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Tumbran Newswire (CLOSED)

A place to put national factbooks, embassy exchanges, and other information regarding the nations of the world. [In character]
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Tumbra
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Tumbran Newswire (CLOSED)

Postby Tumbra » Fri Apr 16, 2021 1:40 pm

Please do not post in this thread unless you are a mod or authorised to do so by Tumbra.

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TUMBRAN INTERNATIONAL NEWSWIRE
Jointly Administered
by the Tumbran Broadcasting Corporation's World Service
and the News Alliance


The following thread serves as a compendium for all of non-sporting related Tumbran news. For all sports-related news, click on this link to be brought to the Tumbran Domestic Sporting Newswire. The OP will be updated as and when necessary to reflect updates.

From the wiki article about Tumbra:

Tumbra, officially the Federal Republic of Tumbra, is a federal democratic republic located in Esportiva. It is situated with Damukuni to its west, the Hinodejin Empire to its north and oceans to its south and east. It covers an area of about 547,795km2, with a population of over 114 million people in its 25 constituent states. Its capital is Straton, while its largest city and financial centre is in Couno, the largest urban area is the Northeast Conurbation, comprising the previous two cities along with the cities of Harren, Serrapince (which is also the second largest city in Tumbra), Timbourne and Killiney.

Tumbra is a major power with a strong economy; it is a global leader in science and technology, along with culture and media. Couno is in particular home to the Tumbran Broadcasting Corporation and the Couno Herald, two of the multiverse's biggest news providers in the broadcast and print media industries respectively. A major tourist destination, the Tumbran scenery also offers an alluring tourist destination.

Politically, Tumbra is a federal parliamentary republic; under the Constitution of the Federal Republic of Tumbra, the President is the head of state, but their power is mostly nominal. The Prime Minister of Tumbra is the most powerful office in the country and the bicameral Federal Parliament the primary legislative body.

As a highly developed country, it offers social security and a comprehensive universal health care system programme, rich environmental protections, and free university education. Tumbra is a member of the Esportivan Union, and is also a member of the World Cup Committee. It is, however, not a member of the World Assembly.


The current year in Tumbra is
2028


About the Partners


The Tumbran Broadcasting Corporation is the national broadcaster of Tumbra. Headquartered in Couno, it is one of the world's oldest national broadcasters, and one of the largest broadcasters in the world by employed staff. A federal corporation owned by the Government of Tumbra, it is nonetheless politically independent and wholly accountable. Providing radio, television, online and mobile services throughout Tumbra, its foremost mission is to act in the public interest; and to bring impartial, high-quality programmes to the public to inform, educate and entertain.

The News Alliance is a non-profit news agency headquartered in Straton. It operates as a cooperative, unincorporated association; its members are largely made up of Tumbran newspapers and broadcasters. Its biggest members today are, in decreasing order of publication numbers:
  • The Couno Herald
  • The Serrapince Post
  • The Straton Times
  • The Bencoolen Globe
  • The Kingsbury Tribune
  • The Millsburgh Chronicle
Dedicated to delivering factual, objective and accurate news and information to the public, the mission of the Alliance is to carry out journalism of events going on around the world — with particular focus on the AREA regions (Anaia, Rushmore, Esportiva, Atlantian Oceania), with select coverage of other regions as well.

Coverage from other websites may also appear as well.
Last edited by Tumbra on Fri May 20, 2022 8:41 am, edited 15 times in total.
THE FEDERAL REPUBLIC OF TUMBRA
Tumbra - a sprawling, modern federal democratic republic located in Esportiva. Strong economy, strong civil rights, strong freedoms.
Population: 114 million | TLA: TMB | Capital City: Straton | Largest City: Couno
Constitution | Domestic News | Domestic Sports | Wiki Article | A Timely Reminder
President: James D. Clark (Green/Independent) | Prime Minister: Michael Kirkland (Labour)
U-18 World Cup 13 Champions/Di Bradini Cup 51 Champions

User avatar
Tumbra
Ambassador
 
Posts: 1052
Founded: Aug 29, 2013
Civil Rights Lovefest

Postby Tumbra » Sat Apr 17, 2021 12:13 pm

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Last edited by Tumbra on Fri May 27, 2022 12:58 am, edited 2 times in total.
THE FEDERAL REPUBLIC OF TUMBRA
Tumbra - a sprawling, modern federal democratic republic located in Esportiva. Strong economy, strong civil rights, strong freedoms.
Population: 114 million | TLA: TMB | Capital City: Straton | Largest City: Couno
Constitution | Domestic News | Domestic Sports | Wiki Article | A Timely Reminder
President: James D. Clark (Green/Independent) | Prime Minister: Michael Kirkland (Labour)
U-18 World Cup 13 Champions/Di Bradini Cup 51 Champions

User avatar
Tumbra
Ambassador
 
Posts: 1052
Founded: Aug 29, 2013
Civil Rights Lovefest

Postby Tumbra » Sun Apr 18, 2021 12:06 pm

Everett Unveils Second Cabinet

Amongst the reveals was the surprise move of Deputy PM Alan Philburn to the new Ministry of Technology; Sandra Campbell becomes youngest full Cabinet Minister, aged 32


In a bid to continue surprising pundits and political enemies alike, Kenneth Everett today revealed his full Cabinet lineup, doing away with the tradition of slowly revealing Cabinet members after an election victory. The new Cabinet will have twenty-three ministers in twenty-four portfolios, but that will shrink to twenty-three portfolios by the end of the year.

The biggest surprise of the reveal was that of the Deputy Prime Minister, Alan Philburn, leaving his post and taking the helm of the new Ministry of Technology. Mr. Philburn, 69, will also take charge of the Ministry of Local Government as it winds down its operations and its responsibilities gradually transferred over to other government ministries.

A more minor change was also reflected in the lineup reveal - the Ministry of the Environment will now include Energy in its portfolio title, reversing a change made in 2013.

Everett, who was flanked most notably by both Mr. Philburn and his new Deputy Prime Minister, Eric Cooper-Jones, made the announcement at a press conference called shortly after lunch. While the list of names only included the inner Cabinet - no Minister of State appointments were revealed - they are widely expected to be revealed in due course, before Parliament convenes on the 16th. Well-placed sources have informed that Mr. Everett is planning to increase the number of Ministers of State, and to make it such that one person takes up one sub-portfolio, instead of the current system where one individual can take up multiple sub-portfolios within the same ministry.

Mr. Philburn expressed that him stepping down from the Deputy Prime Ministership was something that he had discussed with the Prime Minister before the election, and that he relished the chance to help set up and establish the new Ministry of Technology, and to guide it to helping all Tumbrans “embrace a technological future”, yet one that was “safe and secure” and had the “propensity to help society progress.”

The appointment has already proved controversial amongst some young voters, with many noting the irony of the oldest member of the Cabinet helming a Ministry that would typically be a strong suit of a younger Minister. Prior to this appointment, the Commerce Secretary, Colin Green (53) was widely expected to be the one to lead the Ministry of Technology. The prevailing wisdom, however, is that Philburn will step down in 2022 once the Ministry is properly established.

Mr. Cooper-Jones, 54, in a short statement, expressed his hope for a productive second term in office and hoped that he would be able to live up to Mr. Philburn’s “capable leadership”. He will, in switching from the Foreign Affairs portfolio, be thrust into a world of provincial interests and navigating a world that is, ironically, considerably more hostile than that of the Continent and otherwise.

Natalie Stern, the Education Minister, will take the Foreign Affairs Portfolio; Emma Chambers, who served as Minister of State for Universities and Adult Learning and the Minister of State for Research, Science and Technology, will take her place at the helm of the Education Ministry.

Colin Green, the Minister for Commerce, will take over at the Ministry of Labour, where incumbent Christopher Raleigh will become the new Leader of the House. Kate Sinclair, who previously served in this position, will then take over as Minister for Commerce.

Edward Hamilton takes over the Urban Development portfolio from Daniel Addison, who himself moves to the International Development portfolio; Andrew Gilligan will take over as the Minister for Culture from Mr. Hamilton.

Five ministers will be leaving the Cabinet; as predicted earlier this week, Peter Symonds (Immigration) and William Bowman (Social Affairs) will be leaving for the backbenches. They will be joined by John McKay (Local Government), Warren Jefferson (Minister without Portfolio) and Graham Pryor (Cabinet Office).

Mr. Symonds will be replaced by his number two at the Ministry of Immigration, Kevin Steinmann; Mr. Bowman will be replaced by the current Minister of State for Religious Affairs, Multiculturalism, Women and Equalities, Sonia Kaur. Both these appointments were regarded as natural successors for the job, and even more so considering that both are allies of the Prime Minister.

The other two newcomers are regarded as surprises; David Carr, 59, the current Minister of State for Revenue, will become the new Minister for the Cabinet Office; it is widely expected that Mr. Carr will serve as a deputy to the Finance Minister, William Stern.

Of the various Ministry of State appointments, particular attention was generated by the Ministry of Foreign Affairs' "Esportivan Integration" portfolio, which serves as a nod to the final election debate in Kingsbury, where the idea of a closer Esportivan Union was first mooted by the Prime Minister. It seems almost certain now that such a program will be a key focus of the Second Kenneth Everett Ministry, as it seeks to look beyond Tumbra in its second term.

Other new inclusions are Sandra Campbell, 32, who will be the youngest full Minister for over forty years; currently a backbench MP for Couno Langholm, she will become the Minister without Portfolio, and is widely expected to take over at the Ministry of Technology when Mr. Philburn does eventually step down from Cabinet. While not present at the press conference, she later remarked on TBC One in an interview after the press conference that she had been “humbled” by the opportunity, and looked forward to representing “everyone, as much as I can, and especially those without a voice” in Cabinet.

Parliament will convene on the 19th to re-elect the Prime Minister; he is expected to submit the full list of names to President Kelia Campbell (no relation), who will then appoint those named by the Prime Minister to their positions soon after.

The Second Kenneth Everett Ministry
The 55th Government of Tumbra

Ministry Minister

Prime Minister/Minister for the Civil Service Kenneth Everett
Minister of State for the Civil Service Darrell Hammond

Deputy Prime Minister/Minister for Intergovernmental Affairs Eric Cooper-Jones

Minister for Finance William Stern
Minister of State for Revenue Adrian Williams
Minister of State for the Banking System Justin Trevelyan
Minister of State for Consumer Protection Michael Hoyle
Minister of State for Economic Development Sen. Sarah Barnes
Minister of State for Innovation Sen. Gordon Stewart

Minister for Foreign Affairs Natalie Stern
Minister of State for Esportivan Integration Pierre La Guire
Minister of State for Esportiva, Atlantian Oceania and Rushmore Sen. Kirsten Somersby
Minister of State for the Independent Regions Sen. Gareth Cahill
Minister of State for the Diplomatic Service and International Security Matthew Coleman

Minister for Home Affairs Joanne Lorcan
Minister of State for Federal Crime and Policing David Roberts
Minister of State for Homeland Security and Intelligence Rachel Firth
Minister of State for Emergency Preparedness Noel Gabriel

Minister for Law and Justice/Attorney General Stephen Ewing
Solicitor General Mark Cousins
Minister of State for the Judiciary and Constitution Sen. Timothy Attale
Minister of State for Prisons and Rehabilitation Chris Holcomb

Minister for Defence Michael Kirkland
Minister of State for the Defence Industry and Procurement Brian Kirkby
Minister of State for the Armed Forces Michael Prentice
Minister of State for Veterans Affairs Karl Collier

Minister for Commerce Kate Sinclair
Minister of State for International Trade Jane Milton
Minister of State for Provincial Trade Bill Sutherland
Minister of State for Industry John Bain
Minister of State for Small and Medium Enterprises Douglas Crowther

Minister for Health Hannah Young
Minister of State for Public Health Sen. Aaron Aziz
Minister of State for Social Care Wanda Stevenson
Minister of State for the Health Service Julian Fitch

Minister for Education Emma Chambers
Minister of State for Junior Education Dominic Clarke
Minister of State for Universities Raja Khan
Minister of State for Lifelong Learning and Skills Jonathan Bernstein
Minister of State for National Data and Standards Frank Wilson

Minister for Transport John Hammond
Minister of State for Public Works and Infrastructure William Lamb
Minister of State for the Railways Neal Goodwin
Minister of State for Urban Transport Ian Randall
Minister of State for Aviation Transport Ann Downing
Minister of State for Maritime Transport Rachel Fell

Minister for Labour Colin Green
Minister of State for Manpower, Employment and Labour Relations Bernard Dunn
Minister of State for Corporate Responsibility and Workers’ Rights Lucy Morgan
Minister of State for Workforce and Human Development Marnie Evans
Minister of State for the National Insurance Raja Khan
Minister of State for the National Endowment Bertram Andrews

Minister for Agriculture Helen Blackare
Minister of State for Agriculture and Food Security Corrina Howells
Minister of State for Fisheries and Oceans Brenda McCrory
Minister of State for Water Chloe Whittaker
Minister of State for Natural Resources and Land Management Sen. Noel Horner

Minister for Urban Development Edward Hamilton
Minister of State for Housing Rodney Williams
Minister of State for Urban Regrowth and Rehabilitation Sen. George Hendriks
Minister of State for Free City Affairs Marc Denney

Minister for Regional Development Kay Roberts
Minister of State for Rural Infrastructure Heather Pickering
Minister of State for Connectivity and National Opportunity Gavin Miller

Transitional Minister for Local Government Alan Philburn
*Mr Philburn will oversee the activities of the Ministry of Local Government in a demissionary capacity, as its functions
are transferred to various other Federal Ministries.


Minister for Energy and the Environment Sarah Davies
Minister of State for Energy Peter Houghton
Minister of State for Climate Change and Sustainability Sen. Jon Abraham
Minister of State for Wildlife and Parks Luke Fleming

Minister for Culture Andrew Gilligan
Minister of State for Tourism Jeremy Attwood
Minister of State for the Arts, Culture and Heritage Joyce DeCerce
Minister of State for Sport Nicola Symonds

Minister for Immigration Kevin Steinmann
Minister of State for the Border Police Hugh Whittaker
Minister of State for Customs Sen. Will Sanders

Minister for International Development Daniel Addison
Minister of State for Foreign Investment Daniel Hardcastle
Minister of State for Foreign Aid Vanessa Lewis

Minister for Social Affairs Sonia Kaur
Minister of State for Civil Society Angela Lambert
Minister of State for Religious Affairs and Multiculturalism Mary Sharifa
Minister of State for Women and Equalities Sen. Susan Leigh
Minister of State for Youth Lucy Masters
Minister of State for the Elderly Wayne Sutcliffe
Minister of State for Indigenous Rights Jody Clifford

Minister for Technology Alan Philburn
Minister of State for Research, Science and Technology Sen. Matthew Bullock
Minister of State for Digital Media, the Internet and Data Security Trevor Evans
Minister of State for Mass Media and Telecommunications Simon Firth
Minister of State for the Tumbran Space Agency Gavin Clarke

Minister without Portfolio Sandra Campbell

Minister for the Cabinet Office David Carr

Also Attending Cabinet

Leader of the Government in the House Christopher Raleigh

Leader of the Government in the Senate Sen. Bill Tennyson

Chief Whip Tai Diaz
Last edited by Tumbra on Fri May 27, 2022 12:58 am, edited 2 times in total.
THE FEDERAL REPUBLIC OF TUMBRA
Tumbra - a sprawling, modern federal democratic republic located in Esportiva. Strong economy, strong civil rights, strong freedoms.
Population: 114 million | TLA: TMB | Capital City: Straton | Largest City: Couno
Constitution | Domestic News | Domestic Sports | Wiki Article | A Timely Reminder
President: James D. Clark (Green/Independent) | Prime Minister: Michael Kirkland (Labour)
U-18 World Cup 13 Champions/Di Bradini Cup 51 Champions

User avatar
Tumbra
Ambassador
 
Posts: 1052
Founded: Aug 29, 2013
Civil Rights Lovefest

Postby Tumbra » Tue Apr 27, 2021 7:25 am

How Labour Won The Election

Gains in key swing states such as Clearmont and Bechor, whilst retaining most marginal seats wrested over in 2017 landslide, delivered second term for Everett; Message of infrastructural growth and international co-operation likely swayed middle-class voters, who were key to 2.3% headline swing to Labour


The 2021 Tumbran federal elections ended with Labour winning a landslide victory, and an increased majority for its second term in office. While most opinion polls before the election correctly predicted the outcome, they were mostly conservative on the scale of the majority that the Labour Party would win by. The eventual majority of 132 shocked many observers, who expected it to be in the 80-100 range, while the scale of the losses suffered by the Liberal Party also shocked many, who were not expecting the party to fall below 200 seats - its worst result since the party's formation.

So how, then, did the party lose so badly? Most of the 49 seats the Liberal Party lost were of the same demographic - largely urban, largely middle-class dominated suburbanites who were swayed by the Labour Party's message of continuing the economic recovery that Kenneth Everett began in 2017, as well as beginning to reach outwards to the world.

It should be noted that the figures here are first-preference votes; therefore they have little to no implication on who actually won the seats indicated, and merely an indication of party support generally, since voters have to rank the 6 parties from 1 to 6.

Nationally

2021 Tumbran House of Representatives Election
650 Seats, 326 required for a majority
Turnout: 92.5%
Total Votes Cast: 79,472,184

Political Party Votes % Seats Change
Labour 33,374,590 42.00 391 ▲52
Liberal Alliance 28,019,250 35.25 191 ▼50
Moderate 7,209,099 9.07 28 ▼9
Green 5,567,991 7.01 20 ▲2
Conservative 4,001,174 5.03 17 ▲5
Social Democratic 1,300,080 1.64 3 -0

RESULT: Labour majority over all other parties of 132


These were the numbers that many were familiar with throughout the night -- Labour gaining 52, the Liberal Alliance losing 50, and a surge in Conservative support which translated into an added 5 seats for the far-right party in the night. However, these were signs of a more general trend throughout the country, rather than localised in any single state -- which showed how much of an effect the Everett campaign on the public mood. Commentator John Ellis on TNN called it a campaign that was "executed flawlessly", and Labour had been aptly rewarded with their increased majority.

By focusing more on the economic argument and less on the social arguments of yore, including injustice, Everett managed to deliver a targeted message of recovery and belief in a properly-funded welfare state and system, by promising that social nets would remain strong even as the recovery continued. Few bones, however, were thrown to progressives, leading to some switching their first preference votes to the Greens. The campaign was widely regarded as relatively moderate when it touched on social issues, if at all. One note that the new Labour government has promised to touch on -- the involvement of females in the traditionally male-only Tumbran Football League -- proved to be surprisingly progressive, with Everett striking out by saying that it should be the norm in Tumbra, too -- especially since other countries in Esportiva and even in Rushmore and Atlantean Oceania have adopted a similar stance.

Of course, foreign policy would prove to be the dominant topic over the last few weeks of the election campaign, and with good reason. Everett's mooting of an Esportivan Union proved to be the perfect topic to end the election on, and has so far been flawlessly executed. Skating over potential flashpoints including the loss of sovereignty and jobs flowing outwards to other Esportivan countries, Everett chose to focus on the message of free trade and the cost of living, as well as the flow of ideas throughout countries. The Liberals, by contrast, who have always had a problem when determining whether they wanted to be internationalist or rather more isolationist (historically, the party's foreign policy has always been set by the party leader), seemed muted on the response. Anne Monteiro, who already faced a divided Shadow Cabinet, proved to be rather muted in its response -- perhaps losing some Esportiva-sceptic votes to the Conservatives, who hit Labour on the Esportivan Community hard, fast and continued making it a big issue even as the campaign moved towards Election Day.

Napier

2021 Tumbran House of Representatives Election in Napier
70 seats
Total Votes Cast: 8,539,002

Political Party Votes % Seats Change
Labour 3,650,672 42.75 46 ▲4
Liberal Alliance 3,029,847 35.48 21 ▼3
Moderate 878,027 10.28 1 ▼1
Green 558,521 7.01 1 -0
Conservative 311,016 3.64 1 -0
Social Democratic 80,919 0.95 0 -0


Napier, a traditionally red bastion of votes and seats for the Labour Party on the federal level, swung even harder to the left on 9 April, resulting in Labour picking up four seats - Winsford, Dunglass and Guillemard North from the Liberal Party, and Killiney Ophirwood from the Moderates. Guillemard North was perhaps one of the most-closely watched seats throughout Election Night -- with Shadow Urban Development Minister John Murray losing his seat in dramatic fashion. Trailing by just over a thousand votes on first preferences, preference counts swung between him and his Labour opponent Zachary Simmons, before final preferences put him at just 2,172 votes, or 1.8%, behind. It was a key blow to the Liberals, who had campaigned hard to keep this seat blue. Indeed, Murray's seat, which was one of the most vulnerable in the country, showed a less than average two-party preferred swing to Labour, at just 1.7%, and many pollsters put this seat as a tossup despite it being the first seat to fall in the event of a landslide Labour victory. The Moderates, meanwhile, failed to defend their Defense Spokesperson Duncan Chamberlain's seat, his seat falling on a 5% swing to Labour.

Bechor

2021 Tumbran House of Representatives Election in Bechor
61 seats
Total Votes Cast: 7,403,354

Political Party Votes % Seats Change
Labour 3,225,420 43.57 38 ▲6
Liberal Alliance 2,701,379 36.49 18 ▼5
Moderate 605,129 8.17 3 ▼1
Green 478,447 6.46 1 -0
Conservative 291,900 3.94 1 -0
Social Democratic 101,079 1.37 0 -0


A big shift in Bechor, as Labour gained 6 seats from the Liberals and Moderates to go clearly first here, after Bechor became the site of many a marginal seat in 2017. Labour's 6 gains were mostly spread out throughout the state - they gained Grinnell in Serrapince, Lowestoft in Marray, Outram in Thurmond, and Oakham and Grantham in the more-rural Carpenter region, with the latter seat seeing a 5% swing away from the National Party (the junior party in the Liberal Alliance) to fall to Labour. The Moderates lost Guelph, and came close to losing Winchester as well, seeing a 4% swing away from it in the two-party vote share. Many seats that Labour gained here were of the same mould as that of the typical Labour target in this election, with Grantham being the notable exception.

Clearmont

2021 Tumbran House of Representatives Election in Clearmont
47 seats
Total Votes Cast: 5,674,147

Political Party Votes % Seats Change
Labour 2,265,996 39.93 23 ▲9
Liberal Alliance 2,078,815 36.64 20 ▼9
Moderate 464,990 8.19 1 -0
Conservative 427,464 7.53 2 -0
Green 272,390 4.80 0 -0
Social Democratic 164,492 2.90 1 -0


A key state in Everett's path to victory, Clearmont was one of two states where the Liberals got more votes and seats than Labour in the 2017 election (Several had the Liberals winning more votes but Labour winning more seats). A lot of that result was attributed to Darren Hayes' effect (the former Prime Minister was MP for Broxtowe, until he stood down last week), which arguably saved quite a few blue seats from turning red. No reprieve for the Liberals this time, however, as Everett visited Hesham and its suburbs multiple times throughout the campaign period -- resulting in 9 seats flipping from blue to red, including 4 within Hesham itself -- Paiyoh, Northwoods, Westwich and Denton all flipped, while Stockton and Stretford all suffered a small swing against their incumbent MP. Outside the state capital, however, a further 5 seats flipped, including Palling, Thomson North West, Pelham, Leavenworth and Havelock Central, showing just how much Everett's message resonated with the traditionally conservative, agricultural-based southern state.

Georgia

2021 Tumbran House of Representatives Election in Georgia
44 seats
Total Votes Cast: 5,289,557

Political Party Votes % Seats Change
Labour 1,970,031 37.24 24 ▲3
Liberal Alliance 1,920,018 36.30 11 ▼8
Conservative 833,682 15.76 7 ▲5
Moderate 278,485 5.26 1 -0
Green 222,044 4.20 1 -0
Social Democratic 65,297 1.23 0 -0


Alan Spalko's self-proclaimed Conservative Revolution came to the fore here, as the Conservatives swept Erie. The 15.76% of first preference votes that the Conservatives registered here proved to be the highest proportion of votes in any state for any third-party effort, and Spalko was swept into office as the new MP for Nottingham on a 16.3% swing, proving just how much the Erie region -- historically a manufacturing hub, but hit hard by the economic crises of the early 2010s and never really recovered -- swung to the right in recent years. Similar swings in neighbouring seats -- 13.9% in Medine, an eye-watering 18.6% in Stepney, 13.4% in Waterford and 14.4% in Coville as Kathleen Nielsen unseated former Cabinet Minister John Harrison, who had to be persuaded not to retire in order to defend the seat from the Conservatives. Similar swings occurred in other Georgian seats, too -- Edwin Smith in Mercer suffered an 11.1% swing, while Edward Jefferson in Alleghany suffered a 14.4% swing. Neither were ousted, though both, when interviewed after the night, reported that the election campaign had largely been a failure, and denigrated Anne Monteiro for it.

Much of Spalko's campaign -- which never left the state, focused on denigrating the Liberals more than it did Labour, whom he virtually ignored up till Everett's comments on further Esportivan integration. It worked, really, but had the unfortunate side effect of delivering three seats to Labour as well. Labour gained Wynyard and Stevenage on the outskirts of Kingsbury, Finchley in the sub-region of Happel, and Meridian in the sub-region of Wabash. Perhaps highlighting how blue this state could still be, first-term MP Terence Milner was ousted in his seat of Clyburn on a 4% swing. Yet, the one gain -- one of three Liberal Alliance gains through the night -- was not enough to offset the loss of Erie, and the more metropolitan seats in Kingsbury.

Marlsbruhe

2021 Tumbran House of Representatives Election in Marlsbruhe
37 seats
Total Votes Cast: 4,534,765

Political Party Votes % Seats Change
Labour 2,036,289 44.90 26 ▲2
Liberal Alliance 1,448,512 31.94 7 ▼1
Moderate 390,001 8.60 2 ▼1
Green 305,840 6.74 1 -0
Conservative 246,295 5.43 1 -0
Social Democratic 107,828 2.38 0 -0


One of the reddest states in the Federal Republic got even redder as Labour picked up two additional seats -- one apiece from the Liberals and Moderates, both in the metropolitan Fontwell area, in the form of Fontwell South West from the Moderates and Kirbrook from the Liberals -- as not much change occurred here. Several seats came close to changing hands -- the Moderates nearly lost their other seat of Oakwell, too, holding on to the seat on Liberal second preferences (Labour won the initial count, winning about 8,000 more first preferences than the Moderates), while the Liberals came within a whisker of losing the seats of Manechino and Lackenby in the considerably more rural region of Manechino.

Grantfeldt

2021 Tumbran House of Representatives Election in Grantfeldt
34 seats
Total Votes Cast: 4,188,506

Political Party Votes % Seats Change
Labour 1,814,411 43.32 19 ▲4
Liberal Alliance 1,448,375 34.58 11 ▼3
Green 333,335 7.96 2 -0
Moderate 320,454 7.65 1 ▼1
Conservative 191,039 4.56 1 -0
Social Democratic 80,892 1.93 0 -0


Grantfeldt, the scene of one of the closest finishes in the 2017 election, saw a less close finish this time, with Labour winning over half of the seats in the state this time. Labour gained Eden, Wicklow and Culdee from the Liberals, while taking Corcorran from the Moderates. Eden and Wicklow saw 5% two-party preferred swings, while Culdee saw a 7% swing -- evident of how Everett's strategy worked in the crucial swing state. The Conservatives attempted to make inroads in the state, but had to be satisfied with the retention of their only seat in Cornell.

Iswilyn

2021 Tumbran House of Representatives Election in Iswilyn
30 seats
Total Votes Cast: 3,671,174

Political Party Votes % Seats Change
Labour 1,369,328 37.30 16 ▲3
Liberal Alliance 1,329,490 36.21 10 ▼3
Moderate 557,441 15.18 3 -0
Green 266,804 7.27 1 -0
Conservative 89,982 4.56 0 -0
Social Democratic 58,043 1.58 0 -0


Iswilyn, the site of another nailbiting finish last election, saw a similarly narrow finish this season, as Labour took the most votes by just forty thousand. The state, however saw only one incumbent Moderate MP - Annie Kirkpatrick from Lambeth - survive, as Peter Shore in Vernon and Sharon Clarke in Oakton City both lost their seats to Labour. The Moderates, however, did pick up two seats -- Fullerton from the Liberals and Moresby from Labour -- to end their night in Iswilyn on a net loss of zero seats. Labour, meanwhile, gained Othaven and Brumen from the Liberals. More surprising was the fact that in this relatively sparsely-populated states, a swing to Labour still occurred; and the seats that did flip from Liberal to Labour were more rural.

Severn

2021 Tumbran House of Representatives Election in Severn
28 seats
Total Votes Cast: 3,448,615

Political Party Votes % Seats Change
Labour 1,478,685 42.88 18 ▲1
Liberal Alliance 1,129,140 32.74 9 -0
Moderate 300,628 8.72 0 -0
Green 292,644 8.49 0 -0
Conservative 193,779 5.62 0 ▼1
Social Democratic 53,739 1.56 0 -0


Severn, one of the least third-party friendly states in the country, continued that reputation when the Conservatives lost Lewis Bolton's old seat - Waltham - that he'd held since 1988. Waltham was the site of Bolton's announcement of Tumbra First - the party that he founded and led until its dissolution and merger with the Conservatives in 2020, apparently with much reluctance. Bolton retired at the election, and a 5% swing to the Liberals -- much of the vote personal -- saw the seat fall to the Liberals.

The Liberals also lost Nicodale on a 7% swing -- the highest swing between the two parties recorded at this election. Otherwise, Severn was largely quiet in terms of seat movements, which was about expected, given that most of the seat swings between the two big parties occurred in 2017.

Thornton

2021 Tumbran House of Representatives Election in Thornton
26 seats
Total Votes Cast: 3,158,423

Political Party Votes % Seats Change
Labour 1,341,867 42.49 16 ▲2
Liberal Alliance 1,109,356 35.12 9 ▼2
Moderate 290,697 9.20 1 -0
Green 196,502 6.22 0 -0
Conservative 155,581 4.93 0 -0
Social Democratic 64,420 2.40 0 -0


Once again, only minor changes in Thornton, as two seats swapped from the Liberals to Labour. Paterson, held by Ben Oakley, suffered a 7% swing, while Sommerville in the more rural northern part of the state suffered a 6% swing against the incumbent. Both these seats had been identified as target seats by Labour before the election; suitably, they fell on Election Night. The results in this state will prove to be a boon to Premier Edwin O'Connor as he seeks to get re-elected in next month's state election — and hopefully, secure a governing majority for himself in the state, too. The Moderates held on to their one seat with a slightly increased margin, which also bodes well for their state election chances, too.

Fremont

2021 Tumbran House of Representatives Election in Fremont
26 seats
Total Votes Cast: 3,151,114

Political Party Votes % Seats Change
Labour 1,406,266 44.63 16 ▲2
Liberal Alliance 1,128,076 35.80 9 ▼2
Moderate 260,981 8.28 1 -0
Green 243,486 7.73 1 -0
Conservative 65,235 2.07 0 -0
Social Democratic 47,070 1.49 0 -0


Fremont, widely regarded as a bellweather, trended red this election cycle as two suburban seats in Hoxford — Overton and Litchfield — fell to Labour on swings of about 3% and 4% respectively. All over the state, Liberals saw their majority slashed, widely attributed to Premier Paul Harrison's sinking popularity ratings as he grapples to fulfill on a raft of budget cuts meant to boost private investment into the state coffers. While Harrison is not up for election until 2023, there have been rumours that a rogue group of Liberal legislators may force a vote of no confidence in Harrison, and by consequence, force him to dissolve the state Parliament. If these rumours are true and believable, then these federal results do not bode well for Harrison's chances at any state election, even if the state does trend more towards the right on the provincial level.

Dartmoor

2021 Tumbran House of Representatives Election in Dartmoor
25 seats
Total Votes Cast: 3,072,725

Political Party Votes % Seats Change
Labour 1,256,283 40.88 15 ▲3
Liberal Alliance 1,020,676 33.22 5 ▼2
Green 322,453 10.49 2 -0
Moderate 259,515 8.45 2 ▼1
Conservative 169,073 5.50 1 -0
Social Democratic 44,725 1.46 0 -0


Another state that trended red this election, the Dartmoor Labour Party actually underperformed compared to their federal counterparts — quite a bit of the underperformance in the first preference vote was put down to the Greens' surge of support in this state, which saw them reach 10% of the first preference vote and nab third from the Moderates. The Moderates performed badly here; losing Arran on a 2% swing to Labour. The Liberals lost the comparatively more rural seats of Wimbourne and Hampton, while the Conservatives' only seat of Maron saw a 6% swing against the incumbent MP, Frank Waters; however, the National Party candidate was unable to muster up enough preference votes to defeat Waters.

Westmond

2021 Tumbran House of Representatives Election in Westmond
20 seats
Total Votes Cast: 2,482,596

Political Party Votes % Seats Change
Labour 1,122,886 45.23 14 -0
Liberal Alliance 935,646 37.69 5 -0
Moderate 163,649 6.59 1 -0
Green 132,953 5.36 0 -0
Conservative 91,740 3.70 0 -0
Social Democratic 35,722 1.44 0 -0


One of the reddest states in Tumbra — a key state on the Liberals' path to a majority — stayed red, though the extent of the Liberals' campaign here did see them flip a seat from red to blue. The region of Strand saw the Liberals flip the seat of Keenan Toomes in Harper, and slashed the majority of Joanne Austin in neighbouring Reedon. Yet, a loss on the outskirts of Ridgewell, where Labour flipped Dunsford from blue to red, meant that the Liberals' gain was easily cancelled out.

The results in this state were notable for the high degree of first preference votes that went to the two biggest parties — while not as stratified as Severn, where only the two big parties won seats, only 18% of the first preference vote went to the minor parties. Anne Monteiro's heavy campaigning in this red-heavy state may have been a misstep for the Liberal campaign, but her party flipping one seat here proves that her efforts were at least somewhat justified.

Marcato

2021 Tumbran House of Representatives Election in Marcato
19 seats
Total Votes Cast: 2,348,084

Political Party Votes % Seats Change
Labour 1,008,775 42.96 13 ▲2
Liberal Alliance 830,410 35.37 5 ▼1
Green 322,453 8.73 1 -0
Moderate 259,515 8.20 0 ▼1
Conservative 169,073 4.01 0 -0
Social Democratic 17,252 0.73 0 -0


A disappointing performance here for the Moderates, as noted maverick James Anderson lost his seat in Sandleford on a 4% swing to Labour. The Greens also did extremely well in this state, taking advantage of the Moderates' fall to reach 10% in this state as well. Katie Evans in Betham increased her winning majority quite considerably, with a 5% swing in her favour; no doubt the Greens' performance all over the board was crucial to her increasing her popularity here.

The Liberals lost Jim Bailey in Newbury on a slight 3% swing; on average, while the Marcato Labour Party underperformed the federal Labour Party in terms of vote share, it still racked up over 60% of the seats on Election Night, something which was key to Labour's large majority.

Finnley

2021 Tumbran House of Representatives Election in Finnley
18 seats
Total Votes Cast: 2,236,125

Political Party Votes % Seats Change
Labour 1,000,575 44.75 12 ▲2
Liberal Alliance 733,115 32.79 4 ▼2
Moderate 265,171 11.86 2 -0
Green 150,947 6.75 0 -0
Conservative 70,005 3.13 0 -0
Social Democratic 16,312 0.73 0 -0


In the relatively urban state of Finnley, Labour made two gains in relatively urban areas; Greenwich in Nantwich fell on a 6% swing and Northwick in Algoma fell on a 3% swing. The Moderates did well to hold on to their two seats; largely in affluent university towns, the surge in the student vote might have saved the Moderates from falling to the tide of Labour support.

Turvenal

2021 Tumbran House of Representatives Election in Turvenal
18 seats
Total Votes Cast: 2,183,500

Political Party Votes % Seats Change
Labour 933,978 42.77 9 ▲2
Liberal Alliance 692,679 31.72 6 ▼1
Green 259,489 11.88 2 -0
Moderate 240,146 11.00 1 ▼1
Conservative 46,456 2.13 0 -0
Social Democratic 10,752 0.49 0 -0


Turvenal was perhaps emblematic of the shift in attitudes from Liberal to Labour, and from Labour to the Greens; perhaps indicative of a wider generational shift, but also largely of a failure of the Liberals to capitalise on the success of a relatively-successful state government. Labour gained Eggerton from the Liberals on a 4% swing — and Madison from the Moderates on a 3% swing. The Greens held both of their seats, increasing their margin of victory in Thorpenhead, a young, suburban seat; these seats perhaps emblematic of future openings for the Greens.

Gamaliel

2021 Tumbran House of Representatives Election in Gamaliel
16 seats
Total Votes Cast: 1,963,171

Political Party Votes % Seats Change
Labour 818,170 41.68 11 ▲1
Liberal Alliance 722,235 36.79 4 ▼1
Moderate 239,531 12.20 1 -0
Green 108,381 5.52 0 -0
Conservative 62,452 3.18 0 -0
Social Democratic 12,402 0.63 0 -0


Ning Leigh in Sheridan lost her seat on a 2% swing in the only seat change in Gamaliel, as the relatively quiet contest in Gamaliel saw limited swings; the Moderates, however would achieve their fourth best finish in the state, yet only pick up one seat. Outgoing Moderate leader Hannah Slater later remarked that she would continue her push for proportional representation; a policy tack shared by her party, the Greens, and a section of the Labour Party. Under proportional representation, the Moderates and Greens would have achieved 58 and 46 seats respectively; a far cry from the 28 and 20 they achieved on Polling Day. Despite the Conservatives' opposition to the proposal, they would have gained as well; instead of the 17 seats they won, they would instead have 33 seats in Parliament.

Straton

2021 Tumbran House of Representatives Election in Straton
16 seats
Total Votes Cast: 1,959,462

Political Party Votes % Seats Change
Labour 794,302 40.54 8 ▲1
Liberal Alliance 554,548 28.30 3 -0
Moderate 263,470 13.45 2 ▼1
Green 193,955 9.90 2 -0
Social Democratic 118,176 6.03 1 -0
Conservative 35,011 1.79 0 -0


Straton, that bastion of diversity in political opinions, once again proved its diversity in thought by delivering only 8 of its 16 seats to Labour. A strong performance for the SDP here — the best of the night — delivered them a slightly increased majority in Roncaster, while Labour wrested away control of Hoeven from the Moderates on a 5% swing. Despite the three Liberal seats all suffering strong swings against them — 3% in Roslyn and Griffin, and an eye-watering 7% in Loxley — they held on in an impressive result for the Liberals, some of whom were predicting a wipeout in the strongly-left trending urban area.
Last edited by Tumbra on Fri May 27, 2022 12:58 am, edited 1 time in total.
THE FEDERAL REPUBLIC OF TUMBRA
Tumbra - a sprawling, modern federal democratic republic located in Esportiva. Strong economy, strong civil rights, strong freedoms.
Population: 114 million | TLA: TMB | Capital City: Straton | Largest City: Couno
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Postby Tumbra » Fri May 07, 2021 11:57 am

Raleigh

2021 Tumbran House of Representatives Election in Raleigh
15 seats
Total Votes Cast: 1,845,224

Political Party Votes % Seats Change
Labour 758,091 41.08 9 -0
Liberal Alliance 727,504 39.43 5 -0
Moderate 192,695 10.44 1 -0
Green 77,671 4.21 0 -0
Conservative 76,369 4.14 0 -0
Social Democratic 12,894 0.70 0 -0


No seat changes in Raleigh, with most only slight swings either way; the Liberals came within 30,000 votes of winning the state's popular vote but ultimately fell short, failing to flip a single seat from Labour. Labour, for what it was worth, had admitted on the campaign trail that it had left the campaigning in this state largely to the state party. Neil Kenwright, the political veteran of Raleigh, throwing his hat in might have stopped a swing away from the Liberals; but they will be frustrated that they failed to make inroads in the small state.

Alexandria

2021 Tumbran House of Representatives Election in Alexandria
15 seats
Total Votes Cast: 1,840,369

Political Party Votes % Seats Change
Labour 714,160 38.81 6 -0
Liberal Alliance 702,189 38.15 5 ▼1
Moderate 156,226 8.49 1 -0
Green 144,204 7.84 2 ▲1
Conservative 109,105 5.93 1 -0
Social Democratic 14,485 0.79 0 -0


One of the biggest shocks of the night took place in Alexandria — noted climate change sceptic Paul Williams was unseated by 27 year-old activist Kirsten Browne. A 12% two-party preferred swing was required to unseat the veteran MP, who had run into trouble recently regarding expenses claims in the last Parliament and had survived a constituency party recall vote against him as late as February. The result was one of the biggest stories of the night, as Browne won the seat by just 251 votes; after coming back from a 15,000 vote deficit on preferences.

Caduke

2021 Tumbran House of Representatives Election in Caduke
13 seats
Total Votes Cast: 1,604,989

Political Party Votes % Seats Change
Labour 714,160 44.91 9 ▲1
Liberal Alliance 613,768 38.24 4 ▼1
Moderate 114,013 7.10 0 -0
Green 98,181 6.12 0 -0
Conservative 45,399 2.83 0 -0
Social Democratic 12,899 0.90 0 -0


Caduke, a traditional blue state which fell hard to the Labour trend in 2017, continued that trend in 2021 as Labour flipped Shingleton from the Liberal column. Not many inroads were made by the other parties, which saw Caduke remain as one of the most bipolar states in the country. A 5% 2-party preferred swing got Labour over the line here; with a state election due in June, Premier George Lennon may fancy his chances in winning a second term.

Lormark

2021 Tumbran House of Representatives Election in Lormark
12 seats
Total Votes Cast: 1,498,237

Political Party Votes % Seats Change
Labour 626,701 41.83 7 -0
Liberal Alliance 493,053 32.91 3 -0
Moderate 188,639 12.59 1 -0
Green 154,422 10.31 1 -0
Conservative 24,536 1.64 0 -0
Social Democratic 10,886 0.73 0 -0


Another state in which no seats changed hands, Lormark remained in the Labour column, delivering 7 of its 12 seats to Labour; despite this, concerted efforts to flip Lerwick, held by the Liberals, and Southport Central, held by the Greens, failed. Labour, however, came extremely close in Renfrew East, slicing Richard Denayer's slim 2% majority to just 0.6%. Denayer came from behind to win the seat on preferences, winning by just over a thousand votes.

Pesvern

2021 Tumbran House of Representatives Election in Pesvern
10 seats
Total Votes Cast: 1,232,343

Political Party Votes % Seats Change
Labour 410,691 33.33 5 ▲1
Liberal Alliance 507,924 41.22 4 ▼2
Conservative 156,139 12.67 1 ▲1
Moderate 88,428 7.18 0 -0
Green 63,548 5.16 0 -0
Social Democratic 5,613 0.46 0 -0


Sapphire blue Pesvern, long since regarded as the safest Liberal state in the country, threw up surprise after surprise on Election Night — firstly, with Shepperton East flipping from blue to red, a projection which led to most media networks immediately calling the election. While losing on the first preference counts, Moderate and Green preferences eventually got Labour over the line to secure its status as the largest party in the state for the first time since the 1969 elections — while the Liberals lost not just one, but two seats. The Conservatives picked up Kellsthorpe by 3,500 votes, after ending first preferences just 45 votes behind the Liberals. While the Liberals won the first preference vote count in the state, and by a large margin, there is a certain sense that Pesvern accurately summed up the Liberals' night — facing a fight on both the left and right, it went neither way and ended up conceding ground on both sides. With rumours of a new opposition force arising to contest August's state election, the state Liberal government — which has been in power since 1997 — has to be prepared for the fight of its electoral life.

Harren

2021 Tumbran House of Representatives Election in Harren
8 seats
Total Votes Cast: 974,768

Political Party Votes % Seats Change
Labour 404,027 41.45 6 ▲1
Liberal Alliance 381,591 39.15 2 ▼1
Moderate 79,221 8.13 0 -0
Green 65,744 6.74 0 -0
Conservative 31,060 3.19 0 -0
Social Democratic 13,125 1.35 0 -0


In the northeastern horn state of Harren, which has remained remarkably purple despite cities trending red in more recent years, Labour took six of the city-state's eight seats, despite electing a Liberal government just last year. The sole seat to flip was Prinope, which trended red on a 4% swing; but the Liberals came remarkably close in the Harren suburbs to flipping two of the state's seats, with Liberal candidates slashing majorities in those seats by 2% and 5% respectively. Ultimately, though, the Liberals once again came up short; but this will be a key battleground state on the route back to power for the next Liberal leader.

Bencoolen

2021 Tumbran House of Representatives Election in Bencoolen
6 seats
Total Votes Cast: 737,683

Political Party Votes % Seats Change
Labour 321,651 43.61 2 ▼1
Green 177,911 24.12 2 ▲1
Liberal Alliance 124,971 16.94 1 -0
Moderate 79,878 10.83 1 -0
Conservative 24,598 3.33 0 -0
Social Democratic 8,655 1.17 0 -0


The other big surprise of Election Night ended up being Bencoolen, where Labour actually lost a seat to the Greens. While maintaining a healthy lead over the other five parties, the Greens surged to second place, taking the inner-city seat of Bencoolen South from Labour. With a state election this year in which the Greens could possibly form the first non-Labour or Liberal state government in over forty years, this result could be a sign of things to come.
THE FEDERAL REPUBLIC OF TUMBRA
Tumbra - a sprawling, modern federal democratic republic located in Esportiva. Strong economy, strong civil rights, strong freedoms.
Population: 114 million | TLA: TMB | Capital City: Straton | Largest City: Couno
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Postby Tumbra » Fri May 07, 2021 12:03 pm

Monteiro Resigns After Crushing Union Defeat

The embattled Liberal leader will resign after her successor is elected; the new leader will be elected on May 31. But where did it all go wrong?


When Anne Monteiro successfully challenged Geoffrey Osbourne for the leadership of the People’s Civic Union in 2018, her victory speech promised a tougher line on the Everett government, and that she would do her best to ensure that every action of Labour’s government would be closely scrutinised.

Three years later, in a harried speech delivered outside the headquarters of the People’s Civic Union, looking every bit worse for wear, she delivered her own resignation upon the election of a new leader for the Union, pending the election of her successor. She took no questions at the end of it and quickly retreated into the building afterwards.

“It is evident...that Tumbra has decided on who they want to lead them for the next four years, and overwhelmingly so. When I took over as leader of the Union three years ago, I promised to provide effective opposition and form an alternative government to return the Union to the halls of government at the earliest opportunity. Unfortunately, that is not to be,” her statement began at 10am, flanked by the other leaders of the Union, and her husband. “I will be leaving the position of Leader of the Liberal Party, pending the election of my successor.”'

The expected resignation comes after a night where the Alliance took a brutal beating from the Labour party, which romped home to victory with a new majority of 102. While pre-election polling had never been optimistic for the Union's chances, insiders say that the top brass never expected the scale of this loss.

For the Alliance, the highest profile loss of the night was John Harrison in Coville, suffering a 16% swing against him to give the Conservatives the seat by the thinnest of margins. "It's a reckoning," the 73 year-old veteran politician and former Cabinet Minister ruminated on TBC One. "Our base deserted us this election. We did absolutely nothing to stop the Conservatives encroaching on us. We offered absolutely nothing to the middle classes, absolutely nothing to the working classes. And they got us." Harrison had been planning on retiring from Parliament, but had been convinced to fight one last term. It marks his first electoral defeat in over 40 years in politics.

Other major losses for the Liberals include Shadow Urban Development Minister John Murray, who suffered a below-average swing against him - just 2% - but it was not enough to stop his seat going red, and Paul Williams in Alexandria, whose seat fell to the Greens in another big moment for the Liberals.

"Her position is now untenable," a former senior aide told The Couno Herald on Election Night. "Already I'm hearing that several senior Liberal politicians are ready to make a go for the post."

A press release from the Chairman of the Liberal Party, Joel Fitzooth, at about noon, outlined the timeline for the election - candidates will be presented to the Union caucus and be eliminated one by one until only two remain; the full Liberal membership will then vote on the last two candidates. The eliminations will begin on May 1, with a new leader expected to be declared on May 31.

Her statement - clear and straightforward - harks back to her campaigning style that helped yet hurt her so during the election campaign, especially when it failed to show up following the Linden controversy, where she took a long time to release a statement that did not sound genuine. It hurt her chances, and made her seem like an ineffectual leader - only amplified by her gender.

Monteiro is only the fourth woman to serve as Prime Minister or Leader of the Opposition, and from the start she had to battle perceptions that she was a weak leader unable to control her Shadow Cabinet - and the infighting within it didn’t serve her cause well either. Dogged by multiple threats to resign from her Shadow Cabinet, Monteiro spent almost as much time trying to put out fires than going on the offensive against the left, and she ended up giving up ground to the Conservative Party, which gained several safe Liberal seats in Georgia and greatly ate into the margins of other members.

The united front put up by the Union once the election began didn’t help matters much - the damage had already been done. While Monteiro performed admirably at the three leaders’ debates, her campaign seemed lackluster, devoid of many new ideas, and banked on a reform of healthcare policy to open up the Health Service to private insurance, something which Labour endlessly attacked over the campaign.

A well known proponent of small government and free markets, Monteiro sought to promote herself as a saviour of the Tumbran federal government, which at times has been called hulking, inefficient and too powerful. But in the midst of a recession, where government aid helped mitigate most of the fallout from job losses, Monteiro’s message simply didn’t resonate with the electorate.

“In a year where most were expressing concern for the situation up north economically and then looking at the aid they were receiving,” says political analyst Jon Ornstein, “much of the vitriol that typically exists for the federal government evaporated, and many began to recognise the effect that government could have. Monteiro’s ‘shrink-the-bloated-government’ message might have worked in 2009, but not in today’s political climate.”

Speculation on who the next Liberal leader would be had started even before the writs dropped, as polls continued to bound in favour of Everett; when the Shadow Minister for Home Affairs Robin Stoff was not a prominent part of the campaign, speculation abounded that he was distancing himself from the campaign; similar rumours made the rounds for Peter Lindner, the former Senate Opposition Leader who ran (and was later elected to) for a seat in Iswilyn.

The common consensus is that the MP for Yarwood, Stephen Johnson, will run, alongside Lindner, Stoff and Shadow Minister for Law and Justice Nicholas Cooper. Before the polls, the Shadow Minister for Urban Development John Murray was highly-tipped for the leadership; unfortunately, he lost his seat and is ineligible to run for election. Of the four, Johnson is the only one unassociated with the Monteiro Shadow Cabinet; he only served as a Minister of State in the Hayes cabinet, but was widely tipped for a promotion if they won the 2017 election. TBC understands that Peter Lindner, who served as Senate Opposition Leader, is the current frontrunner. The Liberal Party offered no comment.

"Lindner is relatively untainted by this election," said political strategist Kelly Oates on TNN. "He did serve as Senate Opposition Leader, but wasn't actually a prominent part of this campaign, and is a relatively known quantity renowned for his fair-handedness and social liberalism," she added, "and that might entice voters back to the party."

The Coalition attracted flak during the campaign for a campaign derided as "nasty", with the race in Linden, Ham. drawing the national attention during the last weeks of the campaign. Incumbent Labour MP and first-term MP, Mohamad Khalid, had been the target of reportedly racist ads circulated by his National opponent, John Rhys-Donaldson. Mr. Rhys-Donaldson did win his seat - one of the few Liberal gains this election - but the attention garnered there hung a cloud over the last few weeks of the campaign. While all the other parties swiftly denounced the advert, the Liberal reaction was much slower, and much more muted. Monteiro did not make a statement on the event until 72 hours after the news broke, and the National Party only said he would be disciplined according to internal party rules, leading to greater criticism of Monteiro and the Liberals that proved difficult to shake off.

"It did hurt us, yes. Middle Tumbra, I think, was turned off by that and that eventually hurt us when it came down to preferences," Stephen Williams, MP for Yarwood, reflected. Mr. Williams, a vocal opponent of Ms. Monteiro, is also widely expected to stand for the leadership, if one occurs.

As the Union grapples with its path forward, the glaring awareness that this election loss may see them out of power for the next generation has begun to dawn. For them, however, the struggles have only just started.

Announcements are expected to be made after the first session of the new Parliament, which will meet on April 16; nominations close on April 27. The month-long campaign is expected to reveal just how fractured the Liberal Party is, and the long road forward, with the party expected to be out of power until at least 2030.
THE FEDERAL REPUBLIC OF TUMBRA
Tumbra - a sprawling, modern federal democratic republic located in Esportiva. Strong economy, strong civil rights, strong freedoms.
Population: 114 million | TLA: TMB | Capital City: Straton | Largest City: Couno
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Postby Tumbra » Fri May 07, 2021 12:04 pm

Snubbed by Everett, McKay Disclaims Election and Looks Inward

The current Local Government Minister looks set to not take up his seat in a bid to re-enter Bechor politics, with a view to replacing David Ross before 2022.


The soon-to-be former Minister for Local Government, John McKay, 57, today disclaimed his election as the MP for Keppel, Bechor and announced he would not take up his seat in the new Parliament. The move is understood to be made both in response to him being left out of the new Cabinet and in preparation to stand for any by-election in the Bechor State Parliament which would open the path to him becoming Premier later in the year.

In a brief appearance, McKay declined to comment on the above explanation, with the reason he gave being that he “wished to spend more time with family, and to re-evaluate my future in politics.” A well-placed source indicated he is planning to swap seats with current State MP Ron Astley, meaning he would contest Astley’s seat in the resulting Hornchurch by-election, and Astley would take McKay’s place in Keppel.

Speculation regarding his move back to Bechor politics intensified after he reportedly walked out of a discussion with the Prime Minister during the election campaign, and barely figured on the campaign trail especially after the writs were dropped in February. Mr. McKay held his seat with a 2% swing towards him in the election three days ago.

Incumbent Premier David Ross, 72, is widely expected to step down in August or September, ending an eleven-year run at the top job in Bechor politics. His succession was widely delayed, by his own admission, that he personally did not see any viable successor for his position that would deliver a fourth term for his Labour administration. McKay, as a widely popular legislator in Bechor, would change that and allow Ross the opportunity to step down.

McKay himself served as a Bechor state MP from 1998 until 2013, serving as the Bechor Minister for Social Affairs in Ross’ first Cabinet until he stepped down to run for Parliament in that year’s election.

The move comes as somewhat a blow to Kenneth Everett merely three days after winning his second term, and could potentially expose cracks in party unity. Neither Labour, the Prime Minister’s Office nor the Cabinet Office provided any comment.
THE FEDERAL REPUBLIC OF TUMBRA
Tumbra - a sprawling, modern federal democratic republic located in Esportiva. Strong economy, strong civil rights, strong freedoms.
Population: 114 million | TLA: TMB | Capital City: Straton | Largest City: Couno
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Postby Tumbra » Mon Jul 26, 2021 8:54 am

BREAKING: Plans Announced For Northward Expansion

Prime Minister announces plans for northward expansion of Tumbra; plan would see Tumbra expand borders to surround the rest of territory surrounding Shinshabona Bay


Image
The area which would become Tumbran territory if the plan comes to fruition.


STRATON — In a televised address, Prime Minister Kenneth Everett today announced plans to expand Tumbra northwards, and to move its border northwards to border the Hinodejin Empire. The PM announced that the decision was taken "with a heavy sense of responsibility" to "bring Tumbra to the uninhabited Northlands." The announcement was met with various degrees of derision from the left — both the Social Democratic Party and the Green Party decried the move as "bare-faced imperialism and colonialism", while 23 members of the Labour Party, mostly of the left-wing Progress Caucus, released their own statement lambasting the move as "wilfully ignorant of the people who exist on that territory and who have the right at any time to form a nation-state of their own." Vast swathes of Esportiva are, as of today, uninhabited; they are mostly inhabited by disparate tribes, nomadic or otherwise.

The plan, which will be introduced to Parliament as the Northlands Expansion Act, is expected to gain broad support from about half to three-quarters' of Labour's caucus and almost all of the right; which would assure its passing through Parliament. The Moderates at this time had not offered any comment on the matter.

What Are The Northlands?

Located to the north of Tumbra, with the southernmost part beginning just 50 or so kilometres from Franport, is a stretch of largely-uninhabited lands with little to no human presence. Rich in natural resources, and with fertile lands, Tumbran colonisation could see an increase to the economy's productive capacity, and provide valuable new opportunities for economic growth.

The addition of the Northlands would add about 20,000km2 to Tumbran territory; and while the country's population would see no notable increases, Everett mentioned that the native inhabitants of the land would be given "full citizenship" of Tumbra, and be treated equally and afforded all legal rights afforded to all other Tumbran citizens. Currently, inhabitants of the Northlands in Tumbra are treated as stateless citizens; and while clause 222b of the Constitution states that stateless citizens should be treated similarly to Tumbran citizens, there have been many reports in the past of discrimination, especially amongst the Westmond Police Force, of discrimination against the people of the Northlands.

Who inhabits the Northlands?

At the current moment, researchers from the University of Ridgewell estimate that about 350,000 people inhabit the Northlands. Despite them being just north of Tumbra, not many studies have been conducted into their origins — nor their ways of life. Attempts at contact have almost always resulted in hostility; in 1967 the Malcolm Haywood government declared the area off-limits after a military training exercise in the southern part of the Northlands went awry, resulting in the deaths of three soldiers.

Why is this plan controversial?

Colonialism is often shunned in today's day and age; any plan to expand a nation's borders is often looked upon disdainfully as irrententism. The statement released by the Social Democratic Party called the plan "imperialism; something that this country decided to leave behind in 1864," and the Greens similarly called it "the Tumbran people trampling over other people's rights to self-determination by enacting their own standards of government and culture."

It is not known what reaction the Esportivan Union might have; and whether, if the reaction to this move is negative, this might scupper the government's chances of nominating someone for the position of Secretary-General.

What is the plan to colonise the Northlands?

Like most colonial schemes, the plan will be to establish coastal settlements before moving inland; but Tumbra's unique position directly south of the Northlands presents it with an opportunity to approach colonisation from a different view — from the south. The Northlands will not accede to the Federal Republic immediately; but the Prime Minister said in his speech it was a "long-term" plan to have the Northlands fully incorporated as the twenty-sixth state of Tumbra. Settlers will be encouraged to move with promises of generous stipends and land allowances; young people are thought to be part of the key target audience for the government to encourage moving north. The Prime Minister in his speech described it as a "once in a millennium" opportunity.

The Prime Minister announced plans to speak in Parliament on Tuesday regarding the plan to expand Tumbra's borders, and is expected to face heavy questioning from members of not just the opposition, but from his own party as well.
Last edited by Tumbra on Wed Aug 04, 2021 2:59 am, edited 1 time in total.
THE FEDERAL REPUBLIC OF TUMBRA
Tumbra - a sprawling, modern federal democratic republic located in Esportiva. Strong economy, strong civil rights, strong freedoms.
Population: 114 million | TLA: TMB | Capital City: Straton | Largest City: Couno
Constitution | Domestic News | Domestic Sports | Wiki Article | A Timely Reminder
President: James D. Clark (Green/Independent) | Prime Minister: Michael Kirkland (Labour)
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Postby Tumbra » Thu Aug 05, 2021 7:23 am

Minor Cabinet Reshuffle On Cards; New Ministry of Northern Affairs To Take Charge Of Expansion Process

All the day's reaction as Alan Philburn formally leaves the Cabinet, Sandra Campbell takes on the Technology portfolio, and the Everett Government moves closer toward expanding Tumbra's borders with the second reading of the Northlands Act.


Image
The new Ministry of Northern Affairs will be formally established after the Northlands Act is passed, and is currently planned to share its premises with the Ministry of Defence.


STRATON — Tumbra today continued along its path to expanding into the area now known as the Northlands with a minor Cabinet reshuffle — in a move that will also see Alan Philburn step down fully from the Cabinet, ending a career in government which stretches back to 1996. Sandra Campbell will take his place at the Ministry of Technology, warding off claims that a ministry dedicated to future-proofing Tumbra's economy, as well as the Internet was headed by the oldest minister in the entire Cabinet.

Other minor announcements regarding the Ministry of Technology's scope included regulation of the media industry being moved back to the Ministry of Culture, and Senator Kirsten Somersby becoming the first Senator since Chris Newell in 1999 to become a full government Minister when she was announced to be promoted to the Cabinet; albeit without a portfolio.

While expected, today's raft of announcements also saw the full departure of Alan Philburn from the Cabinet.

Philburn leaving the Cabinet marks the end of a storied career in government dating back to the beginning of the North administration in 1992, when the second-term MP became Minister for Health; across the seven-year North administration, he went on to serve as Minister for Transport from 1995 till 1998; and Minister for Finance from 1998 to 1999. Following North's resignation as Labour leader in 2000, he ran for leader; but was defeated by Sarah Bowman in the last round of voting.

He did not serve in Bowman's short-lived Shadow Cabinet; but after Ian Randall was elected as Labour leader, he was returned to his old Finance post on the opposition benches, and regained that position when Randall and Labour won the 2005 election. However, his popularity took a dip as Tumbra entered a recession near the end of the decade; and when Randall lost the 2009 election, Philburn made plans to sit on the backbenches for the rest of his Parliamentary career.

After the 2013 election, however, an MP and junior minister from Timbourne approached Philburn, asking him to run alongside him for Labour leader. That MP was Kenneth Everett; and Philburn throwing his support behind Everett ultimately swung that year's leadership election in his favour. Philburn was elected as Deputy Leader in that same election; and together they would forge a strategy to bring Labour back to the corridors of power.

Philburn, 69, is expected to be the Tumbran nomination for the post of Secretary-General of the Esportivan Union when nominations are opened; whether said nomination will be successful, however, will also depend on the Union members' reaction to the Northlands scheme — which so far has been relatively mixed, if muted.

The Northlands formed the crux of the other major announcement of the day — that there would be a new Ministry formed, namely the Ministry of Northern Affairs (MoNA). The PM announced that he would be heading the Ministry, guiding its foundation and setting out its scope as more of the Northlands project comes to fruition. It is expected, however, that he will name a Deputy Minister which will take care of the day-to-day running of the Ministry.

President Kelia Campbell is expected to swear in the new Ministers in about a month from now.
THE FEDERAL REPUBLIC OF TUMBRA
Tumbra - a sprawling, modern federal democratic republic located in Esportiva. Strong economy, strong civil rights, strong freedoms.
Population: 114 million | TLA: TMB | Capital City: Straton | Largest City: Couno
Constitution | Domestic News | Domestic Sports | Wiki Article | A Timely Reminder
President: James D. Clark (Green/Independent) | Prime Minister: Michael Kirkland (Labour)
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Postby Tumbra » Sat Feb 26, 2022 1:31 am

Federal Constitutional Court Rules Tumbran Expansion As Constitutional

In an 8-1 ruling, the Federal Constitutional Court ruled that the expansion of Tumbran borders into the Northlands was constitutional and that Clause 27 of the Constitution does not apply.


STRATON — Peace activists in Straton were delivered a blow to their ambitions of stopping the expansion of Tumbra into the Northlands as the Federal Constitutional Court ruled, 8-1 in Hannigan vs. Tumbra, that the Tumbran actions in the Northlands were legal. In a bench opinion released minutes after the decision was handed out, the Court's opinion held that the Northlands was not yet a part of Tumbra; and therefore the Constitution did not apply there.

Clause 27 of the Tumbran Constitution applies only within the borders of the Federal Republic; while the territory generally known as the Northlands is claimed by the Federal Republic at the present moment, it is not yet under full control of the Federal Republic, nor has it begun the process of ascending to the Federal Republic as its twenty-sixth state. The Constitution of the Federal Republic therefore does not apply in the Northlands, rendering the plaintiff's complaint moot.


Clause 27 of the Tumbran constitution, known as the Equal Protection clause, became the point of contention in this case over the language used in it — that "all humans" were born free and equal. The plaintiff, Ruth Hannigan, a former MP for Hesham Fletchley and current head of the Stop The Northlands non-governmental organisation, argued that if "the Constitution recognises that all people are free and equal, then surely that protection applies to the people of the Northlands as well." In oral arguments held over the two weeks before the ruling was passed down, Hannigan, being a trained lawyer, represented herself before the Federal Constitutional Court; Tumbra was represented by Solicitor General Robert Grisham.

The decision was met by dismay by many protesting on the streets of Straton; one activist said she was "extremely disappointed" in the manner that the Federal Constitutional Court had delivered its ruling. "It's disappointing," she said, "that the court won't give peace a chance."

What does Clause 27 of the Tumbran Constitution say?

Clause 27, known as the Equal Protection Clause, protects the right of all Tumbrans to receive equal protection before the law; and protects the right of anyone in Tumbra to a speedy trial, avoid self-incrimination, and against double jeopardy, cruel and unusual punishments and no punishment without law. It is one of the Clauses in the Constitution of the Federal Republic that has been declared "irrevocable", meaning that the clause may not be edited to strip it of its fundamental meaning or be repealed altogether.


This view was not echoed by the Conservative Party leader and presidential candidate Alan Spalko, who welcomed the ruling as one that "would keep Tumbra strong as we continue making our country stronger." He was the only leader of any political party to make a statement on the ruling; neither the ruling Labour Party nor the opposition Liberal Party made any statements, and are not expected to. The ruling is not expected to change the Tumbran government's policy on the Northlands, nor is it said to slow down the expansion; into a region that is full of natural resources and metals, but has also been met with a wide range of opposition on the grounds of both human rights and claims of imperialism from the Federal Republic.
THE FEDERAL REPUBLIC OF TUMBRA
Tumbra - a sprawling, modern federal democratic republic located in Esportiva. Strong economy, strong civil rights, strong freedoms.
Population: 114 million | TLA: TMB | Capital City: Straton | Largest City: Couno
Constitution | Domestic News | Domestic Sports | Wiki Article | A Timely Reminder
President: James D. Clark (Green/Independent) | Prime Minister: Michael Kirkland (Labour)
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Postby Tumbra » Wed Apr 06, 2022 1:09 am

Image
Latest Poll Of Polls Shows Hung Parliament As Liberals Eke Out Small Lead Over Labour


Image


THE RESPUBLICA 2-Party Preferred Voting Intentions Poll, conducted over the past week by TPI (Tumbran Polling Institute) shows the Liberal/National coalition continuing its steady, if slim lead over the incumbent Labour Party as the public continues to remain cool to the new Prime Minister's claims that he is able to fix the economy and ease inflationary pressures in the country's economy.

First Preferences
LAB 38.2%
LIB/NAT 37.5%
GRN/PRG 8.4%
CON 7.3%
MOD 6.3%
SDP 1.6%
NDP 0.4%
CU 0.3%
REF 0.0%
The Liberal/National coalition is standing steady on 50.5% (up 0.2% from the last poll), while the Labour Party continues a small slide as it struggles to regain a lead it lost late in 2026. Yet, Labour still leads in First Preference Vote indicators (see attached box) by a margin of less than 1%. As will be expanded upon below, ResPublica predicts that if a federal election were to be held tomorrow, the 48th House of Representatives would have no one party with a majority of seats.

Analysis by macroregion shows that Labour are leading the Liberals in the Northeast and Southeast, but trailing the Liberals in both first preference and two-party preferred vote in the Central, Northwest and particularly the Southwest regions. While the ascension of the new Prime Minister saw a temporary bump in Labour's poll ratings, that honeymoon period brought about by his ascension seems to have passed remarkably quickly. According to a sister poll also conducted by TPI, the overwhelming perception of the Kirkland government is that it is seen as a "continuation of the [old] administration" (as observed by 53% of respondents), rather than "a change in the administration" (as observed by 33% of respondents). This may have contributed to the quick ending of the said honeymoon period. The government has struggled to get its message over how it intends to bring an end to the inflationary spiral that has contributed to slowed economic growth, despite most economists agreeing that Tumbra expanding into the Northlands should have contributed to increased economic growth instead.

Respondents were also asked whether they thought that the country was heading in the correct direction or not. On this matter, respondents were particularly split; with 41% of them responding that Tumbra "was heading in the correct direction", and 39% responding that Tumbra "was heading in the wrong direction." The remainder were either neutral on the issue, or declined to answer.

Seat Projection
LAB 298 ▼67
LIB/NAT 285 ▲72
GRN/PRG 31 -0
MOD 17 ▼4
CON 16 ▲1
SDP 3 -0
NDP 0 ▼1
CU 0 ▼1
REF 0 -0
With this polling data, ResPublica's detailed seat-by-seat analysis can produce a projection of how the cards would fall if an election were held tomorrow. On these current polling numbers, ResPublica would predict that Labour would be the largest party in the 48th House of Representatives, but be well short of an overall majority. Labour would, while gaining four seats from the Moderates, lose seventy-two seats to the Liberal Party; over half of which would come in the ten states comprising Western Tumbra. On these numbers, Labour are also on course to lose their only seat in Pesvern, Shepperton West, while former Labour leadership challenger and newly-minted Minister for Regional Development, Amanda Clarke, is also on course to lose her seat of Foxchester in Grantfeldt.

On these numbers, a Labour-Green-Progressive-Moderate coalition would be able to get over the line of 326 required to confirm a first full term for Michael Kirkland, but this arithmetic also ignores the major sticking point between Labour and the Greens, Progressives and Moderates — the Northlands. With Labour's stance on the Northlands drastically differing from any of their potential coalition partners, the Northlands could prove to be a wedge issue that prevents the Labour Party from amassing the numbers they need to cross the 326-vote marker needed to confirm a new Prime Minister on the first ballot, or pass a Budget.

Party Stances on the Northlands (as of June 2027)
Labour: Continue expansion at current pace.
Liberals/Nationals/Christian Union: Speed up expansion, and include private industry in the takeover of the Northlands.
Conservatives/Reform: As with the Liberals/Nationals, while drastically increasing military presence in the Northlands.
Greens: An immediate halt to all Northlands activity, and an immediate withdrawal from the area.
Progressives/Social Democrats: As with the Greens, but also immediate recognition of the nation of the United Clans.
Moderates: An indefinite moratorium on future plans to expand, and a slowing down of the development of current efforts, with a hope of stopping these plans.

To give a better graphical overview of how the country would look like under these numbers, the current map of the House of Representatives is provided below — then the map of the projection by ResPublica. For ease of comparison, all seats held (or projected to be held after the next election) by the National Party are shaded with Liberal colours.

Current Map (2025 results)
ResPublica 2029 Projection

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To view the left map in higher definition, click here. To view the right map in higher definition, click here.
To view the results of the 2025 election with the proper Liberal/National split, click here. The change in Liberal colours is due to a 2026 rebranding that saw the party move to a brighter shade of blue.

The results are stark; under these numbers, Labour would be virtually wiped out in the West, and the Northwestern Red Wall, which was crucial to the electoral strategy of Kenneth Everett in all three of his victories, would see a significant number of seats turn blue as well. Tumbra is still about two years out from a federal election, but if these numbers hold, Tumbra may be in for a protracted period of political gridlock.

LAB to LIB/NAT [71]

Northeast [14]
New Pilkshire [Bechor]
Lowestoft [Bechor]
Redcaster [Bechor]
Outram [Bechor]
Carpenter [Bechor]
Netheravon [Finnley]
Stevens [Napier]
Dalveston [Napier]
Staplewood [Napier]
Woodgrove [Napier]
Kinross [Napier]
Mornington [Napier]
Dunglass [Napier]
Chesham [Napier]

Southeast [4]
Hampton [Dartmoor]
Wimbourne [Dartmoor]
Thorndon [Severn]
Wakefield [Severn]

Central [16]
Kildare [Georgia]
Wynyard [Georgia]
Peckenham [Georgia]
Newborough [Georgia]
Stevenage [Georgia]
Culdee [Hamilton]
Camberwell [Hamilton]
Haverford [Hamilton]
Lynwood [Hamilton]
Bodmin [Raleigh]
Farleigh [Raleigh]
Crowhurst [Raleigh]
Caldecott [Raleigh]
Draycott [Thornton]
Chatsworth [Thornton]
Ardmore [Thornton]

Northwest [23]
Avondale [Gamaliel]
Sheridan [Gamaliel]
Readale South [Gamaliel]
Great Hale [Gamaliel]
Warwick [Grantfeldt]
Foxchester [Grantfeldt]
Millsburgh Creedbrook [Grantfeldt]
Chartwell [Iswilyn]
Othaven [Iswilyn]
Meadowbrook [Marlsbruhe]
Barrenlea [Marlsbruhe]
Harchester South [Marlsbruhe]
Dulwich [Marlsbruhe]
Westham [Marlsbruhe]
Lidsdale [Marlsbruhe]
Norramby [Marlsbruhe]
Ferngill [Marlsbruhe]
Strand [Westmond]
Hambrook [Westmond]
Brookvale [Westmond]
Matlock [Westmond]
Dunsford [Westmond]
Warrington [Westmond]

Southwest [14]
Tatton [Caduke]
Trelmont [Caduke]
Clareview [Caduke]
Glencommon [Fremont]
Cranbrook [Fremont]
Heathfield [Fremont]
Staplehurst [Fremont]
Coburn [Lormark]
Campbell [Lormark]
Keele [Lormark]
Torbonne [Lormark]
Shepperton West [Pesvern]
Ilstead [Turvenal]
Pomeroy [Turvenal]


CU to LIB/NAT [1]
Shepperton East [Pesvern]

NDP to LIB/NAT [1]
Mayfield [Severn]

MOD to LAB [4]
Clark Yale [Finnley]
Dawson [Finnley]
Thirsk [Grantfeldt]
Dewfield [Hamilton]


LIB/NAT to CON [1]
Ravenstoke [Georgia]


For the purposes of this poll, 1,903 people were interviewed through telephone and face-to-face polling. All people interviewed were Tumbran electors aged 18 and above. Electors were asked the following questions:
1. If an election for the federal House of Representatives were to be held tomorrow, which party would your first preference vote go towards?
1a. (Asked if the elector chose a party that was not either the Labour, Liberal or National Parties) If you were to rank the Labour Party and the Liberal/National Party on your voting slip, who would you rank higher?
2. Do you feel that Tumbra, in general, is heading in the correct direction or would you say that things are heading in the wrong direction?
3. In general, would you say that this new government headed by Michael Kirkland is a continuation of the old Kenneth Everett administration, or would you say that it is a change from that administration?
4. Of the Prime Minister, Michael Kirkland, and the Leader of the Opposition, Stephen Williams, who do you think would make the better Prime Minister?
(The following questions were asked on a one-to-five scale, with one representing "strong disapproval" and five representing "strong approval". Respondents were also given the opportunity to respond that they did not have an opinion, which differed from "neutral".)
5. Do you approve of the job that the Prime Minister, Michael Kirkland, is doing currently?
6. Do you approve of the job that the Leader of the Opposition, Stephen Williams, is doing currently?
(The following question was asked on a one-to-five scale, with one representing "much worse" and five representing "much better")
7. In general, would you say that you are better off now than you were five years ago?
Last edited by Tumbra on Wed Apr 06, 2022 7:41 am, edited 9 times in total.
THE FEDERAL REPUBLIC OF TUMBRA
Tumbra - a sprawling, modern federal democratic republic located in Esportiva. Strong economy, strong civil rights, strong freedoms.
Population: 114 million | TLA: TMB | Capital City: Straton | Largest City: Couno
Constitution | Domestic News | Domestic Sports | Wiki Article | A Timely Reminder
President: James D. Clark (Green/Independent) | Prime Minister: Michael Kirkland (Labour)
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Postby Tumbra » Fri May 27, 2022 12:55 am

Stephen Williams: A PM-in-waiting, but is he truly the Red Tory he claims to be?

Elected as a centrist, Stephen Williams' relative centrism has endeared him to a set of voters that were turned off by the Liberals' right-wing credentials; but his Shadow Cabinet conceals a more traditional, conservative bent.


Shadow Cabinet of Stephen Williams

Opposition Leader Stephen Williams
Dep. Opposition Leader Jon Blair

Finance Paul McKenzie
Foreign Affairs Rita Ingham
Home Affairs Stephanie Wilson
Law and Justice Lawrence Newell
Defence Gerald Kingsley
Commerce Michael Greenwood
Health Vivian White
Education Alastair Smith
Transport Cheryl Edwards
Labour Tom Gregory
Agriculture Bryan Lockhart
Urban Development Sen. Henry Weycott
Regional Development Ian Cunningham
Energy and Environment Jessica Collins
Culture Esther Robertson
Immigration* Sen. Spencer McNally
Int'l Development* Bernice Wyatt
Social Affairs Kirsten Bradley
Technology Matthew Westwood
w/o Portfolio Alexander Hurst

Leader of the House Lucas Clark
Leader of the Senate Sen. Russell Voinovich

Names with an orange background indicates
membership of the moderate faction of the Liberals.
Names with a purple background indicates
membership of the conservative faction of the Liberals.
Names with a dark green background indicate
membership of the National Party.

*Cabinet departments marked with an asterisk are
departments that the Liberals have committed
to eliminating.
STRATON: Once called an unelectable "Red Tory", Stephen Williams was widely derided as a "last-chance" candidate when he rose, unopposed, to the leadership of the Liberal/National coalition in 2025. Three years on, however, and things have changed. Riding high on the government's unpopularity, and a perception that he will be a moderating influence on the more radically conservative elements of the Liberal Party that he leads, the Coalition now holds a small, if steady, polling lead. Most pollsters say this is enough not just to deprive Labour of a majority at the next election, but also puts him within touching distance of being the largest party in government.

Williams does lead a tight ship, and plans to make the ship even tighter; the Coalition, who have made government efficiency one of the key planks of their messaging, have committed to eliminating two Cabinet departments — ending the Ministry of Immigration, and placing it under the Ministry of Home Affairs; and by subsuming the Ministry of International Development under the Ministry of Foreign Affairs. Ironically, the Ministry of Immigration was founded by a Liberal government — back in the days of Peter Roscoe (2000-2005) — which goes to prove the extent of which Williams is seemingly determined to carve out a path of his own.

As stated above, it seems to be working — Williams' outspoken positions on centrism seem to have convinced many centrist voters who flocked away from the party from the wilderness years of Osbourne/Monteiro/Lindner to return to the fold. All three were painted by Labour as dangerous conservative ideologues; Osbourne's flamboyant conservatism and record in government as Finance Minister spoke for itself, Monteiro attempted to swing hard to the right to placate conservatives in the party, and Lindner simply wasn't vocal enough to disprove the allegations made by his Labour opponents. In particular, Lindner's appointment is now retrospectively regarded as a costly mistake — more used to the collegial atmosphere of the Senate, he struggled with the bull-pen that was the House of Representatives and often underwhelmed against former Prime Minister Kenneth Everett. The Northlands debate of 2024, where he meekly suggested that Labour were attempting to drag the country's finances underwater by embarking on an expensive vanity project, then voted yes on the bill anyway, seemed to seal his fate. The Liberals made gains in 2025, but fell woefully short of their own targets — requiring their junior coalition partners, the Nationals, to carry them across the 200-seat mark.

So what has Williams, an MP for 19 years now, brought to the table? For one, his outspoken-ness; Williams has never afraid to criticise or rebel against his party when he believed a law should be put in place — or not. That has largely deadened most attacks that Williams himself is a dangerous ideologue, because he is able to simply point at his own statements and voting records to prove otherwise. "The Health Service is not under threat, and never will be, under a Liberal government led by me," is a common refrain at the weekly jousts at Prime Minister's Questions — and it seems to have stuck.

The Party, too, seems to have generally fallen in line — but, most crucially, therein lies the paradox of the Williams leadership. The bickering between the conservative and moderate factions of the Liberal Party are very recent memories. Under Williams, they have come to a cold but tenuous peace; but at the cost of Williams having to stack his Cabinet with several members of the conservative faction. Home Affairs, Defence, Commerce, Health, Culture; all these heavy-hitting departments are staffed by prominent members of the conservatives, but none more so than Law & Justice — headed by Lawrence Newell. Moderates, meanwhile, have had to settle for the smaller portfolios — Finance and Foreign Affairs being the big hitters, but with only 7 of the 21 Cabinet portfolios occupied by members of Williams' moderate faction, the government has a distinct conservative bent towards it.

Newell has made no secret of his leadership ambitions in the past; and reportedly was given the choice of any portfolio by Williams to get his support. He chose Law and Justice — a fortuitous one to choose, given the increasing tensions in the Northlands giving him opportunities to present his "tough on crime" credentials — and has ridden that portfolio ever since. It may not be one of the traditional Big Four portfolios, but it is certainly one that he is satisfied with — and one that will most definitely provide a springboard for his leadership ambitions in the future.

Williams' moderation in his politics has served him exceptionally well across the past three years, and as the federal election creeps closer, he looks more and more like a Prime Minister-in-waiting; but will he be able to focus on his more centrist plans, with a heavy degree of conservatives in his prospective Cabinet? And what of the junior National Party, which also holds significant sway in the affairs of the Coalition, despite having one-tenth of the seats of the Liberals? Williams' previous statements on attempting to unite the right-wing, regionalist, agrarian party have previously angered them — and there are rumors that the Nationals themselves were unhappy with Williams' uncontested ascension to the head of the Coalition.

The future is never certain. Winning elections, as Williams has a great chance of doing in about twelve months' time, is easy. But governing — particularly with the uneasy compromises he has made — could prove to be a whole different beast altogether.
THE FEDERAL REPUBLIC OF TUMBRA
Tumbra - a sprawling, modern federal democratic republic located in Esportiva. Strong economy, strong civil rights, strong freedoms.
Population: 114 million | TLA: TMB | Capital City: Straton | Largest City: Couno
Constitution | Domestic News | Domestic Sports | Wiki Article | A Timely Reminder
President: James D. Clark (Green/Independent) | Prime Minister: Michael Kirkland (Labour)
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Postby Tumbra » Wed Jul 06, 2022 10:08 am

FEDERAL ELECTION 2029

Election campaign thrown into chaos by leaked documents proving allegations of money laundering by Conservatives


COUNO — The Couno Herald can today prove that documents that were leaked to the public tying the Conservative Party of Tumbra to money laundering — a federal crime — are genuine. The 73 gigabytes worth of documents — which were leaked onto the internet via the twii.tur account @IusticiaDike three days ago — painted a tangled, complicated web linking together Alan Spalko, the federal leader of the Conservative Party to a variety of foreign funds and individuals, implicating them all in a "complicated scheme to increase the financial standing of the Conservatives".

Since the leak, doubt has been cast on the veracity of the sources on numerous fronts, including and especially from the leader of the Party itself, Mr. Spalko. A press statement released a few hours after the documents were leaked decried the "witch-hunt" that "the anti-patriotic and South Newlandian-suporting, leftist, anti-Northlands crowd has begun to try and deplatform me and my party," followed by a denial of all the allegations made by the @IusticiaDike account. Several other commentators have also adopted a "wait-and-see" approach on the documents, urging patience as the Internal Revenue Service (IRES) conducts investigations.

IRES confirmed with the Herald that investigations had already begun into Mr. Spalko and the Conservative Party's finances the moment they received a report from a member of the public. "We take all allegations of financial misconduct seriously, and have already begun our investigations into a report that we received," said a spokesperson. The spokesperson declined to offer any further comment on the matter at hand.

A WEB OF LIES

MAY 2026

The alleged acts of money laundering began soon after the 2026 presidential election, according to the leaked documents. In an email, the Conservative Party's treasurer, former MP for Waterford and current Member of the Esportivan Assembly (MEA) Robert Breyer, details the financial situation of the Conservative Party. "In short, we're in the s**t [...] we went for broke on the election campaign, didn't raise as much as we needed and could be well f****d by the time of the next federal election." Conservative leader and 2026 presidential election candidate Alan Spalko's response to the email is simple:

"I will find a way to get us out of this situation."


The rest of Spalko's email details a few "very interested backers" of the Conservative Party who were "captivated by my recent Presidential campaign [...] and who see great potential in our Party in trying to replace the Liberals as the standard-bearers of the right".

Three days later, Spalko flies off to Noviomagus, Nova Anglicana to deliver a speech to a conference held by the Principled Government Foundation, a conservative-leaning political action group. Before flying back to Tumbra, however, Spalko makes an interesting detour to northern Anaia — the remote city-state of Saint Eleanor. He spends forty-eight hours there before flying to Kotzellach City, before heading back to Tumbra; but another email send to Breyer reads simply:

"The meeting was a success. The party's finances are secure. We now need to find a way to get the money into Tumbra."


AUGUST - OCTOBER 2026

Spalko reaches out to Ernest Glendemming, the CFO of Goldhorn Investments Ltd., an investment firm based out of Serrapince. In his first correspondence, he is coy; but after a meeting in the financial capital of Tumbra in late September, they gradually become more overt about what they are about to do. Glendemming and Pierre Musgrave, a lawyer for Musgrave Hillingdon and Smythe LLC and kept on retainer for Goldhorn, advise Spalko on how to get his capital into the country.

"The solution [to the problems you have raised] is simple. Property can be bought throughout the country — our portfolio has quite a few local businesses that fit your criteria, that can generate revenue — and then the money can be invested, by us, into those businesses. You have a Kotzellach bank account — that is perfect for our usage. The money made by those businesses can be reported as income, and whatever amount you wish to transfer to your party can then be transferred. Of course, it will be slow, but this helps to avoid suspicion, and you can pass it off as donations from citizens or whatever."


The reason for this search is Tumbra's restrictive political donations laws, which permits only donations from Tumbran citizens and companies registered in the country. Even then, there are strict, low limits on how much can be donated by a single person or a single business. Donations from Spalko's backers — which were revealed in a June email to be from countries Kotzellach, Xinhua and Rodnaya — would therefore be unable to be moved to the Conservative Party's accounts directly.

Spalko gives his explicit approval to the proposal to the plan. Breyer, as the treasurer of the party, admits he has "misgivings and concerns" about the plan, but in the end concedes that the "financial situation of the Party is in very dire straits, and this seems certain to be a panacea for our problems." He gives approval for the plan.

APRIL 2027

The financial statements for the Conservative Party are published, as per laws requiring the public disclosure of the accounts of political parties. Donations recorded from "the public" have increased by a fair amount; a letter sent to Conservative Party donors thanks them for the "huge increase" in political donations. Documents at this time reveal that most of the donations come from small donors and individuals; but about 35 small businesses, including among them restaurants, salons and independently-owned petrol stations, crop up on the donations list and are highlighted by the @IusticiaDike account.

Documents included within the data leak trace the full details of the ownership. Each of those 35 small businesses can be traced back to Goldhorn having some hand in their creation. An email from Spalko to Glendemming and Musgrave thanks them for their help, saying that they have "saved" the party.

"Your efforts have gone a long way to saving the Conservative Party as we know it [...] I am very pleased with what our partnership has gotten both of us. On other matters, I think it is time for us to expand our partnership...I am willing to sell some of my time to your potential clients [...] in return for a greater commission. Of course this matter cannot be allowed to become public knowledge; it would destroy what we have set up. Let me know."


More and more businesses are added to the repertoire of the Conservative Party-Goldhorn partnership, including, quite ironically, a sandwich store in Straton that is known to be frequented by MPs. The documents include emails from Glendemming in particular thanking Spalko for his time spent with a client, and usually telling him that meetings were usually "successful". An offer to Spalko for a 5% stake in the company, however, is rejected.

This partnership has been extended until today, and there is no sign that this partnership has abated. The Conservative Party's accounts for the 2028/29 financial year included over 70 businesses who can be traced back to Goldhorn. Goldhorn's own capital reserves have more than doubled since 2026, with the investment company having moved offices to a 700sqm office in one of Serrapince's tallest towers in 2028.

WHO WERE THE BACKERS?

The documents, unfortunately, do not explicitly state any of the names of the political donors from overseas; instead only giving them codenames. Three of the largest backers are named as "Jade Crane", "Ruby Mariner" and "Black Bear", while other documents explicitly state their nationality, but not their names. The "Jade Crane" is from Xinhua, the "Ruby Mariner" is from Kotzellach, and the "Black Bear" is from Rodnaya, according to the documents; the last one being a particular note of interest, due to Rodnaya and Tumbra's long-held geopolitical rivalry over influence of the Tamarindian Nations.

WHAT NOW?

The Conservative Party has remained silent on the allegations, with only Spalko's categorical denial of the veracity of all the documents so far. It is understood that almost all the Conservative MPs in the dissolved House of Representatives remain in support of Spalko, but things change rapidly in the Senate — with Grantfeldt Senator Kevin Mulcahy a notable voice of dissent, appearing on television the night of the leaks. In that television appearance, he said that he "did not condone" any misconduct by the Conservatives, and would "greatly reconsider his position in the party" if the leaks were true.

Opinion polls conducted on the matter have been wildly negative; an opinion poll recorded a drop in support of about 5% nationwide, down from 7% in most pre-dissolution polls to just 2% in the first preference poll. If this were repeated nationwide, the Conservatives would drop from their current 15 seats to just 2; with a possibility of being wiped out nationwide. Spalko has been bellicose at the only rally conducted since the leaks; in Iswilyn, he decried the leaks as a "conspiracy" against his party.
THE FEDERAL REPUBLIC OF TUMBRA
Tumbra - a sprawling, modern federal democratic republic located in Esportiva. Strong economy, strong civil rights, strong freedoms.
Population: 114 million | TLA: TMB | Capital City: Straton | Largest City: Couno
Constitution | Domestic News | Domestic Sports | Wiki Article | A Timely Reminder
President: James D. Clark (Green/Independent) | Prime Minister: Michael Kirkland (Labour)
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Postby Tumbra » Thu Jul 07, 2022 7:50 am

FEDERAL ELECTION 2029

Greens, Progressives announce electoral alliance; Cressida Granger announced as 'PM candidate', Conservatives see Senate exodus

FORMATION OF PROGRESSIVE-GREEN ALLIANCE

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STRATON — The Green Party and the Progressive Party today formalised an electoral partnership that was rumoured to be in the works since the dissolution of Parliament, and effectively continues an existing arrangement that began during the 2026 Senate elections. Speaking at the headquarters of the Green Party of Tumbra, the leaders of the Green and Progressive Parties — Anna Palmer, Norman Collins and Cressida Granger — announced that their partnership would be "an actual electoral alliance" in the hope of "presenting a unified alternative to the duopoly of Labour and Liberals that have not offered any concrete solutions to the problems of our times."

The announcement comes five days ahead of the closure of nominations for the 650 constituencies of the House of Representatives. Ms. Granger announced that "arrangements will be made" to ensure that the Greens and Progressives are represented fairly in terms of candidates; it is estimated that about 50 of the Progressives' 200 candidates will step down in favour of the Greens' candidate in those seats; the split in candidates is estimated to be about 500 Greens to 150 Progressives. For the first time, Ms. Palmer said, "the Alliance will be contesting in every seat" as "we believe the time for an alternative vision for Tumbra is now."

The newly-formed electoral alliance is not seen to have any chance of winning government on Election Day — most polls point at a hung parliament, with the opposition Liberal/National coalition poised to take the largest number of seats — but the Alliance also nominated Progressive Party leader and MP for Penhurst Cressida Granger as the party's Prime Minister nominee. Granger, widely considered to be a star on the left-wing of Tumbran politics, was formerly a member of the socialist left Social Democratic Party until she left over accusations of transphobia and differences in ideology. She joined the Progressives — a group of ex-Labour MPs who left the party after the vote on the Northlands — and became the party's leader after they lost all but eight of their seats in a disastrous 2025 election campaign.

Reactions to the announcement of the Alliance have been largely positive — most harken back to the 2026 Senate elections, when the Progressives announced that it would run its candidates under the banner of the Green Party and were largely seen as a driving force behind the ticket's surge from 10 to 28 seats in the Senate — but the announcement of Granger as the alliance's Prime Minister candidate was met with derision in some corners, with political commentator Martin Fields on Aurora ridiculing the whole exercise.

With the apparent decimation of the Conservative Party on the cards, however — the money laundering scandal that exploded just after Parliament was dissolved has led to an almost precipitous drop in their fortunes — the newly-formed Alliance could find themselves in the position of kingmaker come Election Day, as Tumbra continues to head towards a hung parliament.

FORTUNES OF CONSERVATIVE PARTY DIP AS 6 SENATORS LEAVE PARTY

STRATON — Six Senators today announced that they were leaving the Conservative Party, with two also announcing that they were joining the right-wing New Democratic Party while the other four announced that they would be sitting in an "Independent Conservative Group," while calling upon their other colleagues to do the same.

Senators Caroline Westwood of Severn and Edward Short of Dartmoor, both first elected in the Conservatives' navy wave of 2026, announced that they would be linking up with current Member of Parliament for Mayfield George Dempsey in the right-wing New Democratic Party. The party, which was formed in 2023 amidst criticism over then-Liberal leader Peter Lindner's leadership, is a strong proponent of free-market economics and "the protection of free speech", which Senators Westwood and Short said "clearly aligned with their views of what Tumbra should be."

Meanwhile, Senators Francis Mulcahy of Grantfeldt, Roger Wainwright of Caduke, Nicholas Richmond of Marcato and Nicole Sheppard of Alexandria announced that "in lieu of recent events", they were resigning the Conservative party whip and would sit as an "Independent Conservative Group" while they decided their future in the Senate. The news comes as a blow to Alan Spalko's statements that the Conservative Party was "wholly united" behind his leadership, as the four released a joint statement that they had "no knowledge" of Spalko's alleged money laundering and that they "could not condone misconduct" from their party leadership. The Conservative Senate caucus leader, Senator Kathleen Nielsen of Georgia, released a statement announcing her "deep disappointment" in the 6 Senators who left the caucus, castigating them for "having a lack of faith in the party leadership over these false accusations of wrongdoing."
THE FEDERAL REPUBLIC OF TUMBRA
Tumbra - a sprawling, modern federal democratic republic located in Esportiva. Strong economy, strong civil rights, strong freedoms.
Population: 114 million | TLA: TMB | Capital City: Straton | Largest City: Couno
Constitution | Domestic News | Domestic Sports | Wiki Article | A Timely Reminder
President: James D. Clark (Green/Independent) | Prime Minister: Michael Kirkland (Labour)
U-18 World Cup 13 Champions/Di Bradini Cup 51 Champions

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Postby Tumbra » Sun Jul 10, 2022 11:40 am

FEDERAL ELECTION 2029

The Parties and their Planks: A Quick Guide To The Policies


STRATON: With the federal election little over a month away, the Tumbran Broadcasting Corporation's VoteChart has been used over eight million times, helping voters find the party they agree most with. At the mid-point of the election campaign, here's a brief run-down on the various major parties' campaigns so far, their policy planks, and their chances for the election.

LABOUR

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SEATS AT DISSOLUTION: 364/650
LEADER: Michael Kirkland (MP for Newgate, Bechor)

Labour, the winner of the past three general elections under experienced leader Kenneth Everett, has been facing what some commentators call "inertia in government." The phenomenon refers to governments being seen as having done "all they can" after about three or four terms in government, and thus has a problem attempting to angle itself in a new direction that might backfire on them. That has been in full force this election; Labour's manifesto, Confidence for the Future, was criticised for being notably light on ideas — an upgrade to the nation's increasingly beleaguered communications infrastructure and greater public spending on childcare, while raising the minimum wage being three of the manifesto's big promises — and the Labour campaign has been relatively light on policy still, with much focus being put on the Prime Minister and his handling of the crisis in the Northlands.

"The problem is that the Prime Minister just isn't as charismatic as Kenneth Everett," says Dr. Mark Blumenthal, associate professor of political studies at Lakewood University. "The Prime Minister hasn't come off as a very effacious speaker; he was regarded as second in the debates, by about four points, to Stephen Williams, and the government still has a lot on its plate when it comes to the economy and inflation." Economic growth has flagged in Labour's third term, with the economy only growing by 0.6% quarter-on-quarter; meanwhile, inflation has risen to about 4.3% in the past year with wages only rising by a quarter of that. Labour's solution, as outlined in their manifesto, has been to take advantage of the Northlands and invest further in infrastructure in the west of the country — possibly offering an olive branch to the half of the country that has turned against Labour in the past decade.

Insiders from the Labour campaign have admitted that it will be "very difficult" to win the election, but there is still a general tone of optimism from the campaign — even as poll after poll shows it losing its majority in government.

LIBERAL/NATIONAL COALITION

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SEATS AT DISSOLUTION: 214/650
LEADERS: Stephen Williams (Liberal, MP for Yarwood, Bechor), Jon Blair (National, MP for Lynham, Clearmont)

After twelve years in the wilderness, the Liberal/National Coalition seem on the cusp of retaking power under the leadership of the centrist Stephen Williams. The Coalition's manifesto, Real Solutions for a Real Future, is a self-described tome of "sober solutions" for a "decade-long spending spree by the Labour government." The campaign, however, has focused a bit more on the Northlands than on the economy, with the Leader of the Opposition Stephen Williams putting constant pressure on the government on the issue of the Northlands.

The manifesto itself criticises Labour's refusal to include private industry in the takeover of the Northlands, claiming that "private industry will be able to bring the dividends to the Tumbran people much quicker." Much of their manifesto circles around the Northlands, with security policy also being highlighted; the Liberals have been very keen to highlight that they will take a harder line on the United Clans, the terrorist organisation claiming sovereignty over the Northlands. The Shadow Minister for Defence, Gerald Kingsley, paid a visit to the Northlands several times over the course of the campaign; despite the Northlands themselves only electing three non-voting delegates to the House of Representatives at the election.

Much of the Liberals' policy has also revolved around smaller government, with Williams during the leaders' debate claiming that the country needed a "new relationship" between the federal government and the states. This is likely a reference to the often-fractious relationship that the states and the federal government had during the Everett era, and the Liberals' long-term commitment to letting state governments govern more; but Williams, ever the bold reformer, proclaimed that the "current system of federalism is failing Tumbra," in the single most viral moment of the campaign so far.

ALLIANCE

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SEATS AT DISSOLUTION: 31/650 (combined)
LEADER: Cressida Granger (Progressive, PM candidate; MP for Penhurst, Washington)

The alliance between the Greens and the Progressive Party — which actually first began in 2026, but was formalised days into the 2029 election campaign — has seen its poll numbers shoot up, with its bold step of naming a Prime Ministerial candidate — Cressida Granger — seemingly doing well with the electorate, despite having been rubbished in certain corners of the political spectrum. Their manifesto, titled An Alternative Government For An Alternative Age, sets out the single largest problem that it feels Tumbra is going through — that it has taken on an unfair amount of bad press by launching an invasion of the Northlands, and both major parties are perfectly content to allow it to continue. The Alliance has so far also been one of two major parties to fully commit to a withdrawal from the Northlands, the other being the hard-left Social Democratic Party.

The manifesto, which describes itself as "the most radical plan to save Tumbra from a generation of inequality and carrying on the generational trauma of an unfair economic system," includes an immediate push towards renewable energy, including a commitment to have Tumbra's energy be generated by 100% renewable sources by 2040, while also advocating for a huge increase in social services provided by the government — all of which would be funded by a large increase in the top bracket of personal income tax and corporate tax — has been wildly popular amongst the younger generations. A poll conducted by Woolton & Bluefield Ltd. showing the Greens as the most popular party amongst 18-25 year old voters for the first time. Other planks calling for electoral reform — proportional representation has long been a policy plank of the Green Party — have been received similarly well, with a plan for Senate reform making it easier for independent candidates to get elected gaining popularity in the wake of the Conservative Party's scandals. With claims that "discontent with both major parties is at an all-time high," Ms. Granger's reach-out to the younger, economically disaffected voters entering the job market for the first time has worked wonders — and most polls have put its support in about the 13-15% range, which would mean the highest third party effort since the Moderates won 11% of the vote in 2013.

This, however, would not translate into very many seats; most polls put its final seat count in the high 30s to low 40 range, which, while still being a high-water mark for the Greens in an election, would be way off the 326 required for a government.

aMODERATESa

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SEATS AT DISSOLUTION: 21/650
LEADER: William Boyd (MP for Tamworth, Marlsbruhe)

Flagging numbers and a lukewarm reception to their program meant that the Moderates' campaign has been criticised as being "largely uninspired," with their manifesto's open-ness to an interest rate hike to combat inflation being the most controversial part of their campaign. It has been the most "intellectual" of the campaigns, with Moderate leader William Boyd painstakingly painting the party as the party of the reasonable centre, taking ideas from both the left and right. Unfortunately, it hasn't been received well; the interest rate hike policy was lambasted in most left-leaning media, which is where the Moderates tended to get most of their voters in elections past. Its policy on the Northlands has also been criticised for not going far enough on either end; while supporting a ramp-up in military presence in the Northlands, it also supports dialogue with the United Clans.

With its anti-establishment current usurped by the Alliance, and rapidly hemorrhaging voter support themselves, the Moderates are estimated to end the election on less than 15 seats, which would be its lowest seat tally since 1984.

CONSERVATIVES
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SEATS AT DISSOLUTION: 17/650
LEADER: Alan Spalko (MP for Nottingham, Georgia)

Perhaps the party generating the highest amount of controversy, any policy statements the Conservatives have made have been overshadowed by the money laundering allegations, with leader Alan Spalko going all guns-blazing on denying the allegations. The controversy has seen a precipitous drop in the Conservatives' poll numbers, with a complete wipe-out from Parliament not out of the question according to recent polls. Their policies have mainly focused on foreign affairs; with their main policies both advocating a unilateral withdrawal from the Esportivan Union and a major military build-up in the Northlands, while simultaneously guiding Tumbra towards "looking inwards" instead of attempting to become a bigger player on the global stage.

Their manifesto and any policy statements, however, have been far from the major focus of the campaign; with much of it focusing on their leader, Alan Spalko. Spalko, the Conservative candidate in the 2026 presidential election, has been at the helm of the party for nine years now; and is continually eager to quash rumours that his party is slowly losing faith in him, although the allegations have resulted in six Conservative Senators leaving the caucus, with rumours of more to follow. Electoral oblivion is a likely prospect for the former firebrand populist, who shot to power over the old guard of the Conservatives in 2020 over a platform of needing to aggressively expand and spread their message. A half decade of growth was followed by another half decade of stagnation, with the presidential campaign catapulting Spalko to international recognition while sending the Conservatives' finances into a death spiral.

SOCIAL DEMOCRATS
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SEATS AT DISSOLUTION: 3/650
LEADER: Justin Spearing (MP for Palling, Clearmont)

The SDP's manifesto — A Letter To The Working Class — is typically Social Democratic; calling for ever greater government intervention in the economy, while decrying the Northlands as an imperialist project. Much of the campaign has been focused on the new leader of the party, Justin Spearing; the 49 year-old proudly touts himself as the "son of a coal miner" and "proudly socially conservative." This marks the final stage in the Social Democrats turning away from the social progressivism that brought them their renaissance in the 1990s and embracing the social conservatism of the Coal Belt in Clearmont.

A key part of their manifesto that has generated controversy has been a promised ban on transgender kids participating in sports, and a crackdown of gender-neutral language in government; but with little chance of their candidates being elected outside the three seats they already hold, little attention has been paid to them otherwise. They look likely to hold these seats due to an implicit deal they have with the Labour Party; where Labour doesn't campaign too much in seats the SDP hold, in order to guarantee that a left-wing party at least holds those seats. In return, the SDP doesn't actively campaign too hard against Labour — much of the fury the SDP manifesto holds towards the Northlands invasion notably isn't directed at Labour; but rather the Liberals for promising to continue and ramp up the invasion.

2029 Federal Election Polls/Seat Estimation (90% confidence band)
LAB 36.7% [276 — 298]
LIB 39.9% [282 — 316]
ALL 13.6% [35 — 47]
MOD 4.6% [8 — 15]
CON 1.7% [0 — 6]
SDP 1.2% [2 — 3]
OTH 2.3% [0 — 2]

Probability of overall outcomes
LIB largest party 42%
LAB largest party 33%
No overall control 19%
LIB majority 4%
LAB majority 2%
Last edited by Tumbra on Sun Jul 10, 2022 11:51 am, edited 1 time in total.
THE FEDERAL REPUBLIC OF TUMBRA
Tumbra - a sprawling, modern federal democratic republic located in Esportiva. Strong economy, strong civil rights, strong freedoms.
Population: 114 million | TLA: TMB | Capital City: Straton | Largest City: Couno
Constitution | Domestic News | Domestic Sports | Wiki Article | A Timely Reminder
President: James D. Clark (Green/Independent) | Prime Minister: Michael Kirkland (Labour)
U-18 World Cup 13 Champions/Di Bradini Cup 51 Champions


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