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Card market watch [subscriptions now available]

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The Northern Light
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Card market watch [subscriptions now available]

Postby The Northern Light » Sun Jul 07, 2019 10:02 pm


Card Market Watch


Image

What is this?

To help all those interested in the statistical trends of the card market at large, we decided to start keeping track of a few numbers and make some graphs. These include things such as the number of cards and money being traded each day, the number of nations active trading cards, the number of cards that can be spawned and the odds of getting them, the daily market value of some of the most valuable cards, and many more. We also decided to make all this data and graphs available to everyone.

Below we include a small number of representative graphs (you can click on the images to be taken to interactive versions of the same graphs). For the full range of data and graphs, you can use the following resources, which have data starting from June 3rd, 2019:
  • The card market watch spreadsheet, which includes the raw data for all graphs and a lot more. The spreadsheet updates daily at around 8:00 am ET.
  • The daily trade records, which includes logs of all trades taking place each day. The records update every minute.
  • The deck value records, which includes daily records of the top 100 decks by value, as well as world aggregates. The records update every day at around 7:00am ET.
  • The card market watch dispatch, which includes some additional graphs and related information.

Can I subscribe to have card-related data logged?

Yes you can! We offer three types of subscriptions:

Data is recorded daily at around 1:00 am ET. Currently, the recorded data takes the form of XML files identical to those provided by the cards API, stored separately for each day. In the future, we plan to add some automated graphs, e.g., plotting a card's MV and number of owners over time, etc.

You can subscribe by completing the following form and posting in this thread:
Code: Select all
[b]Subscription type ("deck", "region", or "card"):[/b]
[b]Associated Details: [/b]
[i]Nation (for "deck" subscription):[/i]
[i]Region (for "region" subscription):[/i]
[i]Card ID (for "card" subscription):[/i]
[i]Season (for "card" subscription):[/i]

All subscription requests will first be reviewed by the Guildmaster of The North Pacific Cards Guild before being added to the above lists of subscribers - this is a precaution step to avoid unreasonable subscription requests (e.g., "track all 1,000 nations in region X", etc.).

What if I still have questions?

For any questions or comments, including requests for additional data and graphs, please post in this thread or send a telegram to The Northern Light.

Market activity

The following graphs show how many trades take place each day. They also break down the total trades along various categories, such as rarity of traded card, and season.

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Market volume

The following graphs show how much money changes hands each day. The graphs also break down the total volume per card rarity and per season.

Image

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Legendary market value

The following graph show the average and median market value of all legendary cards available in Season 1 and Season 2.

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Deck values

The following graphs show the total value of all decks in the world, as well as of the top 1, 10, and 100 decks by value.

Image


[Dispatch version]
Last edited by The Northern Light on Fri Jan 03, 2020 8:36 pm, edited 21 times in total.
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Catsfern
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Postby Catsfern » Sun Jul 07, 2019 10:05 pm

can you get the stats for a specific card?
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The Northern Light
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Postby The Northern Light » Sun Jul 07, 2019 10:09 pm

We have the data for individual legendary cards, but not for cards of other rarities.

If there's interest, I can make a list of nations for which we track daily MV, and people can sign up to be added to it.
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Postby Catsfern » Sun Jul 07, 2019 10:14 pm

Yeah I’m quite interested if you would that would be great.
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Postby Queen Yuno » Sun Jul 07, 2019 10:47 pm

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9003
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Postby 9003 » Mon Jul 08, 2019 5:11 am

Great data! Thanks for the data I love reading graphs and what not
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The Northern Light
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Postby The Northern Light » Tue Jul 16, 2019 2:06 am

I've updated both the dispatch and spreadsheet to include statistics and graphs relating to number of cards available and the odds for each rarity category.

For example, the total naturally available cards have decreased from about 68,000 to 56,000 since the resume of cards in December. Additionally, the odds of spawning a legendary card have gone up, from about 0.25% to 0.31%.
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All Wild Things
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Postby All Wild Things » Tue Jul 16, 2019 2:41 pm

Nice addition! I'd been wondering last night what the average junk value of a pack would be. Now that I've got the odds in front of me, I can work it out.

The other thing I was wondering about was the average price paid for the various rarities. I guess it would be a bit distorted by people transferring bank though.

I think what you're doing with this is great. Well done!

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The Northern Light
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Postby The Northern Light » Tue Jul 16, 2019 8:35 pm

Nice addition! I'd been wondering last night what the average junk value of a pack would be. Now that I've got the odds in front of me, I can work it out.

I can add a spreadsheet field and/or graph for average junk value of a pack. As you said, it can be easily computed from the data already in the spreadsheet. But it could be helpful for others who are less... math inclined :P .

The other thing I was wondering about was the average price paid for the various rarities. I guess it would be a bit distorted by people transferring bank though.

It depends what you mean by "price paid". If you mean the amount of money spent per rarity category each day, this is something you can compute from the data on the spreadsheet: There are columns showing the number of cards auctioned and the total amount of bank exchanged in these auctions for each category.

If you mean average market value per category, this is more difficult to compute. Unfortunately, NS does not provide an efficient way to probe thousands of nations for their MV.

For legendaries, we can quickly compute their average MV thanks to the existence of "all legendary" collections. I will shamelessly link to mine, but there are also similar collections by Koem Kab and Mikeswill.

Guard Captain's deck is the closest we have to a full epic collection. So, we can get a reasonable estimate from there.

For other rarity categories, I don't think there's any collection that's anywhere near complete. Given how many more cards these other categories have, I don't think we'll be seeing full collections any time soon.

I think what you're doing with this is great. Well done!

Thanks!
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Postby Toerana » Wed Jul 17, 2019 12:05 pm

The Northern Light wrote:For legendaries, we can quickly compute their average MV thanks to the existence of "all legendary" collections. I will shamelessly link to mine, but there are also similar collections by Koem Kab and Mikeswill.

Guard Captain's deck is the closest we have to a full epic collection. So, we can get a reasonable estimate from there.

For other rarity categories, I don't think there's any collection that's anywhere near complete. Given how many more cards these other categories have, I don't think we'll be seeing full collections any time soon.


I can't wait to see that all common cards collection!

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All Wild Things
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Postby All Wild Things » Wed Jul 17, 2019 1:39 pm

The Northern Light wrote:
If you mean the amount of money spent per rarity category each day, this is something you can compute from the data on the spreadsheet: There are columns showing the number of cards auctioned and the total amount of bank exchanged in these auctions for each category.


That sounds like the calculation I was looking for. I was wanting to answer the question, "What would someone pay for an uncommon card?" (or other rarity).
The results of the calculation don't really answer my question though. The numbers are too unstable, and the average price of both commons & uncommons is actually higher than the average price for rares. Looking at your Daily Trade Records, it becomes apparent that the results are heavily skewed by bank transfers and people artificially boosting the MV of their own card etc. I guess I'd need to look at the trade records, somehow 'clean' the data, and then use it for a calculation. Great that the data is there though!

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The Northern Light
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Postby The Northern Light » Thu Jul 18, 2019 11:33 am

The Northern Light wrote:I can add a spreadsheet field and/or graph for average junk value of a pack. As you said, it can be easily computed from the data already in the spreadsheet. But it could be helpful for others who are less... math inclined :P .

I've updated both the dispatch and spreadsheet to include this, as suggested by All Wild Things.

EDIT: I also fixed a bug that was resulting on the cards odds data not updating. All the related data and graphs should be up to date now.
Last edited by The Northern Light on Thu Jul 18, 2019 11:35 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Postby The Northern Light » Sat Aug 17, 2019 5:34 pm

The Northern Light wrote:I've updated both the dispatch and spreadsheet to include statistics and graphs relating to number of cards available and the odds for each rarity category.

For example, the total naturally available cards have decreased from about 68,000 to 56,000 since the resume of cards in December. Additionally, the odds of spawning a legendary card have gone up, from about 0.25% to 0.31%.

I have updated all the numbers and graphs relating to card odds. The previous numbers were slightly off, as a result of the 2018-03-31 nation dump missing some cards. I've now updated the script producing this data to use Ballotonia's card list, and have corrected the data for all previous dates using the same list.
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Postby Marxist Germany » Sat Aug 17, 2019 6:08 pm

What's that massive spike in mv?!!
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Postby Destructive Government Economic System » Sat Aug 17, 2019 9:17 pm

Marxist Germany wrote:What's that massive spike in mv?!!


6 days ago, there was a massive double auction held for the cards Soops and Mindless contempt, with the OP and Luna Amore purchasing both cards for the approximate range of 2700-3000 bank.

This caused Soops to rise from 779 market value to 1057 and Mindless contempt to go from 389 to 2153, the latter managing to surpass Helaw (which was valued 1472.21 at one point) for the historically largest MV to ever be witnessed in the game.
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Postby Almonaster Nuevo » Wed Nov 20, 2019 5:59 am

The Northern Light wrote:For other rarity categories, I don't think there's any collection that's anywhere near complete. Given how many more cards these other categories have, I don't think we'll be seeing full collections any time soon.


Karen Matheson's Pretty ib Purple is closing in on a full set of ultra rares.
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Postby Refuge Isle » Thu Nov 21, 2019 8:25 pm

Almonaster Nuevo wrote:
The Northern Light wrote:For other rarity categories, I don't think there's any collection that's anywhere near complete. Given how many more cards these other categories have, I don't think we'll be seeing full collections any time soon.


Karen Matheson's Pretty ib Purple is closing in on a full set of ultra rares.

I've updated it to 4,650 out of 5,498. That's just under 85% of the Ultra-Rares. but probably around as good as it's going to get. I'm moving (again -_-) soon, so I won't have as much time to farm, and the cost of collecting the cards that remain is getting prohibitive due to their scarcity. Given how late into the year it already is and hopefully S2 is coming soon, this may be the last time I update the collection.

Assuming S2 does come next month, I'm happy to do another UR collection then, too.

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Postby Catsfern » Fri Nov 22, 2019 7:17 am

Woah, anyone know what happened with that sudden spike in legendary value?
I use NS stats that applies to everyone no exceptions
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Refuge Isle
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Postby Refuge Isle » Fri Nov 22, 2019 4:18 pm

Catsfern wrote:Woah, anyone know what happened with that sudden spike in legendary value?

It is as DGES said:

Destructive Government Economic System wrote:
Marxist Germany wrote:What's that massive spike in mv?!!


6 days ago, there was a massive double auction held for the cards Soops and Mindless contempt, with the OP and Luna Amore purchasing both cards for the approximate range of 2700-3000 bank.

This caused Soops to rise from 779 market value to 1057 and Mindless contempt to go from 389 to 2153, the latter managing to surpass Helaw (which was valued 1472.21 at one point) for the historically largest MV to ever be witnessed in the game.

The amount that a card goes for when the market timer runs out determines the game's estimation of its worth. In August, MC had two high value transactions and Soops had two high value transactions. All four auctions had a sale at or above 2,000.00 bank. Those sales were on such a different plane of reality from what the rest of the legends typically go for, that it through off the averages showing the health all other legends. As a result, r3n added the "median" graph in order to let outliers not ruin the report.

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The Northern Light
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Postby The Northern Light » Sun Dec 08, 2019 11:50 pm

The card market watch has been updated, including the daily trade records, spreadsheet, and dispatch.

All previous data points for market activity now have both aggregate and per season tables and graphs. Gold watch (legendary values) and card odds are provided in two separate versions, one per season.

Please let me know if there is any other information you would like to see tracked or plotted, and it will be added depending on how easy it is to extract the associated information from the website.
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The Northern Light
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Postby The Northern Light » Fri Dec 20, 2019 10:15 pm

There was a small bug due to the fact that high values have began having commas (1,000 instead of 1000). This has been fixed, and all affected data entries have been corrected.
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The Northern Light
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Postby The Northern Light » Sun Dec 29, 2019 12:33 am

We updated the card market watch to include deck value information for the world, as well as the top 100 decks. This includes:

1) Daily records of the world deck value average and top 100 decks (owners and values).
2) A new sheet in the card market watch spreadsheet with aggregate deck value data.
3) A few new graphs visualizing to the above statistics.

The OP and the card market watch dispatch have been updated accordingly.
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Dabarastan
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Postby Dabarastan » Tue Dec 31, 2019 11:49 pm

NL - do you have a thorough understanding of how a card's estimated market value is calculated (and how often)?

On a puppet I have a S2 Legendary Card (Nation of Quebec) that has had four sales ranging from 6.01 to 13.76, yet its market value remains at 1.00. Do you know when its estimated market value should increase?

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9003
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Postby 9003 » Wed Jan 01, 2020 8:48 am

Dabarastan wrote:NL - do you have a thorough understanding of how a card's estimated market value is calculated (and how often)?

On a puppet I have a S2 Legendary Card (Nation of Quebec) that has had four sales ranging from 6.01 to 13.76, yet its market value remains at 1.00. Do you know when its estimated market value should increase?


What we know about MV thus far is it tends to take about 5 sales to set above junk then it becomes a about a rolling average of the last 10 trades (some other factors may apply that we do not know of) that are not the same nation to the same nation. So you can not sell a card to yourself to bump up MV you have to use a puppet.

That being said some cards potentially are still using an older calculation of MV that included gifts in the rolling average thus scewing the MV. These cards are being recaculated as they clear the auction house. Otherwise [v] has said that she forced the top cards to be recaculated. And was going to get around to doing more when she had the time.

All of this information comes from discussions in the cards discord that I will now shamelessly plug (viewtopic.php?f=42&t=458820).
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When U Die
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Postby When U Die » Thu Jan 02, 2020 8:37 am

All these graphics! It hurts.

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