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Hezbollah's Hassan Nasrallah hospitalized

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The Eternal Aulus
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Hezbollah's Hassan Nasrallah hospitalized

Postby The Eternal Aulus » Sat Jan 12, 2019 2:31 pm

From the Israel National News

The Lebanese media reported on Saturday that Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah was hospitalized after apparently suffering a heart attack.

Additional reports said that Nasrallah is also fighting cancer.

Israel Hayom quoted Lebanese journalist Jerry Mahar as saying that "an intelligence source confirmed that a senior figure in the Hezbollah organization was hospitalized today in a hospital in the capital Beirut, and other sources confirmed that it was Sheikh Hassan Nasrallah, who has been fighting cancer for years."

The reports were not confirmed by any official source in the country and Hezbollah did not respond to the report.

Nasrallah has not been seen in the media since reports of the exposure of Hezbollah tunnels in Operation Defensive Shield.


Whilst official channels haven't yet announced it its not, in my opinion, weird that they do this. If Nasrallah is in critical condition or, if he is already dead, then that would destabilize Hezbollah and because Hezbollah is very integral to the Lebanese state it'd also destabilize Lebanon itself. What does NSG think about this? What does this mean for Lebanon's future if this news is correct and if he's dying? Will this influence the political balance in the Middle East?
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Normund
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Postby Normund » Sat Jan 12, 2019 2:34 pm

Pardon if this isn’t topical, but how integral exactly is Hezbollah to Lebanon’s stability? How are they viewed in Lebanon itself, and do they have any real local support?
I’m misinformed on this, so my apologies for the questions.
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The Eternal Aulus
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Postby The Eternal Aulus » Sat Jan 12, 2019 2:36 pm

Normund wrote:Pardon if this isn’t topical, but how integral exactly is Hezbollah to Lebanon’s stability? How are they viewed in Lebanon itself, and do they have any real local support?
I’m misinformed on this, so my apologies for the questions.

As taken from here

Hezbollah has evolved significantly from its origins as a guerilla group in the early 1980s into a major political and military force. In defiance of U.N. resolutions and international agreements demanding its disarmament, Hezbollah has used its military strength, political power, and grassroots popularity to integrate itself into Lebanese society. Hezbollah has also created its own educational and social institutions that run parallel to the Lebanese state. As a result of these efforts, Hezbollah today wields significant influence across Lebanon’s various sectors.

As head of Lebanon’s pro-Syrian parliamentary bloc, Hezbollah wields tremendous sway over the direction and stability of the government. The Hezbollah-led parliamentary coalition—referred to as March 8—has held 57 of Lebanon’s 128 parliamentary seats since the 2009 elections. After Lebanon elected Hezbollah ally Michel Aoun to the presidency in October 2016, March 8 received 17 of 30 cabinet positions, thus cementing Hezbollah’s continued influence in the country.
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Normund
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Postby Normund » Sat Jan 12, 2019 2:39 pm

@The Eternal Aulus

I see. Thanks. I’m more often than not quite uninformed about the Middle East and its political ongoings. So, I suppose in some ways the hospitalisation is concerning - but it’s bound to be welcomed and probably celebrated in Israel and elsewhere.
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The Eternal Aulus
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Postby The Eternal Aulus » Sat Jan 12, 2019 2:40 pm

Normund wrote:@The Eternal Aulus

I see. Thanks. I’m more often than not quite uninformed about the Middle East and its political ongoings. So, I suppose in some ways the hospitalisation is concerning - but it’s bound to be welcomed and probably celebrated in Israel and elsewhere.

I think it's welcomed in Israel definitly, but in the already fragile Lebanon itself? I doubt it.
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Normund
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Postby Normund » Sat Jan 12, 2019 2:44 pm

The Eternal Aulus wrote:
Normund wrote:@The Eternal Aulus

I see. Thanks. I’m more often than not quite uninformed about the Middle East and its political ongoings. So, I suppose in some ways the hospitalisation is concerning - but it’s bound to be welcomed and probably celebrated in Israel and elsewhere.

I think it's welcomed in Israel definitly, but in the already fragile Lebanon itself? I doubt it.

I agree. I rarely have any high hopes for the stability and security of the ME, Arab World and so on. I don’t have good predictions for Lebanon. I just hope it can somehow keep itself together and somewhat stable.
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Postby The Eternal Aulus » Sat Jan 12, 2019 2:45 pm

Normund wrote:
The Eternal Aulus wrote:I think it's welcomed in Israel definitly, but in the already fragile Lebanon itself? I doubt it.

I agree. I rarely have any high hopes for the stability and security of the ME, Arab World and so on. I don’t have good predictions for Lebanon. I just hope it can somehow keep itself together and somewhat stable.

It's not impossible but I wouldn't be suprised that groups make use of the momentum now. Especially considering armed militias are not a rare sight, even for ME standards, in Lebanon.

There's a Syrian joke that shit really has hit the fan when Lebanon is considered (one of) the most stable country in the ME (which it is now).
Last edited by The Eternal Aulus on Sat Jan 12, 2019 2:46 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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Postby Normund » Sat Jan 12, 2019 3:00 pm

The Eternal Aulus wrote:
Normund wrote:I agree. I rarely have any high hopes for the stability and security of the ME, Arab World and so on. I don’t have good predictions for Lebanon. I just hope it can somehow keep itself together and somewhat stable.

It's not impossible but I wouldn't be suprised that groups make use of the momentum now. Especially considering armed militias are not a rare sight, even for ME standards, in Lebanon.

There's a Syrian joke that shit really has hit the fan when Lebanon is considered (one of) the most stable country in the ME (which it is now).

That is a rather morbid joke, though not one I don’t see the truth in. Here’s hoping things don’t go from pan to fire.
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Liriena wrote:HEZBOL GANG REPRESENT!!!


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Western Vale Confederacy wrote:
Liriena wrote:HEZBOL GANG REPRESENT!!!


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Postby Northwest Slobovia » Sat Jan 12, 2019 4:43 pm

The Eternal Aulus wrote:
Normund wrote:@The Eternal Aulus

I see. Thanks. I’m more often than not quite uninformed about the Middle East and its political ongoings. So, I suppose in some ways the hospitalisation is concerning - but it’s bound to be welcomed and probably celebrated in Israel and elsewhere.

I think it's welcomed in Israel definitly, but in the already fragile Lebanon itself? I doubt it.

Nope. The last thing they need is for Hezb Allah to have leadership struggles now. Well, next to last; last would be another round of serious fighting, either a renewed civil war or more fighting with Israel.
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I just read about this person. I know who he is but I didn't know what he did. According to wiki he seems like a pretty awesome person.
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Postby Scomagia » Sat Jan 12, 2019 4:57 pm

El-Amin Caliphate wrote:I just read about this person. I know who he is but I didn't know what he did. According to wiki he seems like a pretty awesome person.

I guess you consider leading a terrorist organization to be "pretty awesome"?

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hezboll ... nybooks-72
Wikipedia wrote:In June 2002, shortly after the Israeli government launched Operation Defensive Shield, Nasrallah gave a speech in which he defended and praised suicide bombings of Israeli civilians by members of Palestinian groups for "creating a deterrence and equalizing fear." Nasrallah stated that "in occupied Palestine there is no difference between a soldier and a civilian, for they are all invaders, occupiers and usurpers of the land."

That totally sounds like something an "awesome" person would say. :roll:
Last edited by Scomagia on Sat Jan 12, 2019 4:58 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Postby El-Amin Caliphate » Sat Jan 12, 2019 5:13 pm

Scomagia wrote:
El-Amin Caliphate wrote:I just read about this person. I know who he is but I didn't know what he did. According to wiki he seems like a pretty awesome person.

I guess you consider leading a terrorist organization to be "pretty awesome"?

I didn't say anything about Hizbullah. I'm talking about Hasan Nasrallah.
Also, has Hizbullah committed any recent terrorist attacks? If so, have they apologised and made up for it?
Scomagia wrote:https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hezbollah_military_activities#cite_note-nybooks-72
Wikipedia wrote:In June 2002, shortly after the Israeli government launched Operation Defensive Shield, Nasrallah gave a speech in which he defended and praised suicide bombings of Israeli civilians by members of Palestinian groups for "creating a deterrence and equalizing fear." Nasrallah stated that "in occupied Palestine there is no difference between a soldier and a civilian, for they are all invaders, occupiers and usurpers of the land."

That totally sounds like something an "awesome" person would say. :roll:

Oh....I didn't see that part. Has he retracted that statement?
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Postby Xmara » Sat Jan 12, 2019 5:18 pm

With any luck there will be one less terrorist group operating in the Middle East.
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Postby MERIZoC » Sat Jan 12, 2019 5:57 pm

Nobody reputable is reporting this so it's likely nonsense, but even in the case that its not, to answer a couple things in the thread: Yes, Nasrallah is a very important figure in Hezbollah and his death would be a great loss, but it would be unlikely to destabilize the organization. Hezbollah has an effective and developed bureaucracy, and a successor would have legitimacy and respect. In fact, out of all the Lebanese parties, Hezbollah is probably the most equipped for leadership change, since they don't have say, the personal rivalries of FPM, or the complete concentration on one figure with no plan beyond that, like Amal. Nasrallah is not what gives his party legitimacy, unlike Aoun, Hariri, Berri, Joumblatt, etc. If Hezb were dramatically destabilized though, yes that would be bad for Lebanon, as it would leave it open to zionist aggression as well as internal strife caused by a rapid shift in the balance of power. But I find that scenario very unlikely.
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Postby MERIZoC » Sat Jan 12, 2019 6:03 pm

The Eternal Aulus wrote:
Normund wrote:Pardon if this isn’t topical, but how integral exactly is Hezbollah to Lebanon’s stability? How are they viewed in Lebanon itself, and do they have any real local support?
I’m misinformed on this, so my apologies for the questions.

As taken from here

Hezbollah has evolved significantly from its origins as a guerilla group in the early 1980s into a major political and military force. In defiance of U.N. resolutions and international agreements demanding its disarmament, Hezbollah has used its military strength, political power, and grassroots popularity to integrate itself into Lebanese society. Hezbollah has also created its own educational and social institutions that run parallel to the Lebanese state. As a result of these efforts, Hezbollah today wields significant influence across Lebanon’s various sectors.

As head of Lebanon’s pro-Syrian parliamentary bloc, Hezbollah wields tremendous sway over the direction and stability of the government. The Hezbollah-led parliamentary coalition—referred to as March 8—has held 57 of Lebanon’s 128 parliamentary seats since the 2009 elections. After Lebanon elected Hezbollah ally Michel Aoun to the presidency in October 2016, March 8 received 17 of 30 cabinet positions, thus cementing Hezbollah’s continued influence in the country.

lol I don't know what "Counter Extremism Project" is, but whoever wrote this either clearly has no idea what they're talking about, or doesn't care about the facts. Hezbollah is a component of March 8, and it doesn't "lead" the alliance, nobody does. Hezb has 13 seats in parliament and in the last cabinet they had two slots. Hezbollah is unique in their military power, but trying to emphasize their parliamentary influence is really strange. Several other parties have just as much sway.
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Postby Novus America » Sat Jan 12, 2019 6:03 pm

Normund wrote:Pardon if this isn’t topical, but how integral exactly is Hezbollah to Lebanon’s stability? How are they viewed in Lebanon itself, and do they have any real local support?
I’m misinformed on this, so my apologies for the questions.


Hezbollah actively undermines Lebanese security. It runs an extra legal to illegal parallel state, while at the same time pushing extremism and undermining the state from within by more legal means.

Hezbollah does have real support from certain segments of Lebanon, but they do not contribute to stability. They of course do the opposite.

Parallel states and unregulated, unofficial armed forces are never good for stability.
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Postby Scomagia » Sat Jan 12, 2019 6:05 pm

El-Amin Caliphate wrote:
Scomagia wrote:I guess you consider leading a terrorist organization to be "pretty awesome"?

I didn't say anything about Hizbullah. I'm talking about Hasan Nasrallah.
Also, has Hizbullah committed any recent terrorist attacks? If so, have they apologised and made up for it?
Scomagia wrote:https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hezbollah_military_activities#cite_note-nybooks-72
That totally sounds like something an "awesome" person would say. :roll:

Oh....I didn't see that part. Has he retracted that statement?

How do you apologize and make up for terrorism, exactly? And why does it matter if the last attack was five minutes or five years ago? It's pretty sketchy that you'd even ask these questions.

He has not, to my knowledge, made a retraction.
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Postby Novus America » Sat Jan 12, 2019 6:08 pm

Northwest Slobovia wrote:
The Eternal Aulus wrote:I think it's welcomed in Israel definitly, but in the already fragile Lebanon itself? I doubt it.

Nope. The last thing they need is for Hezb Allah to have leadership struggles now. Well, next to last; last would be another round of serious fighting, either a renewed civil war or more fighting with Israel.


True Hezbollah going through an internal conflict would be problematic.
But the best thing for Lebanon would be for Hezbollah to not exist at all.

Unfortunately there is no easy way to get rid of it.
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Postby Northwest Slobovia » Sat Jan 12, 2019 6:09 pm

MERIZoC wrote:Nobody reputable is reporting this so it's likely nonsense

It is the middle of the night in the Middle East; it would be just after 3AM now (it's a little 8PM EST my time) So, that's hardly surprising. Reputable sources are asleep in their beds. :P

MERIZoC wrote:Yes, Nasrallah is a very important figure in Hezbollah and his death would be a great loss, but it would be unlikely to destabilize the organization. Hezbollah has an effective and developed bureaucracy, and a successor would have legitimacy and respect.

Succession struggles happen even in real nations with effective and developed bureaucracies™. Much depends on things we don't know.
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