drop upwards of 3,500 airborne and special operations troops at once, he said.

The attack Russia is preparing, said Budanov, would be far more devastating than anything before seen in the conflict that began in 2014 that has seen some 14,000 Ukrainians killed.

Speaking to the Washington Post on Friday, Ukraine’s new Defense Minister Oleksii Reznikov said it was unclear whether Russian President Vladimir Putin has yet decided to attack.

But Russia is building capacity to do so, Budanov told Military Times, increasing troop levels and weapons systems in occupied Crimea and staging systems like Iskandar short-range ballistic missile systems and other weapons elsewhere near the border. And he scoffed at suggestions that the brutal weather conditions during that time of the year would dissuade the Russians from attacking.

“It is no problem for us and the Russians,” Budanov said of fighting in the frigid weather.

Any such attack, however, would first follow a series of psychological operations currently underway designed to destabilize Ukraine and undermine its ability to fight, said Budanov, speaking through an interpreter.


It seems a conflict between Ukraine and Russia is on the horizon. What do you think NSG? Will the USA and NATO get involved? Can Ukraine withstand a Russian invasion? Could Russia attack even earlier than thought? Discuss

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Untecna
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Postby Untecna » Wed Nov 24, 2021 9:35 pm

Based on what happened a few months ago, I place a stronger bet on it just being a propaganda move of some sort, in order to boost popularity ratings for Putin.
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Antipatros
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Postby Antipatros » Wed Nov 24, 2021 9:38 pm

Untecna wrote:Based on what happened a few months ago, I place a stronger bet on it just being a propaganda move of some sort, in order to boost popularity ratings for Putin.

I'd concur with this.

If Russia carried out a full scale invasion of Ukraine, they would steamroll the Ukrainians. NATO/the West would not get openly involved, militarily. More likely than not, there would be another round of economic sanctions on Russia. The Western debate over defence spending and the role of NATO would be brought into focus.

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Untecna
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Postby Untecna » Wed Nov 24, 2021 9:40 pm

Antipatros wrote:
Untecna wrote:Based on what happened a few months ago, I place a stronger bet on it just being a propaganda move of some sort, in order to boost popularity ratings for Putin.

I'd concur with this.

If Russia carried out a full scale invasion of Ukraine, they would steamroll the Ukrainians. NATO/the West would not get openly involved, militarily. More likely than not, there would be another round of economic sanctions on Russia. The Western debate over defence spending and the role of NATO would be brought into focus.

The issue with sanctions is that while they are a quick strategy they do not really work as an effective deterrent, at least for nations like Russia.
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Antipatros
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Postby Antipatros » Wed Nov 24, 2021 9:50 pm

Untecna wrote:
Antipatros wrote:I'd concur with this.

If Russia carried out a full scale invasion of Ukraine, they would steamroll the Ukrainians. NATO/the West would not get openly involved, militarily. More likely than not, there would be another round of economic sanctions on Russia. The Western debate over defence spending and the role of NATO would be brought into focus.

The issue with sanctions is that while they are a quick strategy they do not really work as an effective deterrent, at least for nations like Russia.

I've read a few pieces which criticized US foreign policy as relying too much on economic sanctions in recent years. I'd have to say that I basically agree with them.

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Untecna
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Postby Untecna » Wed Nov 24, 2021 9:52 pm

Antipatros wrote:
Untecna wrote:The issue with sanctions is that while they are a quick strategy they do not really work as an effective deterrent, at least for nations like Russia.

I've read a few pieces which criticized US foreign policy as relying too much on economic sanctions in recent years. I'd have to say that I basically agree with them.

Use of threats of force is also bullshit, though sanctions seem to be favored more. So then the real question becomes: How can we punish other countries for things we consider bad without being ineffective or provactive?
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Alkmaaria
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Postby Alkmaaria » Wed Nov 24, 2021 9:53 pm

Militarily speaking, I can optimistically see Ukraine dragging the war on for about a year until they're forced to surrender. After all, they are the ones defending so they get the advantage. Ukrainians have had a lot of animosity towards the Russians for the past two centuries, which could potentially lead to more national unity as a whole. They have more than a quarter of a million active duty infantry, with 900,000 men in reserve (according to wikipedia), which, if utilized correctly, could seriously screw over the Russians.
At the same time, Ukraine is a very flat country with little in the way of natural cover excluding Transcarpathia, but if the Russians reach Transcarpathia then the war is lost for the Ukrainians. Also, Russia is known for having a crap ton of men to invade countries with.
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Great Algerstonia
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Postby Great Algerstonia » Wed Nov 24, 2021 10:35 pm

I hope Russia wins because Ukraine is in league with the hellstate of Albania and Albania must be stopped
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Vikanias
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Postby Vikanias » Wed Nov 24, 2021 10:47 pm

Well shit boys it’s WWIII, see ya on the frontlines.
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The Hazar Amisnery
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Postby The Hazar Amisnery » Wed Nov 24, 2021 11:03 pm

Someone needs to bring back the Pax Romana or something cause I don't see any war with Russia ending well
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Picairn
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Postby Picairn » Wed Nov 24, 2021 11:26 pm

Things like this make me want to invest in a doomsday bunker as soon as I graduate and get a job.
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Postby Stellar Colonies » Wed Nov 24, 2021 11:30 pm

Unlikely.

hopefully
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The Second JELLIAN Republic
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Postby The Second JELLIAN Republic » Thu Nov 25, 2021 12:34 am

The solution here is to economically assist Ukraine in building up its defenses. Arm it to the teeth, so to speak.

(If it is Russian political maneuvering, then they might hope to distract from something else they or their friend China might want to do, and so a short term commitment of rapid deployable troops might make sense, but long term, may not be the best use of resources)
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The Huskar Social Union
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Postby The Huskar Social Union » Thu Nov 25, 2021 3:36 am

The Second JELLIAN Republic wrote:The solution here is to economically assist Ukraine in building up its defenses. Arm it to the teeth, so to speak.

(If it is Russian political maneuvering, then they might hope to distract from something else they or their friend China might want to do, and so a short term commitment of rapid deployable troops might make sense, but long term, may not be the best use of resources)

I agree. I want the EU and US to fully back Ukraine on this if the Russians start something.
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Kaczynskisatva
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Postby Kaczynskisatva » Thu Nov 25, 2021 3:37 am

RT:

https://www.rt.com/russia/541173-putin- ... -prospect/
While it is quite likely that Russia would respond forcefully if Ukraine were to launch a full-scale assault on the rebel Donetsk and Lugansk People’s Republics (DLPR) in Donbass, nobody has to yet to come up with a plausible explanation of why it would launch an all-out invasion of Ukraine entirely out of the blue. Not only would such an attack be extremely costly in terms of lives and treasure, as well as permanently rupture Russia’s relations with the West, but it’s also impossible to see how the Russian government could explain such a war to its own people.

Besides this, former Russian President Dmitry Medvedev recently penned an article explaining that Russia’s best policy towards Ukraine is to do precisely “nothing.” One assumes that Medvedev, as the deputy chairman of the Security Council, to some extent reflects opinion at the highest levels. But an invasion is the precise opposite of ‘nothing’. Russia’s leaders can hardly want to do both at the same time.

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Postby -Astoria- » Thu Nov 25, 2021 3:37 am

Stellar Colonies wrote:Unlikely.

hopefully

why
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Postby Limonovshchina » Thu Nov 25, 2021 3:45 am

I was under the impression that there kind of already was an ongoing Russian-Ukrainian war, albeit a proxy one, the Donbass conflict. In any case, I doubt it's going to turn into a direct, hot war between the two. Just Russia doing power moves while Ukraine is dealing with its insurgents to the east. The rebel territories themselves are limited to a small area with ethnically Russian majorities limited to a handful of localities in the east and Crimea and Russian-speakers to a larger, still limited area.

With all that, if Russia were to overrun and annex Ukraine, most Ukrainians wouldn't agree with it in any way. I doubt a significant portion of Russian speakers would want to live under Russia either. Far as I see it, they prefer to live in Ukraine, just with their language recognized. Doesn't sound too crazy of a demand seeing as it could defuse the conflict significantly.
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Postby Kubra » Thu Nov 25, 2021 4:55 am

-Astoria- wrote:
Stellar Colonies wrote:Unlikely.

hopefully

why
because invading the Ukraine does not currently provide anything. Russia's got Crimea and the Ukraine ain't any closer to taking back the separatist turf.
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Kerwa
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Postby Kerwa » Thu Nov 25, 2021 5:27 am

There’s no reason for Ukraine to be a NATO member that’s what started all this. Just make it explicitly clear that Ukraine is never going to join and that will be an end to it.

And sanctions don’t work at all these days is China isn’t on board these days. Which it isn’t. Sometimes I think the people running the west’s foreign policy have stage three syphalis.

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Ansarullah
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Postby Ansarullah » Thu Nov 25, 2021 5:31 am

It's a move by Putin to demonstrate the independence and sovereignty of Russia and her army. You don't see the headlines whining (in the West) when a US warship passes a couple dozen kilometers off the Chinese coast, or when the US flies strategic bombers literally IN Russian airspace. But the Russians move their troops around in the same demonstration of force as the West (and it's not even comparable, since it's in THEIR territory), and they're magically the aggressors.
The only reason the media is talking about this is because they have to take advantage of every opportunity to label anti-Western countries as the aggressors. It works, too.
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Postby Palestinians » Thu Nov 25, 2021 5:34 am

Ansarullah wrote:It's a move by Putin to demonstrate the independence and sovereignty of Russia and her army. You don't see the headlines whining (in the West) when a US warship passes a couple dozen kilometers off the Chinese coast, or when the US flies strategic bombers literally IN Russian airspace. But the Russians move their troops around in the same demonstration of force as the West (and it's not even comparable, since it's in THEIR territory), and they're magically the aggressors.
The only reason the media is talking about this is because they have to take advantage of every opportunity to label anti-Western countries as the aggressors. It works, too.


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Hukhalia
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Postby Hukhalia » Thu Nov 25, 2021 6:52 am

I don't want any of my country's money or manpower going to the horrific nest of oligarchs and neo-nazis that is Ukraine. Russia's an imperialist nation for sure; yet it is a local power at best, and its activities in places like the Crimea and Donbass have been mostly compliant with the will of the local populations (which has been Russian linguistically and ethnically for centuries). This is more than can be said for NATO's activities. Personally I don't think this will go anywhere -- Putin has too much to lose and too little to gain from a war with Ukraine. His long-term goal is more likely to pacify it politically and restore the pre-Euromaidan status-quo, or at the very least keep it an unstable mess that can't serve as an efficient proxy of western influence. I see this objective as a necessary evil to challenge the present European balance of power.
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Postby Imperial Rifta » Thu Nov 25, 2021 6:56 am

Picairn wrote:Things like this make me want to invest in a doomsday bunker as soon as I graduate and get a job.

Same
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Postby Senkaku » Thu Nov 25, 2021 8:59 am

Hukhalia wrote:I see this objective as a necessary evil to challenge the present European balance of power.

What’s wrong with the present balance of power? The Americans are still in, the Russians are still out, and the Germans are still down, it seems pretty good to me.
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Hukhalia
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Postby Hukhalia » Thu Nov 25, 2021 9:30 am

Senkaku wrote:
Hukhalia wrote:I see this objective as a necessary evil to challenge the present European balance of power.

What’s wrong with the present balance of power? The Americans are still in, the Russians are still out, and the Germans are still down, it seems pretty good to me.

this is incredibly poor bait
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