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Coronavirus Thread IV: Legends, Laments and Lockdowns

For discussion and debate about anything. (Not a roleplay related forum; out-of-character commentary only.)

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Have you or anyone in your vincinity been affected by COVID-19?

I don't know anyone who has been diagnosed with COVID-19
272
45%
I know someone was diagnosed with COVID-19
139
23%
Someone very close to me was diagnosed with COVID-19
35
6%
I know someone who was hospitalized with COVID-19
51
9%
Someone very close to me was hospitalized with COVID-19
25
4%
I was diagnosed with COVID-19
20
3%
I was hospitalized with COVID-19
8
1%
I don't know/unsure/other
49
8%
 
Total votes : 599

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Vetalia
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Postby Vetalia » Tue Jun 30, 2020 4:45 pm

Greed and Death wrote:It has also mutated to become more infectious. On an order of magnitude no less.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/06/12/health/c ... index.html


That makes a lot of sense and consistent with the increasing disconnect seen between numbers of cases and deaths/hospitalizations compared to the experience earlier in 2020. More infectious but increasingly less lethal, not unlike other coronaviruses.
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Postby San Lumen » Tue Jun 30, 2020 4:57 pm

Vetalia wrote:
Greed and Death wrote:It has also mutated to become more infectious. On an order of magnitude no less.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/06/12/health/c ... index.html


That makes a lot of sense and consistent with the increasing disconnect seen between numbers of cases and deaths/hospitalizations compared to the experience earlier in 2020. More infectious but increasingly less lethal, not unlike other coronaviruses.


Isn't the common cold related to Covid?

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Postby Valrifell » Tue Jun 30, 2020 5:05 pm

San Lumen wrote:
Vetalia wrote:
That makes a lot of sense and consistent with the increasing disconnect seen between numbers of cases and deaths/hospitalizations compared to the experience earlier in 2020. More infectious but increasingly less lethal, not unlike other coronaviruses.


Isn't the common cold related to Covid?


There is no "the" common cold virus, it's a disease caused by innumerable viruses.

There is a subfamily of coronaviruses that don't cause any major symptoms and only cause cold-like symptoms, yes.
Last edited by Valrifell on Tue Jun 30, 2020 5:05 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Greed and Death
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Postby Greed and Death » Tue Jun 30, 2020 5:06 pm

Vetalia wrote:
Greed and Death wrote:It has also mutated to become more infectious. On an order of magnitude no less.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/06/12/health/c ... index.html


That makes a lot of sense and consistent with the increasing disconnect seen between numbers of cases and deaths/hospitalizations compared to the experience earlier in 2020. More infectious but increasingly less lethal, not unlike other coronaviruses.


I haven't found an article stating it is becoming less lethal though.

The other issue I see is Air conditioning is a big factor in the spread of Coronavirus. If you haven't noticed the south has had a massive uptick in the summer.

https://news.harvard.edu/gazette/story/ ... the-south/

The other thing to worry about with the A/C. If the virus is spreading by Air conditioning then it is not dependent on people moving around to spread which means there is no evolutionary pressure to become less lethal. In fact if it is spreading in hospital air conditioning systems the evolutionary pressures could become more lethal as the virus could gain access to more hosts by sending infected people to the hospitals.

We saw this before during the Spanish flu epidemic in WWI. The virus spread in field hospitals so doing enough damage to put the host in the hospital meant evolutionary pressures favored the more lethal strain.
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Vetalia
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Postby Vetalia » Tue Jun 30, 2020 5:08 pm

San Lumen wrote:Isn't the common cold related to Covid?


Yes, although it's technically a whole bunch of viruses that cause the common cold of which coronaviruses are one cause. SARS-CoV-2 is part of the same genus as one of those viruses.
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Postby Vetalia » Tue Jun 30, 2020 5:19 pm

Greed and Death wrote:I haven't found an article stating it is becoming less lethal though.


I'm simply looking at the CDC data itself. No uptick whatsoever in ILI and mortality continues to fall precipitously. Assuming the surge in cases is in fact comparable to what was going on in February-March, take a look and compare then and now:

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/weekly/fluactivitysurv.htm

It is so radically different it is profound...it was so bad back when this was spreading out of control back in January-March that the CDC had to come up with a new color scale for the intensity of ILI.

The other issue I see is Air conditioning is a big factor in the spread of Coronavirus. If you haven't noticed the south has had a massive uptick in the summer.

https://news.harvard.edu/gazette/story/ ... the-south/

The other thing to worry about with the A/C. If the virus is spreading by Air conditioning then it is not dependent on people moving around to spread which means there is no evolutionary pressure to become less lethal. In fact if it is spreading in hospital air conditioning systems the evolutionary pressures could become more lethal as the virus could gain access to more hosts by sending infected people to the hospitals.

We saw this before during the Spanish flu epidemic in WWI. The virus spread in field hospitals so doing enough damage to put the host in the hospital meant evolutionary pressures favored the more lethal strain.


That would only be true if hospitals were the only places using air conditioning and if people weren't spreading the virus elsewhere or via other means. While air conditioning no doubt helps to spread the virus, it's not the only factor nor the primary one. We would of course also have to consider the massive selective pressure from the unchecked spread of the virus in parts of the world without widespread air conditioning or other amenities, particularly Africa.
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Postby Greed and Death » Tue Jun 30, 2020 5:29 pm

Vetalia wrote:
Greed and Death wrote:I haven't found an article stating it is becoming less lethal though.


I'm simply looking at the CDC data itself. No uptick whatsoever in ILI and mortality continues to fall precipitously. Assuming the surge in cases is in fact comparable to what was going on in February-March, take a look and compare then and now:

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/weekly/fluactivitysurv.htm

It is so radically different it is profound...it was so bad back when this was spreading out of control back in January-March that the CDC had to come up with a new color scale for the intensity of ILI.

The other issue I see is Air conditioning is a big factor in the spread of Coronavirus. If you haven't noticed the south has had a massive uptick in the summer.

https://news.harvard.edu/gazette/story/ ... the-south/

The other thing to worry about with the A/C. If the virus is spreading by Air conditioning then it is not dependent on people moving around to spread which means there is no evolutionary pressure to become less lethal. In fact if it is spreading in hospital air conditioning systems the evolutionary pressures could become more lethal as the virus could gain access to more hosts by sending infected people to the hospitals.

We saw this before during the Spanish flu epidemic in WWI. The virus spread in field hospitals so doing enough damage to put the host in the hospital meant evolutionary pressures favored the more lethal strain.


That would only be true if hospitals were the only places using air conditioning and if people weren't spreading the virus elsewhere or via other means. While air conditioning no doubt helps to spread the virus, it's not the only factor nor the primary one. We would of course also have to consider the massive selective pressure from the unchecked spread of the virus in parts of the world without widespread air conditioning or other amenities, particularly Africa.


As we shut down again, Hospitals will be the main place for spreading the virus. That and people's home.
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Vetalia
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Postby Vetalia » Tue Jun 30, 2020 5:39 pm

Greed and Death wrote:As we shut down again, Hospitals will be the main place for spreading the virus. That and people's home.


I don't think we are going to shut down again, at least not on the scale seen back in March-April. There will be targeted closures but not the blanket measures because the cost simply does not justify the benefit, nor is it supported by the facts.
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Postby Greed and Death » Tue Jun 30, 2020 5:40 pm

Vetalia wrote:
Greed and Death wrote:As we shut down again, Hospitals will be the main place for spreading the virus. That and people's home.


I don't think we are going to shut down again, at least not on the scale seen back in March-April. There will be targeted closures but not the blanket measures because the cost simply does not justify the benefit, nor is it supported by the facts.


It is likely needed infections and are rising too quickly.

I think the best plan is to send people north in mass. I think New York City could do with 10 million southerners from infected areas.
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Vetalia
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Postby Vetalia » Tue Jun 30, 2020 5:54 pm

Greed and Death wrote:It is likely needed infections and are rising too quickly.

I think the best plan is to send people north in mass. I think New York City could do with 10 million southerners from infected areas.


Infections don't mean anything though, especially when they are increasingly among younger people...unless you're over 65 and close to death's door as is, getting the Chicom Coof isn't going to really be a big deal at all.
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Postby Greed and Death » Tue Jun 30, 2020 6:33 pm

Vetalia wrote:
Greed and Death wrote:It is likely needed infections and are rising too quickly.

I think the best plan is to send people north in mass. I think New York City could do with 10 million southerners from infected areas.


Infections don't mean anything though, especially when they are increasingly among younger people...unless you're over 65 and close to death's door as is, getting the Chicom Coof isn't going to really be a big deal at all.


Unless the AC in hospitals causes the Spanish flu trajectory in which case the wave in October and November are going to be more lethal and kill young people.
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Postby Vetalia » Tue Jun 30, 2020 7:32 pm

Greed and Death wrote:Unless the AC in hospitals causes the Spanish flu trajectory in which case the wave in October and November are going to be more lethal and kill young people.


That would only make sense if AC is only in place in hospitals and people aren't getting it anywhere else or by any other means. I doubt most of these new cases were hanging around hospitals.

And let's be honest, SARS-CoV-2 even at its worst is pretty much harmless to anyone younger than 65. It has absolutely nothing in common with the Spanish flu in any way, shape or form. At worst it'll be another Asian Flu.
Last edited by Vetalia on Tue Jun 30, 2020 7:34 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Postby Nobel Hobos 2 » Tue Jun 30, 2020 7:34 pm

Vetalia wrote:
Greed and Death wrote:Unless the AC in hospitals causes the Spanish flu trajectory in which case the wave in October and November are going to be more lethal and kill young people.


That would only make sense if AC is only in place in hospitals and people aren't getting it anywhere else.

And let's be honest, SARS-CoV-2 even at its worst is pretty much harmless to anyone younger than 65.


Let's be honest, and not spread COVID disinformation shall we?
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Postby Greed and Death » Tue Jun 30, 2020 7:38 pm

Vetalia wrote:
Greed and Death wrote:Unless the AC in hospitals causes the Spanish flu trajectory in which case the wave in October and November are going to be more lethal and kill young people.


That would only make sense if AC is only in place in hospitals and people aren't getting it anywhere else.

And let's be honest, SARS-CoV-2 even at its worst is pretty much harmless to anyone younger than 65.


The word you want is most common not only.

As the virus has increased its ability to infect others by an order of magnitude we will have to shut down places again. It will be Hospitals, Grocery stores, and home that are the only places people are exposed to AC within 2 weeks. The math is clear just like on the 1st thread on this in January I predicted this a as pandemic. The math clearly shows a deadly Spanish flu like 2nd wave hitting and killing young people.

I am happy to check my numbers but the math does not lie.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2ZuBmdAJO1w
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San Lumen
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Postby San Lumen » Tue Jun 30, 2020 7:42 pm

Greed and Death wrote:
Vetalia wrote:
That would only make sense if AC is only in place in hospitals and people aren't getting it anywhere else.

And let's be honest, SARS-CoV-2 even at its worst is pretty much harmless to anyone younger than 65.


The word you want is most common not only.

As the virus has increased its ability to infect others by an order of magnitude we will have to shut down places again. It will be Hospitals, Grocery stores, and home that are the only places people are exposed to AC within 2 weeks. The math is clear just like on the 1st thread on this in January I predicted this a as pandemic. The math clearly shows a deadly Spanish flu like 2nd wave hitting and killing young people.

I am happy to check my numbers but the math does not lie.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2ZuBmdAJO1w


Viruses dont often mutate like that. If older folks are more susceptible to severe illness from it, it will more that likely stay that way. Spanish flu was not the norm and people ought to stop making comparisons to it.
Last edited by San Lumen on Tue Jun 30, 2020 7:42 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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Greed and Death
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Postby Greed and Death » Tue Jun 30, 2020 7:44 pm

San Lumen wrote:
Greed and Death wrote:
The word you want is most common not only.

As the virus has increased its ability to infect others by an order of magnitude we will have to shut down places again. It will be Hospitals, Grocery stores, and home that are the only places people are exposed to AC within 2 weeks. The math is clear just like on the 1st thread on this in January I predicted this a as pandemic. The math clearly shows a deadly Spanish flu like 2nd wave hitting and killing young people.

I am happy to check my numbers but the math does not lie.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2ZuBmdAJO1w


Viruses dont often mutate like that. If older folks are more susceptible to severe illness from it, it will more that likely stay that way. Spanish flu was not the norm and people ought to stop making comparisons to it.


I am not saying it is the norm I am saying the current course of human action plus methods of propagation make the same mutation path mathematically extremely likely.

Something happen once a century would never be the norm. This looks like that once a century.
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San Lumen
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Postby San Lumen » Tue Jun 30, 2020 7:45 pm

Greed and Death wrote:
San Lumen wrote:
Viruses dont often mutate like that. If older folks are more susceptible to severe illness from it, it will more that likely stay that way. Spanish flu was not the norm and people ought to stop making comparisons to it.


I am not saying it is the norm I am saying the current course of human action plus methods of propagation make the same mutation path mathematically extremely likely.

Something happen once a century would never be the norm. This looks like that once a century.

On what grounds? A mutation like that is not common nor has it occurred in any pandemic since nor did it occur before Spanish Flu as far as I know.
Last edited by San Lumen on Tue Jun 30, 2020 7:46 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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Greed and Death
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Postby Greed and Death » Tue Jun 30, 2020 7:50 pm

San Lumen wrote:
Greed and Death wrote:
I am not saying it is the norm I am saying the current course of human action plus methods of propagation make the same mutation path mathematically extremely likely.

Something happen once a century would never be the norm. This looks like that once a century.

On what grounds? A mutation like that is not common nor has it occurred in any pandemic since.


Which makes it about due.
It is also worth noting other pandemics since we didn't have the widespread use of AC nor the response of locking down in this.

You likely also know this. Which is why you are being so hostile about it. You want to reject the miserable and hard truth for a more comforting fiction. the last one of similar magnitude was 1968.

I
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Vetalia
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Postby Vetalia » Tue Jun 30, 2020 8:34 pm

Greed and Death wrote:The word you want is most common not only.

As the virus has increased its ability to infect others by an order of magnitude we will have to shut down places again. It will be Hospitals, Grocery stores, and home that are the only places people are exposed to AC within 2 weeks. The math is clear just like on the 1st thread on this in January I predicted this a as pandemic. The math clearly shows a deadly Spanish flu like 2nd wave hitting and killing young people.

I am happy to check my numbers but the math does not lie.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2ZuBmdAJO1w


Yes, and I was right predicting that this virus was far more widespread infecting millions of people in the United States well before the first lockdowns and have been consistently right this entire time. Fact is, it is simply not affecting young people in any way.
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San Lumen
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Postby San Lumen » Tue Jun 30, 2020 8:41 pm

Vetalia wrote:
Greed and Death wrote:The word you want is most common not only.

As the virus has increased its ability to infect others by an order of magnitude we will have to shut down places again. It will be Hospitals, Grocery stores, and home that are the only places people are exposed to AC within 2 weeks. The math is clear just like on the 1st thread on this in January I predicted this a as pandemic. The math clearly shows a deadly Spanish flu like 2nd wave hitting and killing young people.

I am happy to check my numbers but the math does not lie.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2ZuBmdAJO1w


Yes, and I was right predicting that this virus was far more widespread infecting millions of people in the United States well before the first lockdowns and have been consistently right this entire time. Fact is, it is simply not affecting young people in any way.


Unless you have a pre existing condition. I know someone who got it and has a pre existing condition and his health is completely messed up now.

speaking of it being widespread I am fairly certain I had it late February/early march and dismissed it as a stubborn cold that didn't want to go away.
Last edited by San Lumen on Tue Jun 30, 2020 8:42 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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Postby The Alma Mater » Tue Jun 30, 2020 8:43 pm

Vetalia wrote:
Greed and Death wrote:The word you want is most common not only.

As the virus has increased its ability to infect others by an order of magnitude we will have to shut down places again. It will be Hospitals, Grocery stores, and home that are the only places people are exposed to AC within 2 weeks. The math is clear just like on the 1st thread on this in January I predicted this a as pandemic. The math clearly shows a deadly Spanish flu like 2nd wave hitting and killing young people.

I am happy to check my numbers but the math does not lie.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2ZuBmdAJO1w


Yes, and I was right predicting that this virus was far more widespread infecting millions of people in the United States well before the first lockdowns and have been consistently right this entire time. Fact is, it is simply not affecting young people in any way.


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Postby Stellar Colonies » Tue Jun 30, 2020 9:17 pm

Vetalia wrote:
Greed and Death wrote:The word you want is most common not only.

As the virus has increased its ability to infect others by an order of magnitude we will have to shut down places again. It will be Hospitals, Grocery stores, and home that are the only places people are exposed to AC within 2 weeks. The math is clear just like on the 1st thread on this in January I predicted this a as pandemic. The math clearly shows a deadly Spanish flu like 2nd wave hitting and killing young people.

I am happy to check my numbers but the math does not lie.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2ZuBmdAJO1w


Yes, and I was right predicting that this virus was far more widespread infecting millions of people in the United States well before the first lockdowns and have been consistently right this entire time. Fact is, it is simply not affecting young people in any way.

It impacts younger people far less than older folks, but it is inaccurate to state that "it is simply not affecting young people in any way".
Last edited by Stellar Colonies on Tue Jun 30, 2020 9:17 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Postby New Bremerton » Wed Jul 01, 2020 3:16 am

Malaysia records zero local coronavirus transmissions for the first time in nearly four months.

Covid-19: No new local infections recorded, first since March 2

Published 5:50 pm
Modified 6:02 pm
1

CORONAVIRUS | Today marked the first time since March 2 where the Health Ministry has not recorded any new cases of Covid-19 transmitted within Malaysian borders.

There was only one new case of Covid-19 detected in the 24-hour period ending noon today, which involved a Malaysian returning from abroad.

Currently, there are 144 individuals being treated for Covid-19.

Four of them require intensive care of which two are on ventilators. The individuals on ventilator support are foreigners.

Today also marked the 20th day in which no deaths were attributed to Covid-19.

Health director-general Dr Noor Hisham Abdullah said that the actual rate of Covid-19 infection resembled the model by the National Health Institute devised on May 21.

"The Health Ministry congratulates everyone, especially Malaysians, over this achievement.

"It is the result of cooperation at all levels. People played their respective roles.

"This included adapting to the new normal and adhering to government guidelines," he added.

He said the low rate of infection was a reflection of the self-discipline and social responsibility of Malaysians.

However, he warned that another Covid-19 outbreak could occur in the country if citizens grow complacent.

He urged parents to educate their children about the new normal, especially those who are about to return to school.


Finally! We did it! Our next target: zero local transmissions for 28 consecutive days. I think we might be able to pull it off well before the end of next month.
Last edited by New Bremerton on Wed Jul 01, 2020 3:26 am, edited 3 times in total.
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Postby Nobel Hobos 2 » Wed Jul 01, 2020 3:27 am

New Bremerton wrote:Malaysia records zero local coronavirus transmissions for the first time in nearly three months.

Covid-19: No new local infections recorded, first since March 2

Published 5:50 pm
Modified 6:02 pm
1

CORONAVIRUS | Today marked the first time since March 2 where the Health Ministry has not recorded any new cases of Covid-19 transmitted within Malaysian borders.

There was only one new case of Covid-19 detected in the 24-hour period ending noon today, which involved a Malaysian returning from abroad.

Currently, there are 144 individuals being treated for Covid-19.

Four of them require intensive care of which two are on ventilators. The individuals on ventilator support are foreigners.

Today also marked the 20th day in which no deaths were attributed to Covid-19.

Health director-general Dr Noor Hisham Abdullah said that the actual rate of Covid-19 infection resembled the model by the National Health Institute devised on May 21.

"The Health Ministry congratulates everyone, especially Malaysians, over this achievement.

"It is the result of cooperation at all levels. People played their respective roles.

"This included adapting to the new normal and adhering to government guidelines," he added.

He said the low rate of infection was a reflection of the self-discipline and social responsibility of Malaysians.

However, he warned that another Covid-19 outbreak could occur in the country if citizens grow complacent.

He urged parents to educate their children about the new normal, especially those who are about to return to school.


Finally! We did it! Our next target: zero local transmissions for 28 days in a row. I think we might be able to pull it off well before the end of next month.


That's great! You shouldn't be so confident of 28 more days, but good luck with it.
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New Bremerton
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Postby New Bremerton » Wed Jul 01, 2020 3:55 am

Nobel Hobos 2 wrote:
New Bremerton wrote:Malaysia records zero local coronavirus transmissions for the first time in nearly three months.



Finally! We did it! Our next target: zero local transmissions for 28 days in a row. I think we might be able to pull it off well before the end of next month.


That's great! You shouldn't be so confident of 28 more days, but good luck with it.


Strange. My edit (four months, not three) isn't reflected in your post. Anyway, the Education Minister has announced that students in Standards 5 and 6 as well as Forms 1 through 4 (i.e. grades 5-10) will resume classes on Jul. 15, with students in Standards 1 through 4 (grades 1-4) set to resume classes on Jul. 22.

Social distancing provisions such as staggered classes and the phased return of boarding school students to dorm rooms will apply, obviously. The first batch of boarding school students will occupy the lower bunk for 14 days, then the next batch of students will occupy the lower bunk while the previous batch is moved on to the upper bunk.

Form 5 and 6 (grades 11-13) students returned to school on Jun. 24 to take their exams.

Social distancing is no longer required for passengers on flights, and the frequency and passenger capacity of domestic flights returns to normal starting today. However, we will have to wear N95 masks and install a contact-tracing app to offset any increased risk of infection on-board, and I'll be boarding a flight pretty soon for personal reasons. Upon return to Sarawak, passengers will be screened at random (ugh!).
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