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Armenia-Azerbaijan Conflict: Violent Ceasefire

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Heloin
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Armenia-Azerbaijan Conflict: Violent Ceasefire

Postby Heloin » Sun Sep 27, 2020 6:44 am

Heavy clashes in Nagorno-Karabakh have sparked Armenia to declare martial law and total mobilisation of the country. Both sides have reported civilian casualties and both sides blame the other. Turkey has vowed it's support for Azerbaijan, Russia and Iran both call for a ceasefire and an end to any fighting.

The Armenian Defence Ministry said an attack on civilian settlements, including the regional capital Stepanakert, began at 08:10 local time (04:10 GMT).

It said it had shot down two helicopters and three drones, and destroyed three tanks.

"Our response will be proportionate, and the military-political leadership of Azerbaijan bears full responsibility for the situation," it said in a statement.

Officials said a woman and child had been killed, and further reports of casualties were being verified.

Armenia's government declared martial law and total military mobilisation, shortly after a similar announcement by the authorities in the separatist region.

"Get ready to defend our sacred homeland," Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan said in a statement. He earlier accused Azerbaijan of "pre-planned aggression".


Meanwhile Azerbaijan blamed Armenia for starting the fighting.

Intensive shelling of several villages had led to civilians being killed or wounded, and severe damage to infrastructure, its defence ministry said.

The country announced a "counter-offensive operation of our troops along the entire front to suppress the combat activity of the armed forces of Armenia and ensure the safety of the civilian population".

It added that one helicopter had been lost but the crew had survived, and said 12 Armenian air defence systems had been destroyed. It denied other losses reported by Armenia.

Later on Sunday, a defence ministry spokesperson said several villages "which were under enemy occupation for many years, have been liberated". The claim was rebuffed by Armenia's defence ministry spokesperson, who said it was "not consistent with the reality."

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-54314341
https://www.npr.org/2020/09/28/91782921 ... -blown-war
https://www.rferl.org/a/un-chief-calls- ... 61933.html


So yeah, there's fighting again in Artsakh, again. Everyone else wants it to stop, Turkey is encouraging the Azeris. So far fairly normal. Martial law and mobilisation? Less normal. We could very well see clashes similar to those back in June, or see a situation more like the Four-Day War back in 2016, or it could be worse.

Update: In some of the heaviest clashes since 2016 both countries have declared martial law and are mobilising. Azerbaijan has declared a state of war in the border region. Things are getting out of hand.

Update II: Second day of battles for probably the heaviest fighting since the start of the ceasefire in 1994. A return to the status-quo is still achievable but the chances of this turning into an all out war between the two countries is becoming an ever present risk. At least 60 dead with hundreds injured including many civilians and it's very likely the number of casualties will increase in the next few days.

Update III: Over a week of heavy fighting with no end yet in sight. Both sides claim to have killed hundreds of enemy combatants dead though at the moment we can only confirm 241 Armenia dead and an unknow number of Azeri. Azerbaijan and Turkey are probably bringing in fighters from Syria while Armenia has been seeing volunteers from the diaspora around the world heading to fight. Azerbaijan claims to have taken several villages though this is also disputed.

Update IV: Armenia and Azerbaijan with Russian mediation have agreed to a ceasefire.
With Russia’s mediation, Armenia and Azerbaijan agreed to a cease-fire in Nagorno-Karabakh starting at noon Saturday following two weeks of heavy fighting that marked the worst outbreak of hostilities in the separatist region in a quarter-century.

The countries’ foreign ministers said in a statement that the truce is intended to exchange prisoners and recover the dead, adding that specific details will be agreed on later.

The announcement followed 10 hours of talks in Moscow sponsored by Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov, who read the statement. It stipulated that the cease-fire should pave the way for talks on settling the conflict.

If the truce holds, it would mark a major diplomatic coup for Russia that has a security pact with Armenia but also cultivated warm ties with Azerbaijan.

https://apnews.com/article/moscow-azerb ... 78479d98bf
Last edited by Heloin on Wed Oct 14, 2020 8:47 am, edited 5 times in total.
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Postby Anatoliyanskiyan Colony 32 » Sun Sep 27, 2020 6:45 am

''aw sh*t, here we go again.''

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Postby Neuer Deutsches Reich » Sun Sep 27, 2020 6:46 am

Turkey is really not helping against this. Leave Armenia and Azerbaijan alone and go destroy turkey
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Postby Albionist Great Britain » Sun Sep 27, 2020 6:48 am

It’s disappointing to see conflict once again engulfing these countries, but may victory be swift and in Armenia’s favour. The Azerbaijani aggressors shall hopefully soon realise their error of judgement.

Saying that, I hope to see Azerbaijan get screwed partially for the reason of Turkey backing it.
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Postby Insaanistan » Sun Sep 27, 2020 6:56 am

Yup. Saw a TRT report where the Armenians were firing at civilians and Turkish reporters. Though it was before Armenia mobilized.
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Postby Nuroblav » Sun Sep 27, 2020 6:59 am

Big facepalm moment right here.
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Postby Unstoppable Empire of Doom » Sun Sep 27, 2020 7:01 am

Armenia is in trouble. They have fewer soldiers, vehicles, and aircraft. So far as I can tell they only have one advantage - 4 modern su30 fighters. If pilots were well trained they can maintain air parody at least.
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Postby Heloin » Sun Sep 27, 2020 7:04 am

Unstoppable Empire of Doom wrote:Armenia is in trouble. They have fewer soldiers, vehicles, and aircraft. So far as I can tell they only have one advantage - 4 modern su30 fighters. If pilots were well trained they can maintain air parody at least.

Armenia has always been the weaker party in this fight. Yet it's held out and won for 32 years. If Turkey tries to directly intervene it's possible that could drag Russia or even Iran, weirdly enough, into the conflict.
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Postby Cekoviu » Sun Sep 27, 2020 7:06 am

wasn't pashinyan supposed to be a good diplomat & moderate, whatever happened to that?
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Postby Neuer Deutsches Reich » Sun Sep 27, 2020 7:08 am

Heloin wrote:
Unstoppable Empire of Doom wrote:Armenia is in trouble. They have fewer soldiers, vehicles, and aircraft. So far as I can tell they only have one advantage - 4 modern su30 fighters. If pilots were well trained they can maintain air parody at least.

Armenia has always been the weaker party in this fight. Yet it's held out and won for 32 years. If Turkey tries to directly intervene it's possible that could drag Russia or even Iran, weirdly enough, into the conflict.

If turkey intervenes, wouldn’t surprise me if Greece and Cyprus and other countries that hate Turkey would help Armenia, or a Kurdish independence war could really hurt
Last edited by Neuer Deutsches Reich on Sun Sep 27, 2020 7:08 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Postby Side 3 » Sun Sep 27, 2020 7:08 am

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Postby The New California Republic » Sun Sep 27, 2020 7:08 am

Unstoppable Empire of Doom wrote:[...] they can maintain air parody at least.

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Postby Albionist Great Britain » Sun Sep 27, 2020 7:10 am

Neuer Deutsches Reich wrote:
Heloin wrote:Armenia has always been the weaker party in this fight. Yet it's held out and won for 32 years. If Turkey tries to directly intervene it's possible that could drag Russia or even Iran, weirdly enough, into the conflict.

If turkey intervenes, wouldn’t surprise me if Greece and Cyprus and other countries that hate Turkey would help Armenia, or a Kurdish independence war could really hurt


I personally wouldn’t see any of those happening, and nations on the side of Europe soiling things with Turkey would be bad for our interests with Turkey. Though we should definitely punish Turkey by sanctioning them for this.
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Postby Heloin » Sun Sep 27, 2020 7:12 am

Cekoviu wrote:wasn't pashinyan supposed to be a good diplomat & moderate, whatever happened to that?

Azerbaijan. Tensions have been rising on that border since the Four-Day War with clashes happening just about every year since then. Armenia's domestic landscape has changed but it's situation along the border hasn't.
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Postby Heloin » Sun Sep 27, 2020 7:14 am

Neuer Deutsches Reich wrote:
Heloin wrote:Armenia has always been the weaker party in this fight. Yet it's held out and won for 32 years. If Turkey tries to directly intervene it's possible that could drag Russia or even Iran, weirdly enough, into the conflict.

If turkey intervenes, wouldn’t surprise me if Greece and Cyprus and other countries that hate Turkey would help Armenia, or a Kurdish independence war could really hurt

All of that is seriously unlikely. Greece and Cyprus have chilly relations with Turkey right now but not war.
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Postby Novus America » Sun Sep 27, 2020 7:19 am

On the bright side Erdogan is usually more bark than bite. He usually backs down whenever facing real opposition.
Given his massive diplomatic defeat in his confrontation with Greece, he probably wants to distract his people. But he does not want a real war.

None of the involved parties want a real war. Although it could get out of hand, more likely we have short term increase in tensions before backing down.
Last edited by Novus America on Sun Sep 27, 2020 7:49 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Postby Neuer Deutsches Reich » Sun Sep 27, 2020 7:19 am

Heloin wrote:
Neuer Deutsches Reich wrote:If turkey intervenes, wouldn’t surprise me if Greece and Cyprus and other countries that hate Turkey would help Armenia, or a Kurdish independence war could really hurt

All of that is seriously unlikely. Greece and Cyprus have chilly relations with Turkey right now but not war.

Not necessarily war with turkey, but they would stand at the side of Armenia. Maybe sanctioning turkey or sending goods to Armenia. Don’t expect money from Greece tho
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Postby Novus America » Sun Sep 27, 2020 7:28 am

Neuer Deutsches Reich wrote:
Heloin wrote:All of that is seriously unlikely. Greece and Cyprus have chilly relations with Turkey right now but not war.

Not necessarily war with turkey, but they would stand at the side of Armenia. Maybe sanctioning turkey or sending goods to Armenia. Don’t expect money from Greece tho


Given Armenia is landlocked, supply to them would not be really viable. Especially not from Cyprus. The only way to do that would be to fly around Turkey, than over Georgia.

But I would think that Greece and Cyprus would diplomatically support Armenia here. Turkey has very few friends left.
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Postby Ethel mermania » Sun Sep 27, 2020 7:31 am

Well if an area is a war zone martial law is to be expected, and probably a good idea

However as an uninformed American... what the hell? When did something become a war? What are they going to war over? How does Russia allow it?
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Postby Great Aletia » Sun Sep 27, 2020 7:33 am

Turkey makes itself look worse by acting aggressively towards Armenia. Armenia has the right to defend itself without Turkey jumping down its neck. Erdogan wishes to enflame the situation as always. That his passions are directed towards a people his ancestors genocided just makes it worse.

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Postby Great Aletia » Sun Sep 27, 2020 7:36 am

Ethel mermania wrote:Well if an area is a war zone martial law is to be expected, and probably a good idea

However as an uninformed American... what the hell? When did something become a war? What are they going to war over? How does Russia allow it?

It's an ethnic conflict from before the Soviet Union that was temporarily paused under communism.

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Postby Neuer Deutsches Reich » Sun Sep 27, 2020 7:36 am

Great Aletia wrote:Turkey makes itself look worse by acting aggressively towards Armenia. Armenia has the right to defend itself without Turkey jumping down its neck. Erdogan wishes to enflame the situation as always. That his passions are directed towards a people his ancestors genocided just makes it worse.

he wants to finish the job, but erdogan won't succeed. We will never forget and forgive the Armenian genocide and all others like the big amount of greeks that were killed.
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Postby Heloin » Sun Sep 27, 2020 7:40 am

Ethel mermania wrote:Well if an area is a war zone martial law is to be expected, and probably a good idea

However as an uninformed American... what the hell? When did something become a war? What are they going to war over? How does Russia allow it?

To answer your questions in order: Yes. 32 years ago. The Republic of Artsakh formerly called Nagorno-Karabakh is part of the geographic region Greater Armenia and is a Armenian majority region in Azerbaijan that was promised to Armenia but then Stalin changed his mind and gave it to Azerbaijan as an Armenian administrated autonomous area. Russia may want peace in the region but neither side is willing to give up the Nagorno-Karabakh.
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Postby Novus America » Sun Sep 27, 2020 7:42 am

Ethel mermania wrote:Well if an area is a war zone martial law is to be expected, and probably a good idea

However as an uninformed American... what the hell? When did something become a war? What are they going to war over? How does Russia allow it?


It is not a full blown war, just some border clashes. Which have been going on a on and off while.

Basically it goes back to the Soviet era. As part of the divide and conquer policies the Soviets placed a predominantly ethnic Armenian area in Azerbaijan, which Armenia occupied by force after the Soviet regime fell.

So it is basically a border dispute. Azerbaijan says Armenia is illegally occupying its territory, and wants it back. Armenia claims the land as ethnic Armenian and unfairly transferred to Azerbaijan by Soviet force, and thus does not want Azerbaijan to have it back.

Russia is in a delicate situation. They support Armenia usually, but do not share a order with it.
And Russia wants good relations with Turkey and Azerbaijan. With Turkey increasingly isolated from the West, Russia wants to draw Turkey into the Russian camp. If Russia comes down hard on Turkey, Turkey might switch back to looking West for help.
Last edited by Novus America on Sun Sep 27, 2020 7:45 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Postby Vistulange » Sun Sep 27, 2020 7:43 am

Heloin wrote:Turkey wants to make everything worse.

No, it doesn't. Turkey is just paying lip service to the "we support Azerbaijan" narrative that's universally popular in Turkey. Watch and see as Turkey does nothing.

Neuer Deutsches Reich wrote:Turkey is really not helping against this. Leave Armenia and Azerbaijan alone and go destroy turkey

Why, exactly?

Albionist Great Britain wrote:It’s disappointing to see conflict once again engulfing these countries, but may victory be swift and in Armenia’s favour. The Azerbaijani aggressors shall hopefully soon realise their error of judgement.

Saying that, I hope to see Azerbaijan get screwed partially for the reason of Turkey backing it.

Wishing that a country gets screwed because another country supports it, hottest take thus far in this thread.

Unstoppable Empire of Doom wrote:Armenia is in trouble. They have fewer soldiers, vehicles, and aircraft. So far as I can tell they only have one advantage - 4 modern su30 fighters. If pilots were well trained they can maintain air parody at least.

Numerically, yes, but I'm not particularly optimistic on part of Azerbaijan because, well, it's a lot more corrupt country than Armenia. You never know when several billion dollars meant for defence procurements could simply have gone missing with some jets, artillery pieces, or what have you simply haven't been bought.

Neuer Deutsches Reich wrote:
Heloin wrote:Armenia has always been the weaker party in this fight. Yet it's held out and won for 32 years. If Turkey tries to directly intervene it's possible that could drag Russia or even Iran, weirdly enough, into the conflict.

If turkey intervenes, wouldn’t surprise me if Greece and Cyprus and other countries that hate Turkey would help Armenia, or a Kurdish independence war could really hurt

I suggest you return to the world of reality where people generally don't give so many fucks. Armenia and Azerbaijan clashing is barely news.

Albionist Great Britain wrote:
Neuer Deutsches Reich wrote:If turkey intervenes, wouldn’t surprise me if Greece and Cyprus and other countries that hate Turkey would help Armenia, or a Kurdish independence war could really hurt


I personally wouldn’t see any of those happening, and nations on the side of Europe soiling things with Turkey would be bad for our interests with Turkey. Though we should definitely punish Turkey by sanctioning them for this.

Again, what does Turkey have anything to do with this at all?

Novus America wrote:On the bright side Erdogan is usually more bark than bite. He usually backs down whoever facing real opposition.
Given his massive diplomatic defeat in his confrontation with Greece, he probably wants to distract his people. But he does not want a real war.

None of the involved parties want a real war. Although it could get out of hand, more likely we have short term increase in tensions before backing down.

Of course you have an opinion on this matter, as well. Hey, at least it's not complete rubbish this time.

Neuer Deutsches Reich wrote:
Heloin wrote:All of that is seriously unlikely. Greece and Cyprus have chilly relations with Turkey right now but not war.

Not necessarily war with turkey, but they would stand at the side of Armenia. Maybe sanctioning turkey or sending goods to Armenia. Don’t expect money from Greece tho

So, pray tell, what does this have to do with Turkey?

Great Aletia wrote:Turkey makes itself look worse by acting aggressively towards Armenia. Armenia has the right to defend itself without Turkey jumping down its neck. Erdogan wishes to enflame the situation as always. That his passions are directed towards a people his ancestors genocided just makes it worse.

What does this have to do with Turkey?

Neuer Deutsches Reich wrote:
Great Aletia wrote:Turkey makes itself look worse by acting aggressively towards Armenia. Armenia has the right to defend itself without Turkey jumping down its neck. Erdogan wishes to enflame the situation as always. That his passions are directed towards a people his ancestors genocided just makes it worse.

he wants to finish the job, but erdogan won't succeed. We will never forget and forgive the Armenian genocide and all others like the big amount of greeks that were killed.

Oh, that's it. The "Armenian Genocide, Erdoğan wants to finish the job" narrative. Right, seeing you have no idea about modern Turkish history, I think we can easily discard whatever you type out right into the rubbish bin, then, without fear of losing anything worthwhile.
Last edited by Vistulange on Sun Sep 27, 2020 7:46 am, edited 2 times in total.
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