The Gambler's Last Throw(A Hungarian Election Thread)

[Shrillland]

This might seem like an overdramatic title and well out in advance, but a major development in this race just took place. First of all, most of us here know Viktor Orban as the PM of Hungary, where, with his Fidesz-KDNP Alliance, he rules with 300 iron fists as he's basically tried to turn Hungary into a miniature Russia. I don't normally put my opinions in these OP descriptions, but it must be said. Fidesz has such a stranglehold on the electoral system that, last year, all six of the other major parties in the country joined forces to create a United Opposition Alliance. Even far-right Jobbik has apparently moderated in what's called the Néppártosodás(People's Party Transition) and abandoned many of its ultranationalist policies of the past, moving towards centrist populism and switching ideological positions with Fidesz, with many more extreme former Jobbik leaders forming new parties of their own.

These parties formed consolidated primaries so only one candidate would appear on the ballot representing them all, a mix of greens, classical liberals, social democrats, eurofederalists, eurosceptics, and dissident conservatives, all with one single solitary goal in mind: Beat Fidesz and unseat Orban at any and all costs. Tonight(October 17), the United Opposition chose their leader, Péter Márki-Zay, current mayor of Hódmezővásárhely Urban County. Márki-Zay is technically an Independent, but he was originally a Fidesz supporter before Orban went full authoritarian and still considers himself a right-wing Catholic. The top left candidate, DK's Klara Dobrev, current VP of the European Parliament, lost by around 88,000 votes.

So, this thread will probably be quiet and buried for much of the winter, but I thought the news important enough that the thread should be ready. There's no specific date for neat year's vote except that it will be sometime in mid-April at the very latest. Fidesz and the United Opposition are neck-and-neck in the polls. The Országgyűlés, or National Assembly, has 199 seats in an MMP system, 106 are FPTP constituencies and 93 are chosen via compensatory D'Hondt PR on a single national constituency with a 5% threshold for individual parties, 10% for alliances of two, and 15% for alliances of three or more.

Here are the Alliances and the Parties within:

Fidesz-KDNP(KDNP will not be in the poll due to their weak standalone performance and Fidesz's own disdain): Fidesz-Hungarian Civic Alliance led by Current PM Viktor Orban: Right to Far Right, Hungarian Nationalist, Soft Eurosceptic, Social Conservative, Right Populist, Christian Democratic, Anti-Immigration

Christian Democratic People's Party(KDNP) led by Zsolt Semjén: Right Wing, Catholic, National Conservative, Social Conservatives, Reactionary

United For Hungary led by Péter Márki-Zay(belongs to no party): Movement for a Better Hungary(Jobbik) led by Péter Jakab: Centre-right to Right, Conservative, Agrarian, Social Conservative, Pro-Europe

Hungarian Socialist Party(MSZP) led by Bertalan Tóth: Centre-left, Pro-Europe, Social Democracy

Dialouge for Hungary(Párbeszéd) led by Gergely Karácsony and Tímea Szabó: Centre-left, Green Policy, Social Democratic, Pro-Europe, Feminist

Democratic Coalition(DK) led by Ferenc Gyurcsány: Centre-left, Social Liberal, Eurofederalist

LMP-Hungary's Green Party(LMP-Greens) led by Máté Kanász-Nagy and Erzsébet Schmuck(László Lóránt Keresztes is Országgyűlés leader): Centre-left, Green Liberal, Syncretic

Momentum Movement(M) led by Anna Orosz: Centre, Pro-Europe, Liberal, Civic Nationalist, Social Progressive

Others: Our Homeland(Mi Hazánk) led by László Toroczkai: Far Right, Catholic, Nationalist, Irredentist, National Conservative, Hard Eurosceptic, Anti-Globalist, Agrarian, Social Conservative, Green Conservative

Yes Solidarity for Hungary(ISZOMM) led by Andrea Huszti: Left to Far Left, Democratic Socialist, Eco-Socialist, Anti-Capitalist, Pro-Europe, Goulash Communist

I'm tempted, but I won't include the Hungarian Two-Tailed Dog Party here. You can vote for them in Others if you wish.

For serious consideration, I'm torn between DK and Párbeszéd myself. If the Alliance does manage to win, I think several of these parties will merge if only to ensure that this quite honestly unnatural coalition can last longer than a few weeks. In the end, I think DK will be my choice for now. And remember, the Alliance already had their primaries where one candidate would be chosen, and their lists are merged, so there will be only one Alliance candidate on their ballots and an Alliance spot for the PR seats.

[Karolengia]

Orbán is bad but the opposition is a coalition of ex-Communists, ex-Nazis, and Ferenc Gyurcsany's party. Somehow I find them even less trustworthy than Orbán.

I'm tempted, but I won't include the Hungarian Two-Tailed Dog Party here. You can vote for them in Others if you wish.

Why? They're more popular than MHM and ISZOMM.

[CoraSpia]

If the United Opposition wins, what do they do beyond 'not be Orban?'

[Risottia]

If the United Opposition wins, what do they do beyond 'not be Orban?'

Well, reverting all of Orban's policies to a normal EU democracy will take 5 years at the very least, so their program is already written.

[Outer Sparta]

Orbán is bad but the opposition is a coalition of ex-Communists, ex-Nazis, and Ferenc Gyurcsany's party. Somehow I find them even less trustworthy than Orbán.

I'm tempted, but I won't include the Hungarian Two-Tailed Dog Party here. You can vote for them in Others if you wish.

Why? They're more popular than MHM and ISZOMM.

Ironically the playbook implemented by Fidesz is from the same one as that of the communists before the fall of communism in Eastern Europe.

[CoraSpia]

If the United Opposition wins, what do they do beyond 'not be Orban?'

Well, reverting all of Orban's policies to a normal EU democracy will take 5 years at the very least, so their program is already written.

And replace them with...

Do they have a particular country they wish to model their government on?

[Dreria]

they should get rid of orban but keep his policies

[San Lumen]

they should get rid of orban but keep his policies

Orban being unpopular is why the collation was formed in the first place.

[Risottia]

Well, reverting all of Orban's policies to a normal EU democracy will take 5 years at the very least, so their program is already written.

And replace them with...

Do they have a particular country they wish to model their government on?

Pre-Orban Hungary?

[Shrillland]

If the United Opposition wins, what do they do beyond 'not be Orban?'

Well, reverting all of Orban's policies to a normal EU democracy will take 5 years at the very least, so their program is already written.

True, but GVH makes a point as to how this can be implemented in what is quite honestly an unnatural political chimera.

[Karolengia]

And replace them with...

Do they have a particular country they wish to model their government on?

Pre-Orban Hungary?

Pre-Orban Hungary is the reason that Orbán is in power. Have none of you ever heard of the Oszod speech?? The only reason Orbán is in power is because the other parties were so thoroughly corrupt. He was a normal centre-right conservative before they radicalised him against liberalism. The MSZP & DK are made up of ex-communists and some of the business elites who aren't aligned with Orbán.

"If there is a scandal in the society, then it's the fact that the upper ten thousand are building themselves up again using public money."
"Let them protest in front of Parliament. Sooner or later they will get bored of it and go home."
"No European country has done something as boneheaded as we have. Obviously, we lied throughout the last year-and-a-half, two years."

I hate to say this as someone who wants Orbán gone but Hungary does not have a credible opposition. Orbán manages to be less corrupt than them. Gyurcsany, who said all of those things, is a leading member in the DK by the way.

[Shrillland]

Pre-Orban Hungary?

Pre-Orban Hungary is the reason that Orbán is in power. Have none of you ever heard of the Oszod speech?? The only reason Orbán is in power is because the other parties were so thoroughly corrupt. He was a normal centre-right conservative before they radicalised him against liberalism. The MSZP & DK are made up of ex-communists and some of the business elites who aren't aligned with Orbán.

"If there is a scandal in the society, then it's the fact that the upper ten thousand are building themselves up again using public money."
"Let them protest in front of Parliament. Sooner or later they will get bored of it and go home."
"No European country has done something as boneheaded as we have. Obviously, we lied throughout the last year-and-a-half, two years."

I hate to say this as someone who wants Orbán gone but Hungary does not have a credible opposition. Orbán manages to be less corrupt than them. Gyurcsany, who said all of those things, is a leading member in the DK by the way.

I have indeed heard of it, a shameless disdain for the public that opened the door for Orban who claimed to care about the people. Economically speaking, Hungary's never been better, which is why it's so hard to try and beat him on the dictator argument.

[Karolengia]

Pre-Orban Hungary is the reason that Orbán is in power. Have none of you ever heard of the Oszod speech?? The only reason Orbán is in power is because the other parties were so thoroughly corrupt. He was a normal centre-right conservative before they radicalised him against liberalism. The MSZP & DK are made up of ex-communists and some of the business elites who aren't aligned with Orbán.

"If there is a scandal in the society, then it's the fact that the upper ten thousand are building themselves up again using public money."
"Let them protest in front of Parliament. Sooner or later they will get bored of it and go home."
"No European country has done something as boneheaded as we have. Obviously, we lied throughout the last year-and-a-half, two years."

I hate to say this as someone who wants Orbán gone but Hungary does not have a credible opposition. Orbán manages to be less corrupt than them. Gyurcsany, who said all of those things, is a leading member in the DK by the way.

I have indeed heard of it, a shameless disdain for the public that opened the door for Orban who claimed to care about the people. Economically speaking, Hungary's never been better, which is why it's so hard to try and beat him on the dictator argument.

Yeah. I would feel so hopeless as a Hungarian. The only choice for centre-right people like myself is DK, who at best are equally as corrupt as Orbán, or the neo-nazi party Jobbik (yes they say they have changed but I do not believe them at all)

[Goblinstad]

I'd vote for the only (seemingly) eurosceptic party, Fidesz.

[Karolengia]

I'd vote for the only (seemingly) eurosceptic party, Fidesz.

Fidesz aren't really eurosceptic. Orbán supports the EU and even goes as far as supporting an EU army.

[Shrillland]

I'd vote for the only (seemingly) eurosceptic party, Fidesz.

Fidesz aren't really eurosceptic. Orbán supports the EU and even goes as far as supporting an EU army.

What he said. Soft Eurosceptic just means the same pay PiS in Poland is soft Eurosceptic, they support the EU and greater European cooperation, but they support it in a way that doesn't involve the Western countries sticking their ideas of liberalism where they don't think they belong.

[Bienenhalde]

Well, reverting all of Orban's policies to a normal EU democracy will take 5 years at the very least, so their program is already written.

And replace them with...

Do they have a particular country they wish to model their government on?

What about Finland? Does Finland sound like a good model to you?

[Shrillland]

It's been a couple of months, but I though I should get some election-related news out for the meantime.

Despite their proposals for a minimum wage increase, Hungary's left members of the Opposition voted against a Fidesz-proposed one at Marki-Kay's insistence(Magyar Nemzet is a Orban-friendly paper, so take its tone with some salt)

Meanwhile, the more opposition-friendly Nepszava shows Fidesz leading in the polls 46-32 over the United Opposition

[Diahon]

wait, there are still papers within hungary that are hostile to orban and fidesz? what chicanery is this?

[Shrillland]

wait, there are still papers within hungary that are hostile to orban and fidesz? what chicanery is this?

I chose the country's two largest papers, and Nepszava is still fairly critical. Orban hasn't succeeded to the same level as Poland quite yet.

[Shrillland]

We're now within two months of the vote, and most of January's poll average to a 5-point lead for Fidesz and Orban as the last, best hope for Hungarian Democracy continues to trail behind.

First, from the pro-Orban Magyar Nemzet: The Government is warning about foreign influence from the Western EU states and is defending a referendum to be held the same day for "protecting children", which is in reality an anti-LGBT law

Meanwhile, over at Nepzsava: The nation's teacher's unions have called for a national strike starting on March 16, which is also being condemned by the government as subversion from the left

[Shrillland]

The war may have a very surprising casualty: Orban's Government

[Shrillland]

Also taking place on Election Day next month, a national plebiscite that would basically cement Hungary's status as firmly in the Anti-LGBTQ+ camp. It'll consist of four questions, and here they all are according to the Hungarian Government:

Do you support the teaching of sexual orientation to minors in public education institutions without parental consent?

Do you support the promotion of sex reassignment therapy for underage children?

Do you support the unrestricted exposure of underage children to sexually explicit media content that may affect their development?

Do you support the showing of sex-change media content to minors?

If this isn't emotional maniulation to ban "homosexual propaganda" a la Russia, I don't know what is. A poll from last month shows the populace overwhelmingly in favour.

[San Lumen]

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/3/1 ... -president

Katalin Novak elected Hungary's first female President

[Chan Island]

The war may have a very surprising casualty: Orban's Government

So what is the latest polling regarding this? 2 weeks of war must have shifted something some way in this debate.