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2020 Israeli Election

For discussion and debate about anything. (Not a roleplay related forum; out-of-character commentary only.)

Who would you vote for in Israel's election?

Likud
4
14%
Kachol Lavan (Blue and White)
11
39%
Joint List
5
18%
Shas
0
No votes
Yisrael Beiteinu
0
No votes
United Torah Judaism
0
No votes
Labor-Gesher
3
11%
Democratic Union
2
7%
New Right
1
4%
Other (Tkuma, United Jewish Home, Green, &c.)
2
7%
 
Total votes : 28

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Angleter
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2020 Israeli Election

Postby Angleter » Sat Jan 26, 2019 6:57 pm

After an uncharacteristically long short four years seven weeks twelve weeks, Israel is going back to the polls on April 9th September 17th, 2019 March 2nd, 2020.

These new elections follow elections which had been held on April 9th and September 17th, 2019, which themselves had been sparked when Binyamin Netanyahu's right-wing coalition couldn't agree on military service for Haredi (ultra-Orthodox) Jews. The April elections made this quandary even worse by making it impossible for Netanyahu to form his natural coalition without both the Haredi parties and the staunchly secular Yisrael Beiteinu. Netanyahu was unable to get Yisrael Beiteinu's support, failed in a bizarre left-field move to bring Labor into his coalition, and so called elections rather than let the centre-left leader Benny Gantz attempt (probably also in vain) to form a coalition. The September elections produced pretty much exactly the same result, but by this point Yisrael Beiteinu was pushing for a 'unity' government between Netanyahu, Gantz, and themselves. Netanyahu and Gantz couldn't agree on terms, so here we are yet again.

Netanyahu is also the subject of a massive corruption investigation. The Attorney General (who is independent of the government) announced in the middle of the April election campaign that he intended to indict Netanyahu in three corruption cases, but the final decision on indictment was delayed until October, after the September elections. Netanyahu was eventually indicted in November, but refused to resign. He is currently awaiting legal advice from the (same) Attorney General as to whether he can actually remain Prime Minister while under indictment, but for now he is staying in power, and most of his natural coalition partners are continuing to support him. A leadership challenge in his Likud party failed in December. Netanyahu has even suggested legislation to make himself immune from prosecution while Prime Minister, but doesn't have a majority in the Knesset for that.




So who's running?

Everybody. Still everybody, but in larger blocs this time. Everybody again.

Pretty much the entire population of Israel is running in these elections. In April, a whopping 47 parties put forward candidates. In September, only 32 lists were put forward, although this was mostly because multiple parties formed blocs to cross the electoral threshold. These blocs mostly appear to have disintegrated since then.

Israel has a nationwide party-list proportional representation system which allows small parties to flourish, and this has allowed an extraordinary amount of political fragmentation over the last few decades. The threshold to get into the Knesset was raised to 3.25% in 2014 to try and combat this, but it hadn't really worked until April's elections the two largest parties sucked large numbers of voters away from the smaller parties, so enough parties came perilously close to the threshold to terrify some of them into forming larger alliances in September. It remains to be seen whether this will also be the case in March. Also, the good thing about having elections a few months after the last ones is that there wasn't enough time for a whole host of new parties to come out of the woodwork.

Here are the parties with the best chances of winning seats (with the number of seats they won at the last election):

The Joint List (13) :: Led by Ayman Odeh, a former lawyer and Haifa city councillor, the Joint List is an alliance of convenience between four Arab-interest parties – Hadash (communist), Ta'al (Arab nationalist), Balad (more hardline Arab nationalist), and Ra'am (mostly Islamist). This umbrella group was founded for the 2015 elections, briefly split into two parts for the April elections, but have since reunited after many Arab voters, disillusioned with their options, simply stayed home in April, prompting the two rival blocs to reunite in the hope of boosting Arab turnout back to normal levels (it worked). The Joint List generally lean left economically and are focussed on economic development for the Arab community, fighting anti-Arab discrimination, and supporting the Palestinian movement in the West Bank and Gaza. They will not join any coalition, but may support a centre-left coalition from the outside.


Democratic Union (4) :: Led by Nitzan Horowitz, a former news correspondent and Israel's first openly gay party leader, the Democratic Union is an alliance of the socialist Meretz (led by Horowitz) and the liberal Democratic Israel (led by former Labor PM Ehud Barak). The Green Party (see below) was part of the alliance in September but has since left in the hope of bringing together a broader left-wing alliance. This bloc is staunchly environmentalist, feminist, secularist, pro-LGBT, and in favour of a two-state solution broadly along pre-1967 borders. They would be part of a centre-left coalition.

Green Party (1) :: Led by Stav Shaffir, who defected to the party in 2019 after coming second in the Labor leadership election, the Greens have never won seats in their own right, but have occasionally won seats as part of an alliance, like in September when they were in the Democratic Union. It is unclear whether they actually intend to run alone, or if leaving the Democratic Union is just a ploy to form a larger left-wing alliance including Labor (see below). Their views are probably identical to the Democratic Union, except with more of an environmental focus (as you'd expect).

Labor-Gesher (6) :: Led by Amir Peretz, a former trade unionist who's been a permanent fixture in Israeli politics since the 1990s. Labor are social democrats of a broadly 'third way' type, generally secularist, relatively 'dovish' on security issues, and supportive of a two-state solution based on pre-1967 borders but with major West Bank settlement blocs transferred to Israel. However, Peretz believes that his credentials as a former defence minister and outspoken economic populism will help him take working-class Mizrahi voters away from the right-wing parties. To this end, and to avoid having to join the Democratic Union while still crossing the threshold, Peretz has allied with Gesher, a small, relatively hawkish centrist party led by (Mizrahi) former Yisrael Beiteinu (see below) MK Orly Levy. This alliance cleared the threshold in September and Peretz intends for it to continue. Labor-Gesher would probably join a centre-left coalition.

Kachol Lavan (33) :: Led by Benny Gantz, previously head of the Israel Defence Force (IDF). Kachol Lavan, or 'Blue and White', is a sort of centrist super-alliance between Gantz's vaguely centrist Hosen Yisrael party, former newsreader Yair Lapid's socially liberal Yesh Atid party, and former Netanyahu defence minister Moshe Ya'alon's hawkish liberal Telem party. They also have another former IDF chief, independent Gabi Ashkenazi, in their ranks. They appear to be broadly centrist and liberal, and support a two-state solution based on pre-1967 borders but with major West Bank settlement blocs transferred to Israel (although Ya'alon disagrees). They would plan to lead a centre-left coalition government, possibly with Gantz and Lapid rotating the office of Prime Minister. Alternatively, they would like to form a centrist, secularist 'unity' government with Likud and Yisrael Beiteinu (see below), but only if Netanyahu steps down as Likud leader - in that case Gantz would probably rotate the office of PM with the new Likud leader.


Yisrael Beiteinu (8) :: Led by Avigdor Lieberman, Yisrael Beiteinu are essentially a vehicle for his idiosyncratic views. Lieberman sees himself as the standard-bearer of Russian-speaking Israelis' interests, and combines staunchly hawkish and nationalist views, an eccentric peace plan that would exchange major West Bank settlement blocs for Arab-majority areas in Israel proper (whether the Arabs living there like it or not, which they don't), and hardline secularism and social liberalism. Lieberman normally tends towards the right-wing coalition, but left Netanyahu's coalition in late 2018 because he believed it was leaning too much towards the Haredi parties. Lieberman is highly unpredictable, but for now he appears to have found a niche as lead cheerleader for a centrist, secular 'unity' government of himself, Likud (see below), and Kachol Lavan, excluding the Haredi and Arab interest parties.


Likud (32) :: Led by Binyamin Netanyahu, who has been Prime Minister since 2009. Likud are the leading centre-right party in Israel. They are pro-business, 'hawkish' on security issues, appeal to both secular and religious voters, and are moderately conservative on social issues (although they tend to go into coalition with socially conservative religious parties). They blame what they call Israel's left-wing establishment for Netanyahu's corruption investigation, and have become increasingly populist in recent years. This populist turn is unsurprising, considering that Likud's historic base is among working-class voters of Mizrahi origin. Likud's position on a two-state solution is changeable, but Netanyahu currently supports a demilitarised Palestinian state under Israeli security control, and unilateral annexation of parts of the West Bank into Israel.

New Right (3) :: Led by Naftali Bennett, a former special forces soldier and tech entrepreneur, the New Right was initially founded in 2018 as a more moderate splinter from Bayit Yehudi (see below), but failed to reach the electoral threshold in April, so formed an alliance with Bayit Yehudi and Tkuma (see below) for the September elections called Yamina. Yamina got 7 seats in the September election but imploded days after the election, so the New Right are, as it stands, running by themselves this time. They are pro-free market, hawkish, pro-annexing at least part of the West Bank, and opposed to what they consider 'judicial activism'. They want more 'co-operation' between religious and secular Jews. They would join a centre-right coalition.


National Union-Tkuma (2) :: Led by Bezalel Smotrich, a right-wing activist known for a string of 'controversial' comments about gays and Arabs. Tkuma used to be part of an alliance called the National Union, but then everyone except themselves left, so they incorporated it into their name. They represent Religious Zionists who lean towards Haredi Judaism, and were historically seen as a more extreme companion to Bayit Yehudi, who appealed to Modern Orthodox Jews. However, Bayit Yehudi has shifted strongly to the right since the New Right left; and Smotrich is critical of their current alliance with Otzma Yehudit (see below). Tkuma has never run alone, and Smotrich appears to be interested in an alliance with the New Right this time. They are staunchly religious, socially conservative, hawkish, and supportive of annexing the entire West Bank. They would join a centre-right coalition.

United Jewish Home (2) :: Led by Rafi Peretz, a former IDF chief rabbi, the United Jewish Home are an alliance of Bayit Yehudi, a Religious Zionist party for Modern Orthodox Jews, and Otzma Yehudit, an extreme-right, theocratic, anti-Arab party. This alliance (then including Tkuma) was initially created as the United Right for the April elections, as part of Netanyahu's efforts to make sure all the right-wing parties crossed the threshold. In September they called themselves 'Yamina' and swapped out Otzma for the more mainstream New Right. This time it appears to be just Bayit Yehudi and Otzma. The alliance has upset some Bayit Yehudi members, and could yet be reversed. They are staunchly religious, socially conservative, hawkish, and supportive of annexing the entire West Bank. Otzma would also like to annex Gaza and deport any Palestinian Arabs who don't swear loyalty to Israel as a Jewish state. Bayit Yehudi would join a centre-right coalition, but Otzma would probably remain outside.


United Torah Judaism (8) :: Co-led by Yaakov Litzman and Moshe Gafni, UTJ is the party of Ashkenazi (European origin) Haredi Jews. Technically, they're an alliance between a Hasidic party (Agudat Yisrael) and a non-Hasidic party (Degel HaTorah) who occasionally fall out, but are together for now. Their main focus is on preserving Haredi dominance in religious institutions, preventing reform to the relationship between religion and state, and ensuring that Haredi Jews do not get drafted into the IDF (which is what upset Lieberman and caused these new elections). They don't identify as Zionists, and have no position on the Palestinians. They do not let women run as candidates. They tend to join centre-right coalitions.

Shas (8) :: Led by Aryeh Deri, a former yeshiva manager who served as Shas leader in the 1990s before going to prison for corruption. He returned to the leadership in 2013. Shas is the party of Mizrahi Haredi Jews, although it appeals more broadly to conservative Mizrahi Jews. It is also mostly focussed on preserving the position of Haredi Jews, although they also campaign on cost of living issues and oppose discrimination against Mizrahi Jews. They also do not let women run as candidates, and tend to join centre-right coalitions.


Israelis get to decide between this over-long menu of choices on April 9th September 17th March 2nd. In the meantime, the intense competition will inevitably lead to plenty of high drama, Machiavellian horse-trading, and bizarre publicity stunts – Israeli politics is probably the closest the world gets to a TV soap, so whatever happens, it'll certainly be fun.




So who's winning?

Obviously at this stage it's difficult to tell who'll win, not least since 'winning' is a matter of forming a coalition of 61 or more MKs after the election (just ask Netanyahu), but you can find the most recent polls at Knesset Jeremy.



Some good, non-paywalled English-language news sources include The Times of Israel, i24 News, and Jerusalem Post.




So who should win, and what coalition should they form? Personally I'd favour a unity government just to put a stop to this never-ending election machine for a few years. How about yourselves? Who do you want to win, who do you think will win, and do you think Israel should change its electoral system to something that doesn't generate 10,000 new parties an hour?

Also, should Israel introduce direct Prime Ministerial elections to try and break the current deadlock? This idea has come (back) to the fore since the September election. That said, Israel experimented with this in the 1990s and it didn't work, so I'd probably go with no.
Last edited by Angleter on Wed Jan 01, 2020 9:52 am, edited 46 times in total.
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Sicaris
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Postby Sicaris » Sat Jan 26, 2019 7:01 pm

Cool.

Here’s to hoping Likud wins again.
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Sapientia Et Bellum
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Postby Sapientia Et Bellum » Sat Jan 26, 2019 7:06 pm

Yeah, gonna support the continuation of Bibis government
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Len Hyet
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Postby Len Hyet » Sat Jan 26, 2019 7:17 pm

I really hope this pans out and the Likudniks take a back seat for a while. I'd like to see a more center, center-left coalition take form, but I don't see that happening.
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Postby United States of Natan » Sat Jan 26, 2019 7:25 pm

I'd probably support Labor. Certainly not Party List or Likud.
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Woodfiredpizzas
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Postby Woodfiredpizzas » Sat Jan 26, 2019 7:42 pm

None of the above. It’s a collection of left wing failures.
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Thermodolia
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Postby Thermodolia » Sat Jan 26, 2019 8:07 pm

I support Hosen Yisrael. I hope the win enough to upset Likud.
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Postby Shrillland » Sun Jan 27, 2019 10:55 pm

Persoanlly, I'm standing with Meretz on this one. They're the ones with the best platform on Israel's domestic issues and the best solution to the conflict as a whole. Although I don't see much hope and another four years of Likud, Netanyahu, and continuing the wrong path seem the most likely outcome.
Last edited by Shrillland on Sun Jan 27, 2019 10:57 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Postby JituLand » Sun Jan 27, 2019 10:58 pm

Likud leader Netanyahu is like Modi of India. He is right wing, but involved in scams. It is interesting to note that both Modi and Netanyahu will face stiff fight this 2019 8)

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Shrillland
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Postby Shrillland » Sun Jan 27, 2019 11:04 pm

JituLand wrote:Likud leader Netanyahu is like Modi of India. He is right wing, but involved in scams. It is interesting to note that both Modi and Netanyahu will face stiff fight this 2019 8)

It's not really a stiff fight for him. The polls are showing LIkud gaining a seat or two, he can easily find a right-wing coalition among the old and new faces.
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Postby MERIZoC » Mon Jan 28, 2019 3:25 am

Meretz (5) :: Led by Tamar Zandberg, a former college teacher and parliamentary aide, Meretz is a left-wing, social democratic, and environmentalist party, probably similar in outlook to Bernie Sanders, the Canadian NDP, or Jeremy Corbyn (without all the Hamas and Hezbollah stuff). They are staunchly feminist, secularist, pro-Arab and Palestinian rights, and pro-LGBT. A two-state solution along pre-1967 borders is one of their main priorities. They would probably join a centre-left coalition.

lol meretz are not pro palestinian, they dont even support right of return. They're as zionist as the rest.
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Postby Len Hyet » Mon Jan 28, 2019 5:38 pm

MERIZoC wrote:
Meretz (5) :: Led by Tamar Zandberg, a former college teacher and parliamentary aide, Meretz is a left-wing, social democratic, and environmentalist party, probably similar in outlook to Bernie Sanders, the Canadian NDP, or Jeremy Corbyn (without all the Hamas and Hezbollah stuff). They are staunchly feminist, secularist, pro-Arab and Palestinian rights, and pro-LGBT. A two-state solution along pre-1967 borders is one of their main priorities. They would probably join a centre-left coalition.

lol meretz are not pro palestinian, they dont even support right of return. They're as zionist as the rest.

Political party in zionist country is zionist

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Postby Thermodolia » Mon Jan 28, 2019 5:57 pm

Len Hyet wrote:
MERIZoC wrote:lol meretz are not pro palestinian, they dont even support right of return. They're as zionist as the rest.

Political party in zionist country is zionist

Image

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Postby Diopolis » Mon Jan 28, 2019 6:04 pm

So you can't vote for Hamas?
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Postby Liriena » Mon Jan 28, 2019 6:08 pm

Labor (24) :: Led by Avi Gabbay (for now), a former telecoms businessman


I see that the Israeli center-left is just as garbage as the center-left in many Western countries :P
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Postby Liriena » Mon Jan 28, 2019 6:09 pm

Diopolis wrote:So you can't vote for Hamas?

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Postby Western Vale Confederacy » Mon Jan 28, 2019 6:13 pm

Len Hyet wrote:
MERIZoC wrote:lol meretz are not pro palestinian, they dont even support right of return. They're as zionist as the rest.

Political party in zionist country is zionist

Image


literally shaking and spooked rn

Liriena wrote:
Diopolis wrote:So you can't vote for Hamas?

HEZBOL GANG


Zionist NazBols...

Uh.

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Postby Darussalam » Mon Jan 28, 2019 6:17 pm

Yisrael Beitenu is so fucking based
Liriena wrote:
Diopolis wrote:So you can't vote for Hamas?

HEZBOL GANG

He wants to abolish women rights, criminalize homosexuality, promote high fertility rate, punish blasphemy and apostasy, establish cohesive religious communities. Hamas is his best bet

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Angleter
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Postby Angleter » Mon Jan 28, 2019 6:45 pm

Liriena wrote:
Labor (24) :: Led by Avi Gabbay (for now), a former telecoms businessman


I see that the Israeli center-left is just as garbage as the center-left in many Western countries :P


If not more so (from that perspective), given that Gabbay was elected for a centre-right party and served in Netanyahu's coalition before defecting to Labor. But then, Israeli Labor have had a particularly acute case of the Western social democrat crisis of confidence over the last couple of decades, so that's not much of a surprise.
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Postby Angleter » Mon Jan 28, 2019 6:57 pm

In other news, BENNY GANTZ HAS A THEME TUNE

It includes a rap.

Probably because there are so many parties all in fierce competition for attention, Israeli parties have a habit of making theme tunes for their election campaigns. I'll post them as and when I find them. Some highlights from 2015: United Torah Judaism, Shas, Yachad (for some reason the Haredi parties love recording songs), Meretz, Bayit Yehudi
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Postby Taurgha » Tue Jan 29, 2019 5:36 am

Make Israel Mapai Again.

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Postby Page » Tue Jan 29, 2019 5:56 am

There will never ever be peace for Israel and Palestine while Likud is in power. I hope this is Netenyahu's last election and that Israelies will choose a leader who isn't a psychopath.
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Postby Novus America » Tue Jan 29, 2019 6:13 am

Page wrote:There will never ever be peace for Israel and Palestine while Likud is in power. I hope this is Netenyahu's last election and that Israelies will choose a leader who isn't a psychopath.


It is relatively peaceful enough for now. About as good as it will be.
Palestian Israeli peace simply is not going to happen. Ever.
It is a lost cause.

Netanyahu is bad because he is corrupt, but expecting some drastic change in Israel/Palestinian relations is not realistic.
___|_|___ _|__*__|_

Zombie Ike/Teddy Roosevelt 2020.

Novus America represents my vision of an awesome Atompunk near future United States of America expanded to the entire North American continent, Guyana and the Philippines. The population would be around 700 million.
Think something like prewar Fallout, minus the bad stuff.

Politically I am an independent. Pragmatism is my ideology.

User avatar
Angleter
Postmaster-General
 
Posts: 12358
Founded: Apr 27, 2008
Inoffensive Centrist Democracy

Postby Angleter » Wed Jan 30, 2019 6:02 am

Gantz and Ya'alon have agreed to run together. Telem will receive 2nd, 5th, and 8th places on the list; which is quite generous of Gantz, considering that Telem were polling at 0.

However, they don't exactly agree on everything. Which is quite impressive, given that what little Gantz has said has been deliberately tailored to be as vague and inoffensive as possible.
Last edited by Angleter on Wed Jan 30, 2019 6:03 am, edited 1 time in total.
"I gotta tell you, this is just crazy, huh! This is just nuts, OK! Jeezo man."

I am: British, English, Catholic, Unionist, Conservative, Pro-Market, Civil Libertarian, Cultural Nationalist, Constitutional Monarchist, Brexiteer, Localist/British Federalist, Anti-Technocracy, Pro-Democracy, Pro-Parliament, Pro-Zionism.

Defend Parliamentary Sovereignty - Elections Are Advisory - Luttrell for Middlesex 1769 - Bring Back Zac

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Trumptonium1
Senator
 
Posts: 4022
Founded: Apr 03, 2018
Ex-Nation

Postby Trumptonium1 » Wed Jan 30, 2019 7:15 am

Lieberman, but Netanyahu is ok.

Any socially liberal nationalist party is laudable, especially if led by a strongman. I'm jealous of Israel as they have a wide choice of those and have been governed by such for over two decades.
Last edited by Trumptonium1 on Wed Jan 30, 2019 7:16 am, edited 1 time in total.
Preferred pronouns: His Majesty/Your Highness

https://www.bolsonaro.com.br/
Resident Non-Pumpkin Character

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