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The Future of Antarctica

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Australian rePublic
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The Future of Antarctica

Postby Australian rePublic » Sat Sep 21, 2019 11:52 pm

Let's take a trip to Terra Australis Maximus- The Great Southern Land
What do you see?

Sandy nothingness whilst Men At Work's "Down Under" plays.

No, not that Terra Australis Maximus, the one that was named as such due to the catographical ignorance of the 19th Century, we're talking about the Terra Australis Maximus- the land at the bottom of the world, by which I mean the Anti-Great Bear (yes, that's actually what the continent's name means in Ancient Greek)

Now what do you see? Cold nothing with penguins. If you haven't figured it out already, I'm talking about Antarctica. Oh you did know. How did you... oh you read the title. Damn!

Pathetic attempt at humour aside, yes, Antarctic means Anti-Great Bear. The Ancient Greeks, who theorised the existance of the Arctic and the Antarctic named the former "bear" named after the constilations of the "big bear" and "little bear", which they thought looked like a bear. Antartica was therefore called "anti-bear" as it's in the opposite direction of the bear. For millenia, people theorised the existance of a giant landmass at the Southern Pole, or "Terra Australis". The first European explorers to the Great Southern Land (the kangaroo one) believed that the contient was attached to Antarctica (which is where the name "Australia" comes from).

But this thread isn't about the etymology of contients. I made you read all that because I thought it would be funny to make you read all that crap **runs away before you can throw :D tomatoes**

What this thread is actually about is the future of Antarctica. Let's get into the actual discussion, for real this time. Yes I mean it. "Yea, sure you are" Shut up! Anyways, Did you know that countries claim Antrctica? 9 of them actually- The USA, the UK, Australia, Norway, the USSR (now Russia), Argentina, Chili, New Zealand and France

See:
Image
Now I know what you're thinking- Russia and the USA aren't on that map, and Argntina, Chili and the UK's claims seem to be in the same spot. Yep, which brings us to the crux of the issue- get it? Crux- because that's another name for the Southern Cross constilation located at true south? Get it? **Crickets chirp**

In the 1940's, everyone wanted a slice of Antarctica, so they decided to sign the Antarctic Treaty to make the land disputes someone else's problem- by someone else, they of coarse, mean their decendants. They actual signatories will be watching the impending shitstorm from the afterlife, probably with a giant bowl of popcorn. So basically, the treaty said that 7 countries, Argentina, Chili, the UK, Australia, New Zeland, Norway and France get to make claims, whilst there is an unclaimed part, and the USA and Russia hold, in perpetuity (or until the treaty expires) the right to make a claim whenever they want. These claims mean nothing, as Antarctica belongs to all humanity, and no country can assert their soverignty over their claim. Further, military activity is banned from the continent. Further, many nations have scientific research bases in the claims of others (e.g. China has a scientific base in Australia's claim). And America plonked their base right on the South Pole, where all the claims meet. So great, Antarctica "belongs to everyone, and all the scientists grab hands and sing Koombaya"- ha, no! Well okay, sort of- until 2048, when the treaty expires and there's an impeding shitstorm. Well, what do you mean by sort of? Remember how Argentina and Chili have overlapping claims, well, in the 1970's Argentina found a loophole to the anti-soverignty rule by sending pregnant women to give birth there- I'm serious. Chili one upped them by sending newly weds to concieve and give birth there- leading to a total of 10 known births on the continent. I cannot confirm how true this is, but apparently, one country has already found a loophole to the anti-military section of the treaty, if you guess who, you get a banana- yes, yes, it's America. Further, there have been conflicts in the past. China errected their flag in Australia's claim, and Japan has repeatedly mined in Australia's Antarctic Waters, which remain part of Australia's Exclusive Economic Zone (giving her the 3rd largest EEZ). However, Japan doesn't recognise this. So, finally, after an hour an and half of typing, on my phone, with no breaks, we get to the Crux of the thread, get it, crux, because... "that joke wasn't funny the first time, why would it be funny now?" Shut up! Anyways, the crux of the thread, what do you think is the future of Antarctica?

Given the expiration of the mining ban with the expiration of the treaty- the preciois minerals, tourism potential, strategic military position, difficult terrain for troops to train in, and the abundance of fresh water (albeit melted), I believe there will be a shit storm over Antarctica. There might even be another world war, or atleast another cold war. In my beliefe, given that she already claims 40% of the continent (give or take), despite her small size, Australia will end up with a claim over Antarctica, even if only a little one. If China continues her economic and military growth, she'll definately end up with some land there, the USA, if still the world's still the world's superpowr, will definately end up with a claim. I'm not sure if Russia's still interested but if she is, I can see her ending up with on. As for the the overlapping nations, I reacon there may be a giant war between Argentina and Chili, leaving the UK to regret give her claim to Australia and NZ. Hopefully that doesn't hinder their relationships. I also believe that New Zealand will keep her claim. As the vast majority of Antarctic expoditions start from Christchurch, I definately believe that this will give her a home ground advantage. France's claim might be absorbed by the EU, (if the EU still exists, and France is still a member, that is). I can't say exactly for sure what will happen, but I can envision a shitstorm. If ETOPS will allow for twin trans-Antarctic flights by then, or if tris or quads find a new market flying over Antarctica, (and it's, in my opinion, quite likely), then it would be interesting to see what impact such flights have over the conflicts, and what impact the conflicts have over the flights (If you don't know what I'm talking about with quads, twins, and ETOPS, the click spoiler, don't click spoiler if you're an uneasy flyer)
ETOPS dictates how far a twin engine plane can fly from a diversion airport, in case engine failure leads to one engine operation. Quads- four engine planes are exempt from EETOPS, because if one engine fails, there's still 3 to choose from. Three engine planes are also exempt due to two other engines. The current rating is 120, i.e. 120 minutes max from a diversion airport. Antarctica is the only place outside of ETOPS 120 range- don't yell at me, I told you not to click this if you're an uneasy flyer or a blue-pill


What do you guys think will happen?

"I guessed America, where's my banana?"'- urrghh, here you go, happy? Why did I do this? This is gonna bankrupt me


TL; DR
What do you think will happen when the Antarctic treaty expires? I think it'll be a big shit storm, maybe even another world war. Now why in the hell did I spend an hour and a half, non-stop typing this whole thing on my phone, if noone was gonna read it? **Goes and questions all my life choices**
Last edited by Australian rePublic on Sat Sep 21, 2019 11:53 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Catsfern
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Postby Catsfern » Sat Sep 21, 2019 11:59 pm

there's a really good video about this by CGP Grey
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DbKNlFcg02c
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Australian rePublic
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Postby Australian rePublic » Sun Sep 22, 2019 12:04 am

Catsfern wrote:there's a really good video about this by CGP Grey
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DbKNlFcg02c

Yep, seen it. CPG Grey doesn't address the future
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Catsfern
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Postby Catsfern » Sun Sep 22, 2019 12:06 am

Australian rePublic wrote:
Catsfern wrote:there's a really good video about this by CGP Grey
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DbKNlFcg02c

Yep, seen it. CPG Grey doesn't address the future


still a good set up for context. especial the 1 free claim america and Russia have, the possible oil amount there, and if claims do start mattering what does that mean for china's bases.
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Arkeyana
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Postby Arkeyana » Sun Sep 22, 2019 12:12 am

"Strategic military position"
What's strategic about Antarctica's position?
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Bloodshade
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Postby Bloodshade » Sun Sep 22, 2019 12:19 am

While there will definitely be issues arising around the time the treaty is going to expire, I doubt a war will erupt over the Antarctica. No one's going to blow the other up. You'll simply have corporations waiting to get their hands on it but I'm not completely sure, we'll just have to see how the world shapes up by 2048.

There could be a few skirmishes here and there. I doubt the South American nations can keep their claims. They'll probably make way for bigger fish (USA, India, China) or resort to leaving Antarctica alone.

I personally think we should just renew the treaty. We'll expend more lives and resources if we fight over it anyways as well as ruin the world even further if we damage Antarctica.

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Australian rePublic
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Postby Australian rePublic » Sun Sep 22, 2019 12:20 am

Arkeyana wrote:"Strategic military position"
What's strategic about Antarctica's position?

Controls the whole clipper route, located close to Australiasia, Africa and South America, controls the Drake Passage (along with Argentina), faster transport of planes between Australia/NZ and South America- I don't know, but many countries want their militaries, so there must be something good about it
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Australian rePublic
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Postby Australian rePublic » Sun Sep 22, 2019 12:35 am

Catsfern wrote:
Australian rePublic wrote:Yep, seen it. CPG Grey doesn't address the future


still a good set up for context. especial the 1 free claim america and Russia have, the possible oil amount there, and if claims do start mattering what does that mean for china's bases.

I've already addressed all this in the OP. But here's a recuperation of what I said;
Given that Australia already claims 40% of Antarctica, I reacon she'll hold on to something, but maybe not the whole thing, given that Christchurch is the departure/arrival point for most expoditions to/from Antarctica, I reacon this will give NZ a home ground advantage. I'm not sure what will happen betwen Argentina and Chili, probably a big war. China will defiantely grab something if she remains the military powerhouse she is, the USA will definately claim something, if she remains the powerhouse she is now, and Russia, if still interested, will get a claim
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DACOROMANIA
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Postby DACOROMANIA » Sun Sep 22, 2019 5:46 am

Oh, this is not a Role-Play. It's about Antarctica.

I support the renewal of the Treaty while the actual civilized world is still so undecided to solve their conflicts in proper manners others than militaristic.

Did you know that Romania had a scientific base in Antarctica since the 19th century? But those red troops wanted it all. Yeah, the Soviet rule. Wait, why do you think that Russia will abandon its claims? It never does as any other giant power-state.
But USA will be there forever.

This is at a strategic location but also the atmosphere is thin there. Also very cold.

A nuclear war over Antarctica could either irradiate the waters either to transform Earth into a Venus type planet or a reverse type like Mars. Major tectonic plates interconnect there.
As a comparative example, if a nuclear war breaks in Europe then its tectonic plates will be so affected that most parts of it could fall beneath the sea level.
A world war could make use of mass-destruction weapons. Their power in common is comparable to giant meteorites.
Last edited by DACOROMANIA on Sun Sep 22, 2019 5:47 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Nanna-Suen
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Postby Nanna-Suen » Sun Sep 22, 2019 5:53 am

Treaty or no treaty, it'll surely be interesting to witness how events will play out when (or if) the ice eventually melts and reveals large quantities of untapped natural resources fit for exploitation by the struggling western world among others.
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UniversalCommons
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Postby UniversalCommons » Sun Sep 22, 2019 6:47 am

In the greater name of the UniversalCommons I claim the unclaimed territory and declare it a relocation zone for polar bears.

I imagine someone will want it to practice space exploration or long term isolation experiments. I also imagine there will be some attempted land grabs where corporations set down mining operations on the borders attempting to get additional land or resources for their own country.
Last edited by UniversalCommons on Sun Sep 22, 2019 6:49 am, edited 1 time in total.

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Postby Union of Sovereign States and Republics » Sun Sep 22, 2019 6:50 am

UniversalCommons wrote:In the greater name of the UniversalCommons I claim the unclaimed territory and declare it a relocation zone for polar bears.

I imagine someone will want it to practice space exploration or long term isolation experiments. I also imagine there will be some attempted land grabs where corporations set down mining operations on the borders attempting to get additional land or resources for their own country.

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LiberNovusAmericae
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Postby LiberNovusAmericae » Sun Sep 22, 2019 6:51 am

The U.S. should annex Antarctica, and give everyone else the bird.
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Postby Hammer Britannia » Sun Sep 22, 2019 6:51 am

Presuming that climate change doesn't wipe out civilization/humanity, I can imagine Antarctica would become a sort of paradise in the same way of pre-climate change Cascadia or the Rockies. Shittons of resources too.

As for the claims, I don't think the UN would be particularly thrilled with what remains of civilization raping another continent for its resources (After all, that's what got them in this mess in the first place). But, I can imagine that whomever the most powerful of the claimants are wouldn't care about the UN. The unclaimed areas could become some kind of independent nation of climate refugees or perhaps some kind of American/Russian/Chinese colony in that slice of pie.

As for that independent nation, if I am still alive by the 2080s I am claiming that shit. I am getting in a boat and raising the flag of the Republic of Penguinia
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Postby LiberNovusAmericae » Sun Sep 22, 2019 6:54 am

Cekoviu wrote:I have no opinions other than the following:
a) If anarchists like anarchy so much, they should move to Marie Byrd Land.
b) Referring to countries using female pronouns is really weird and disturbing.

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UniversalCommons
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Postby UniversalCommons » Sun Sep 22, 2019 6:58 am

I think that at least a few of the claimants will get together and try to take as much territory as possible, put things on the borders and completely ignore the United Nations except for when the United Nations votes in their favor. Not everyone will be able to get to the Antarctic easily. Part of this will be about the best transportation system wins.

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Nimzonia
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Postby Nimzonia » Sun Sep 22, 2019 7:00 am

Any existing claims on the antarctic are anachronistic imperialist bullshit that should be summarily dismissed. Is anyone really going to take them seriously in this day and age?

No doubt in 100 years when climate change has wrecked the rest of the planet, Antarctica will be a habitable region, and at that point should be an independent state, not some throwback colony.

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Postby DACOROMANIA » Sun Sep 22, 2019 7:22 am

I have a better idea.
Why I don't make an independent colony-type national union in Antarctica based mainly on scientific and economic purposes where all these claimants shall get equal rights over the continent's lands and resources with the only exception that the core mountains of this will be independently.
I can involve myself as a chief of this project if anyone wants me there to do this.
I don't know what's there. But I think that based on my idea there could be done a very good transportation system and also a megalopolis (city) type of living people. This shall be also acting as a special refuge.
Yeah, this independent core-colony with access to two oceans might be a new nation-state there, but it could work as a Pre-Mars colonization project.
Until the Treaty expires or whenever its renewal it is time I think.
If we can't get an agreement on Antarctica then how will be on Mars? This continent is same frozen as Mars is.
If the ice is melting then the sea levels will grow.
About polar bears I don't know how that might work because there are different types of food and environment and they'll need also a safe place of relocation to not affect the international bases if that is considered.
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Repubblica Fascista Sociale Italiana
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Postby Repubblica Fascista Sociale Italiana » Sun Sep 22, 2019 7:29 am

If climate change makes South Florida go underwater, I may as well just get a bunch of people to hop on a ship and start a settlement on the newly habitable Antarctic coast :p
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Postby Repubblica Fascista Sociale Italiana » Sun Sep 22, 2019 7:31 am

DACOROMANIA wrote:I have a better idea.
Why I don't make an independent colony-type national union in Antarctica based mainly on scientific and economic purposes where all these claimants shall get equal rights over the continent's lands and resources with the only exception that the core mountains of this will be independently.
I can involve myself as a chief of this project if anyone wants me there to do this.
I don't know what's there. But I think that based on my idea there could be done a very good transportation system and also a megalopolis (city) type of living people. This shall be also acting as a special refuge.
Yeah, this independent core-colony with access to two oceans might be a new nation-state there, but it could work as a Pre-Mars colonization project.
Until the Treaty expires or whenever its renewal it is time I think.
If we can't get an agreement on Antarctica then how will be on Mars? This continent is same frozen as Mars is.
If the ice is melting then the sea levels will grow.
About polar bears I don't know how that might work because there are different types of food and environment and they'll need also a safe place of relocation to not affect the international bases if that is considered.

There’s no polar bears in ataractic, I highly doubt everyone’s going to make a random NSer the chief of Antarctic settlement, and a megalopolis on the most uninhabitable continent won’t be happening anytime soon
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Diarcesia
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Postby Diarcesia » Sun Sep 22, 2019 7:35 am

DACOROMANIA wrote:I have a better idea.
Why I don't make an independent colony-type national union in Antarctica based mainly on scientific and economic purposes where all these claimants shall get equal rights over the continent's lands and resources with the only exception that the core mountains of this will be independently.
I can involve myself as a chief of this project if anyone wants me there to do this.
I don't know what's there. But I think that based on my idea there could be done a very good transportation system and also a megalopolis (city) type of living people. This shall be also acting as a special refuge.
Yeah, this independent core-colony with access to two oceans might be a new nation-state there, but it could work as a Pre-Mars colonization project.
Until the Treaty expires or whenever its renewal it is time I think.
If we can't get an agreement on Antarctica then how will be on Mars? This continent is same frozen as Mars is.
If the ice is melting then the sea levels will grow.
About polar bears I don't know how that might work because there are different types of food and environment and they'll need also a safe place of relocation to not affect the international bases if that is considered.


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Postby Heloin » Sun Sep 22, 2019 9:28 am

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Rojava Free State
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Postby Rojava Free State » Sun Sep 22, 2019 9:34 am

Just turn it into a penal colony so we can solve our overcrowded prisons in america, and then in like 100 years we'll have a country known as the Antarctic republic


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anti: fascism, communism, islamism, sexism, pan africanism, La raza, Warren Police Department (and most of the other police departments of metro Detroit except for Auburn Hills. They're aight), gun control, trump, obama, bush, clinton, reagan, carter, chipotle and snotty in crowd teens. Ugh I can't deal with them
Half Lebanese, Half Puerto Rican. All american. Not Kurdish at all.

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Repubblica Fascista Sociale Italiana
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Posts: 232
Founded: Sep 01, 2019
Psychotic Dictatorship

Postby Repubblica Fascista Sociale Italiana » Sun Sep 22, 2019 9:36 am

Rojava Free State wrote:Just turn it into a penal colony so we can solve our overcrowded prisons in america, and then in like 100 years we'll have a country known as the Antarctic republic


Unless global warming wipes it all out

Ironically, global warming is going to make Antarctica, Greenland, Canadian North, and Siberia more habitable than ever before
Race? It is a feeling, not a reality. Ninety-five per cent, at least. Nothing will ever make me believe that biologically pure races can be shown to exist today.… National pride has no need of the delirium of race.
-Benito Mussolini

Pro: Fascism, Socialism, Proletariat, Nationalism, Rhine Markets, Equality, Authoritarianism
Anti: Communism, Corporatism, Laissez-Faire Capitalism, Trump, Globalism, Racism, Democracy,
Fascists have the best music

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