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2019 US Miscellaneous Election Thread

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Shrillland
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2019 US Miscellaneous Election Thread

Postby Shrillland » Fri Jan 18, 2019 4:46 pm

It may be an odd-numbered year, but there are still states that need governors, ballot initiatives to go through, and byelections in Congress to happen. Needless to say, this will likely be an infrequent thread unless something big comes up like a Senate seat, but it's somewhere where all those things can come up. And we already have one coming for the spring.(March 23 at the latest)

Less than two weeks after the new term began, GOP Congressman Jim Marino(PA-12, State College-Susquehanna Valley) is already resigning to go to the private sector: https://www.cnn.com/2019/01/17/politics/tom-marino-announces-resignation/index.html
At the moment, there's little else to say, but we'll keep posted as things come in, I'm sure. So, you know. Thoughts, views, anything that might relate to miscellaneous votes like this one.

On the immediate subject, I think that is something of a dick move, what about you?

Plebiscite Plaza 2019!

This initiative would allow the state to hold tax money that it's currently required to keep under Colorado's Taxpayer's Bill of Rights(TABOR), a section of Article 10 of the State Constitution that limits how taxes in Colorado can be raised and spent. The money that would be kept in the state's coffers would be used to fund transport, infrastructure, and education. This comes after two bond issue propositions on improving infrastructure were both rejected last year and sits alongside another bond issue for TRANs bonds(Colorado state transportation bonds). As for how it will go, I'm not going to make a projection yet.

Their second proposal will legalise sports betting and impose a 10% tax on all net proceeds. This'll definitely pass.


Kansas will be voting on a Constitutional Amendment that would end the practice of adjusting the census to exclude nonresident military personnel and students and adding resident military personnel and students who claim permanent residency. Kansas is the only state that still does this when apportioning legislators, so it'll probably pass.


This proposal would amend the constitution to allow law enforcement animals, upon their retirement, to be given to their handlers or other qualified caretakers if it's in the animals best interest. Currently, police dogs and horses and the like are classified as salvage and have to be either auctioned, donated to a charity, or put down. This would add giving them to their handlers as an option. A reasonable proposal, and one I think will pass.

Their second proposal would amend the constitution to allow the legislature to double the amount of bonds that the state could give the Cancer Prevention and Research Institute of Texas(CPRIT) from $3 billion to $6 billion, and limit the state to issuing $300 million of bonds annually. CPRIT was created with Prop 15 in 2007 with the initial $3 billion, but they're expected to run out of money as soon as next year, so this would keep them going until roughly 2050. Too early for me to say if it'll pass.


This one doesn't have a number yet, but it's a constitutional amendment that would allow the legislature to pass legislation that would change or address the lines of succession for public officials and their duties in case of catastrophic emergency such as a terrorist attack or a tsunami or an earthquake. Currently, the legislature can only do this in periods of wartime. Seems reasonable enough, I think it'll pass.

Also on the ballot is Initiative 976. It was an initiative to the legislature drafted by Tim Eyman, an anti-tax conservative who's well known for referenda in Washington and in trouble for taking initiative campaign money and using it for himself, but the state legislature has adjourned for the season, so it's going to the voters. This proposal, if approved, will limit annual licence fees for all vehicles under the weight of 10,000 pounds to $30 unless approved by the voters, base all vehicle taxes on Kelley Blue Book values rather than MSRPs like now, repeal motorhome weight fees, repeal a 0.3% tax on new vehicles, get rid of some fees on electric vehicles, and repeal parts of SB 5987, passed in 2015, that allow Sound Transit(Seattle and Tacoma's transit authority) the right to levy motor vehicle excise taxes. Given this is an off-year and those tend to favour the more conservatively minded, I'll say this has a moderate chance of passing.
Last edited by Shrillland on Mon May 13, 2019 10:36 am, edited 13 times in total.
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Postby Tobleste » Fri Jan 18, 2019 5:26 pm

Shrillland wrote:It may be an odd-numbered year, but there are still states that need governors, ballot initiatives to go through, and byelections in Congress to happen. Needless to say, this will likely be an infrequent thread unless something big comes up like a Senate seat, but it's somewhere where all those things can come up. And we already have one coming for the spring.

Less than two weeks after the new term began, GOP Congressman Jim Marion(PA-12, State College-Susquehanna Valley) is already resigning to go to the private sector: [url]Not quite sure where this should go, but we're only two weeks into Congress and there's already a resignation: Republican Jim Marino from PA-12(State College-Susquehanna) is heading to the private sector as of the 23rd.[/url]

At the moment, there's little else to say, but we'll keep posted as things come in, I'm sure. So, you know. Thoughts, views, anything that might relate to miscellaneous votes like this one.

On the immediate subject, I think that is something of a dick move, what about you?


I am curious what #MeToo scandal will feature in a republican election/nomination this year. 2016 saw Trump, 2017 Roy Moore and 2018 Kavanaugh. Presumably, Marion's successor will be romantically involved with a squirrel.

Wrt what you said, it is a dick move to immediately abandon his voters for a job in the private sector but i doubt they're concerned. He was elected to serve the private sector. He's also a normal republican in a safe seat. He's not contributing anything special afaik.
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Postby Shrillland » Fri Jan 18, 2019 5:32 pm

Tobleste wrote:
Shrillland wrote:It may be an odd-numbered year, but there are still states that need governors, ballot initiatives to go through, and byelections in Congress to happen. Needless to say, this will likely be an infrequent thread unless something big comes up like a Senate seat, but it's somewhere where all those things can come up. And we already have one coming for the spring.

Less than two weeks after the new term began, GOP Congressman Jim Marion(PA-12, State College-Susquehanna Valley) is already resigning to go to the private sector: [url]Not quite sure where this should go, but we're only two weeks into Congress and there's already a resignation: Republican Jim Marino from PA-12(State College-Susquehanna) is heading to the private sector as of the 23rd.[/url]

At the moment, there's little else to say, but we'll keep posted as things come in, I'm sure. So, you know. Thoughts, views, anything that might relate to miscellaneous votes like this one.

On the immediate subject, I think that is something of a dick move, what about you?


I am curious what #MeToo scandal will feature in a republican election/nomination this year. 2016 saw Trump, 2017 Roy Moore and 2018 Kavanaugh. Presumably, Marion's successor will be romantically involved with a squirrel.

Wrt what you said, it is a dick move to immediately abandon his voters for a job in the private sector but i doubt they're concerned. He was elected to serve the private sector. He's also a normal republican in a safe seat. He's not contributing anything special afaik.


Sorry, it's Marino, slight typo. But yes, it is quite a safe seat, R+35 from what I understand, and Marino himself has barely gone below 30-points in his margins. We've had something like that In Illinois. Our comptroller won election and then immediately decided to run for Mayor of Chicago next month, and she's actually poised to reach round two at the moment.
Last edited by Shrillland on Fri Jan 18, 2019 5:33 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Postby Tobleste » Fri Jan 18, 2019 5:34 pm

Shrillland wrote:
Tobleste wrote:
I am curious what #MeToo scandal will feature in a republican election/nomination this year. 2016 saw Trump, 2017 Roy Moore and 2018 Kavanaugh. Presumably, Marion's successor will be romantically involved with a squirrel.

Wrt what you said, it is a dick move to immediately abandon his voters for a job in the private sector but i doubt they're concerned. He was elected to serve the private sector. He's also a normal republican in a safe seat. He's not contributing anything special afaik.


Sorry, it's Marino, slight typo. But yes, it is quite a safe seat, R+35 from what I understand, and Marino himself has barely gone below 30-points in his margins. We've had something like that In Illinois. Our comptroller won election and then immediately decided to run for Mayor of Chicago next month, and she's actually poised to reach round two at the moment.


I'd like to think voters would punish the party whose members did that but partisanship likely would prevent that.
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Postby San Lumen » Fri Jan 18, 2019 6:00 pm

Let’s not forget there are also countless municipal and county elections. Plus Virginia, New Jersey, Mississippi and Louisiana will be electing their state legislatures

Louisiana, Kentucky and Mississippi will be electing statewide officials

Next month Chicago will be electing their mayor as citywide officials along with city council
Last edited by San Lumen on Fri Jan 18, 2019 6:02 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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Postby Shrillland » Fri Jan 18, 2019 6:09 pm

San Lumen wrote:Let’s not forget there are also countless municipal and county elections. Plus Virginia, New Jersey, Mississippi and Louisiana will be electing their state legislatures

Louisiana, Kentucky and Mississippi will be electing statewide officials

Next month Chicago will be electing their mayor as citywide officials along with city council


Yep, the 23rd Party Congress will be on February 26, and a runoff in April, which will likely happen with Mendoza and Preckwinkle as close as they are. This will mostly be for the bigger races, so I suppose Chicago, Houston, San Francisco and a few other cities might get mentions. Also, being an odd-year, you might actually get some initiatives in New York, you guys usually do.
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Postby San Lumen » Fri Jan 18, 2019 6:11 pm

Shrillland wrote:
San Lumen wrote:Let’s not forget there are also countless municipal and county elections. Plus Virginia, New Jersey, Mississippi and Louisiana will be electing their state legislatures

Louisiana, Kentucky and Mississippi will be electing statewide officials

Next month Chicago will be electing their mayor as citywide officials along with city council


Yep, the 23rd Party Congress will be on February 26, and a runoff in April, which will likely happen with Mendoza and Preckwinkle as close as they are. This will mostly be for the bigger races, so I suppose Chicago, Houston, San Francisco and a few other cities might get mentions. Also, being an odd-year, you might actually get some initiatives in New York, you guys usually do.

I’m not aware of any as constitutional amendments have to be voted on in two consecutive sessions of the legislature I believe.

Has Chicago ever had a female mayor?

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Postby Shrillland » Fri Jan 18, 2019 6:13 pm

San Lumen wrote:
Shrillland wrote:
Yep, the 23rd Party Congress will be on February 26, and a runoff in April, which will likely happen with Mendoza and Preckwinkle as close as they are. This will mostly be for the bigger races, so I suppose Chicago, Houston, San Francisco and a few other cities might get mentions. Also, being an odd-year, you might actually get some initiatives in New York, you guys usually do.

I’m not aware of any as constitutional amendments have to be voted on in two consecutive sessions of the legislature I believe.

Has Chicago ever had a female mayor?


Yes, they have. Jane Byrne back in '79. Democrat like all the others since 1927. She was good at it, too, she opened the city up like it hadn't been opened in nearly 40 years and allowed TV shows and films to be made there, something Richard J. Daley abhorred with a passion. She only lasted one term though, Harold Washington got in in '83 after she and Richard M. Daley split the white vote. The general election was the closest Chicago got to electing a Republican mayor in decades.

EDIT: Not we obviously, I live downstate.
Last edited by Shrillland on Fri Jan 18, 2019 6:15 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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Postby San Lumen » Fri Jan 18, 2019 6:15 pm

Shrillland wrote:
San Lumen wrote:I’m not aware of any as constitutional amendments have to be voted on in two consecutive sessions of the legislature I believe.

Has Chicago ever had a female mayor?


Yes, we have. Jane Byrne back in '79. Democrat like all the others since 1927. She only lasted one term though, Harold Washington got in in '83 after she and Richard M. split the white vote. The general election was the closest Chicago got to electing a Republican mayor in decades.

I did not know that. New York has never had a female mayor. Several have gotten the nomination but though

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Postby Thermodolia » Fri Jan 18, 2019 6:16 pm

Shrillland wrote:
San Lumen wrote:Let’s not forget there are also countless municipal and county elections. Plus Virginia, New Jersey, Mississippi and Louisiana will be electing their state legislatures

Louisiana, Kentucky and Mississippi will be electing statewide officials

Next month Chicago will be electing their mayor as citywide officials along with city council


Yep, the 23rd Party Congress will be on February 26, and a runoff in April, which will likely happen with Mendoza and Preckwinkle as close as they are. This will mostly be for the bigger races, so I suppose Chicago, Houston, San Francisco and a few other cities might get mentions. Also, being an odd-year, you might actually get some initiatives in New York, you guys usually do.

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Postby San Lumen » Fri Jan 18, 2019 6:17 pm

Thermodolia wrote:
Shrillland wrote:
Yep, the 23rd Party Congress will be on February 26, and a runoff in April, which will likely happen with Mendoza and Preckwinkle as close as they are. This will mostly be for the bigger races, so I suppose Chicago, Houston, San Francisco and a few other cities might get mentions. Also, being an odd-year, you might actually get some initiatives in New York, you guys usually do.

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https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Toni_Preckwinkle

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Postby San Lumen » Tue Jan 22, 2019 8:50 pm

There are also special elections for state legislatives seats throughout the year and there is always the possibility of Congressional special elections.
Last edited by San Lumen on Tue Jan 22, 2019 8:50 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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Postby Shrillland » Tue Jan 22, 2019 9:28 pm

San Lumen wrote:There are also special elections for state legislatives seats throughout the year and there is always the possibility of Congressional special elections.


We already have one byelection coming up in March for State College-Susquehanna, we just don't know who'll be running, it's a safe red seat anyway. There's also the continuing saga of the rigged vote in Charlotte-Fayetteville, but we still don't know how that will end. As for state legislatures, you can add them if you like, but they don't seem all that big to put on here for me.
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Postby San Lumen » Wed Jan 23, 2019 11:54 am

Shrillland wrote:
San Lumen wrote:There are also special elections for state legislatives seats throughout the year and there is always the possibility of Congressional special elections.


We already have one byelection coming up in March for State College-Susquehanna, we just don't know who'll be running, it's a safe red seat anyway. There's also the continuing saga of the rigged vote in Charlotte-Fayetteville, but we still don't know how that will end. As for state legislatures, you can add them if you like, but they don't seem all that big to put on here for me.


Well there are five special elections at the end of February in Connecticut but they are all safe democratic districts save for one

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Postby Shrillland » Fri Jan 25, 2019 1:45 pm

The State College-Susquehanna byelection will be on May 21: http://www.politicspa.com/pa12-special-election-to-replace-marino-set-for-may-21/90144/
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Postby San Lumen » Fri Jan 25, 2019 2:21 pm

Shrillland wrote:The State College-Susquehanna byelection will be on May 21: http://www.politicspa.com/pa12-special-election-to-replace-marino-set-for-may-21/90144/


Its a very red seat so its very doubtful it flips

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Postby San Lumen » Fri Feb 08, 2019 3:54 pm

There is a special election on February 19th for the Virginia House of Delegates in Fairfax county. It should be a safe district but with the scandal involving the three statewide officials who knows what could happen?

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Postby Shrillland » Fri Feb 08, 2019 4:23 pm

San Lumen wrote:There is a special election on February 19th for the Virginia House of Delegates in Fairfax county. It should be a safe district but with the scandal involving the three statewide officials who knows what could happen?


Four actually. I'm not normally one for such small-scale votes, but we'll see how it goes.
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Postby Outer Sparta » Sat Feb 09, 2019 3:57 pm

Kentucky, Mississippi, and Louisiana all have intriguing governor races despite all of them in the south and all of them deep red states.

Kentucky: Matt Bevin vs. Rocky Adkins/Andy Beshear/Matt Edelen
Mississippi: Tate Reeves (most likely R nominee) vs. Jim Hood
Louisiana John Bel Edwards (D) vs. who knows from the R field.
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Postby San Lumen » Sat Feb 09, 2019 10:07 pm

Shrillland wrote:
San Lumen wrote:There is a special election on February 19th for the Virginia House of Delegates in Fairfax county. It should be a safe district but with the scandal involving the three statewide officials who knows what could happen?


Four actually. I'm not normally one for such small-scale votes, but we'll see how it goes.

They can be quite predictive believe it or not of the popularity of a executive and the national trend
Outer Sparta wrote:Kentucky, Mississippi, and Louisiana all have intriguing governor races despite all of them in the south and all of them deep red states.

Kentucky: Matt Bevin vs. Rocky Adkins/Andy Beshear/Matt Edelen
Mississippi: Tate Reeves (most likely R nominee) vs. Jim Hood
Louisiana John Bel Edwards (D) vs. who knows from the R field.


Kentucky could very well flip as Bevin is very unpopular and Louisiana is probably lean D

Mississippi is a whole other ballgame. Its probingly lean Republican but Democrats have a excellent candidate in Jin Hood. Hood however could be screwed over by a Jim Crow era law that requires a candidate to win a majority of the State House districts a very difficult feat for a Democrat to pull off. It neither candidate wins a majority of seats the election is thrown to the state legislature who even if Hood won the most votes could give the election to the Republican.

Hopefully the law is challenged in court as a violation one man, one vote which it almost certainly is.

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Postby Outer Sparta » Sat Feb 09, 2019 10:26 pm

San Lumen wrote:
Shrillland wrote:
Four actually. I'm not normally one for such small-scale votes, but we'll see how it goes.

They can be quite predictive believe it or not of the popularity of a executive and the national trend
Outer Sparta wrote:Kentucky, Mississippi, and Louisiana all have intriguing governor races despite all of them in the south and all of them deep red states.

Kentucky: Matt Bevin vs. Rocky Adkins/Andy Beshear/Matt Edelen
Mississippi: Tate Reeves (most likely R nominee) vs. Jim Hood
Louisiana John Bel Edwards (D) vs. who knows from the R field.


Kentucky could very well flip as Bevin is very unpopular and Louisiana is probably lean D

Mississippi is a whole other ballgame. Its probingly lean Republican but Democrats have a excellent candidate in Jin Hood. Hood however could be screwed over by a Jim Crow era law that requires a candidate to win a majority of the State House districts a very difficult feat for a Democrat to pull off. It neither candidate wins a majority of seats the election is thrown to the state legislature who even if Hood won the most votes could give the election to the Republican.

Hopefully the law is challenged in court as a violation one man, one vote which it almost certainly is.

The thing is it's Mississippi and they seem to be way behind the rest of the country. They didn't ratify the 13th until 1995 or something and these election laws are just archaic.
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Postby San Lumen » Sat Feb 09, 2019 10:27 pm

Outer Sparta wrote:
San Lumen wrote:They can be quite predictive believe it or not of the popularity of a executive and the national trend

Kentucky could very well flip as Bevin is very unpopular and Louisiana is probably lean D

Mississippi is a whole other ballgame. Its probingly lean Republican but Democrats have a excellent candidate in Jin Hood. Hood however could be screwed over by a Jim Crow era law that requires a candidate to win a majority of the State House districts a very difficult feat for a Democrat to pull off. It neither candidate wins a majority of seats the election is thrown to the state legislature who even if Hood won the most votes could give the election to the Republican.

Hopefully the law is challenged in court as a violation one man, one vote which it almost certainly is.

The thing is it's Mississippi and they seem to be way behind the rest of the country. They didn't ratify the 13th until 1995 or something and these election laws are just archaic.


They sure do. its a unfair and likely unconstitutional law and should be overturned in court.
Last edited by San Lumen on Sat Feb 09, 2019 10:32 pm, edited 2 times in total.

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Postby Outer Sparta » Sat Feb 09, 2019 10:30 pm

San Lumen wrote:
Outer Sparta wrote:The thing is it's Mississippi and they seem to be way behind the rest of the country. They didn't ratify the 13th until 1995 or something and these election laws are just archaic.


They sure do. its a unfair and likely unconstitutional law and should be overturned in court.

The only way I know about these 2019 races and such is because I tune into Reddit lol.
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Postby San Lumen » Sat Feb 09, 2019 10:32 pm

Outer Sparta wrote:
San Lumen wrote:
They sure do. its a unfair and likely unconstitutional law and should be overturned in court.

The only way I know about these 2019 races and such is because I tune into Reddit lol.


I never use it.

and I meant to say regarding special elections they are often seen as referendums on the executive branch in a state and can be very predictive of the national trend. Connecticut will have five special elections for the state legislature February 26th after the incumbents resigned to take positions in Ned Lamont's administration

Plus there is a special election the same date as the Chicago Mayoral election for New York City Public Advocate due to the incumbent's Letita James's resignation due to being elected Attorney General.

The election is unique in that the race is technically non-partisan. Each candidate creates their own party line that cannot resemble an existing political party which is NYC law for special elections. There are seventeen candidates and only two are registered Republicans. There will a special primary in June to decide the candidates for the special general election in November to fill out the remainder of the term which expires in 2021.
Last edited by San Lumen on Sat Feb 09, 2019 10:40 pm, edited 4 times in total.

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Postby Shrillland » Sun Feb 10, 2019 1:18 am

San Lumen wrote:
Shrillland wrote:
Four actually. I'm not normally one for such small-scale votes, but we'll see how it goes.

They can be quite predictive believe it or not of the popularity of a executive and the national trend
Outer Sparta wrote:Kentucky, Mississippi, and Louisiana all have intriguing governor races despite all of them in the south and all of them deep red states.

Kentucky: Matt Bevin vs. Rocky Adkins/Andy Beshear/Matt Edelen
Mississippi: Tate Reeves (most likely R nominee) vs. Jim Hood
Louisiana John Bel Edwards (D) vs. who knows from the R field.


Kentucky could very well flip as Bevin is very unpopular and Louisiana is probably lean D

Mississippi is a whole other ballgame. Its probingly lean Republican but Democrats have a excellent candidate in Jin Hood. Hood however could be screwed over by a Jim Crow era law that requires a candidate to win a majority of the State House districts a very difficult feat for a Democrat to pull off. It neither candidate wins a majority of seats the election is thrown to the state legislature who even if Hood won the most votes could give the election to the Republican.

Hopefully the law is challenged in court as a violation one man, one vote which it almost certainly is.



Where are you getting this, I'm not seeing it anywhere.

EDIT: Never mind, I found it.
Last time this happened was in 1999, for anyone interested, and the prevailing opinion at the time was that the popular vote winner should get the House's nod, but this is a different world from that time.
Last edited by Shrillland on Sun Feb 10, 2019 1:23 am, edited 2 times in total.
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