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US Midterm Elections Megathread III: Hitting The Wall

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Farnhamia
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US Midterm Elections Megathread III: Hitting The Wall

Postby Farnhamia » Wed Oct 31, 2018 10:47 am

So anyway ...

Here are links to the source Morgantown WV used in the previous OPs:

House: https://insideelections.com/ratings/house (Republicans have a 240-195 majority. Democrats need a net gain of 23 seats for a majority. Most likely outcome: Democratic gain of 25-35 seats, with larger gains possible.)

Senate: https://insideelections.com/ratings/senate (Republicans have a 51-49 majority. Outlook: No net change to GOP +3.)

Governorships: https://insideelections.com/ratings/governor (Republicans currently control 33 governorships to Democrats’ 16, with one Independent in Alaska.Democrats most likely to gain 6-8 governorships, but greater gains are possible.)
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Postby Soldati Senza Confini » Wed Oct 31, 2018 10:49 am

Thank you, Farn. :hug:

Anyways, I voted against Cruz, but I am not sure that Cruz is going to lose the state race. If anything I think he's going to win. Texas Republicans seem to be energized this midterm elections, so I don't trust the "house effect" from 538 at all. If anything I think this midterm is not going to see the same trend other midterms have historically.
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Postby Washington Resistance Army » Wed Oct 31, 2018 10:50 am

Soldati Senza Confini wrote:Thank you, Farn. :hug:

Anyways, I voted against Cruz, but I am not sure that Cruz is going to lose the state race. If anything I think he's going to win. Texas Republicans seem to be energized this midterm elections, so I don't trust the "house effect" from 538 at all. If anything I think this midterm is not going to see the same trend other midterms have historically.


Please don't tell me you voted for Beto lol
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Postby San Lumen » Wed Oct 31, 2018 10:51 am

https://www.freep.com/story/news/politi ... 823855002/
Republican nominee for Governor of Michigan Bill Schuette has cancelled all tv ads outside of the Detroit metro area.
This sounds like a admission of loss to me or Bill Schuette access to internal polling that he is going to win every county in Michigan despite being down double digits and wants to pad his margin by winning Wayne County.
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Postby Soldati Senza Confini » Wed Oct 31, 2018 10:52 am

Washington Resistance Army wrote:
Soldati Senza Confini wrote:Thank you, Farn. :hug:

Anyways, I voted against Cruz, but I am not sure that Cruz is going to lose the state race. If anything I think he's going to win. Texas Republicans seem to be energized this midterm elections, so I don't trust the "house effect" from 538 at all. If anything I think this midterm is not going to see the same trend other midterms have historically.


Please don't tell me you voted for Beto lol


I may or may not have voted for Neal Dikeman. :p

I just wasn't going to vote for Cruz tho. I can't vote for someone I don't respect.
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Postby Great Franconia and Verana » Wed Oct 31, 2018 10:52 am

Soldati Senza Confini wrote:Thank you, Farn. :hug:

Anyways, I voted against Cruz, but I am not sure that Cruz is going to lose the state race. If anything I think he's going to win. Texas Republicans seem to be energized this midterm elections, so I don't trust the "house effect" from 538 at all. If anything I think this midterm is not going to see the same trend other midterms have historically.

It appears that the House is moving farther in favour of the Dems and the Senate is solidly GOP.

It will be an interesting dynamic, but I believe, speaking of Texas specifically, Cruz will win by a substantially decreased margin.
Maybe 52-45 for Cruz?
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Postby San Lumen » Wed Oct 31, 2018 10:53 am

Great Franconia and Verana wrote:
Soldati Senza Confini wrote:Thank you, Farn. :hug:

Anyways, I voted against Cruz, but I am not sure that Cruz is going to lose the state race. If anything I think he's going to win. Texas Republicans seem to be energized this midterm elections, so I don't trust the "house effect" from 538 at all. If anything I think this midterm is not going to see the same trend other midterms have historically.

It appears that the House is moving farther in favour of the Dems and the Senate is solidly GOP.

It will be an interesting dynamic, but I believe, speaking of Texas specifically, Cruz will win by a substantially decreased margin.
Maybe 52-45 for Cruz?

Although Nevada and Arizona are looking promising. If they both flip and Heidikamp loses you would have tied senate. I wonder how that would play out in this hyper partisan environment.
Last edited by San Lumen on Wed Oct 31, 2018 10:54 am, edited 1 time in total.

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Postby Valrifell » Wed Oct 31, 2018 10:55 am

San Lumen wrote:
Great Franconia and Verana wrote:It appears that the House is moving farther in favour of the Dems and the Senate is solidly GOP.

It will be an interesting dynamic, but I believe, speaking of Texas specifically, Cruz will win by a substantially decreased margin.
Maybe 52-45 for Cruz?

Although Nevada and Arizona are looking promising. If they both flip and Heidikamp loses you would have tied senate. I wonder how that would play out in this hyper partisan environment.


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Postby Soldati Senza Confini » Wed Oct 31, 2018 10:55 am

Great Franconia and Verana wrote:
Soldati Senza Confini wrote:Thank you, Farn. :hug:

Anyways, I voted against Cruz, but I am not sure that Cruz is going to lose the state race. If anything I think he's going to win. Texas Republicans seem to be energized this midterm elections, so I don't trust the "house effect" from 538 at all. If anything I think this midterm is not going to see the same trend other midterms have historically.

It appears that the House is moving farther in favour of the Dems and the Senate is solidly GOP.

It will be an interesting dynamic, but I believe, speaking of Texas specifically, Cruz will win by a substantially decreased margin.
Maybe 52-45 for Cruz?


I'm not sure I would put it as 52-45, if anything I think the margin will be much larger for Cruz.

He has been able to manage to hold on to Republicans despite his pathetic demeanor after he lost in 2016.
Last edited by Soldati Senza Confini on Wed Oct 31, 2018 10:56 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Postby Soldati Senza Confini » Wed Oct 31, 2018 10:57 am

The fact he managed to hold on to his Republican base is even more impressive considering the fact you would have expected him to be primaried out of office.
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Tekania wrote:Welcome to NSG, where informed opinions get to bump-heads with ignorant ideology under the pretense of an equal footing.

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Postby Great Franconia and Verana » Wed Oct 31, 2018 10:57 am

San Lumen wrote:
Great Franconia and Verana wrote:It appears that the House is moving farther in favour of the Dems and the Senate is solidly GOP.

It will be an interesting dynamic, but I believe, speaking of Texas specifically, Cruz will win by a substantially decreased margin.
Maybe 52-45 for Cruz?

Although Nevada and Arizona are looking promising. If they both flip and Heidikamp loses you would have tied senate. I wonder how that would play out in this hyper partisan environment.


The problem is that if Heitkamp loses, which is likely, there is a good chance that McCaskill could be in danger of being tossed too.
The situation seems to have stabilized for Nelson in Florida, but polls for the Democrats are lukewarm at best for Nevada and Arizona.
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Postby Valrifell » Wed Oct 31, 2018 10:57 am

Soldati Senza Confini wrote:
Great Franconia and Verana wrote:It appears that the House is moving farther in favour of the Dems and the Senate is solidly GOP.

It will be an interesting dynamic, but I believe, speaking of Texas specifically, Cruz will win by a substantially decreased margin.
Maybe 52-45 for Cruz?


I'm not sure I would put it as 52-45, if anything I think the margin will be much larger for Cruz.

He has been able to manage to hold on to Republicans despite his pathetic demeanor after he lost in 2016.


I do think that, while the media has certainly not been ignoring Mr. O'Rourke, pollsters have lowballed his support in the state.
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Postby San Lumen » Wed Oct 31, 2018 10:59 am

Great Franconia and Verana wrote:
San Lumen wrote:Although Nevada and Arizona are looking promising. If they both flip and Heidikamp loses you would have tied senate. I wonder how that would play out in this hyper partisan environment.


The problem is that if Heitkamp loses, which is likely, there is a good chance that McCaskill could be in danger of being tossed too.
The situation seems to have stabilized for Nelson in Florida, but polls for the Democrats are lukewarm at best for Nevada and Arizona.

Yet early voting looks very good for Democrats there. Nevada is the only state where its predictive.

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Postby Soldati Senza Confini » Wed Oct 31, 2018 10:59 am

Valrifell wrote:
Soldati Senza Confini wrote:
I'm not sure I would put it as 52-45, if anything I think the margin will be much larger for Cruz.

He has been able to manage to hold on to Republicans despite his pathetic demeanor after he lost in 2016.


I do think that, while the media has certainly not been ignoring Mr. O'Rourke, pollsters have lowballed his support in the state.


With good reason to be fair.

He is more popular in Southern Texas' democratic cities than he is up here in North Texas.
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Postby San Lumen » Wed Oct 31, 2018 11:00 am

Soldati Senza Confini wrote:
Valrifell wrote:
I do think that, while the media has certainly not been ignoring Mr. O'Rourke, pollsters have lowballed his support in the state.


With good reason to be fair.

He is more popular in Southern Texas' democratic cities than he is up here in North Texas.

But if those cities turnout in large numbers could it offset large victories for Cruz there?

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Postby Valrifell » Wed Oct 31, 2018 11:02 am

San Lumen wrote:
Soldati Senza Confini wrote:
With good reason to be fair.

He is more popular in Southern Texas' democratic cities than he is up here in North Texas.

But if those cities turnout in large numbers could it offset large victories for Cruz there?


It hasn't yet. And I sincerely doubt theres a large enough polling error for O'Rourke to pull out a win. I do have a sneaking suspicion the margin will be five points or less, though, in spite of recent polls saying a 9-10 point difference.
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Postby Soldati Senza Confini » Wed Oct 31, 2018 11:04 am

San Lumen wrote:
Soldati Senza Confini wrote:
With good reason to be fair.

He is more popular in Southern Texas' democratic cities than he is up here in North Texas.

But if those cities turnout in large numbers could it offset large victories for Cruz there?


I don't think it could, to be fair.

I mean, the only big city that could do so is Houston if they unanimously threw their weight behind O'Rourke.

That's not gonna happen. Austin and El Paso combined can't even begin to deal with how many voters we have in DFW alone as a matter of "offsetting" anything, let alone deal with all the rural areas over here that vote unanimously or with wide margins red.
Last edited by Soldati Senza Confini on Wed Oct 31, 2018 11:05 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Postby Soldati Senza Confini » Wed Oct 31, 2018 11:07 am

Valrifell wrote:
San Lumen wrote:But if those cities turnout in large numbers could it offset large victories for Cruz there?


It hasn't yet. And I sincerely doubt theres a large enough polling error for O'Rourke to pull out a win. I do have a sneaking suspicion the margin will be five points or less, though, in spite of recent polls saying a 9-10 point difference.


I mean, he is widely popular in liberal college towns, tho that's mostly College Station, San Marcos, and a few others. Which in terms of voting population is not a lot.

Big cities like Dallas, Fort Worth, Houston, and El Paso is more split.
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Tekania wrote:Welcome to NSG, where informed opinions get to bump-heads with ignorant ideology under the pretense of an equal footing.

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Postby Great Franconia and Verana » Wed Oct 31, 2018 11:09 am

So what do we think about the Senate race in Florida, and the Governors races in Ohio and Georgia?

Looking at the recent polling, Nelson seems to have solidified a decent lead (2-3%) over Scott.
Cordray is winning in most polls I have seen by some decent numbers.
Abrams and Kemp look nearly tied. That would be interesting if neither reaches 50%, as that would then necessitate a run-off, one I think Kemp would probably win.
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Postby San Lumen » Wed Oct 31, 2018 11:09 am

Soldati Senza Confini wrote:
Valrifell wrote:
It hasn't yet. And I sincerely doubt theres a large enough polling error for O'Rourke to pull out a win. I do have a sneaking suspicion the margin will be five points or less, though, in spite of recent polls saying a 9-10 point difference.


I mean, he is widely popular in liberal college towns, tho that's mostly College Station, San Marcos, and a few others. Which in terms of voting population is not a lot.

Big cities like Dallas, Fort Worth, Houston, and El Paso is more split.

Isn;t Austin and El Paso overwhelmingly Democratic?

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Postby San Lumen » Wed Oct 31, 2018 11:11 am

Great Franconia and Verana wrote:So what do we think about the Senate race in Florida, and the Governors races in Ohio and Georgia?

Looking at the recent polling, Nelson seems to have solidified a decent lead (2-3%) over Scott.
Cordray is winning in most polls I have seen by some decent numbers.
Abrams and Kemp look nearly tied. That would be interesting if neither reaches 50%, as that would then necessitate a run-off, one I think Kemp would probably win.


In addition to Nelson, Gillum looks to be holding a solid lead as well. If he wins I cannot see Nelson losing.

Plus regarding Ohio it is looking like a decent possibility Democrats win every statewide office which would be huge.

In a run off in Georgia I wouldn't be so sure of that.

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Postby Great Franconia and Verana » Wed Oct 31, 2018 11:16 am

San Lumen wrote:
Great Franconia and Verana wrote:So what do we think about the Senate race in Florida, and the Governors races in Ohio and Georgia?

Looking at the recent polling, Nelson seems to have solidified a decent lead (2-3%) over Scott.
Cordray is winning in most polls I have seen by some decent numbers.
Abrams and Kemp look nearly tied. That would be interesting if neither reaches 50%, as that would then necessitate a run-off, one I think Kemp would probably win.


In addition to Nelson, Gillum looks to be holding a solid lead as well. If he wins I cannot see Nelson losing.

Plus regarding Ohio it is looking like a decent possibility Democrats win every statewide office which would be huge.

In a run off in Georgia I wouldn't be so sure of that.


If neither win outright, the runoff would come down to the ~3% of voters who voted for neither candidate, and the ability of each campaign to turn out the vote of their core supporters a second time.

I doubt many Metz groupies will be thrilled with either, but I can see more breaking for Kemp than Abrams.
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Postby Soldati Senza Confini » Wed Oct 31, 2018 11:16 am

San Lumen wrote:
Soldati Senza Confini wrote:
I mean, he is widely popular in liberal college towns, tho that's mostly College Station, San Marcos, and a few others. Which in terms of voting population is not a lot.

Big cities like Dallas, Fort Worth, Houston, and El Paso is more split.

Isn;t Austin and El Paso overwhelmingly Democratic?


Not really, they are more or less like Dallas in that it tips Democrat, but it's not overwhelmingly tilted to vote Democrat yet.

Tho Austin is starting to lean that way, it's not so yet.
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Tekania wrote:Welcome to NSG, where informed opinions get to bump-heads with ignorant ideology under the pretense of an equal footing.

"When it’s a choice of putting food on the table, or thinking about your morals, it’s easier to say you’d think about your morals, but only if you’ve never faced that decision." - Anastasia Richardson

Current Goal: Flesh out nation factbook.

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Postby Thuzbekistan » Wed Oct 31, 2018 11:28 am

Yay! New thread :)

In relevant news, marsha blackburn has gained 5 points in TN. Hopefully, Bredesen gets back in the game come election day.
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Postby Post War America » Wed Oct 31, 2018 11:35 am

Thuzbekistan wrote:Yay! New thread :)

In relevant news, marsha blackburn has gained 5 points in TN. Hopefully, Bredesen gets back in the game come election day.


I doubt it'll happen in the current political climate. Its a shame though given that Bredesen wasn't terrible for a Red State Democrat.
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