Which Side Will Win Cold War II?

[US-SSR]

The first major battle of the Second Cold War has been fought and won by Moscow. Russia now knows it can interfere in the electoral process of the United States of America with impunity and will continue and intensify its efforts in the years and decades to come.

So how will this new Cold War turn out? Who will win, who will lose and what will the consequences be? I outline two scenarios below, for the sake of simplicity organized along geographic lines. Feel free to come up with your own ideas; as long as they are supportable with facts and reason.

Please note: this is a Cold War, not a shooting war. If you can’t resist speculating on who would win a military conflict and how, please strongly consider starting your own thread.

1. Best-case scenario

Democrats in the U.S. House pursue multiple investigations into the finances, clandestine contacts and secret arrangements of the first U.S. administration to win office with overt foreign assistance. These investigations lead to strong, robust defenses against any recurrence of Russian skulduggery. The new U.S. administration reinforces these and other activities to counter clandestine Russian influence beginning in 2021. The NRA, exposed as little more than a conduit for Russian campaign dollars, collapses as an organization. Patriotic former Republicans form a new conservative party which quickly supplants the now-discredited rump of the party of Lincoln, explicitly rejecting its white supremacist wing. Single-payer health care, the Green New Deal, moderate wealth taxes and a reasonable, liberal immigration policy are agreed to and implemented. A new era of liberty and prosperity in the U.S. sparks the same throughout the hemisphere as income inequality shrinks to unprecedented levels.

In Europe, the UK, after protracted struggle, finally agrees to remain in the EU. The new era of prosperity contains populist nationalists throughout the continent; these eventually give way to center-left coalitions that effectively deal with their own immigration, economic and other issues. Russia, having no foothold in the region, finds its ambitions contained. Increasing dissatisfaction finally brings down the Putinist regime; the US and EU, having learnt the lessons of the past, step up with generous assistance comparable to the Marshall Plan. Russia finally joins the community of free nations.

China’s influence expands with its own increasing prosperity but is contained within East and South Asia. It in turn finds contentment in being one of the world’s leading powers. The Kim dynasty in North Korea, having overreached in its nuclear ambitions, collapses messily; this fortunately leads to reunification under the leadership of the South. Japan and Australia provide a counterweight to Chinese ambition through peaceful, mostly economic, competition.

Gradually the Middle East and Africa fade as theaters of great-power competition. These regions of the world develop peacefully in line with their own characteristics.

B. Worst-case scenario

Russia intensifies and expands its interference in electoral politics and social media throughout North America and Europe. Freed from any restraint or check, the Trump Administration pursues an increasingly transactional foreign policy, cutting deals (mostly involving Trump Organization real-estate projects) with authoritarian regimes, pulling out of NATO and the OAS soon after its 2020 re-election and taking its direction in world affairs from Moscow. High tariff barriers and the failure of tax cuts for the wealthy to stimulate anything but stock prices soon produce another serious recession. No longer in control of the world’s major reserve currency, the US can no longer print its way out; income inequality skyrockets along with unemployment, drug addiction, race-based violence encouraged by the White House and the collapse of infrastructure, education and public health. Canada is permanently governed by conservatives and Quebec nationalists and closes its borders to immigrants and refugees. Venezuela joins Cuba as Russian client states in the Western Hemisphere; both become bases for supplying and supporting rebels, narcotraffickers and criminal gangs in Brazil, Colombia, Mexico, Central America and the Andean nations. Military juntas reassert repressive regimes in Argentina and Chile.

The UK crashes out of the EU, hastening the damaging effects of the spreading world recession. Populist nationalist forces win elections in Spain, France, Italy, Germany, Austria and the former Yugoslavia and form strong opposition coalitions in Scandinavia and Greece. Hungary, Poland and Turkey leave NATO soon after the US; the Baltic States become little more than Russian vassals. Ukraine rejoins the Russian Federation, ratifying the annexation of the Crimea; Georgia and Azerbaijan come under strong pressure to do likewise.

Unconstrained by the U.S., China rapidly expands its influence throughout a latter-day Greater East Asian Co-Prosperity Sphere, helped by the destabilizing influence of a militant Kim dynasty. Japan, South Korea, Taiwan and Australia look on helplessly as their own economies become more and more dependent on Beijing.

Moscow-backed despots in Syria and Iran spread chaos and unrest throughout the Middle East. In Israel, the intifada becomes endemic.

Africa...remains Africa.

[Bear Stearns]

I think Americans will need to come to terms with a multi-polar world that cares a lot less about American ideals.

[Woodfiredpizzas]

The west will win by realising the only way to stop interference in elections is to not have elections. And since only two options left are dictatorships and no government they opt for no government.

[Senkaku]

Thinking of the modern situation as Cold War 2: Electric Boogaloo is the wrong model. We're not going back to a bipolar world; we're returning to a multipolar model of great power competition.

That said, the way things are going right now, China is going to bury everyone.

[Farnhamia]

Thinking of the modern situation as Cold War 2: Electric Boogaloo is the wrong model. We're not going back to a bipolar world; we're returning to a multipolar model of great power competition.

That said, the way things are going right now, China is going to bury everyone.

A bipolar world would explain a great deal.

[An Alan Smithee Nation]

The military-industrial complexes in the various countries will be the winners. Ordinary people will be the losers.

[Page]

Neither America nor China can completely overcome the other, at least not for the next century barring some kind of devastating cataclysm like pandemic or a (hot) war. But we're not yet in a second Cold War, China is rising but we haven't yet come to a global standoff as America had with the USSR.

[Risottia]

Thinking of the modern situation as Cold War 2: Electric Boogaloo is the wrong model. We're not going back to a bipolar world; we're returning to a multipolar model of great power competition.

That said, the way things are going right now, China is going to bury everyone.

A bipolar world would explain a great deal.

*quietly buys shares in lithium-producing industries*

[Aclion]

Lol. You've lost the plot.

[Novus America]

I think Americans will need to come to terms with a multi-polar world that cares a lot less about American ideals.

I do not really see it multipolar, at least yet.
The only real rising power is China right now.
Russia is a second rate power and effectively subservient to China.

The only other potential is India, but they are so far behind economically and militarily it will take them a long time to catch up.

However a multipolar world means conflict. Meaning a new Cold War or hot wars are simply inevitable.

A bipolar or multipolar world will be more violent.

[-Ocelot-]

Not sure if this is a cold war or if there will be clear winners and losers.

If we have to declare a winner, my guess would be China and to a lesser extent, the EU. They are going to have more influence in the future. China has achieved a lot in a very short period of time. The EU will most likely overcome the current political crisis, although it must address a lot of problems effectively instead of ignoring them.

Russia can't really "win" because it's by design a dysfunctional state with an expiration date. Oligarchs have created a country that is based on oil and gas exports that exists for them and the military. While their propaganda has been successful at making Europeans and Americans fight each other, it's still not going to fix many of the fundamental problems Russians face daily. Moreover, Russia is not a single country but rather a confederation of smaller nations that may or may not be happy to be part of it in the far future.

I have no idea what the US will be in this century but if their current policies persist, they will most likely be the biggest "losers" because the current administration wants their country to be something lesser than the USA of the 20th century. And since they will most likely win in the 2020 elections, they will achieve that goal.

[Erythrean Thebes]

It will still be what theorists call a 'unipolar' international system for a long time, as I don't see any way of Russia or China acquiring power outside of their regional spheres of influence for many more decades bordering on close to a century. Anybody who thinks that we are currently in a new Cold War or a biploar/multipolar international system should seriously consider if the state of our world community today actually resembles this infamously bipolar state of affairs

[Ghost Land]

The first major battle of the Second Cold War has been fought and won by Moscow. Russia now knows it can interfere in the electoral process of the United States of America with impunity and will continue and intensify its efforts in the years and decades to come.

So how will this new Cold War turn out? Who will win, who will lose and what will the consequences be? I outline two scenarios below, for the sake of simplicity organized along geographic lines. Feel free to come up with your own ideas; as long as they are supportable with facts and reason.

Please note: this is a Cold War, not a shooting war. If you can’t resist speculating on who would win a military conflict and how, please strongly consider starting your own thread.

1. Best-case scenario

Democrats in the U.S. House pursue multiple investigations into the finances, clandestine contacts and secret arrangements of the first U.S. administration to win office with overt foreign assistance. These investigations lead to strong, robust defenses against any recurrence of Russian skulduggery. The new U.S. administration reinforces these and other activities to counter clandestine Russian influence beginning in 2021. The NRA, exposed as little more than a conduit for Russian campaign dollars, collapses as an organization. Patriotic former Republicans form a new conservative party which quickly supplants the now-discredited rump of the party of Lincoln, explicitly rejecting its white supremacist wing. Single-payer health care, the Green New Deal, moderate wealth taxes and a reasonable, liberal immigration policy are agreed to and implemented. A new era of liberty and prosperity in the U.S. sparks the same throughout the hemisphere as income inequality shrinks to unprecedented levels.

In Europe, the UK, after protracted struggle, finally agrees to remain in the EU. The new era of prosperity contains populist nationalists throughout the continent; these eventually give way to center-left coalitions that effectively deal with their own immigration, economic and other issues. Russia, having no foothold in the region, finds its ambitions contained. Increasing dissatisfaction finally brings down the Putinist regime; the US and EU, having learnt the lessons of the past, step up with generous assistance comparable to the Marshall Plan. Russia finally joins the community of free nations.

China’s influence expands with its own increasing prosperity but is contained within East and South Asia. It in turn finds contentment in being one of the world’s leading powers. The Kim dynasty in North Korea, having overreached in its nuclear ambitions, collapses messily; this fortunately leads to reunification under the leadership of the South. Japan and Australia provide a counterweight to Chinese ambition through peaceful, mostly economic, competition.

Gradually the Middle East and Africa fade as theaters of great-power competition. These regions of the world develop peacefully in line with their own characteristics.

B. Worst-case scenario

Russia intensifies and expands its interference in electoral politics and social media throughout North America and Europe. Freed from any restraint or check, the Trump Administration pursues an increasingly transactional foreign policy, cutting deals (mostly involving Trump Organization real-estate projects) with authoritarian regimes, pulling out of NATO and the OAS soon after its 2020 re-election and taking its direction in world affairs from Moscow. High tariff barriers and the failure of tax cuts for the wealthy to stimulate anything but stock prices soon produce another serious recession. No longer in control of the world’s major reserve currency, the US can no longer print its way out; income inequality skyrockets along with unemployment, drug addiction, race-based violence encouraged by the White House and the collapse of infrastructure, education and public health. Canada is permanently governed by conservatives and Quebec nationalists and closes its borders to immigrants and refugees. Venezuela joins Cuba as Russian client states in the Western Hemisphere; both become bases for supplying and supporting rebels, narcotraffickers and criminal gangs in Brazil, Colombia, Mexico, Central America and the Andean nations. Military juntas reassert repressive regimes in Argentina and Chile.

The UK crashes out of the EU, hastening the damaging effects of the spreading world recession. Populist nationalist forces win elections in Spain, France, Italy, Germany, Austria and the former Yugoslavia and form strong opposition coalitions in Scandinavia and Greece. Hungary, Poland and Turkey leave NATO soon after the US; the Baltic States become little more than Russian vassals. Ukraine rejoins the Russian Federation, ratifying the annexation of the Crimea; Georgia and Azerbaijan come under strong pressure to do likewise.

Unconstrained by the U.S., China rapidly expands its influence throughout a latter-day Greater East Asian Co-Prosperity Sphere, helped by the destabilizing influence of a militant Kim dynasty. Japan, South Korea, Taiwan and Australia look on helplessly as their own economies become more and more dependent on Beijing.

Moscow-backed despots in Syria and Iran spread chaos and unrest throughout the Middle East. In Israel, the intifada becomes endemic.

Africa...remains Africa.

Dude, what are you even talking about to begin with? The report came out the other day and said definitively that there was no collusion between Russia and the Trump campaign. I'd still like to see actual evidence from the people who think there was collusion as opposed to a bunch of conspiracy theory mumbo-jumbo. And even if there was, why does it even matter? The election was over two years ago now, and Trump was elected fair and square per the rules of our system, so let Trump be Trump and do what he feels is right for America. You aren't going to change a Republican into your ideal vision of a Democrat.

[LiberNovusAmericae]

We should pull out of NATO and become isolationist, but that's just me.

[-Ocelot-]

We should pull out of NATO and become isolationist, but that's just me.

Make America.... small for the first time ever?

[Ethel mermania]

In German or English I know how to count down,
and I am learning Chinese says Werner von Braun

[Athonuna]

Call me optimistic, but there's already some political dissidents in China, and unless they can adapt rapidly, which doesn't seem like, what with Japan and Australia and all the other western powers on their doorstep. Russia is powerful and knows how to use espionage, a critical piece in this war, but at the end of the day, their population just isn't up for a long term string of wars like the Soviets were, and even then, the Soviets could barely even scrounge up enough troops. The west and its ideals are going to be hard to destroy for a long time, and many emerging countries, like India, Brazil, and Indonesia, are mostly friendly with the western powers and in some cases the emerging powers have shaky relations with some of the established powers (China, for example). Of course, the rise of Bolsonaro in Brazil could lead to stronger Brazil-US relations, and if I'm correct Trump and Bolsonaro have already met with each other. International politics is always sketchy, but it could play a huge role in this, and I'm pretty sure I've got at least a basic understanding of international diplomacy.

[Torrocca]

Look, look, look. We all know that you can't Hassel the Hoff... 9000. The only way Cold War II ends is with him being the True Survivor.

[Shanhwa]

The first major battle of the Second Cold War has been fought and won by Moscow. Russia now knows it can interfere in the electoral process of the United States of America with impunity and will continue and intensify its efforts in the years and decades to come.

So how will this new Cold War turn out? Who will win, who will lose and what will the consequences be? I outline two scenarios below, for the sake of simplicity organized along geographic lines. Feel free to come up with your own ideas; as long as they are supportable with facts and reason.

Please note: this is a Cold War, not a shooting war. If you can’t resist speculating on who would win a military conflict and how, please strongly consider starting your own thread.

1. Best-case scenario

Democrats in the U.S. House pursue multiple investigations into the finances, clandestine contacts and secret arrangements of the first U.S. administration to win office with overt foreign assistance. These investigations lead to strong, robust defenses against any recurrence of Russian skulduggery. The new U.S. administration reinforces these and other activities to counter clandestine Russian influence beginning in 2021. The NRA, exposed as little more than a conduit for Russian campaign dollars, collapses as an organization. Patriotic former Republicans form a new conservative party which quickly supplants the now-discredited rump of the party of Lincoln, explicitly rejecting its white supremacist wing. Single-payer health care, the Green New Deal, moderate wealth taxes and a reasonable, liberal immigration policy are agreed to and implemented. A new era of liberty and prosperity in the U.S. sparks the same throughout the hemisphere as income inequality shrinks to unprecedented levels.

In Europe, the UK, after protracted struggle, finally agrees to remain in the EU. The new era of prosperity contains populist nationalists throughout the continent; these eventually give way to center-left coalitions that effectively deal with their own immigration, economic and other issues. Russia, having no foothold in the region, finds its ambitions contained. Increasing dissatisfaction finally brings down the Putinist regime; the US and EU, having learnt the lessons of the past, step up with generous assistance comparable to the Marshall Plan. Russia finally joins the community of free nations.

China’s influence expands with its own increasing prosperity but is contained within East and South Asia. It in turn finds contentment in being one of the world’s leading powers. The Kim dynasty in North Korea, having overreached in its nuclear ambitions, collapses messily; this fortunately leads to reunification under the leadership of the South. Japan and Australia provide a counterweight to Chinese ambition through peaceful, mostly economic, competition.

Gradually the Middle East and Africa fade as theaters of great-power competition. These regions of the world develop peacefully in line with their own characteristics.

B. Worst-case scenario

Russia intensifies and expands its interference in electoral politics and social media throughout North America and Europe. Freed from any restraint or check, the Trump Administration pursues an increasingly transactional foreign policy, cutting deals (mostly involving Trump Organization real-estate projects) with authoritarian regimes, pulling out of NATO and the OAS soon after its 2020 re-election and taking its direction in world affairs from Moscow. High tariff barriers and the failure of tax cuts for the wealthy to stimulate anything but stock prices soon produce another serious recession. No longer in control of the world’s major reserve currency, the US can no longer print its way out; income inequality skyrockets along with unemployment, drug addiction, race-based violence encouraged by the White House and the collapse of infrastructure, education and public health. Canada is permanently governed by conservatives and Quebec nationalists and closes its borders to immigrants and refugees. Venezuela joins Cuba as Russian client states in the Western Hemisphere; both become bases for supplying and supporting rebels, narcotraffickers and criminal gangs in Brazil, Colombia, Mexico, Central America and the Andean nations. Military juntas reassert repressive regimes in Argentina and Chile.

The UK crashes out of the EU, hastening the damaging effects of the spreading world recession. Populist nationalist forces win elections in Spain, France, Italy, Germany, Austria and the former Yugoslavia and form strong opposition coalitions in Scandinavia and Greece. Hungary, Poland and Turkey leave NATO soon after the US; the Baltic States become little more than Russian vassals. Ukraine rejoins the Russian Federation, ratifying the annexation of the Crimea; Georgia and Azerbaijan come under strong pressure to do likewise.

Unconstrained by the U.S., China rapidly expands its influence throughout a latter-day Greater East Asian Co-Prosperity Sphere, helped by the destabilizing influence of a militant Kim dynasty. Japan, South Korea, Taiwan and Australia look on helplessly as their own economies become more and more dependent on Beijing.

Moscow-backed despots in Syria and Iran spread chaos and unrest throughout the Middle East. In Israel, the intifada becomes endemic.

Africa...remains Africa.

“Best case scenario”



There’s so, SO much wrong here that your overt bias shines through. This thread is pointless.

[Aureumterra]

The first major battle of the Second Cold War has been fought and won by Moscow. Russia now knows it can interfere in the electoral process of the United States of America with impunity and will continue and intensify its efforts in the years and decades to come.

So how will this new Cold War turn out? Who will win, who will lose and what will the consequences be? I outline two scenarios below, for the sake of simplicity organized along geographic lines. Feel free to come up with your own ideas; as long as they are supportable with facts and reason.

Please note: this is a Cold War, not a shooting war. If you can’t resist speculating on who would win a military conflict and how, please strongly consider starting your own thread.

1. Best-case scenario

Democrats in the U.S. House pursue multiple investigations into the finances, clandestine contacts and secret arrangements of the first U.S. administration to win office with overt foreign assistance. These investigations lead to strong, robust defenses against any recurrence of Russian skulduggery. The new U.S. administration reinforces these and other activities to counter clandestine Russian influence beginning in 2021. The NRA, exposed as little more than a conduit for Russian campaign dollars, collapses as an organization. Patriotic former Republicans form a new conservative party which quickly supplants the now-discredited rump of the party of Lincoln, explicitly rejecting its white supremacist wing. Single-payer health care, the Green New Deal, moderate wealth taxes and a reasonable, liberal immigration policy are agreed to and implemented. A new era of liberty and prosperity in the U.S. sparks the same throughout the hemisphere as income inequality shrinks to unprecedented levels.

In Europe, the UK, after protracted struggle, finally agrees to remain in the EU. The new era of prosperity contains populist nationalists throughout the continent; these eventually give way to center-left coalitions that effectively deal with their own immigration, economic and other issues. Russia, having no foothold in the region, finds its ambitions contained. Increasing dissatisfaction finally brings down the Putinist regime; the US and EU, having learnt the lessons of the past, step up with generous assistance comparable to the Marshall Plan. Russia finally joins the community of free nations.

China’s influence expands with its own increasing prosperity but is contained within East and South Asia. It in turn finds contentment in being one of the world’s leading powers. The Kim dynasty in North Korea, having overreached in its nuclear ambitions, collapses messily; this fortunately leads to reunification under the leadership of the South. Japan and Australia provide a counterweight to Chinese ambition through peaceful, mostly economic, competition.

Gradually the Middle East and Africa fade as theaters of great-power competition. These regions of the world develop peacefully in line with their own characteristics.

B. Worst-case scenario

Russia intensifies and expands its interference in electoral politics and social media throughout North America and Europe. Freed from any restraint or check, the Trump Administration pursues an increasingly transactional foreign policy, cutting deals (mostly involving Trump Organization real-estate projects) with authoritarian regimes, pulling out of NATO and the OAS soon after its 2020 re-election and taking its direction in world affairs from Moscow. High tariff barriers and the failure of tax cuts for the wealthy to stimulate anything but stock prices soon produce another serious recession. No longer in control of the world’s major reserve currency, the US can no longer print its way out; income inequality skyrockets along with unemployment, drug addiction, race-based violence encouraged by the White House and the collapse of infrastructure, education and public health. Canada is permanently governed by conservatives and Quebec nationalists and closes its borders to immigrants and refugees. Venezuela joins Cuba as Russian client states in the Western Hemisphere; both become bases for supplying and supporting rebels, narcotraffickers and criminal gangs in Brazil, Colombia, Mexico, Central America and the Andean nations. Military juntas reassert repressive regimes in Argentina and Chile.

The UK crashes out of the EU, hastening the damaging effects of the spreading world recession. Populist nationalist forces win elections in Spain, France, Italy, Germany, Austria and the former Yugoslavia and form strong opposition coalitions in Scandinavia and Greece. Hungary, Poland and Turkey leave NATO soon after the US; the Baltic States become little more than Russian vassals. Ukraine rejoins the Russian Federation, ratifying the annexation of the Crimea; Georgia and Azerbaijan come under strong pressure to do likewise.

Unconstrained by the U.S., China rapidly expands its influence throughout a latter-day Greater East Asian Co-Prosperity Sphere, helped by the destabilizing influence of a militant Kim dynasty. Japan, South Korea, Taiwan and Australia look on helplessly as their own economies become more and more dependent on Beijing.

Moscow-backed despots in Syria and Iran spread chaos and unrest throughout the Middle East. In Israel, the intifada becomes endemic.

Africa...remains Africa.

do you actually think US is in a cold war II?

this

[Scomagia]

This isn't cold war 2. The first one never really ended.

Also, I find it funny that everyone is making a big deal about the Russian interference in US elections. Yes, it happened and it's a problem. If you think that this is somehow the first time that Russia has attempted to manipulate politics in the US....well, I've got a bridge to sell you. The USSR had one of the best, if not the best, espionage agencies in the world. As far as I know, the Russian Federation hasn't exactly been lazy on the espionage front, either.

As for who wins? Nobody. Millions of people will find themselves in the midst of bloody wars and civil strife instigated by one side or the other. It's just like the rest of the Cold War.

[The Feylands]

♥

The U. S. realises that big cuts to the military industrial complex are urgently needed to solve the fiscal cliff. Eventually, the Republicans and the Democrats split up into smaller parties, resulting in a bigger political diversity. The regressive left loses its momentum thanks to big cuts to superfluous higher education. Hipsters no longer exist .

The European Union collapses in a peaceful manner. Smart folks in Europe invite China to buy infrastructure and build bases here to preserve the peace vis a vi Russia etc. Belgium, France and the UK are all abolished. Europe gains many new, relatively small states, such as Wales, Brittany, Venice, Catalonia, Basque Country etc. Smaller successors take the place of the EU, such as a Nordic Union and the Intermarium.

Celtic languages become prominent again especially as a spiritual language when Europeans turn to "Paganism" and other Non-Abrahamic religions, with some assistance coming from Beijing to help us in this spiritual journey. Christianity and Islam enters a steady decline across the world. Arrangements are made so that devout Muslims can smoothly migrate to a country that can satisfy their needs, mainly the Gulf countries. Many artificial constructions of the colonial era, such as Iraq and Syria are also peacefully divided into more natural statelets. Only Turkey can not avoid some form of violent end, sadly, as the combined forces of Russia and some European nations retake large swats of Turkish land, to protect the European borders and to avoid being blackmailed by an islamist regime such as Erdogan's, due the threat of further mass migration. A Greek settlement movement to that in Israel gains prominence, though many secular Turks accept the new order and welcome the end of islamist ideology. Parts of Eastern Turkey is returned to Armenia, as is Nagorno Kharabagh. Israel annexes the disputed areas and gets help to arrange a humane and peaceful population exchange so that people who want to live in an arabic islamic state are transferred to one.

The mullahs are overthrown in Iran. Zorastrianism regains prominence. The new leaders of Iran become good friends with the Hindu patriots of the Indian government, and the two successfully deals with the troubles in Afghanistan and Pakistan together. Women finally have rights again.

Taiwan is peacefully reintegrated into China under "One Country, Two Systems". The CCP is having fruitful discussions about possibility of the restoration of the Chinese Empire as outlined by Jian Qing. The South China Sea is confirmed as Chinese territory. Japan makes amends with China and becomes part of a geo-political bloc with China and India, finally breaking the hold of western colonialists in that part of the world.

The total population of the earth continues to decline to more environmentally and ethically sustainable levels. Foreign aid is delivered on conditions of population control assistance. Scientific developments makes the animal industry totally redundant, as meat can now be grown. This is also great news for people with physical disabilities. Gradually, everyone becomes a vegan. Fossil fuels are also made redundant, and nuclear power will be phased out thanks to the invention of a functioning way of doing fusion power.

(gah... discussing big politics like this feels a little gray and emotionless... I'd rather fantasise about cultural developments etc. But that's a little more complex. )

[Rea]

The Red Chinese.

[Page]

(Image)

♥

The U. S. realises that big cuts to the military industrial complex are urgently needed to solve the fiscal cliff. Eventually, the Republicans and the Democrats split up into smaller parties, resulting in a bigger political diversity. The regressive left loses its momentum thanks to big cuts to superfluous higher education. Hipsters no longer exist .

The European Union collapses in a peaceful manner. Smart folks in Europe invite China to buy infrastructure and build bases here to preserve the peace vis a vi Russia etc. Belgium, France and the UK are all abolished. Europe gains many new, relatively small states, such as Wales, Brittany, Venice, Catalonia, Basque Country etc. Smaller successors take the place of the EU, such as a Nordic Union and the Intermarium.

Celtic languages become prominent again especially as a spiritual language when Europeans turn to "Paganism" and other Non-Abrahamic religions, with some assistance coming from Beijing to help us in this spiritual journey. Christianity and Islam enters a steady decline across the world. Arrangements are made so that devout Muslims can smoothly migrate to a country that can satisfy their needs, mainly the Gulf countries. Many artificial constructions of the colonial era, such as Iraq and Syria are also peacefully divided into more natural statelets. Only Turkey can not avoid some form of violent end, sadly, as the combined forces of Russia and some European nations retake large swats of Turkish land, to protect the European borders and to avoid being blackmailed by an islamist regime such as Erdogan's, due the threat of further mass migration. A Greek settlement movement to that in Israel gains prominence, though many secular Turks accept the new order and welcome the end of islamist ideology. Parts of Eastern Turkey is returned to Armenia, as is Nagorno Kharabagh. Israel annexes the disputed areas and gets help to arrange a humane and peaceful population exchange so that people who want to live in an arabic islamic state are transferred to one.

The mullahs are overthrown in Iran. Zorastrianism regains prominence. The new leaders of Iran become good friends with the Hindu patriots of the Indian government, and the two successfully deals with the troubles in Afghanistan and Pakistan together. Women finally have rights again.

Taiwan is peacefully reintegrated into China under "One Country, Two Systems". The CCP is having fruitful discussions about possibility of the restoration of the Chinese Empire as outlined by Jian Qing. The South China Sea is confirmed as Chinese territory. Japan makes amends with China and becomes part of a geo-political bloc with China and India, finally breaking the hold of western colonialists in that part of the world.

The total population of the earth continues to decline to more environmentally and ethically sustainable levels. Foreign aid is delivered on conditions of population control assistance. Scientific developments makes the animal industry totally redundant, as meat can now be grown. This is also great news for people with physical disabilities. Gradually, everyone becomes a vegan. Fossil fuels are also made redundant, and nuclear power will be phased out thanks to the invention of a functioning way of doing fusion power.

(gah... discussing big politics like this feels a little gray and emotionless... I'd rather fantasise about cultural developments etc. But that's a little more complex. )

That makes for a great ASB alternate history but most of that is never going to happen in the real world.

A few refutations:

There is no scenario any time soon that there is a significant reduction of the military budget in America. Even when the Democratic Party had a super-majority in the aftermath of 2008 election, serious military budget cuts weren't on the table. The Democrats are the "I <3 the military industrial complex" party and the Republicans are the "I <3 <3 <3 <3 <3 <3 <3 <3 the military industrial complex" party, so that's dead in the water.

Paganism is never going to be prominent again. A good deal of modern day pagans don't even seriously believe in their gods, rather they are just trying to replace the spiritual hole that was left when they abandoned Christianity. While paganism might grow a bit more popular, it will never pervade the culture of entire nations again as Abrahamic religions do. Zoroastrianism won't fare any better.

Wales and England are stuck together and going to stay that way. A quick google search confirmed my suspicions that less than 10% of Welsh people want to break away from the UK.

Turks would never accept Greek colonization of their lands. Doesn't matter if they are moderate Muslims or even atheists, it's not just about religion - Turkish nationalism is thriving and the bad blood between Turks and Greeks runs deep.

Israel attempting to formerly annex the rest of Palestine would lead to bloodshed beyond anything we've seen so far.

As for your wishful thinking about renewable energy and the environment, I certainly hope you're right but I fear it's going to take way longer to get there than you think and only after the world reaps the whirlwind of climate change - because even if we do everything right tomorrow, we've already guaranteed devastating effects of climate change.

[Bassoe]

Based off the last one, America should be fine as long as we don't bankrupt ourselves engaging in pointless and expensive proxy wars.

...

...shit.