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Brookings declares Iran 'winner' of war in Yemen

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Cisairse
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Brookings declares Iran 'winner' of war in Yemen

Postby Cisairse » Tue Jul 07, 2020 10:09 pm

This is an interesting headline which almost slipped under my radar.

Brookings Institute, the legendary Washington think-tank, has declared that the Iran-backed Houthi tribes are the 'winner' of the war in Yemen, which has now entered its fifth year and cost over 100,000 lives.

https://www.brookings.edu/blog/order-fr ... ataclysmic

The five year-old war in Yemen is intensifying. The country is splitting apart as the pandemic ravages the poorest country in the Middle East. The war is a burden on the Saudi economy, dooming hopes of diversification. Iran is the winner in the quagmire.

The Saudis staged air strikes on Sana’a and other cities in the north under the control of the Zaydi Shiite Houthi rebels last week. At least 40 air attacks hit the capital. Another target was Saada, the home of the Houthis’ leadership. The Saudis say they are trying to kill the top Houthi officials.

The attacks follow the firing of missiles and drones at Riyadh and other Saudi cities and towns. The Saudis claim to have shot down the missiles. The Houthis claim they hit the Saudi Ministry of Defense.

The escalation in the fighting marks the failure of months of efforts to arrange a ceasefire, including the Saudi public call for a unilateral ceasefire. The Saudis are well aware that the war costs them a fortune, at a time when global oil demand is sharply down and Saudi revenue is low. Saudi oil is selling for around $40 a barrel, less than half what the kingdom needs to break even. The details of the multiple efforts at arranging a ceasefire are unknown, but certainly the Houthis don’t feel much compulsion to quit while they are winning on the ground. The war rallies many Yemenis against the hated foreign Saudis.

Due to the pandemic, the Saudis closed the annual hajj pilgrimage to Mecca for most foreigners, another major economic setback. The virus is surging in the kingdom, as well in neighboring Bahrain, Qatar, and Oman. The Saudis have surpassed 200,000 cases, with some in the royal family.

Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, the architect of the reckless Saudi war, has announced plans to diversify the economy and build a new city in the northwest of the country. Those plans are stalling due to the weak economy.

In southern Yemen, separatists have taken control of the port city of Aden and the strategic island of Socotra, throwing out the supporters of the Saudi-based government of Abdrabbuh Mansur Hadi. Other parts of the south are in the hands of local militias. Putting Yemen back together increasingly looks impossible.

The war has cost an estimated 100,000 lives. Eighty percent of Yemenis need humanitarian assistance from the outside. Now the coronavirus is wreaking havoc on the malnourished populace. The head of the United Nations International Children’s Fund (UNICEF) in Yemen says “the crisis is of cataclysmic proportions,” and is getting worse as aid funds dry up due to the global economic depression.

The Houthis are in denial about the pandemic, citing absurdly low numbers of infection and deaths. They also tax humanitarian assistance and divert aid to themselves. But they retain exclusive control of virtually all of the north.

Iran has been providing assistance to the Houthis, especially for their missile and drones, since before the war began. The aid is relatively cheap. The Iranians are getting valuable combat experience in the capabilities of their missiles and drones in Yemen. The experience will undoubtedly help Iran’s allies, like Hezbollah, improve their capabilities.

Tehran has bogged down its regional rival Saudi Arabia in an expensive debacle in Yemen, with apparently no way out. The war costs to the Iranians, in contrast, are minimal. The Saudis will be tarred by the humanitarian catastrophe they have helped create for years to come, and the crown prince’s reputation is toxic. Iran has a host of problems — the virus, mysterious explosions, and others — but in Yemen it’s a winner.


Thoughts on this? It seems like Yemen is far from forming a stable government (and even far from being anything other than a warzone), but if Brookings is right this could be a major development with far-reaching implications in geopolitics for quite some time.
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Red Intria
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Postby Red Intria » Tue Jul 07, 2020 10:49 pm

Brookings is late to the party.

When the Houthis hit those Aramco facilities from 800km away in Sept 2019, that was massive. After that, it seemed like checkmate; I can't envision what a Saudi 'win' would look like even. They have the backing of the US and Israel, but couldn't protect one of its (and much of the world economies) most important assets from one of the poorest groups on earth.

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Postby Ansarre » Wed Jul 08, 2020 4:21 am

This has been evident for over a year now, and what a disaster it is. Iran is beginning to form a wall around our allies now, we need to step in quick.
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Postby Loben The 2nd » Wed Jul 08, 2020 5:49 am

Ansarre wrote:This has been evident for over a year now, and what a disaster it is. Iran is beginning to form a wall around our allies now, we need to step in quick.

And do what, start a war that will make Yugoslavia look appetizing?
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Postby VVerkia » Wed Jul 08, 2020 6:11 am

Ansarre wrote:This has been evident for over a year now, and what a disaster it is. Iran is beginning to form a wall around our allies now, we need to step in quick.

psss. there is no allies in that "war games" :<
All are pawns in stupid hands of that who have interest and need to continue "games" like that.
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Postby Thermodolia » Wed Jul 08, 2020 6:17 am

Ansarre wrote:This has been evident for over a year now, and what a disaster it is. Iran is beginning to form a wall around our allies now, we need to step in quick.

Idk KSA really isn’t the best ally and I really don’t care if lose them
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Postby Ethel mermania » Wed Jul 08, 2020 6:33 am

Is the rebellion over?
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Postby Rio Cana » Wed Jul 08, 2020 9:14 am

According to the following EU. article, that nation is a mess. - https://www.ecfr.eu/mena/yemen


So when are they finally going to divided them into North and South like years ago. In reality, that seems the only feasible solution.
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Postby Esotyrica » Wed Jul 08, 2020 9:29 am

we knew this
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Postby Cisairse » Wed Jul 08, 2020 9:31 am

Ethel mermania wrote:Is the rebellion over?


No, but it seems at this point that they have no reasonable vision of success.
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Postby Merni » Wed Jul 08, 2020 9:31 am

Rio Cana wrote:According to the following EU. article, that nation is a mess. - https://www.ecfr.eu/mena/yemen


So when are they finally going to divided them into North and South like years ago. In reality, that seems the only feasible solution.

That would just cause a hell of a lot more violence. Yugoslavia, India, Germany, Korea, Vietnam, USSR, ... it's rarely worked out peacefully.
Last edited by Merni on Wed Jul 08, 2020 9:32 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Postby Esotyrica » Wed Jul 08, 2020 9:32 am

Rio Cana wrote:According to the following EU. article, that nation is a mess. - https://www.ecfr.eu/mena/yemen


So when are they finally going to divided them into North and South like years ago. In reality, that seems the only feasible solution.

this is a bad take
go outside and do the activism you want instead of debating AWFL-type liberalism on NSG

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Postby Ethel mermania » Wed Jul 08, 2020 11:18 am

Cisairse wrote:
Ethel mermania wrote:Is the rebellion over?


No, but it seems at this point that they have no reasonable vision of success.

The opera ain't over till the fat lady sings.
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Postby Kowani » Wed Jul 08, 2020 11:20 am

Merni wrote:
Rio Cana wrote:According to the following EU. article, that nation is a mess. - https://www.ecfr.eu/mena/yemen


So when are they finally going to divided them into North and South like years ago. In reality, that seems the only feasible solution.

That would just cause a hell of a lot more violence. Yugoslavia, India, Germany, Korea, Vietnam, USSR, ... it's rarely worked out peacefully.

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Postby Major-Tom » Wed Jul 08, 2020 12:56 pm

Ansarre wrote:This has been evident for over a year now, and what a disaster it is. Iran is beginning to form a wall around our allies now, we need to step in quick.


Let's not. Yemen is such a god-damned clusterfuck that has already resulted in such an unspeakable loss of life and famine for it's people. I shudder to think about what more military intervention might do after the results of the last few years.

We should focus on aiding the ordinary civilian Yemenis and not forcing ourselves to side with the Saudis in their role in the war (believe me, if you think Iran has been a bad actor here, then Saudi Arabia is no different).
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Postby Qassadia » Wed Jul 08, 2020 1:00 pm

Ansarre wrote:This has been evident for over a year now, and what a disaster it is. Iran is beginning to form a wall around our allies now, we need to step in quick.

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Postby Exogenous Imperium » Thu Jul 09, 2020 2:22 am

Iran is the winner in Yemen just as it has been the winner in nearly all of the conflicts it has fought so far. What is it that Iran is attempting to win is the important question? A new Islamic Empire is the answer. To become for the future Middle East what the old Ottoman Empire was in the past before its collapse.

Why are Iranians winning and their Sunni counterparts losing when the latter has the demographic material advantage, is a more interesting question. My explanation is that the Iranians have a functioning hierarchy and their opponents do not.


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