How Low Can the US Go?

[US-SSR]

The influence and prestige of the United States of America, under its current corrupt, venal, lawless, callous, feckless administration, is in free fall around the world. How low will the US fall until it finally begins to recover?

The following is an overview and sketch of just how and where the US is collapsing. It's lightly sauced to be sure; but then again, Google is your friend.

Policy and process

Once-capable foreign policy agencies are being hollowed out from within. Experts are ignored or attacked while the US administration, in the person of whoever the President favors this week, pursues the monomaniacal interests of one man. The National Security Council, the State Department, the Pentagon's analysts, the intelligence community no longer guide the policy process. They have been replaced by the six fireflies bleeping in a jar that pass for the President's mental processes and that determine today's policy. Tomorrow's can, and probably will, be something entirely unrelated.

Western hemisphere

Other than returning US-Cuban relations to their previous, unproductive and unhelpful, state, events in the hemisphere unfold with little US involvement. If the US administration ever had a plan or policy toward Venezuela it is by now moribund. Bolivia's recent crisis caught the US on the back foot, as did Chile's. Threatening noises from the US over Nicaragua's simmering unrest are not nearly enough to change the Ortega regime's bad behavior. And in the face of continuing migration mostly from Central America, fueled by intolerable living conditions, the US has responded with little more than xenophobic fear and stillborn plans for a wall that wouldn't work even if a foot of it had been built.

Europe and Russia

Where the US is not marginalized in what is arguably the most important region of the world in which it formerly acted, it is uninvolved. Moscow has a free hand in its "near abroad," with the US administration reluctant to even condemn its excesses, much less actively oppose them. On important transregional issues such as climate change and human rights, the US no longer leads. Since power abhors a vacuum, other nations will take its place, sooner rather than later. Its most steadfast, reliable and trustworthy allies are not waiting for the US to recover its influence; they are rapidly making and implementing plans for living in a world in which the US no longer counts.

East Asia and the Pacific

Having blown up the multilateral trade agreement designed to counter Chinese influence and replaced it with precisely nothing, the US is seeing more and more nations in this region cozying up to its most dangerous rival, including most recently South Korea. Other than playing Chicken of the Sea it is doing nothing to counter China's island-building scheme, and nations such as the Philippines, Vietnam and Indonesia are taking notice. Japan and the ROK are at loggerheads; the US does nothing, proposes nothing. North Korea policy is nonexistant. There are no working-level contacts as Kim can always cajole Trump into giving him exactly what he wants while he keeps his nukes and missiles.

South Asia

Leaving the quagmire in Afghanistan may well prove more damaging than staying in. Having been caught in a lie over Kashmir, neither the President nor any other US official has any credibility vis-a-vis India or Pakistan.

Middle East

The Turk bent the US administration over to clear the way for its punitive expedition in Syria, neutralizing the US's best ally in the area and threatening to revive ISIS. He is also cozying up to Russia despite NATO. Iran, free of any constraints the discarded nuclear agreement might have carried, pursues its interests with a free hand; another consequence of turning Iraq from its rival in the region to a hot mess at considerable cost in lives, treasure and sacred honor. The abortive "peace process" zeroed out US credibility with the supporters of Palestine and now its main beneficiary has been indicted for corruption so rank it only pales in comparison with that of the White House. Trump and his son-in-law have thrown in their lot with Mister Bone Saw, spreading blood, devastation, death, war and horror across the region and winning exactly no friends for the US.

Africa

If the US administration has any attitude toward Africa other than calling it a collection of "shithole countries" it has yet to be detected or described.

[The East Marches II]

I am really quite pleased the State Department and it's so called foreign policy experts are leaving. The hollowing of the State Department brings me much joy. After endless decades of pathetic failure and groveling appeasement, the whole thing is finally being put in the dust bin. I can't ask for a finer Christmas gift really. Thank you OP.

[Vetalia]

In what way exactly has Trump weakened the prestige and influence of the United States? I mean, the fact is we're now a great power rather than a superpower but this is just a reversion to the historical norm. The power vacuum after the collapse of the USSR was a historical anomaly, nothing more. The best days of our country were when we were a great power rather than a superpower, so I think this is a move in the right direction.

[Washington Resistance Army]

I am really quite pleased the State Department and it's so called foreign policy experts are leaving. The hollowing of the State Department brings me much joy. After endless decades of pathetic failure and groveling appeasement, the whole thing is finally being put in the dust bin. I can't ask for a finer Christmas gift really. Thank you OP.

Pretty much this. Now if the same could happen to everything else in government things might look up for a change.

[Cekoviu]

The Amundsen–Scott South Pole Station.

[Antityranicals]

I am really quite pleased the State Department and it's so called foreign policy experts are leaving. The hollowing of the State Department brings me much joy. After endless decades of pathetic failure and groveling appeasement, the whole thing is finally being put in the dust bin. I can't ask for a finer Christmas gift really. Thank you OP.

Pretty much this. Now if the same could happen to everything else in government things might look up for a change.

I look forward to a world where the US doesn't have to spend a trillion dollars on a military in order to stay as the world's policeman. Every step the world takes away from dependence on the US is a step towards a balanced budget.

[Bombadil]

Rumours of America's demise are greatly exaggerated..

Put simply America has a relatively unique nexus of education, innovation and investment that means it can always quickly reinvent itself. Presidents pass..

..what America does need is a good enemy and thus a relatively unified purpose. I suspect it's rapidly getting another.

[Washington Resistance Army]

Rumours of America's demise are greatly exaggerated..

Put simply America has a relatively unique nexus of education, innovation and investment that means it can always quickly reinvent itself. Presidents pass..

..what America does need is a good enemy and thus a relatively unified purpose. I suspect it's rapidly getting another.

We already have one, ourselves. China will never be able to fill that void because of the way our domestic situation has developed.

[Kowani]

Pretty much this. Now if the same could happen to everything else in government things might look up for a change.

I look forward to a world where the US doesn't have to spend a trillion dollars on a military in order to stay as the world's policeman. Every step the world takes away from dependence on the US is a step towards a balanced budget.

Oh, look, more “balanced budget” nonsense.

[Saiwania]

Oh, look, more “balanced budget” nonsense.

Its way smarter for a country to have a budget surplus than to spend more than every dime it has in revenue every year. This is partially why China is superior across the board on so many things. Love or hate them, they utilize their national treasure far more wisely and more efficient. They systematically save and invest in the things which will give them an edge, rather than on silly entitlements and liabilities like nation building that hasn't worked.

The national debt doesn't need to completely be paid down, but debt to GDP should probably be kept under control. Ideally, below 100%.

The US stopped being a sole superpower because Russia and China independently became powerful again over time, and make better choices overall; than the US did. It wasn't inevitable but there probably isn't much that could've kept either from eventually climbing up in status. China after all, can't be beat on economic matters and Putin is a truly competent and magnificent leader who knew what Russia needed and executed on it.

[Torisakia]

Who's to say that the US will ever recover?

[Rojava Free State]

Pretty much this. Now if the same could happen to everything else in government things might look up for a change.

I look forward to a world where the US doesn't have to spend a trillion dollars on a military in order to stay as the world's policeman. Every step the world takes away from dependence on the US is a step towards a balanced budget.

I want a world where no power dominates everyone else. Whatever happened to sovereignty?

[Rojava Free State]

Rumours of America's demise are greatly exaggerated..

Put simply America has a relatively unique nexus of education, innovation and investment that means it can always quickly reinvent itself. Presidents pass..

..what America does need is a good enemy and thus a relatively unified purpose. I suspect it's rapidly getting another.

27th best education system in the world. Not good

[Rojava Free State]

Who's to say that the US will ever recover?

Was about to say this. Entropy is the norm and anyone who thinks America can't fail is kidding themselves

[US-SSR]

In what way exactly has Trump weakened the prestige and influence of the United States? I mean, the fact is we're now a great power rather than a superpower but this is just a reversion to the historical norm. The power vacuum after the collapse of the USSR was a historical anomaly, nothing more. The best days of our country were when we were a great power rather than a superpower, so I think this is a move in the right direction.

1. running down NATO, the US-led alliance that arguably has guaranteed peace in Europe after two destructive world wars. Question for you: what was the only time NATO's collective defense provisions were activiated?

2. his constant dissembling which has led to the word of the US President, formerly the "Leader of the Free World," not being worth a plugged nickel. No nation can trust it or rely on it.

3. countries like North Korea and Turkey can tell the US to go pound sand and what happens? nothing. Other nations pay attention to these things. Think the US can arrest the slide at "great power?" Nuh-uh.

Srsly this has to be the most outlandish defense of this administration I've seen yet, that it has weakened the standing of the nation just enough so that it could reap the dubious benefits of being weaker without having to pay any substantial costs. Do you really think the other nations on this globe are saying "oh look, the US is just weak enough now, let's not do anything more to make it weaker?" Really? Really?

I look forward to a world where the US doesn't have to spend a trillion dollars on a military in order to stay as the world's policeman. Every step the world takes away from dependence on the US is a step towards a balanced budget.

I want a world where no power dominates everyone else. Whatever happened to sovereignty?

Nothing at all, it's alive and well in a world where sovereign nations are in a near-Hobbesian state of nature. The Athenians knew this when they told the Melians in the fifth century BCE that the strong do as they can while the weak suffer as they must. As you say, there's nothing to keep the fate of the Melians from befalling the US, except possibly impeachment and removal or the 2020 election result. Elect a clown, expect a circus.

[Kowani]

Oh, look, more “balanced budget” nonsense.

Its way smarter for a country to have a budget surplus than to spend more than every dime it has in revenue every year. This is partially why China is superior across the board on so many things. Love or hate them, they utilize their national treasure far more wisely and more efficient. They systematically save and invest in the things which will give them an edge, rather than on silly entitlements and liabilities like nation building that hasn't worked.

China has a budget deficit.

The national debt doesn't need to completely be paid down, but debt to GDP should probably be kept under control. Ideally, below 100%.

This ratio is based on absolute nonsense.

[Benuty]

Who's to say that the US will ever recover?

Was about to say this. Entropy is the norm and anyone who thinks America can't fail is kidding themselves

Failure is one thing, collapse is another.

The Soviets were failing, but on their way to reform until diehard Marxist-Leninist militants thought it appropriate to make Gorbechav a hostage, and thus ruined the last bit of confidence of the Soviet Union experiencing reform. Thanks to the coup the more liberal union agreement was never signed, and the union collapsed within a small time frame.

[Benuty]

Rumours of America's demise are greatly exaggerated..

Put simply America has a relatively unique nexus of education, innovation and investment that means it can always quickly reinvent itself. Presidents pass..

..what America does need is a good enemy and thus a relatively unified purpose. I suspect it's rapidly getting another.

27th best education system in the world. Not good

A consequence, and an irrelevant one at that. One has to consider the fact that each state, and territory have a disunified education system where the federal government's involvement is advisory at best. As a result, someone in Hawaii will probably not find the education system in Oklahoma to their liking. I say it's irrelevant in part because there is no single united education system in the United States (irony), and it could be far worse if the Supreme Court never gained any power (i.e educational inequality would be rampantly worse).

[Benuty]

Who's to say that the US will ever recover?

I would like it to do just that, and maybe we can start by gutting down a lot of the foreign aid pork. Honestly, I would rather our infrastructure not look like something out of a 1980s dystopia so it isn't like we have a shortage of tasks to focus on while wasting money on everyone, and everything abroad. If we want to perform foreign aid it should be in the manner Bush is doing it, since his work has helped reduce HIV/AIDS in Africa, and other places to an extent. I would rather avoid funding more schemes such as the one our deporter in Chief Obama did in Libya, and Syria. Not that Trump is innocent either, but the post-war (World War II) political environment in the United States has seen nothing, but cancerous leeches take up funding that citizens could use.

[Kowani]

Who's to say that the US will ever recover?

I would like it to do just that, and maybe we can start by gutting down a lot of the foreign aid pork.

Yes, that 1% of the federal budget is really going to make a difference.

[Benuty]

I would like it to do just that, and maybe we can start by gutting down a lot of the foreign aid pork.

Yes, that 1% of the federal budget is really going to make a difference.

We have established parasitic relationships where countries get aid, but often in the form of the omnipresent department of defense rather than aid that goes to anything useful for their longterm stability. I would rather such an arrangement end since only a few countries have actually broken out of that mold, and that was because we forced them. Case in point West Germany was to remain an agricultural power with military backing, but little industry until we realized an inevitable war with the Soviet Union made such punitive arrangements....not advisable. Regardless, I am in opposition to such types of aid, and would rather it be done through proper channels especially with our convenient "allies" who just happen to have honest to god kleptocrats ruling their states.

[Bombadil]

Rumours of America's demise are greatly exaggerated..

Put simply America has a relatively unique nexus of education, innovation and investment that means it can always quickly reinvent itself. Presidents pass..

..what America does need is a good enemy and thus a relatively unified purpose. I suspect it's rapidly getting another.

27th best education system in the world. Not good

Yet 5 out of the top 10 universities. As I note it's that close nexus between those universities, innovation and investment that is pretty unique, Cambridge University comes close in terms of private technology investment but the US is far and away ahead.

Hence given the richest people in the US, it's remarkable how many actually dropped out of university because they were well on their way already.

[Benuty]

27th best education system in the world. Not good

Yet 5 out of the top 10 universities. As I note it's that close nexus between those universities, innovation and investment that is pretty unique, Cambridge University comes close in terms of private technology investment but the US is far and away ahead.

Hence given the richest people in the US, it's remarkable how many actually dropped out of university because they were well on their way already.

Well not everyone can afford to drop out, but not everyone can afford to go either. While our university system is one of the best it spends a nice chunk of time, and money catching people up through remedial classes because of one issue. We lack a centralized education system, the will to enforce it, and it's potentially decades away from ever being solved. Meanwhile many states use an old model for an economy that no longer exists.

[Benuty]

In regards to my comment regarding West Germany, the United States adopted a limited adaptation of the Morganthau Plan. The plan was to create a vassal state reliant upon the allied powers which were predominantly agriculture in nature. Of course, this called for the near-total destruction of the German industry, and it was well underway. Increasing hostilities with the Soviets and the control of the valued Ruhr valley proved it far better to force a united, and industrialized West Germany onto the political stage rather than a weak one. The kicker being it avoided a potential "genocide" since the plan acknowledged deindustrialization would have undergone...certain levels of force, and a lower quality of life which would render a few million dead potentially by economic circumstances alone.

[Kowani]

Yes, that 1% of the federal budget is really going to make a difference.

We have established parasitic relationships where countries get aid, but often in the form of the omnipresent department of defense rather than aid that goes to anything useful for their longterm stability. I would rather such an arrangement end since only a few countries have actually broken out of that mold, and that was because we forced them. Case in point West Germany was to remain an agricultural power with military backing, but little industry until we realized an inevitable war with the Soviet Union made such punitive arrangements....not advisable. Regardless, I am in opposition to such types of aid, and would rather it be done through proper channels especially with our convenient "allies" who just happen to have honest to god kleptocrats ruling their states.

Ah, never mind. That’s a good position.