Confess?

[Infected Mushroom]

Please consider the following very simple hypothetical:

You live in a fictional authoritarian country.

You have been accused of a very serious, vile, and stigmatising crime. You are in fact innocent and have been framed but no one believes you.

The evidence used to convict you is very strong because the third party who has framed you did a very good job; you likely would have been convicted under any system and everyone believes (reasonably) that you are guilty. The crime you have been accused of is considered serious, vile, and stigmatising worldwide.

Upon being found guilty, you are told that you can choose to either Admit Guilt ("Confess") or insist upon your innocence.

If you "Confess" you will serve 10 years in prison. However, you will be required to issue a formal and public confession that will be recorded and broadcasted nationwide to the government's satisfaction.

If you do not "Confess," you will serve 20 years in prison.

There is one more consideration:

You know that if you do not Confess, there is a 3 percent chance that after serving your 20 years your innocence will be proven and brought to the public's attention.

If you "Confess," a supernatural mechanism will instantly lower that 3 percent chance of proving your innocence post-sentence to 0 percent. In other words, you will serve your 10 years and be forever stigmatised as a very vile criminal.

In either situation, you will serve some prison time and you will be treated with a great deal of contempt and ostracisation even after you get out; the rest of your life is in all likelihood ruined (quite literally) if you aspire to something like the American Dream.

So do you Confess or do you not Confess? Please justify your decision and discuss your reasoning.

This is a very difficult decision but I don't want to stay in prison longer than I have to so I choose to Confess. I can understand why some people would really value even a 3 percent chance of being proven Innocent (after going through 20 years) but its not something I want to go through.

[Ifreann]

Neither. Escape!

[Page]

I would be more interested in pursuing ways to avoid being imprisoned altogether, such as escape or bribery.

But if you forced me into this dichotomy, I'd definitely confess. 10 years is better than 20 years. And when I finally got out of prison, I would flee the country and declare to the world that my confession was a lie motivated by my own self-interest, and people would either believe me or not but it doesn't really matter.

[Barboneia]

I’d go to the United States embassy and request political asylum back in my home country, all the while questioning why I had moved to such a shithole in the first place.

[Page]

I’d go to the United States embassy and request political asylum back in my home country, all the while questioning why I had moved to such a shithole in the first place.

Unfortunately, the US embassy in IM's Hypothetical Country would probably be shut down because Trump got into a Twitter insult war with the leader of IM's Hypothetical Country and severed diplomatic ties out of spite.

[Mzeusia]

confess, finish the sentence, get out of the country and that's where the plan stops. With ten years i prison, I'd have plenty of time to think about what I would like to do next.

Maybe become a bee-keeper in some remote place.

[Hopeington]

I would not confess that would be a lie and a sin and if worse comes to worse I could always commit suicide by political assassination.

[The New California Republic]

]If you "Confess" you will serve 10 years in prison. However, you will be required to issue a formal and public confession that will be recorded and broadcasted nationwide to the government's satisfaction.

If you do not "Confess," you will serve 20 years in prison.

There is one more consideration:

You know that if you do not Confess, there is a 3 percent chance that after serving your 20 years your innocence will be proven and brought to the public's attention.

If you "Confess," a supernatural mechanism will instantly lower that 3 percent chance of proving your innocence post-sentence to 0 percent. In other words, you will serve your 10 years and be forever stigmatised as a very vile criminal.

The supernatural isn't real, so I can disregard the latter part entirely.

If I knew that I had been framed, then I'd likely have a pretty good idea who did it. Point the finger at them.

[The Grims]

In your scenario confessing boils down to a life sentence.
20 years < life.

[Infected Mushroom]

In your scenario confessing boils down to a life sentence.
20 years < life.

I agree that 20 years is a depressingly long time

[Heloin]

I agree to confess, then at my kangaroo court start shouting names of high ranking members of the state who who helped me and I make sure that I give details of what they did.

[Page]

I would not confess that would be a lie and a sin and if worse comes to worse I could always commit suicide by political assassination.

What kind of God would consider it a sin to lie to those who would do you harm for the sake of protecting yourself and others?

[Vassenor]

A proper authoritarian regime wouldn't even wait for you to actually confess. They'd just say you had confessed (depending on the nature of things possibly even saying you'd confessed to crimes committed before the regime came to power), then gulag you for the rest of your days.

[Hopeington]

I agree to confess, then at my kangaroo court start shouting names of high ranking members of the state who who helped me and I make sure that I give details of what they did.

You sly bastard that's a great idea.

[Vassenor]

I would not confess that would be a lie and a sin and if worse comes to worse I could always commit suicide by political assassination.

What kind of God would consider it a sin to lie to those who would do you harm for the sake of protecting yourself and others?

Honestly, most of what we're constantly told are grave and mortal sins would probably be met with a shrug and a "no biggie" from Pete and the Big G.

[Page]

A proper authoritarian regime wouldn't even wait for you to actually confess. They'd just say you had confessed (depending on the nature of things possibly even saying you'd confessed to crimes committed before the regime came to power), then gulag you for the rest of your days.

That, or drone strike assassination.

[BAKINIABSURD]

I chose no, because in my country there's no such thing as "confession". If you are guilty then you are guilty.

[Vassenor]

I chose no, because in my country there's no such thing as "confession". If you are guilty then you are guilty.

NSG is Out of Character, jsyk.

[The Free Joy State]

I agree to confess, then at my kangaroo court start shouting names of high ranking members of the state who who helped me and I make sure that I give details of what they did.

Brava!

---

As for me (assuming I had no chance to escape before I was picked up and no opportunity to escape after I was picked up), I would agree to confess, but belatedly after they'd roughed me up a bit (as is the style for authoritarian governments). Then, in the most robotic manner possible, I recite the prepared confession "of... my... own... free... will..."

Those who are already having doubts about the evil repressive regime may have doubts about the spontaneity of my confession and -- after I get out of jail and flee for a better country in the middle of the night -- I'll have evidence that my confession was coerced when I apply for political asylum.

[Infected Mushroom]

A proper authoritarian regime wouldn't even wait for you to actually confess. They'd just say you had confessed (depending on the nature of things possibly even saying you'd confessed to crimes committed before the regime came to power), then gulag you for the rest of your days.

This is true

[Infected Mushroom]

I agree to confess, then at my kangaroo court start shouting names of high ranking members of the state who who helped me and I make sure that I give details of what they did.

I genuinely have no idea what you’re on about

[Geneviev]

I won't confess. I didn't do anything wrong and that 3 percent chance is good enough.

[Czechoslovakia and Zakarpattia]

Please consider the following very simple hypothetical:

You live in a fictional authoritarian country.

You have been accused of a very serious, vile, and stigmatising crime. You are in fact innocent and have been framed but no one believes you.

Upon being found guilty, you are told that you can choose to either Admit Guilt ("Confess") or insist upon your innocence.

If you "Confess" you will serve 10 years in prison. However, you will be required to issue a formal and public confession that will be recorded and broadcasted nationwide to the government's satisfaction.

If you do not "Confess," you will serve 20 years in prison.

There is one more consideration:

You know that if you do not Confess, there is a 3 percent chance that after serving your 20 years your innocence will be proven and brought to the public's attention.

If you "Confess," a supernatural mechanism will instantly lower that 3 percent chance of proving your innocence post-sentence to 0 percent. In other words, you will serve your 10 years and be forever stigmatised as a very vile criminal.

In either situation, you will serve some prison time and you will be treated with a great deal of contempt and ostracisation even after you get out; the rest of your life is in all likelihood ruined (quite literally) if you aspire to something like the American Dream.

So do you Confess or do you not Confess? Please justify your decision and discuss your reasoning.

This is a very difficult decision but I don't want to stay in prison longer than I have to so I choose to Confess. I can understand why some people would really value even a 3 percent chance of being proven Innocent (after going through 20 years) but its not something I want to go through.

I choose insist. The truth shall always prevail over lies and hatred and this case is no exception. If I have to spend 20 years in jail to have a chance at clearing my name so be it. Nelson Mandela spent half of his life imprisoned by the South African government for resisting against Apartheid, and in the end, he was freed and he achieved his lifelong dream. A free and equal South Africa without any artificial barriers based on race. And considering this scenario doesn' even factor in the possibility of escape or submitting an appeal in case new evidence is uncovered, I say my chances are good. No confession.

[Wunderstrafanstalt]

So if I don't confess, I will waste 20 years in prison and then there's a 97% chance of not returning my name and live in disgrace just like if you confess? Yeah, no. Besides, you can still do something good after being stigmatized a a very vile criminal or even human rights abuser, like I dunno, running for president. (Wait, that literally happened IRL)

[The Grims]

So if I don't confess, I will waste 20 years in prison and then there's a 97% chance of not returning my name and live in disgrace just like if you confess?

Not entirely - if you confess your face will be on every tvscreen and newspaper in the country and will be recognised by everyone after 10 years.
If you do not you get far less exposure.