by Shrillland » Sat Feb 16, 2019 5:32 pm
by Trumptonium1 » Sat Feb 16, 2019 5:48 pm
Trumptonium1 wrote:As for Spanish politics going right, I don't think society will pull to the right per se. What I do think is that some people on the left may start supporting PP in efforts of pushing Spanish unity and stopping the deadlock over the country. I also think that an increasing portion of the vote will go to Vox, giving Spain its own version of LegaNord et al.
There's no reason Spain is immune to European political trends.
Vox currently commands around 2-3% of the vote, giving them anywhere between 550k to 750k votes on the last few turnouts. This is enough to get a seat in the lower house, and perhaps even more than that. A half-million core base is a good base to launch their campaign from for the next Spanish election in some 5-8 years time. Although I think Vox is doing the wrong thing by no-platforming Catalonia and refusing to field candidates there - it's even more likely that Catalonian PP supporters would go for Vox than anywhere else in the country. That's the place they should start campaigning from.
3-4.5% appears to be a goldilocks zone - those are all the results that Lega Nord, UKIP and AfD got before they became much larger in the subsequent election. They just need the base to move forward from.
Vox is currently polling more for next year's European election - just under 5%, which would give them an MEP seat and potentially a million votes, as well as cementing their place in the top 5 Spanish parties by vote. That's a very good base. They're also very urban just like Lega Nord - their core support comes from the capital Madrid. They received 3.64% of the vote in the 2014 European elections in the city, becoming the fourth largest party. That means at levels of 5% based on the 2014 election, Vox should be looking at 10-12.5% of the vote in Madrid next year.
Vox is something to watch.
by Dresderstan » Sat Feb 16, 2019 6:39 pm
by Shrillland » Sat Feb 16, 2019 6:51 pm
Dresderstan wrote:I think PSOE will win the election and officially hold more seats than the PP, while getting C&S from Unidos Podemos. And yet polling is showing the big three parties (PP, Cs, and Unidos Podemos) lagging behind while Vox has made big gains and is just behind Unidos Podemos.
by Nanatsu no Tsuki » Sat Feb 16, 2019 7:11 pm
Slava Ukraini
Also: THERNSY!!
Your story isn't over;֍Help save transgender people's lives֍Help for feral cats
Cat with internet access||Supposedly heartless, & a d*ck.||Is maith an t-earra an tsíocháin.||No TGsRIP: Dyakovo & Ashmoria
by Shrillland » Sat Feb 16, 2019 7:14 pm
Nanatsu no Tsuki wrote:Spaniard here. It’s always a choice between a turd sandwich and a giant douche. Osea, between PP and PSOE.
by Nanatsu no Tsuki » Sat Feb 16, 2019 7:16 pm
Slava Ukraini
Also: THERNSY!!
Your story isn't over;֍Help save transgender people's lives֍Help for feral cats
Cat with internet access||Supposedly heartless, & a d*ck.||Is maith an t-earra an tsíocháin.||No TGsRIP: Dyakovo & Ashmoria
by Rotar » Sun Feb 17, 2019 12:58 pm
by Shrillland » Sun Feb 17, 2019 2:30 pm
by Shrillland » Sun Feb 24, 2019 5:53 pm
by Kowani » Sun Feb 24, 2019 5:58 pm
by Shrillland » Sun Mar 03, 2019 3:32 pm
by Nanatsu no Tsuki » Mon Mar 04, 2019 7:43 pm
Kowani wrote:If Izquierda Unida gets anywhere, I’ll be fuckin’ happy.
Slava Ukraini
Also: THERNSY!!
Your story isn't over;֍Help save transgender people's lives֍Help for feral cats
Cat with internet access||Supposedly heartless, & a d*ck.||Is maith an t-earra an tsíocháin.||No TGsRIP: Dyakovo & Ashmoria
by Shrillland » Mon Mar 04, 2019 7:47 pm
by Nanatsu no Tsuki » Mon Mar 04, 2019 7:48 pm
Slava Ukraini
Also: THERNSY!!
Your story isn't over;֍Help save transgender people's lives֍Help for feral cats
Cat with internet access||Supposedly heartless, & a d*ck.||Is maith an t-earra an tsíocháin.||No TGsRIP: Dyakovo & Ashmoria
by Shrillland » Mon Mar 11, 2019 10:57 pm
by East Gondwana » Tue Mar 12, 2019 2:37 am
by Western Vale Confederacy » Tue Mar 12, 2019 3:56 am
East Gondwana wrote:Spain's left seems to be holding up better than most other European democracies, so it will be interesting to see where this goes.
I'm hoping for PSOE and UP to pull through.
by First American Empire » Wed Mar 13, 2019 9:16 am
by Liriena » Wed Mar 13, 2019 10:14 am
I am: A pansexual, pantheist, green socialist An aspiring writer and journalist | Political compass stuff: Economic Left/Right: -8.13 Social Libertarian/Authoritarian: -8.92 For: Grassroots democracy, workers' self-management, humanitarianism, pacifism, pluralism, environmentalism, interculturalism, indigenous rights, minority rights, LGBT+ rights, feminism, optimism Against: Nationalism, authoritarianism, fascism, conservatism, populism, violence, ethnocentrism, racism, sexism, religious bigotry, anti-LGBT+ bigotry, death penalty, neoliberalism, tribalism, cynicism ⚧Copy and paste this in your sig if you passed biology and know gender and sex aren't the same thing.⚧ |
by Major-Tom » Wed Mar 13, 2019 11:42 am
by Baltenstein » Wed Mar 13, 2019 11:49 am
Major-Tom wrote:The PP is essentially a mafia under the guise of a political party, Podemos is ineffective at best, Vox peddles far-right nonsense reminiscent of the Franco era, the C's are the dictionary definition of sellouts, and the PSOE is also ineffective and has a tattered history.
Shit. Spain, y'all kinda fucked. I'm just hoping Sanchez can form a coalition, it's the best of the shitty options.
by Nanatsu no Tsuki » Wed Mar 13, 2019 6:49 pm
Liriena wrote:It'd be kinda cool to see a left-wing coalition led by Podemos instead of the PSOE.
Slava Ukraini
Also: THERNSY!!
Your story isn't over;֍Help save transgender people's lives֍Help for feral cats
Cat with internet access||Supposedly heartless, & a d*ck.||Is maith an t-earra an tsíocháin.||No TGsRIP: Dyakovo & Ashmoria
by Shrillland » Wed Mar 13, 2019 6:53 pm
Nanatsu no Tsuki wrote:Liriena wrote:It'd be kinda cool to see a left-wing coalition led by Podemos instead of the PSOE.
Spain suffers from the same syndrome the US does. Two parties: Shit sandwich or giant douche. PSOE or PP. I’m not holding my breath here, mind you, but if the left gets the advantage, I’ll be pleasantly surprised.
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