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America's Uncertain Future

For discussion and debate about anything. (Not a roleplay related forum; out-of-character commentary only.)

Can America survive the next 25 years?

Yes, don't be too discouraged on what's going on now.
75
31%
Yes, but I think there's a chance of things going downhill.
76
32%
It could go either way.
40
17%
No, the negative tension is too strong.
10
4%
No, and I'm looking forward to it!
34
14%
Other(please specify)
4
2%
 
Total votes : 239

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Shrillland
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America's Uncertain Future

Postby Shrillland » Thu Oct 11, 2018 11:28 pm

A recent editorial in the Guardian made by the University of North Carolina-Chapel Hill's Marc Hetherington and Jonathan Weiler basically confirmed what many of us believed but, deep down, didn't want to see confirmed: https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/oct/06/democrats-republicans-kavanaugh-polarization

In it, these two professors manage to show two things: First, that what someone on anyone's given side does in terms of bad things(such as corruption or even sexual harassment) ultimately doesn't matter to that side because we've so polarised in the US that even bad people who share our ideology are better than good people who oppose it. This is because that ideology is no longer seen as a different view but an existential threat to the nation. Second, it shows that, for the first time since opinion polls were created, a person's worldview and parenting decisions shape their politics. In short, nobody merely disagrees anymore, they genuinely hate each other.

Earlier this year, a sizable number of people said in a Rasmussen/USA Today poll said that this extreme animosity could explode into a second Civil War: http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/general_politics/june_2018/31_think_u_s_civil_war_likely_soon

The numbers are fairly even for all sides, 37% of Democrats, 32% of Republicans, and 26% of others think that the current administration's policies and actions could lead to violent responses from their opponents. This doesn't take into account the possibility that supporters of the administration could start physical assaults on opponents.

Now, before I end up making this a blog, the question I have to ask you, good NSG, is simple: Are you among those or not? Do you think that the situation is so intense that the USA could devolve into ideological conflict in the near future?

Me personally? I think there's a nonzero possibility that that could happen within the next 10 years at worst. Even with Trump out of the picture in 2021(as may happen), the underlying problems are still there for this nation to implode. And it won't be like the First War where states secede, it'll be more like modern civil wars, much messier with only general ideas of who would run what.
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Washington Resistance Army
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Postby Washington Resistance Army » Thu Oct 11, 2018 11:43 pm

We've already reached the point of open ideological conflict. Left and right wingers regularly engage in street battles of various magnitudes already and people are only becoming more serious about that (see people starting to organize into groups for that exact purpose and it starting to become deadly for more details), and even the people who don't directly engage openly support one side or the other for the most part. This also bleeds into attacks on government officials, see the Congressional Baseball shooting and such things.

Unless something massive changes quickly (say the sudden rise of a very real external enemy for us to focus on) the republic is a dying beast. We're no longer countrymen, in the eyes of the other side you're the embodiment of everything wrong with the world and need to be both fought and prevented from ever gaining any sort of power. No matter who wins in 2020 they aren't going to unite the nation and the other side is only going to become more pissed off and determined to stop the winner and things are only going to get worse.
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Western Vale Confederacy
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Postby Western Vale Confederacy » Thu Oct 11, 2018 11:49 pm

Washington Resistance Army wrote:We've already reached the point of open ideological conflict. Left and right wingers regularly engage in street battles of various magnitudes already and people are only becoming more serious about that (see people starting to organize into groups for that exact purpose and it starting to become deadly for more details), and even the people who don't directly engage openly support one side or the other for the most part. This also bleeds into attacks on government officials, see the Congressional Baseball shooting and such things.

Unless something massive changes quickly (say the sudden rise of a very real external enemy for us to focus on) the republic is a dying beast. We're no longer countrymen, in the eyes of the other side you're the embodiment of everything wrong with the world and need to be both fought and prevented from ever gaining any sort of power. No matter who wins in 2020 they aren't going to unite the nation and the other side is only going to become more pissed off and determined to stop the winner and things are only going to get worse.


This in a nutshell.

It has actually gotten to the point where the left and right are beginning to form organized groups who openly advocate for violence, and the mere fact that politicians are actually being harassed (and worse, shot at) is but an early taste of the inevitable civil conflict.

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Lakarta
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Psychotic Dictatorship

Postby Lakarta » Thu Oct 11, 2018 11:49 pm

Personally, I believe the tensions will result in a 2nd Civil War. The only way to prevent this (at least for me) is to re-make the entire American Administration, Judicial, and Legislative wings, which I doubt would ever happen. Simply put, the U.S.A. will not survive the next few years, and if it does, it will be at the cost of the lower and middle class.

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Mystic Warriors
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Postby Mystic Warriors » Thu Oct 11, 2018 11:52 pm

Washington Resistance Army wrote:We've already reached the point of open ideological conflict. Left and right wingers regularly engage in street battles of various magnitudes already and people are only becoming more serious about that (see people starting to organize into groups for that exact purpose and it starting to become deadly for more details), and even the people who don't directly engage openly support one side or the other for the most part. This also bleeds into attacks on government officials, see the Congressional Baseball shooting and such things.

Unless something massive changes quickly (say the sudden rise of a very real external enemy for us to focus on) the republic is a dying beast. We're no longer countrymen, in the eyes of the other side you're the embodiment of everything wrong with the world and need to be both fought and prevented from ever gaining any sort of power. No matter who wins in 2020 they aren't going to unite the nation and the other side is only going to become more pissed off and determined to stop the winner and things are only going to get worse.




I agree. The left and right can no longer coexist anymore. Dont forget the unite the right rally.
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Lakarta
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Psychotic Dictatorship

Postby Lakarta » Thu Oct 11, 2018 11:54 pm

Mystic Warriors wrote:
Washington Resistance Army wrote:We've already reached the point of open ideological conflict. Left and right wingers regularly engage in street battles of various magnitudes already and people are only becoming more serious about that (see people starting to organize into groups for that exact purpose and it starting to become deadly for more details), and even the people who don't directly engage openly support one side or the other for the most part. This also bleeds into attacks on government officials, see the Congressional Baseball shooting and such things.

Unless something massive changes quickly (say the sudden rise of a very real external enemy for us to focus on) the republic is a dying beast. We're no longer countrymen, in the eyes of the other side you're the embodiment of everything wrong with the world and need to be both fought and prevented from ever gaining any sort of power. No matter who wins in 2020 they aren't going to unite the nation and the other side is only going to become more pissed off and determined to stop the winner and things are only going to get worse.




I agree. The left and right can no longer coexist anymore. Dont forget the unite the right rally.

I also agree. I believe a potential solution would be to abolish political parties, and have individual people believe in different ideas, though this would most likely only be a temporary solution as people would just form their political parties unofficially.

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Russiyskaya Respublica
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Postby Russiyskaya Respublica » Thu Oct 11, 2018 11:55 pm

My honest opinion? The instability isn't great enough to cause a civil war proper, some clashing sure, but not a civil war.
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Western Vale Confederacy
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Postby Western Vale Confederacy » Thu Oct 11, 2018 11:56 pm

Mystic Warriors wrote:
Washington Resistance Army wrote:We've already reached the point of open ideological conflict. Left and right wingers regularly engage in street battles of various magnitudes already and people are only becoming more serious about that (see people starting to organize into groups for that exact purpose and it starting to become deadly for more details), and even the people who don't directly engage openly support one side or the other for the most part. This also bleeds into attacks on government officials, see the Congressional Baseball shooting and such things.

Unless something massive changes quickly (say the sudden rise of a very real external enemy for us to focus on) the republic is a dying beast. We're no longer countrymen, in the eyes of the other side you're the embodiment of everything wrong with the world and need to be both fought and prevented from ever gaining any sort of power. No matter who wins in 2020 they aren't going to unite the nation and the other side is only going to become more pissed off and determined to stop the winner and things are only going to get worse.




I agree. The left and right can no longer coexist anymore. Dont forget the unite the right rally.


The left and right has discarded any pretense of cooperation the past few months, and are already throwing themselves at eachother's throats.

Luckily, it is still disorganized and mob-like, but frankly, if this trend continues, they'll start forming actual armed groups.

At this point, it's a gigantic powder keg waiting for a catalyst. A prominent politician being shot, a riot escalating into full-blown street warfare, or even something as simple as the partisans not accepting the results of the elections.

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Mystic Warriors
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Postby Mystic Warriors » Thu Oct 11, 2018 11:58 pm

Western Vale Confederacy wrote:
Mystic Warriors wrote:


I agree. The left and right can no longer coexist anymore. Dont forget the unite the right rally.


The left and right has discarded any pretense of cooperation the past few months, and are already throwing themselves at eachother's throats.

Luckily, it is still disorganized and mob-like, but frankly, if this trend continues, they'll start forming actual armed groups.

At this point, it's a gigantic powder keg waiting for a catalyst. A prominent politician being shot, a riot escalating into full-blown street warfare, or even something as simple as the partisans not accepting the results of the elections.



The partisans part could have happened. Trump said during the election that if he lost he wouldn't go away.
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Social Libertarian/Authoritarian: -6.77


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Lakarta
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Psychotic Dictatorship

Postby Lakarta » Thu Oct 11, 2018 11:58 pm

.
Last edited by Lakarta on Fri Oct 12, 2018 12:00 am, edited 1 time in total.

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Lakarta
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Psychotic Dictatorship

Postby Lakarta » Thu Oct 11, 2018 11:59 pm

Western Vale Confederacy wrote:
Mystic Warriors wrote:


I agree. The left and right can no longer coexist anymore. Dont forget the unite the right rally.

The Civil War did start because the South did not like the President Elect. So, hypothetically, something similar could happen today. And with nuclear weapons and new types of warfare, the results would be devastating, most likely crippling the American population, military, and economy.

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Washington Resistance Army
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Postby Washington Resistance Army » Thu Oct 11, 2018 11:59 pm

Mystic Warriors wrote:
Western Vale Confederacy wrote:
The left and right has discarded any pretense of cooperation the past few months, and are already throwing themselves at eachother's throats.

Luckily, it is still disorganized and mob-like, but frankly, if this trend continues, they'll start forming actual armed groups.

At this point, it's a gigantic powder keg waiting for a catalyst. A prominent politician being shot, a riot escalating into full-blown street warfare, or even something as simple as the partisans not accepting the results of the elections.



The partisans part could have happened. Trump said during the election that if he lost he wouldn't go away.


The partisan part did happen. It doesn't take long to find people on the left who legitimately believe the "Not My President!" bullshit and think his entire administration is illegally in place.
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Western Vale Confederacy
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Postby Western Vale Confederacy » Fri Oct 12, 2018 12:04 am

Washington Resistance Army wrote:
Mystic Warriors wrote:

The partisans part could have happened. Trump said during the election that if he lost he wouldn't go away.


The partisan part did happen. It doesn't take long to find people on the left who legitimately believe the "Not My President!" bullshit and think his entire administration is illegally in place.


Considering that there are leftist partisans that genuinely believe that Trump is illegitimate, a Russian puppet, or unfit for leadership, and rightist partisans who believe that the Democratic Party has become the new enemy of America and the embodiment of communist evil...

It's a terrifyingly plausible scenario.

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Frievolk
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Postby Frievolk » Fri Oct 12, 2018 12:05 am

It's very very possible for a civil conflict in the near future to happen. I'm not sure what the level of this conflict would be (Depending on what blows the aforementioned powder keg, it could be anywhere from a normal street fighting (a la Weimar Republic politics where people beat each other with sticks) to legit open warfare the likes of which the US has never seen.)
For America, it will definitely mean instability of a high degree, a dramatic drop in safety, population, and destruction of property and environment, and that's if nukes don't get involved.
I wonder what it'll mean for the world, though.
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Right wing humour squad
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Postby Right wing humour squad » Fri Oct 12, 2018 12:06 am

Eh there’s always been fighting between whoever.
It’s just become fashionable and mixed into politics.
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New Trasivolia
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Postby New Trasivolia » Fri Oct 12, 2018 12:07 am

Especially with Trump's trade war with China, our economy (or at last the working class) will take a big hit. He's doing that for no reason, worsening our relations with the East! If Trump doesn't end us, a worsened economy due to Trumps insane tariffs will.
Last edited by New Trasivolia on Fri Oct 12, 2018 12:08 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Mystic Warriors
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Postby Mystic Warriors » Fri Oct 12, 2018 12:07 am

Washington Resistance Army wrote:
Mystic Warriors wrote:

The partisans part could have happened. Trump said during the election that if he lost he wouldn't go away.


The partisan part did happen. It doesn't take long to find people on the left who legitimately believe the "Not My President!" bullshit and think his entire administration is illegally in place.



Not to the extent he was saying.
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Western Vale Confederacy
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Postby Western Vale Confederacy » Fri Oct 12, 2018 12:08 am

Frievolk wrote:It's very very possible for a civil conflict in the near future to happen. I'm not sure what the level of this conflict would be (Depending on what blows the aforementioned powder keg, it could be anywhere from a normal street fighting (a la Weimar Republic politics where people beat each other with sticks) to legit open warfare the likes of which the US has never seen.)
For America, it will definitely mean instability of a high degree, a dramatic drop in safety, population, and destruction of property and environment, and that's if nukes don't get involved.
I wonder what it'll mean for the world, though.


Canada (i.e. my current country of residence) is effectively going to be dragged directly into a hypothetical American civil war because of the inevitability of spillovers of violence across our enormous border, the loss of their largest and nearest trading partner, and a potential intervention if it gets out of control.

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Shrillland
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Postby Shrillland » Fri Oct 12, 2018 12:10 am

Western Vale Confederacy wrote:
Frievolk wrote:It's very very possible for a civil conflict in the near future to happen. I'm not sure what the level of this conflict would be (Depending on what blows the aforementioned powder keg, it could be anywhere from a normal street fighting (a la Weimar Republic politics where people beat each other with sticks) to legit open warfare the likes of which the US has never seen.)
For America, it will definitely mean instability of a high degree, a dramatic drop in safety, population, and destruction of property and environment, and that's if nukes don't get involved.
I wonder what it'll mean for the world, though.


Canada (i.e. my current country of residence) is effectively going to be dragged directly into a hypothetical American civil war because of the inevitability of spillovers of violence across our enormous border, the loss of their largest and nearest trading partner, and a potential intervention if it gets out of control.


Yeah, that's one of the things that I meant when I likened it to the Russian Civil War, a multi-level conflict of ideologies, states like Texas and California potentially breaking off of the sinking ship, and nations from around the world launching interventions and incidentally wanting a piece of the now unguarded American pie.
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Dooom35796821595
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Postby Dooom35796821595 » Fri Oct 12, 2018 12:11 am

Shrillland wrote:
Western Vale Confederacy wrote:
Canada (i.e. my current country of residence) is effectively going to be dragged directly into a hypothetical American civil war because of the inevitability of spillovers of violence across our enormous border, the loss of their largest and nearest trading partner, and a potential intervention if it gets out of control.


Yeah, that's one of the things that I meant when I likened it to the Russian Civil War, a multi-level conflict of ideologies, states like Texas and California potentially breaking off of the sinking ship, and nations from around the world launching interventions and incidentally wanting a piece of the now unguarded American pie.


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Frievolk
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Postby Frievolk » Fri Oct 12, 2018 12:12 am

Western Vale Confederacy wrote:
Frievolk wrote:It's very very possible for a civil conflict in the near future to happen. I'm not sure what the level of this conflict would be (Depending on what blows the aforementioned powder keg, it could be anywhere from a normal street fighting (a la Weimar Republic politics where people beat each other with sticks) to legit open warfare the likes of which the US has never seen.)
For America, it will definitely mean instability of a high degree, a dramatic drop in safety, population, and destruction of property and environment, and that's if nukes don't get involved.
I wonder what it'll mean for the world, though.


Canada (i.e. my current country of residence) is effectively going to be dragged directly into a hypothetical American civil war because of the inevitability of spillovers of violence across our enormous border, the loss of their largest and nearest trading partner, and a potential intervention if it gets out of control.
Frankly, the only reason the US has survived this long is because of its rather inefficient neighbors both North and South.
Canada and Mexico (and you can bet your ass Mexico will get dragged into the affairs, possibly even quicker than Canada, and for very very different reasons) both lack the military, economic, or political capabilities to deal with an American Warzone. The American Continent (and I do mean the entire continent, not just north) might be dragged into something very bloody.
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New Trasivolia
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Postby New Trasivolia » Fri Oct 12, 2018 12:12 am

Shrillland wrote:
Western Vale Confederacy wrote:
Canada (i.e. my current country of residence) is effectively going to be dragged directly into a hypothetical American civil war because of the inevitability of spillovers of violence across our enormous border, the loss of their largest and nearest trading partner, and a potential intervention if it gets out of control.


Yeah, that's one of the things that I meant when I likened it to the Russian Civil War, a multi-level conflict of ideologies, states like Texas and California potentially breaking off of the sinking ship, and nations from around the world launching interventions and incidentally wanting a piece of the now unguarded American pie.

Due to the fact that America is a world superpower, this could potentially cause World War Three, if conflict erupts. The safest course of action would be to impeach Trump and Pent (because he's pretty bad too). I don't care if its through vote or coup d'etat, but Trump-Pence needs to go!
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Washington Resistance Army
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Postby Washington Resistance Army » Fri Oct 12, 2018 12:14 am

New Trasivolia wrote:
Shrillland wrote:
Yeah, that's one of the things that I meant when I likened it to the Russian Civil War, a multi-level conflict of ideologies, states like Texas and California potentially breaking off of the sinking ship, and nations from around the world launching interventions and incidentally wanting a piece of the now unguarded American pie.

Due to the fact that America is a world superpower, this could potentially cause World War Three, if conflict erupts. The safest course of action would be to impeach Trump and Pent (because he's pretty bad too). I don't care if its through vote or coup d'etat, but Trump-Pence needs to go!


That would cause even more violence.
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Western Vale Confederacy
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Postby Western Vale Confederacy » Fri Oct 12, 2018 12:14 am

New Trasivolia wrote:
Shrillland wrote:
Yeah, that's one of the things that I meant when I likened it to the Russian Civil War, a multi-level conflict of ideologies, states like Texas and California potentially breaking off of the sinking ship, and nations from around the world launching interventions and incidentally wanting a piece of the now unguarded American pie.

Due to the fact that America is a world superpower, this could potentially cause World War Three, if conflict erupts. The safest course of action would be to impeach Trump and Pent (because he's pretty bad too). I don't care if its through vote or coup d'etat, but Trump-Pence needs to go!


A coup against Trump is an instant civil war ignition because the Republicans would rise up, not an excellent solution at all.

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Balack
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Democratic Socialists

Postby Balack » Fri Oct 12, 2018 12:15 am

New Trasivolia wrote:
Shrillland wrote:
Yeah, that's one of the things that I meant when I likened it to the Russian Civil War, a multi-level conflict of ideologies, states like Texas and California potentially breaking off of the sinking ship, and nations from around the world launching interventions and incidentally wanting a piece of the now unguarded American pie.

Due to the fact that America is a world superpower, this could potentially cause World War Three, if conflict erupts. The safest course of action would be to impeach Trump and Pent (because he's pretty bad too). I don't care if its through vote or coup d'etat, but Trump-Pence needs to go!


That is exactly what will ignite the Next Civil War.

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