[TWI-Only] [Semi-Open] [OOC] The Rains

[North Oscotia]

I did have plans for Oscotia's Queen Charlotte IV to visit Atolla and maybe a goodwill hearts and minds tour of the islands.

[Ioudaia]

@Jeriga: since the IC has been a little slow for some mysterious reason could you put off rolling for the election odds until sometime next week? I might be able to get a post out by tomorrow or Monday, but I'm still a bit over-turkeyed to post tonight.

[Jeriga]

@Jeriga: since the IC has been a little slow for some mysterious reason could you put off rolling for the election odds until sometime next week? I might be able to get a post out by tomorrow or Monday, but I'm still a bit over-turkeyed to post tonight.

Yeah. I have to take my exam on wednesday and I'll be done after that for like a month.

[Ainslie]

The second story in this news is probably quite relevant to those involved in the Atollan election arc of The Rains: viewtopic.php?f=4&t=337003&p=39182137#p39182137

[Alteran Republics]

The second story in this news is probably quite relevant to those involved in the Atollan election arc of The Rains: viewtopic.php?f=4&t=337003&p=39182137#p39182137

I'm genuinely interested in seeing how the election turns out; fingers crossed the CUP can gain back some votes.

[Ioudaia]

The second story in this news is probably quite relevant to those involved in the Atollan election arc of The Rains: viewtopic.php?f=4&t=337003&p=39182137#p39182137

Yup. And my post has been overtaken by events. I've been struggling with computer problems, which are now resolved enough to get back to NS, but not entirely fixed.

I have a couple of questions:

1) How are we changing the election mechanics to reflect multiple parties?

2) Why is the Atollan government having such problems with rebuilding, maintaining order, and so on? Simply a lack of aid? Or do they have other problems besides?

[Ainslie]

The second story in this news is probably quite relevant to those involved in the Atollan election arc of The Rains: viewtopic.php?f=4&t=337003&p=39182137#p39182137

Yup. And my post has been overtaken by events. I've been struggling with computer problems, which are now resolved enough to get back to NS, but not entirely fixed.

I have a couple of questions:

1) How are we changing the election mechanics to reflect multiple parties?

2) Why is the Atollan government having such problems with rebuilding, maintaining order, and so on? Simply a lack of aid? Or do they have other problems besides?

1) I'll talk to thuz about it

2) It's not that they're having big problems - rather it is the extent of the damage and disruption. It takes time even for moderately advanced places to get up from their feet, and here we're talking a second world capital at best - it's very very heavy destruction in Atolla, particularly in Atolla City. It's not for lack of aid - there's probably enough aid going in, its probably more that everything takes time (especially more time when the foundational utilities are knocked out too). Then there's the people in the forests that no one really cares about as well.

They haven't really got problems maintaining order as per se, it's more infrastructure and utilities problems.

[Jeriga]

The second story in this news is probably quite relevant to those involved in the Atollan election arc of The Rains: viewtopic.php?f=4&t=337003&p=39182137#p39182137

Yup. And my post has been overtaken by events. I've been struggling with computer problems, which are now resolved enough to get back to NS, but not entirely fixed.

I have a couple of questions:

1) How are we changing the election mechanics to reflect multiple parties?

2) Why is the Atollan government having such problems with rebuilding, maintaining order, and so on? Simply a lack of aid? Or do they have other problems besides?

I'm not sure. It would help if people posted about what their parties are doing.

[North Oscotia]

I just had a thought (Bad I know ... )

Oscotia would be willing to build and maintain a weather monitoring station in Atolla along with a C130 Weather plane to help prevent future 'Rains' .

[Ainslie]

I just had a thought (Bad I know ... )

Oscotia would be willing to build and maintain a weather monitoring station in Atolla along with a C130 Weather plane to help prevent future 'Rains' .

I mean there is one on Sud, so there's not really a need for a monitoring station. As for a C130 weather plane - how would it prevent future disasters?

[North Oscotia]

I just had a thought (Bad I know ... )

Oscotia would be willing to build and maintain a weather monitoring station in Atolla along with a C130 Weather plane to help prevent future 'Rains' .

I mean there is one on Sud, so there's not really a need for a monitoring station. As for a C130 weather plane - how would it prevent future disasters?

Additional means to recon weather further afield and provide data on seasonal weather patterns / changes

[Alteran Republics]

I mean there is one on Sud, so there's not really a need for a monitoring station. As for a C130 weather plane - how would it prevent future disasters?

Additional means to recon weather further afield and provide data on seasonal weather patterns / changes

Would satellites and radar not fulfil that requirement?

[North Oscotia]

Most likely. I was thinking on a cost basis

[Ainslie]

DECEMBER 2021 ELECTION UPDATE
(an update on Atolla only)

Atolla
Current IC thread date - 9 December 2021

Following the withdrawal of Jeriga from The Rains RP, I am assuming control of Atolla’s polling. The first opinion poll will come out on the 10th (which is within about 30 hours). I’ll be abandoning the DnD-style rolls system since I have limited capabilities to do that. Hence, I’ll manually take control of the odds of the election, weighing up the varying contributions and moves that are done by the political parties and the backers of them.

The election will be on December 17 and polling will be released in line with the activity in the roleplay rather than using any fixed date. Regardless of activity, a poll on the day before the election is guaranteed.

As for the manual scoring, these are the varying factors I’ll be considering as I toggle up and down the varying popularity in the eyes of the Atollans. Larger commitments or endorsements will attract larger changes in polling and hearts and minds being won over and vice versa. The factors that will be considered are:

• Direct investment from foreign nations, contingent on particular candidates winning (aka Candidate B outlines a policy, gets foreign support from another nation to make it happen)
• Investment into infrastructure 9/10 times will boost the incumbent (Kelau, Atollans United Party). The exception of this is infrastructure that aligns with the values of another candidate - for example, a school that teaches Nyssic being built/scholarships to learn Alteran will naturally offer a modest boost to the numbers of Cowell’s CUP (pro-altera) party.
• Preference deals - not sure how exactly this one will play out, but the announcement of varying parties offering preference deals with one another may alter the popularity of different people.
• Overt support - tours by prominent people from your nations backing certain candidates, speeches on behalf of candidates, endorsements from foreign officials will normally boost the rating of a particular candidate.
• Covert support - offering up dirt, intelligence/counterintelligence, donations etc will boost the rating of a particular candidate
• Encouraging similar values - using the media or communications in various ways to influence the ideology and opinions of the Atollans. For example, if there is a bunch of people suddenly lobbying/advocating for trade unionism, this will likely boost Kakoa’s (Community Party of Atolla) numbers.
• Increased connection/integration - promoting economic or diplomatic integration (if the Atollans like you) are likely to boost your preferred candidate’s numbers.

What is currently being accounted for:

• Home-building efforts by the Ioudaian and Martenyikan Governments is currently boosting Kelau (AUP) numbers.
• Infrastructure recovery efforts by the Domananian Government is currently boosting Kelau (AUP) numbers.
• Christian NGOs have been sent to increase religious influence in Atolla. No effect on any of the candidates for now - mostly because there’s been no mention of religion IC with regards to Atolla.
• The Solaryi Government is aiding in the rebuild, strengthening and upgrading of the University of Wake Islands campus in Atolla. This involves professors being sent in and increased integration between UWI Atolla and Solaryi universities. Currently offering a modest boost to Kelau (AUP) numbers.
• The Uprean Government is currently taking in temporary climate refugees to offer Atollans a roof over their heads and a potential new start. It is not yet clear which candidate will benefit from this.
• The Ioudaian Government has allowed Kelau to restore stable, renewable energy to the Atollan people. This has significantly boosted Kelau (AUP) numbers.
• Atollans eagerly await the visit of Queen Charlotte IV of Oscotia and are intrigued at the reason and motivations behind the visit.
• Atollans have heard rumours of the potential for businesses from Belantica to come and invest in the nation. They look forward to hearing more about how the Atollan economy could be diversified and are likely to be persuaded to be more amicable to a candidate the nation backs following any investment made.

Opinion Polls - UWI/Atolla News opinion poll 8 December 2021

Presidential Candidates

• Lewen KELAU, Atollans United Party - 41%
• Lolan COWELL, Commonwealth and Unionist Party - 33%
• Noa KAKOA, Community Party of Atolla - 18%
• Auna GEN, Throngist Party of Atolla - 8%

If the election were called today, who would be Atolla’s next President?
Lewen Kelau (narrowly), based on natural/unaltered preference flows from those who would have Cowell as their #1 candidate.

Party Support

• Atollans United Party - 53%
• Commonwealth and Unionist Party - 27%
• Community Party of Atolla - 15%
• Throngist Party of Atolla - 5%

If the election were called today, what party would be in control of the Atollan Congress?
Atollans United Party, by a small majority.

Feel free to reproduce these in news reports and in IC situations as you wish. I’m not sure whether I’ll be posting them IC, but you can treat this as if it is canon for the purposes of this RP.

If you got any ideas, thoughts or comments feel free to let me know here.

[Ainslie]

Atollan General Elections, 96% counted

Presidential Two-Candidate Preferred
Lolan Cowell - 58%
Lewen Kelau - 42%

Party Support
• Atollans United Party - 45%
  
• Commonwealth and Unionist Party - 37%
• Community Party of Atolla - 10%
• Throngist Party of Atolla - 8%

Two Party Preferred
Commonwealth and Unionist Party - 52% / 48% - Atollans United Party

Lolan Cowell is the 2nd President of the Republic of Atolla, leading a majority Commonwealth and Unionist Party. However, at the senate level they either need Community Party support or convince a few AUP senators to cross the floor.