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A hypothetical where North Korea takes over the South

For discussion and debate about anything. (Not a roleplay related forum; out-of-character commentary only.)

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The Chuck
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Postby The Chuck » Wed Apr 17, 2019 8:27 am

Gigaverse wrote:
The Chuck wrote:If North Korea somehow did get control of South Korea, I could foresee an immediate retraction of support from China. The Chinese would know full well that South Korea's allies would be gearing up for a brawl and would most likely want to stay the he'll out of it. Russia could possibly be a different story but North Korea would have major issues. Id bet that Pro-SoLo forces would have be ready to counterattack in a weeks time. The south koreans have mandatory military service so if a couple weapon depots are dispensed to civilians before the complete Take over, an armed guerilla resistance could happen. All in all, if this were to happen, u could feasibly see this as a spark to start WW3.

Would there be active assistance to this questionable regime now, though?


Top of my head,
Iran
Russia
Maybe China,
Cuba?
Every third world tinpot dictator whos disillusions make them think they could profit.

The thing is, South Korea has a rich economy with loads of shipping/etc. So even if there are nations that arent traditional SoKo allies but they benefit from a free south Korea, they might declare support for SoKo.

Though lets be honest... If NoKo took over SoKo, I wouldnt be worried about the US... I'd be worried about the K-Pop fandom... :D
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Greater La Habana Cuba and Miami Shores
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Compulsory Consumerist State

Postby Greater La Habana Cuba and Miami Shores » Wed Apr 17, 2019 8:27 am

A hypothetical where North Korea takes over the South, I hope not, my two ex North Korean co-worker friends and their families would be very sad, a collapse of the South Korean economy, food and goods shortages like in Cuba, Venezuela and North Korea, thousands of Korean boat people across shark infested waters on anything that floats, millions of Korean refugee immigrants all over the world, thousands of executions of South Koreans, no economic and political freedoms of any kind.

overseas Korean care packages and family remittances like in Cuba by Cuban Americans, Cuban Canadians, Cuban Europeans and others.

I used to work with 2 North Koreans, A Vietnamese Lady and a Nicaraguan Lady, during our one hour long break we used to talk in English and share stories about North Korea, Vietnam, Cuba and Sandinista Nicaragua, and we found out we had a lot in common.

The Nicaraguan Lady lost her 3 brothers fighting with the Nicaraguan Contras against the Sandinista, Communist, Socialists supported by Cuba and the American Leftist Liberal Democrats of the time, she was a university student in Nicaragua at the time, the Sandinista Communist, Socialist government sent her to Cuba for two years as a so called volunteer labor on a Cuban government farm, she had to sing and chant anti American songs and chants like No Pasarán - They Shall Not Pass.

The Vietnamese Lady's favorite saying is what I love most about America is, the freedoms in America, and that in America we are all Americans, in my nation of Vietnam, if you are Chinese, Korean or whatever, you are Chinese, Korean or whatever.

In Cuba today and throughout the history of the revolution, their are food shortages of medicines, eggs, chickens, rice, pork, cooking oil, bread, and toilet paper.

Communist, socialists revolutions and governments, as it has been practiced all over the world does not work, the revolution has not worked in Cuba.

We worked 40 hours a week in four days, with overtime on our days off if called and we accepted, no pressures, so we had an hour long break.
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Heloin
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Postby Heloin » Wed Apr 17, 2019 8:29 am

Infected Mushroom wrote:
Heloin wrote:Firstly they wouldn't have that first world standard anymore so I don't know why people are bringing that up.

Secondly that statement doesn't really mix well with reality. Using what you said as fact then China would still have a monarchy, South Korea and Taiwan(ROC) would still dictatorships, and the Vietnamese, Laotians, and Cambodians would still be ruled by the French.


This is northeast Asia

Southeast Asia is very different culturally (ex Thailand rebels all the time)

And half of what I said was in Northeast Asia.
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The New California Republic
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Postby The New California Republic » Wed Apr 17, 2019 8:31 am

Gigaverse wrote:Now come[s] the important question(s): What next?

A few things I can think of off the top of my head:

There would likely be a complete trade embargo by the Western nations against the newly reunified Korea. Products from South Korea would disappear from store shelves, such as Samsung phones and televisions etc, and certain brands of cars also wouldn't be available, like Hyundai and Kia.

There would be a massive number of "boat people" fleeing from Korea, likely towards Japan, because I'm willing to bet that the vast majority of South Koreans wouldn't want to live under a dynastic dictatorship. Japan as a result would suddenly find itself having to house huge numbers of refugees, but it's likely that some of the Koreans wouldn't want to stay there, and would continue either to the United States or to Europe.

There would likely be large labor and reeducation camps set up to deal with dissent.
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Infected Mushroom
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Postby Infected Mushroom » Wed Apr 17, 2019 8:33 am

Heloin wrote:
Infected Mushroom wrote:
This is northeast Asia

Southeast Asia is very different culturally (ex Thailand rebels all the time)

And half of what I said was in Northeast Asia.


South Korea did not achieve democracy through Revolution. Neither did Taiwan. It was gradual and only came to be through the concerted actions of fractioning elites and economic liberalization.

And to this day Japan, Korea and Taiwan... despite nominally democracies, retain a lot of quasi authoritarian features because the population errs towards caution, silence, conformity, and obedience

For instance, there is less then 1/3 the amount of courtroom battles that go on in the west and constitutional challenges an even lower fraction. The people lack the aggressiveness and assertiveness (and individualistic selfishness) on the whole to fight for Western freedoms. That’s neither good nor bad in most situations, it just makes revolution unlikely.
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Gigaverse
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Postby Gigaverse » Wed Apr 17, 2019 8:34 am

Arcanda wrote:2 - I'm also working under these assumptions. In OP's theoretical case, no foreign help seems to be on the way.

Hmm...

Perhaps while I did say "no help is coming" à la South Vietnam, I'm also willing to hear what would happen if that wasn't the case... at least forever. (i.e. that assistance is coming some 2 to 3 years after the fall of the South.)
The New California Republic wrote:Now come[s] the important question(s): What next?

A few things I can think of off the top of my head:

There would likely be a complete trade embargo by the Western nations against the newly reunified Korea. Products from South Korea would disappear from store shelves, such as Samsung phones and televisions etc, and certain brands of cars also wouldn't be available, like Hyundai and Kia.

There would be a massive number of "boat people" fleeing from Korea, likely towards Japan, because I'm willing to bet that the vast majority of South Koreans wouldn't want to live under a dynastic dictatorship. Japan as a result would suddenly find itself having to house huge numbers of refugees, but it's likely that some of the Koreans wouldn't want to stay there, and would continue either to the United States or to Europe.

There would likely be large labor and reeducation camps set up to deal with dissent.[/quote]
So could it ever come to the case where Korea would either collapse or reform?
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Hammer Britannia
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Postby Hammer Britannia » Wed Apr 17, 2019 8:35 am

Infected Mushroom wrote:
Hammer Britannia wrote:The North is a tyrannical regime that the South wouldn't easily surrender to. Resistance would grow easily as the South would try to reform into their previous government.

The North would likely lose due to the sheer industrial and manpower capabilities of the south, even if the Government officially surrenders.

A similar scenario happened when the Soviet Union invaded Eastern Europe and Afghanistan. Early on, the people of these nations rose up in revolution against their oppressors, only to be crushed by Soviet manpower. However, in this scenario, the situation is reversed. A much smaller nation is occupying a much larger one.

It simply wouldn't last.

Also, America. America wouldn't stand by as NK invades its allies. Although they initially stood by in the sidelines, they would intervene


The south wouldn’t rebel, protest or revolt in any significant capacity. It’s against the cultural norms of conformity, obedience and quiet communal living.

Absolute Nonsense.

The Koreans would rebel about as easily as when the average Chinese dynasty loses their mandate of heaven. Koreans, especially in the South, like democracy and freedom, they are not a quiet people who simply want to live another day, if that were the case they wouldn't care which side won the Korean War, nor even wanted Independence from the Japanese.
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Heloin
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Postby Heloin » Wed Apr 17, 2019 8:37 am

Gigaverse wrote:
Infected Mushroom wrote:I agree.

First world living standards plus conformist East Asian mentality.

The people here love to conform and obey (flip side of that though, is that if Korea/Japan/China invades a country and incurs Iraq level losses you would have 1/20th if even that of the noise the media and protestors make to undermine their own nation’s war efforts in cynical America)

While I suppose the cultural factor will be heavy, it'll still remain that the North will be deeply unpopular, unlike the modern governments elsewhere in Northeast Asia - that should also factor into the rebelliousness, I'd think?

Though it probably would have to come to foreign assistance, akin to the fall of the Khmer Rouge.

IM mostly works off the assumption that all people are apathetic and happily comply when living under a dictatorship in spite of being repeatedly told that that has never been true throughout all of history no matter were in the world or what culture you look at.

The problem with that reading of this scenario is going from a third world dictatorship to a third world dictatorship is so vastly different then going from a first world open democratic republic to a third world dictatorship.
Last edited by Heloin on Wed Apr 17, 2019 8:37 am, edited 1 time in total.
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The Chuck
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Postby The Chuck » Wed Apr 17, 2019 8:37 am

Hammer Britannia wrote:
Infected Mushroom wrote:
The south wouldn’t rebel, protest or revolt in any significant capacity. It’s against the cultural norms of conformity, obedience and quiet communal living.

Absolute Nonsense.

The Koreans would rebel about as easily as when the average Chinese dynasty loses their mandate of heaven. Koreans, especially in the South, like democracy and freedom, they are not a quiet people who simply want to live another day, if that were the case they wouldn't care which side won the Korean War, nor even wanted Independence from the Japanese.


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Gigaverse
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Postby Gigaverse » Wed Apr 17, 2019 8:38 am

Infected Mushroom wrote:
Heloin wrote:And half of what I said was in Northeast Asia.


South Korea did not achieve democracy through Revolution. Neither did Taiwan. It was gradual and only came to be through the concerted actions of fractioning elites and economic liberalization.

And to this day Japan, Korea and Taiwan... despite nominally democracies, retain a lot of quasi authoritarian features because the population errs towards caution, silence, conformity, and obedience

For instance, there is less then 1/3 the amount of courtroom battles that go on in the west and constitutional challenges an even lower fraction. The people lack the aggressiveness and assertiveness (and individualistic selfishness) on the whole to fight for Western freedoms. That’s neither good nor bad in most situations, it just makes revolution unlikely.

I do think that while it's ingrained in the culture, it's not so genetically inherent to the point that they wouldn't occasionally rise up to fight for what they think is a just cause. Obedient as they may be, they've been aware of what it was like to live better lives, and with a large enough loophole, they would start a rebellion or two.

Still, that's in a positive scenario.
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Infected Mushroom
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Postby Infected Mushroom » Wed Apr 17, 2019 8:39 am

Hammer Britannia wrote:
Infected Mushroom wrote:
The south wouldn’t rebel, protest or revolt in any significant capacity. It’s against the cultural norms of conformity, obedience and quiet communal living.

Absolute Nonsense.

The Koreans would rebel about as easily as when the average Chinese dynasty loses their mandate of heaven. Koreans, especially in the South, like democracy and freedom, they are not a quiet people who simply want to live another day, if that were the case they wouldn't care which side won the Korean War, nor even wanted Independence from the Japanese.


The Korean War was a war between conventional forces and South Korea relied overwhelmingly on western troops. Contrary to western propaganda, the southern population wasn’t even that keen on democracy nor did they view the war as existential to freedom.

During the entirety of WWII the Koreans did very little to try and overthrow the Japanese
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Infected Mushroom
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Postby Infected Mushroom » Wed Apr 17, 2019 8:42 am

Heloin wrote:
Gigaverse wrote:While I suppose the cultural factor will be heavy, it'll still remain that the North will be deeply unpopular, unlike the modern governments elsewhere in Northeast Asia - that should also factor into the rebelliousness, I'd think?

Though it probably would have to come to foreign assistance, akin to the fall of the Khmer Rouge.

IM mostly works off the assumption that all people are apathetic and happily comply when living under a dictatorship in spite of being repeatedly told that that has never been true throughout all of history no matter were in the world or what culture you look at.

The problem with that reading of this scenario is going from a third world dictatorship to a third world dictatorship is so vastly different then going from a first world open democratic republic to a third world dictatorship.


First world citizens are unlikely to ever have what it takes to sacrifice their livelihoods and safety to fight like the viet Cong for decades; they are trained to obey, conform, and play first world games of civilian office politics

It doesn’t matter how much things plummet, the more it plummets in some parts of the world the more people will cling to the masters

In some parts of the world much has largely devolved to individualistic selfishness while in other places, collectivist indifference prevails
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Heloin
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Postby Heloin » Wed Apr 17, 2019 8:44 am

Infected Mushroom wrote:
Heloin wrote:And half of what I said was in Northeast Asia.


South Korea did not achieve democracy through Revolution. Neither did Taiwan. It was gradual and only came to be through the concerted actions of fractioning elites and economic liberalization.

And to this day Japan, Korea and Taiwan... despite nominally democracies, retain a lot of quasi authoritarian features because the population errs towards caution, silence, conformity, and obedience

For instance, there is less then 1/3 the amount of courtroom battles that go on in the west and constitutional challenges an even lower fraction. The people lack the aggressiveness and assertiveness (and individualistic selfishness) on the whole to fight for Western freedoms. That’s neither good nor bad in most situations, it just makes revolution unlikely.

You're not very well versed on your history are you?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/June_Struggle
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kaohsiung_Incident
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Gigaverse
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Postby Gigaverse » Wed Apr 17, 2019 8:45 am

Infected Mushroom wrote:First world citizens are unlikely to ever have what it takes to sacrifice their livelihoods and safety to fight like the viet Cong for decades; they are trained to obey, conform, and play first world games of civilian office politics

It doesn’t matter how much things plummet, the more it plummets in some parts of the world the more people will cling to the masters

In the west much has largely devolved to individualistic selfishness while in other places, collectivist indifference prevails

So in your case, would it take generations then for that will to be restored? (That's if the regime can't police effectively and/or doesn't reform beforehand.)
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Infected Mushroom
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Postby Infected Mushroom » Wed Apr 17, 2019 8:46 am

Heloin wrote:
Infected Mushroom wrote:
South Korea did not achieve democracy through Revolution. Neither did Taiwan. It was gradual and only came to be through the concerted actions of fractioning elites and economic liberalization.

And to this day Japan, Korea and Taiwan... despite nominally democracies, retain a lot of quasi authoritarian features because the population errs towards caution, silence, conformity, and obedience

For instance, there is less then 1/3 the amount of courtroom battles that go on in the west and constitutional challenges an even lower fraction. The people lack the aggressiveness and assertiveness (and individualistic selfishness) on the whole to fight for Western freedoms. That’s neither good nor bad in most situations, it just makes revolution unlikely.

You're not very well versed on your history are you?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/June_Struggle
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kaohsiung_Incident


It doesn’t matter if you can pick out a few exceptions

You’re just being misleading
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Infected Mushroom
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Postby Infected Mushroom » Wed Apr 17, 2019 8:47 am

Gigaverse wrote:
Infected Mushroom wrote:First world citizens are unlikely to ever have what it takes to sacrifice their livelihoods and safety to fight like the viet Cong for decades; they are trained to obey, conform, and play first world games of civilian office politics

It doesn’t matter how much things plummet, the more it plummets in some parts of the world the more people will cling to the masters

In the west much has largely devolved to individualistic selfishness while in other places, collectivist indifference prevails

So in your case, would it take generations then for that will to be restored? (That's if the regime can't police effectively and/or doesn't reform beforehand.)


It will not be reformed from below but from the top

The top leadership would have to fracture first before the people have different flags of authority to rally to

That would take many many decades and the damage would be done

For sure the first thing a NK regime would do would be to put up regional governors. These people wouldn’t turn until and unless they think NK as a whole is weak enough (not for a very very King time). In the meantime every person for themselves and their family.
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The New California Republic
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Postby The New California Republic » Wed Apr 17, 2019 8:48 am

Gigaverse wrote:So could it ever come to the case where Korea would either collapse or reform?

It's possible. It's likely that the North will have bit off more than it can chew, in terms of trying to manage a populace (in terms of their attitudes etc) and an economy that is totally alien to its own.
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Heloin
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Postby Heloin » Wed Apr 17, 2019 8:49 am

Infected Mushroom wrote:
Heloin wrote:IM mostly works off the assumption that all people are apathetic and happily comply when living under a dictatorship in spite of being repeatedly told that that has never been true throughout all of history no matter were in the world or what culture you look at.

The problem with that reading of this scenario is going from a third world dictatorship to a third world dictatorship is so vastly different then going from a first world open democratic republic to a third world dictatorship.


First world citizens are unlikely to ever have what it takes to sacrifice their livelihoods and safety to fight like the viet Cong for decades; they are trained to obey, conform, and play first world games of civilian office politics

It doesn’t matter how much things plummet, the more it plummets in some parts of the world the more people will cling to the masters

In some parts of the world much has largely devolved to individualistic selfishness while in other places, collectivist indifference prevails

Which is why the United States isn't still fighting in it's longest war.

That's not true. There is no example of that being true. The only reason the North Korea is able to function right now is concentration camps, secret police, and the killings of hundreds if not thousands a year. and even then they have to keep a fairly high for them standard of living for those in charge of doing all this.

I've lived in those parts of the world. People revolt when things get shit and they can't vote for change.
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Gigaverse
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Postby Gigaverse » Wed Apr 17, 2019 8:51 am

The New California Republic wrote:
Gigaverse wrote:So could it ever come to the case where Korea would either collapse or reform?

It's possible. It's likely that the North will have bit off more than it can chew, in terms of trying to manage a populace (in terms of their attitudes etc) and an economy that is totally alien to its own.

Oh yeah I forgot their population literally trust tripled.
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Heloin
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Postby Heloin » Wed Apr 17, 2019 8:51 am

Infected Mushroom wrote:


It doesn’t matter if you can pick out a few exceptions

You’re just being misleading

No you're just making up a nonexistent reality. You keep saying that they won't under any circumstance do anything but when reality proves you wrong you're saying that I'm being misleading.

Also more.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016%E2%8 ... n_protests
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Hammer Britannia
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Postby Hammer Britannia » Wed Apr 17, 2019 9:02 am

Heloin wrote:
Infected Mushroom wrote:
It doesn’t matter if you can pick out a few exceptions

You’re just being misleading

No you're just making up a nonexistent reality. You keep saying that they won't under any circumstance do anything but when reality proves you wrong you're saying that I'm being misleading.

Also more.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016%E2%8 ... n_protests

Also, I love how he ignores the actual Korean in the thread and basically makes baseless assumptions about them being weak and subservient to the Government they are under.

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The Chuck
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Postby The Chuck » Wed Apr 17, 2019 9:05 am

Tbh, this is a hypothetical so I don't mind IM's thoughts. I'm actually sort of enjoying the debate/argument and the differing views going into it.
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Haha, I get a lot of people thinking this nation is based off Chuck Norris. TBH, it isn't! I still laugh though so thanks! :D
"There are over 550 million firearms in worldwide circulation. That's one firearm for every 12 people on the planet. The only question is: How do we arm the other 11?" - Nicolas Cage
"I'm not a bad man but in certain situations I have to ask myself, "What would a bad man do?" -War Dogs

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The Free Joy State
Senior Issues Editor
 
Posts: 6562
Founded: Jan 05, 2014
Iron Fist Consumerists

Postby The Free Joy State » Wed Apr 17, 2019 9:13 am

Gigaverse wrote:What could possibly happen in this mad world?

What could possibly happen.

Those formerly ensconced in the North would have much easier access to the coveted South Korean and US media, horded from before the invasion. This would be good for them, because it would show them the opportunities they had never personally experienced (watching illegal media is already one of the ways North Koreans are defying the regime). Proof of the opportunities available under a free democratic life might spur them on to join a new South Korean resistance or flee, but if not:

I imagine that there would be resistance (because people resist when their rights are stripped away). I also imagine that there would be many fleeing the country. Firms currently manufacturing in South Korea would probably close their factories there and leave the country, weakening the economy.

Meanwhile, I think North Korea's government would struggle to manage a much larger, better-fed population of people not raised from birth to love and fear "Dear Leader", and I imagine that any South Korean intellectuals and government officials who didn't leave quickly would be put into concentration camps.

Globally speaking, I imagine that -- eventually -- the South's allies would realise they'd screwed up (especially when evidence leaked, and I imagine that people would film evidence of their oppression -- as North Koreans currently do; it's in the link above) and apply external pressure, possibly an invasion (probably with the full support of the government in-exile).
Last edited by The Free Joy State on Wed Apr 17, 2019 9:15 am, edited 3 times in total.
"If there's a book that you want to read, but it hasn't been written yet, then you must write it." - Toni Morrison

The Writer's Block Possible Issue Error? or Unusual Issue Effects? (check OPs) Current Issues (Spoilers!)

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The Chuck
Ambassador
 
Posts: 1061
Founded: Apr 18, 2018
Compulsory Consumerist State

Postby The Chuck » Wed Apr 17, 2019 9:15 am

The Free Joy State wrote:
Gigaverse wrote:What could possibly happen in this mad world?

What could possibly happen.

Those formerly ensconced in the North would have much easier access to the coveted South Korean and US media, horded from before the invasion. This would be good for them, because it would show them the opportunities they had never personally experienced (watching illegal media is already one of the ways North Koreans are defying the regime). Proof of the opportunities available under a free democratic life might spur them on to join a new South Korean resistance, but if not:

I imagine that there would be resistance (because people resist when their rights are stripped away). I also imagine that there would be many fleeing the country. Firms currently manufacturing in South Korea would probably close their factories there and leave the country, weakening the economy.

Meanwhile, I think North Korea's government would struggle to manage a much larger, better-fed population of people not raised from birth to love and fear "Dear Leader", and I imagine that any intellectuals and government officials who didn't leave quickly would be put into concentration camps.

Globally speaking, I imagine that -- eventually -- the South's allies would realise they'd screwed up (especially when evidence leaked, and I imagine that people would film evidence of their oppression -- as North Koreans currently do; it's in the link above) and apply external pressure, possibly an invasion (probably with the full support of the government in-exile).


:clap: Yep! Though... I still worry about Russia...
I use NS Stats. - Yes, a majority of my people die at 25... (we lost YET another year!)
"An armed man is a Citizen. An unarmed man is a subject."
Quotes from others.
Finally made my own Discord. Chuck's Arms Bazaar
Haha, I get a lot of people thinking this nation is based off Chuck Norris. TBH, it isn't! I still laugh though so thanks! :D
"There are over 550 million firearms in worldwide circulation. That's one firearm for every 12 people on the planet. The only question is: How do we arm the other 11?" - Nicolas Cage
"I'm not a bad man but in certain situations I have to ask myself, "What would a bad man do?" -War Dogs

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Arcanda
Diplomat
 
Posts: 860
Founded: Sep 24, 2014
New York Times Democracy

Postby Arcanda » Wed Apr 17, 2019 9:25 am

There's also the fact that North and South Koreans are both Koreans, and that reunification is something dear to many of them, albeit in different forms.
I understand that Asians can enter fierce resistance when a foreign enemy invades their territory (Indochina, China during WW2), but intra-ethnic warfare in this case (without the excuse of the Cold War) would be surprising.

Much of the outcome of the invasion also hinges on what the North Koreans choose to do. Repression could be very quick and brutal, something like a genocide maybe, and as I said before, I hardly see how first-worlders would pick up guns and survive in the countryside exposed to harsh weather, diseases, etc. There's a practical as well as cultural arguent as to why I think a large-scale revolt will be impossible (the cultural argument having been laid out earlier). I'm not ruling out small-scale revolts of course, but I think nothing significant will happen.

But what if the North Koreans are actually a bit more clever than that, and seek to keep the South Korean elites by their side by offering them privileges (by installing them as local rulers, or within Party ranks); or to keep South Krea's industry by applying these same privileges to the people in charge of big South Korean conglomerates?

As for K-Pop, I could see the DPRK forcefully keeping the stars that didn't leave (much like they captured/enticed foreign artists to work for the regime in real life) for propaganda purposes.
Last edited by Arcanda on Wed Apr 17, 2019 9:28 am, edited 1 time in total.

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