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Russia-Ukraine conflict heating back up?

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Senkaku
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Russia-Ukraine conflict heating back up?

Postby Senkaku » Sun Apr 11, 2021 9:06 am


You may or may not have heard that tens of thousands of Russian troops are massing near the Ukrainian border as the Kremlin ramps up aggressive rhetoric— if not, let me be the bearer of bad news! Some observers think it’s a bluff, but whether it is or not, it’s a pretty scary situation— the Kremlin is looking for a win after domestic setbacks, the Ukrainians are begging Turkey for help (a NATO ally, even if they are the alliance’s problem child), and the usual suspects in the Blob on our side of the pond are already starting to ramp up their own rhetoric in response, I can only assume in case a war actually does start and they need to get the American people to go along with it. I always thought it would be a war over Taiwan that would end up getting me killed, if I’m being honest, but if the Russians attempt a more extensive invasion against Ukraine (which they’ve openly dreamed of re-annexing), it could very well force the West’s hand, especially if the Turks get involved.

So, what do we think is going to happen? Is all this just saber-rattling and posturing? Are we about to realize Comrade Posadas’s dream after the Turks drag NATO into the war? Are the Russians just going to take another salami slice of Ukraine and go home? Or is there some other option you think might play out?

My pessimistic side thinks we might all be fucked, but realistically I think there’s probably just going to be another phase of intense fighting that the US once again manages to stay out of directly. But after everything that’s happened in the past... five-plus years..? I’m prepared to be surprised.
Last edited by Senkaku on Sun Apr 11, 2021 9:08 am, edited 4 times in total.
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Trollzyn the Infinite
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Postby Trollzyn the Infinite » Sun Apr 11, 2021 9:09 am

Senkaku wrote:
You may or may not have heard that tens of thousands of Russian troops are massing near the Ukrainian border as the Kremlin ramps up aggressive rhetoric— if not, let me be the bearer of bad news! Some observers think it’s a bluff, but whether it is or not, it’s a pretty scary situation— the Kremlin is looking for a win after domestic setbacks, the Ukrainians are begging Turkey for help (a NATO ally, even if they are the alliance’s problem child), and the usual suspects in the Blob on our side of the pond are already starting to ramp up their own rhetoric in response, I can only assume in case a war actually does start and they need to get the American people to go along with it. I always thought it would be a war over Taiwan that would end up getting me killed, if I’m being honest, but if the Russians attempt a more extensive invasion against Ukraine (which they’ve openly dreamed of re-annexing), it could very well force the West’s hand, especially if the Turks get involved.

So, what do we think is going to happen? Is all this just saber-rattling and posturing? Are we about to realize Comrade Posadas’s dream after the Turks drag NATO into the war? Are the Russians just going to take another salami slice of Ukraine and go home? Or is there some other option you think might play out?

My pessimistic side thinks we might all be fucked, but realistically I think there’s probably just going to be another phase of intense fighting that the US once again manages to stay out of directly. But after everything that’s happened in the past... five-plus years..? I’m prepared to be surprised.


You've built a lot of "ifs" into this OP of yours.
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Senkaku
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Postby Senkaku » Sun Apr 11, 2021 9:11 am

Trollzyn the Infinite wrote:
Senkaku wrote:
You may or may not have heard that tens of thousands of Russian troops are massing near the Ukrainian border as the Kremlin ramps up aggressive rhetoric— if not, let me be the bearer of bad news! Some observers think it’s a bluff, but whether it is or not, it’s a pretty scary situation— the Kremlin is looking for a win after domestic setbacks, the Ukrainians are begging Turkey for help (a NATO ally, even if they are the alliance’s problem child), and the usual suspects in the Blob on our side of the pond are already starting to ramp up their own rhetoric in response, I can only assume in case a war actually does start and they need to get the American people to go along with it. I always thought it would be a war over Taiwan that would end up getting me killed, if I’m being honest, but if the Russians attempt a more extensive invasion against Ukraine (which they’ve openly dreamed of re-annexing), it could very well force the West’s hand, especially if the Turks get involved.

So, what do we think is going to happen? Is all this just saber-rattling and posturing? Are we about to realize Comrade Posadas’s dream after the Turks drag NATO into the war? Are the Russians just going to take another salami slice of Ukraine and go home? Or is there some other option you think might play out?

My pessimistic side thinks we might all be fucked, but realistically I think there’s probably just going to be another phase of intense fighting that the US once again manages to stay out of directly. But after everything that’s happened in the past... five-plus years..? I’m prepared to be surprised.


You've built a lot of "ifs" into this OP of yours.

Well, there’s a lot of “ifs” in the situation still, so yes...
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Postby Washington Resistance Army » Sun Apr 11, 2021 9:11 am

Tbqh I think Putin is going to back down and it's going to just be saber rattling, not an invasion or anything. Russia looks decent on paper but it got fought to a standstill in eastern Ukraine by a motley collection of militias and poorly armed and organized Ukrainian military units. Russia is probably the best example of a paper tiger nowadays and I would be genuinely shocked if they tried something that aggressive.
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Postby Arisyan » Sun Apr 11, 2021 9:15 am

Hasn't Ukraine already kind of been having a civil war/de facto war with Russia lately? The Donetsk/Luhansk situation is confusing I admit. In any case, not surprising. He sees the country as weak and hopes to further cause instability within it. Either that or he's just taking it as a precaution.
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Postby The Dodo Republic » Sun Apr 11, 2021 9:19 am

oh shit. OH FUCK.

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Postby Trollzyn the Infinite » Sun Apr 11, 2021 9:20 am

Senkaku wrote:
Trollzyn the Infinite wrote:
You've built a lot of "ifs" into this OP of yours.

Well, there’s a lot of “ifs” in the situation still, so yes...


I mean right now it's just Russians massing on the border. This isn't a sign of anything other than just that. It's a threat, sure. That much is clear. Ukraine needs to respond appropriately. But right now that's all it is: a threat.

If the Turks get involved (unlikely)
If Russia actually crosses the border (unlikely)
If NATO gets involved (unlikely)
If a war in Ukraine ends with a nuclear exchange (unlikely)

Your worst-case-scenario approach hinges on a lot of unlikely "ifs" is all I'm saying. Not that any of these things are impossible, but none of them are very likely. I'd rather wait and see than just speculate wildly.
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Postby Senkaku » Sun Apr 11, 2021 9:25 am

Trollzyn the Infinite wrote:
Senkaku wrote:Well, there’s a lot of “ifs” in the situation still, so yes...


I mean right now it's just Russians massing on the border. This isn't a sign of anything other than just that. It's a threat, sure. That much is clear. Ukraine needs to respond appropriately. But right now that's all it is: a threat.

If the Turks get involved (unlikely)
If Russia actually crosses the border (unlikely)
If NATO gets involved (unlikely)
If a war in Ukraine ends with a nuclear exchange (unlikely)

Your worst-case-scenario approach hinges on a lot of unlikely "ifs" is all I'm saying. Not that any of these things are impossible, but none of them are very likely. I'd rather wait and see than just speculate wildly.

Thats why I said in the OP that realistically I do not expect a worst case scenario lol, I’m just laying out what the worst case scenario would be because I’m not gonna completely rule it out after the year we’ve had
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Postby Trollzyn the Infinite » Sun Apr 11, 2021 9:29 am

Senkaku wrote:
Trollzyn the Infinite wrote:
I mean right now it's just Russians massing on the border. This isn't a sign of anything other than just that. It's a threat, sure. That much is clear. Ukraine needs to respond appropriately. But right now that's all it is: a threat.

If the Turks get involved (unlikely)
If Russia actually crosses the border (unlikely)
If NATO gets involved (unlikely)
If a war in Ukraine ends with a nuclear exchange (unlikely)

Your worst-case-scenario approach hinges on a lot of unlikely "ifs" is all I'm saying. Not that any of these things are impossible, but none of them are very likely. I'd rather wait and see than just speculate wildly.

Thats why I said in the OP that realistically I do not expect a worst case scenario lol, I’m just laying out what the worst case scenario would be because I’m not gonna completely rule it out after the year we’ve had


Nuclear exchange, even as a worst case scenario, is still pretty unrealistic. I don't think the Russians are that crazy, nor do I believe they're willing to destroy the world over Ukraine of all countries.
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Postby Punished UMN » Sun Apr 11, 2021 9:37 am

Washington Resistance Army wrote:Tbqh I think Putin is going to back down and it's going to just be saber rattling, not an invasion or anything. Russia looks decent on paper but it got fought to a standstill in eastern Ukraine by a motley collection of militias and poorly armed and organized Ukrainian military units. Russia is probably the best example of a paper tiger nowadays and I would be genuinely shocked if they tried something that aggressive.

I don't think that's accurate. They didn't get fought to a standstill, they achieved their immediate objectives and decided to halt further escalation.
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Postby Risottia » Sun Apr 11, 2021 10:27 am

Senkaku wrote: I can only assume in case a war actually does start and they need to get the American people to go along with it.


And judging from the 2008 Russo-Georgian war, where the Georgians placed themselves in the same situation as Ukraine, the Americans will leave them to their own devices as they cannot go toe to toe with Russia in Eastern Europe.
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Postby The Huskar Social Union » Sun Apr 11, 2021 11:29 am

Washington Resistance Army wrote:Tbqh I think Putin is going to back down and it's going to just be saber rattling, not an invasion or anything. Russia looks decent on paper but it got fought to a standstill in eastern Ukraine by a motley collection of militias and poorly armed and organized Ukrainian military units. Russia is probably the best example of a paper tiger nowadays and I would be genuinely shocked if they tried something that aggressive.

I hope its just sabre rattling and nothing amounts to it. And even though im not a huge fan of wars irl, if Russia does try and invade Ukraine i hope the US and Europe back up Ukraine to try and get the Russians to back down.
Last edited by The Huskar Social Union on Sun Apr 11, 2021 11:30 am, edited 2 times in total.
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Postby Greater Cosmicium » Sun Apr 11, 2021 11:35 am

This buildup appears to have started after Zelensky signed decree 117/2021, essentially making it Ukraine's goal to retake Crimea:
https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/russian-tanks-move-toward-ukraine-globe-braces-world-war-3 (yeah yeah, maybe not the most reliable source ever, but you can't be picky sometimes)
https://www.president.gov.ua/documents/1172021-37533 (the original decree, in Ukrainian)
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Postby Saiwania » Sun Apr 11, 2021 12:08 pm

Ukraine and Russia are already at war on a de facto basis, so there is no downside for Ukraine in my mind to counterattack Russia in a big way. The new frontline should have a Ukrainian massing of troops and materiel of equivalent strength in response to what Russia is doing on their side or better yet, rain down mortars and artillery and airstrikes on the locations where Russia is massing troops.

The best defense is a good offense. If it pays off, Ukraine could pull off something similar to what Israel did for its 6 day war.
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Postby Greater Cosmicium » Sun Apr 11, 2021 12:32 pm

Saiwania wrote:Ukraine and Russia are already at war on a de facto basis, so there is no downside for Ukraine in my mind to counterattack Russia in a big way. The new frontline should have a Ukrainian massing of troops and materiel of equivalent strength in response to what Russia is doing on their side or better yet, rain down mortars and artillery and airstrikes on the locations where Russia is massing troops.

The best defense is a good offense. If it pays off, Ukraine could pull off something similar to what Israel did for its 6 day war.


Ukraine is nothing like Israel; Israel had the advantage of superior weaponry and training compared to the Arab states, if Ukraine tried something similar, its underfunded, undertrained and demoralized army would get smashed into bloody pudding by Russian combined forces before they could even shout [insert patriotic war cry here].
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Postby Sharania » Sun Apr 11, 2021 2:07 pm

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Postby Borderlands of Rojava » Sun Apr 11, 2021 2:08 pm

The Ukranians asked WHO for help? Oh no.
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Postby Borderlands of Rojava » Sun Apr 11, 2021 2:09 pm

The Huskar Social Union wrote:
Washington Resistance Army wrote:Tbqh I think Putin is going to back down and it's going to just be saber rattling, not an invasion or anything. Russia looks decent on paper but it got fought to a standstill in eastern Ukraine by a motley collection of militias and poorly armed and organized Ukrainian military units. Russia is probably the best example of a paper tiger nowadays and I would be genuinely shocked if they tried something that aggressive.

I hope its just sabre rattling and nothing amounts to it. And even though im not a huge fan of wars irl, if Russia does try and invade Ukraine i hope the US and Europe back up Ukraine to try and get the Russians to back down.


I honestly hope we don't. The more people who jump into this fight, the worse it gets.

Last time people started randomly taking sides in a war, there was a world war.
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Postby Greater Miami Shores » Sun Apr 11, 2021 2:17 pm

Spanish palarras wrote:wt Putin is great ledear I hope russia wins

I hope it doesn't happen, I like Ukraine, I RP the real life based nation of NS Kiev Ukraine.
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Postby Trollzyn the Infinite » Sun Apr 11, 2021 2:22 pm

Greater Cosmicium wrote:This buildup appears to have started after Zelensky signed decree 117/2021, essentially making it Ukraine's goal to retake Crimea:
https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/russian-tanks-move-toward-ukraine-globe-braces-world-war-3 (yeah yeah, maybe not the most reliable source ever, but you can't be picky sometimes)
https://www.president.gov.ua/documents/1172021-37533 (the original decree, in Ukrainian)


Is he fucking stupid? Ukraine isn't taking Crimea back by force. They don't have the means and they'll never get the foreign support to pull it off. Fucking moron.
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Postby Vistulange » Sun Apr 11, 2021 2:22 pm

Spanish palarras wrote:wt Putin is great ledear I hope russia wins

Evidently, the Kremlin's budget needed to be cut in certain areas.
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Postby Sungoldy-China » Sun Apr 11, 2021 7:53 pm

It’s just the President of Ukraine inciting national sentiment and defrauding American aid.

Even the ass of a comedian knows that Ukraine can't do anything,

Ukraine only needs to play a good role as a buffer zone between Russia and the European Union, and then collect performance fees from the United States externally and inciting nationalism internally to gain support.
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Postby Great Pacific Switzerland » Sun Apr 11, 2021 9:48 pm

Most likely what would happen is more involvement in Donbass. But I doubt a direct war
Last edited by Great Pacific Switzerland on Sun Apr 11, 2021 9:48 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Postby Hakinda Herseyi Duymak istiyorum » Sun Apr 11, 2021 11:01 pm

Against Turkish political Islamists trying to abolish the Montreux Straits Convention, the Turkish nation will give the necessary response to the United States in 2023.Kanal istanbul is an american project. Turks should not be a side in the tension between Russia and Ukraine. Those who smuggle oil and money from the Middle East cannot seek justice for Ukraine. the world is not the backyard of America .Ukraine and Russia as two brother states should never fight. they should look for real enemies in the distance.
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