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US Midterm Election Megathread II: Progressives D-Day

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Morgantown West Virginia
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Founded: Apr 02, 2016
Inoffensive Centrist Democracy

US Midterm Election Megathread II: Progressives D-Day

Postby Morgantown West Virginia » Mon Jul 16, 2018 1:13 pm

I know, I know already another election year in the United States, but the midterms this time around are probably the most important in a long time. So, we here on NS are going to talk about it. With the tide turning against the GOP (supposedly) can the Dems win back the House and the Senate this time.

As the maker of this (and hopefully future megathreads) regarding the 2018 midterms!
Here are the competitive House races, according to Inside Elections as of July 6, 2018:

Likely Democratic
MN-7
NV-4
PA-5 (flip from R)
PA-6 (flip from R)
Lean Democratic
FL-27 (flip from R)
FL-7
PA-8 (from Likely Dem)

Tilt Democratic
AZ-1
AZ-2 (flip from R)
NH-1
NJ-11 (flip from R)
NJ-2 (flip from R)
NV-3
PA-7 (flip from R)

Tossup
CA-39
CA-49
IA-1
MI-11
MN-1
MN-2
MN-8
PA-17
TX-23
VA-10
WA-8

Tilt Republican
CA-10
CA-25
CA-48
CO-6
FL-26
IL-6
NC-9
NE-2
NJ-7
NY-19
NY-22
OH-12
PA-1
TX-7

Lean Republican
CA-45
IL-12
KS-2
KS-3
KY-6
ME-2
MI-8
MN-3
NJ-7
UT-4
VA-7
WI-1

Likely Republican
AR-2
AZ-8
CA-21
CA-4
CA-50
GA-6
GA-7
IA-3
IL-13
IN-2
MI-6
MI-7
MT- At-Large
NC-13
NJ-3
NY-11
NY-24
OH-1
OH-14
PA-10
TX-21
TX-32
VA-2
VA-5
WA-5
WV-3

Here is the state of the Senate races from Inside Elections as of July 6,2018
Safe Democratic:
CA
CT
DE
HI
MA
MD
ME
MI
MN
NJ
NM]
NY
RI
VA
VT
WA

Likely Democratic
MN Special Election
OH (from lean Democratic)
WI (from lean Democratic)
PA

Lean Democratic
WI (moved from lean Democratic)
Tilt Democratic
MT
WV (moved from tossup)

Tossup
AZ
FL
IN
MO
NV

Tilt Republican
ND (flip from Dem)

Lean Republican
TN

Likely Republican
TX

Safe Republican
MS
MS Special Election
NE
WY
UT
Last edited by Morgantown West Virginia on Tue Aug 14, 2018 5:42 pm, edited 5 times in total.

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Likar
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Posts: 525
Founded: Jun 03, 2017
Inoffensive Centrist Democracy

Postby Likar » Mon Jul 16, 2018 1:14 pm

First!
A 15 civilization, according to this index.

LOVEWHOYOUARE~

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Freezic Vast
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Posts: 1889
Founded: Jul 30, 2017
Inoffensive Centrist Democracy

Postby Freezic Vast » Mon Jul 16, 2018 1:15 pm

Still missing PA and a couple other mistakes...
19, Independent, agnostic Catholic, Bi male, unabashed Yankee from Pennsylvania. Top 40 music fan, Fav song of the week: I Like It- Cardi B/Bad Bunny/J Balvin. Fiscal conservatism and social liberalism go hand-in-hand, both sides need to meet in the middle. The far left/far right don't deserve acceptance. #GoYanks
Political Compass:
Economic Left/Right: 3.38
Social Libertarian/Authoritarian: 1.18
Pro: Capitalism, Libertarianism, Monarchies, Democracy, LGB Rights, Catholicism, Electoral Reform, 1st/2nd Amendments, Conservatives, America, Britain, Italy, Poland.
Neutral: Abortion, Ireland, Canada, Transgenderism.
Anti: Communism, Socialism, SJWs, Extremism in any form, Anarchy, New Wave Feminism, Environmentalism, Slavery, Government Interference, Terrorism, Liberals, EU.

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The South Falls
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Posts: 4997
Founded: Oct 18, 2017
Civil Rights Lovefest

Postby The South Falls » Mon Jul 16, 2018 1:15 pm

Hey, Farn made another one of those, and you should send her your OP to paste into her version.
This is an MT or PMT nation that reflects some of my beliefs, trade deals and debate always welcome! Call me TeaSF. A level 8, according to This Index.
Satsuki is in fact the edgiest I could get without breaking site rules.
You have seen a wild South Fallus Fallusi Texaso nativa. Your Friendly Neighborhood Black Kid. Social Democrat,
Weird. Eats Tea, Texas and Social Democracy. Expect 1/10 posts to make no sense. Also, It sometimes breaks rules. Sorry!

I make dumb jokes. I'm really serious about that. Yes, we're pretty much a different Australia.

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Farnhamia
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Posts: 95175
Founded: Jun 20, 2006
Democratic Socialists

Postby Farnhamia » Mon Jul 16, 2018 1:16 pm

The South Falls wrote:Hey, Farn made another one of those, and you should send her your OP to paste into her version.

No, Morgantown should do this. My thread is locked.
Freedom ... or cake. ~ Ashmoria (RIP)
Make Earth Great Again: Stop Continental Drift!
And Jesus was a sailor when he walked upon the water ...
"Make yourself at home, Frank. Hit somebody." RIP Don Rickles
My country, right or wrong; if right, to be kept right; and if wrong, to be set right. ~ Carl Schurz
<Sigh> NSG...where even the atheists are Augustinians. ~ The Archregimancy
Now the foot is on the other hand ~ Kannap
RIP Dyakovo| In support of Arch

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Farnhamia
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Posts: 95175
Founded: Jun 20, 2006
Democratic Socialists

Postby Farnhamia » Mon Jul 16, 2018 1:16 pm

Likar wrote:First!

Don't spam. This isn't a chat thread.
Freedom ... or cake. ~ Ashmoria (RIP)
Make Earth Great Again: Stop Continental Drift!
And Jesus was a sailor when he walked upon the water ...
"Make yourself at home, Frank. Hit somebody." RIP Don Rickles
My country, right or wrong; if right, to be kept right; and if wrong, to be set right. ~ Carl Schurz
<Sigh> NSG...where even the atheists are Augustinians. ~ The Archregimancy
Now the foot is on the other hand ~ Kannap
RIP Dyakovo| In support of Arch

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Freezic Vast
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Posts: 1889
Founded: Jul 30, 2017
Inoffensive Centrist Democracy

Postby Freezic Vast » Mon Jul 16, 2018 1:19 pm

Farnhamia wrote:
The South Falls wrote:Hey, Farn made another one of those, and you should send her your OP to paste into her version.

No, Morgantown should do this. My thread is locked.

Which is ironic since he made the 2nd megathread 15 pages before the first got 500 pages, (Which it will now remain stuck at 499 forever) that one got locked, thne you made another one, locked that because Morgantown should do and so.... third time's the charm I guess???

But anyway, I digress.
19, Independent, agnostic Catholic, Bi male, unabashed Yankee from Pennsylvania. Top 40 music fan, Fav song of the week: I Like It- Cardi B/Bad Bunny/J Balvin. Fiscal conservatism and social liberalism go hand-in-hand, both sides need to meet in the middle. The far left/far right don't deserve acceptance. #GoYanks
Political Compass:
Economic Left/Right: 3.38
Social Libertarian/Authoritarian: 1.18
Pro: Capitalism, Libertarianism, Monarchies, Democracy, LGB Rights, Catholicism, Electoral Reform, 1st/2nd Amendments, Conservatives, America, Britain, Italy, Poland.
Neutral: Abortion, Ireland, Canada, Transgenderism.
Anti: Communism, Socialism, SJWs, Extremism in any form, Anarchy, New Wave Feminism, Environmentalism, Slavery, Government Interference, Terrorism, Liberals, EU.

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The South Falls
Senator
 
Posts: 4997
Founded: Oct 18, 2017
Civil Rights Lovefest

Postby The South Falls » Mon Jul 16, 2018 1:21 pm

Farnhamia wrote:
The South Falls wrote:Hey, Farn made another one of those, and you should send her your OP to paste into her version.

No, Morgantown should do this. My thread is locked.

Alright. Cool.


Who's ready for some ALABAMAAAAA?!
This is an MT or PMT nation that reflects some of my beliefs, trade deals and debate always welcome! Call me TeaSF. A level 8, according to This Index.
Satsuki is in fact the edgiest I could get without breaking site rules.
You have seen a wild South Fallus Fallusi Texaso nativa. Your Friendly Neighborhood Black Kid. Social Democrat,
Weird. Eats Tea, Texas and Social Democracy. Expect 1/10 posts to make no sense. Also, It sometimes breaks rules. Sorry!

I make dumb jokes. I'm really serious about that. Yes, we're pretty much a different Australia.

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San Lumen
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Posts: 17589
Founded: Jul 02, 2009
Civil Rights Lovefest

Postby San Lumen » Mon Jul 16, 2018 1:25 pm

The South Falls wrote:
Farnhamia wrote:No, Morgantown should do this. My thread is locked.

Alright. Cool.


Who's ready for some ALABAMAAAAA?!

Alabama already had their primaries we dont have any more until next month,
Last edited by San Lumen on Mon Jul 16, 2018 1:25 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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The South Falls
Senator
 
Posts: 4997
Founded: Oct 18, 2017
Civil Rights Lovefest

Postby The South Falls » Mon Jul 16, 2018 1:26 pm

San Lumen wrote:
The South Falls wrote:Alright. Cool.


Who's ready for some ALABAMAAAAA?!

Alabama already had their primaries we dont have any more until next month,

Dammit, I was about to bring out my signs and marching boots.
This is an MT or PMT nation that reflects some of my beliefs, trade deals and debate always welcome! Call me TeaSF. A level 8, according to This Index.
Satsuki is in fact the edgiest I could get without breaking site rules.
You have seen a wild South Fallus Fallusi Texaso nativa. Your Friendly Neighborhood Black Kid. Social Democrat,
Weird. Eats Tea, Texas and Social Democracy. Expect 1/10 posts to make no sense. Also, It sometimes breaks rules. Sorry!

I make dumb jokes. I'm really serious about that. Yes, we're pretty much a different Australia.

User avatar
San Lumen
Post Marshal
 
Posts: 17589
Founded: Jul 02, 2009
Civil Rights Lovefest

Postby San Lumen » Mon Jul 16, 2018 1:34 pm

The South Falls wrote:
San Lumen wrote:Alabama already had their primaries we dont have any more until next month,

Dammit, I was about to bring out my signs and marching boots.

Sorry sir. The elections in Alabama probably aren't going to be very exciting. I fully expect Kay Ivey to win a full term and for Republicans to win every statewide office. They will probably lose some seats in the state legislature but not very many.

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Morgantown West Virginia
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Posts: 448
Founded: Apr 02, 2016
Inoffensive Centrist Democracy

Postby Morgantown West Virginia » Mon Jul 16, 2018 1:45 pm

Freezic Vast wrote:
Farnhamia wrote:No, Morgantown should do this. My thread is locked.

Which is ironic since he made the 2nd megathread 15 pages before the first got 500 pages, (Which it will now remain stuck at 499 forever) that one got locked, thne you made another one, locked that because Morgantown should do and so.... third time's the charm I guess???

But anyway, I digress.


Yes, third time is a charm.

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Shrillland
Negotiator
 
Posts: 7170
Founded: Apr 12, 2010
Left-wing Utopia

Postby Shrillland » Mon Jul 16, 2018 1:51 pm

San Lumen wrote:
The South Falls wrote:Alright. Cool.


Who's ready for some ALABAMAAAAA?!

Alabama already had their primaries we dont have any more until next month,


Actually, they have the runoff tomorrow to see if Roby keeps her seat. Plus the Georgia runoffs next week have some interest.
Last edited by Shrillland on Mon Jul 16, 2018 3:20 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Shrillland
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Posts: 7170
Founded: Apr 12, 2010
Left-wing Utopia

Plebiscite Plaza: The People's voice at it's Worst(Part 1)

Postby Shrillland » Mon Jul 16, 2018 1:57 pm

Hopefully, this thread won't be locked. ;)

Anyway, here's my take on the major ballot initiatives across America come November with poll updates as they come in:

Alabama has four constitutional amendments coming up. Amendment 1 would authorise the placing of the Ten Commandments on public property including courthouses and schools. This was spearheaded by Dean Young, a former chief strategist for former justice and perennial pervert Roy Moore and received overwhelming support in the legislature. It may pass, but I don't know if SCOTUS will let it stay, even with the changes ahead.

Amendment 2 is perhaps most significant considering the recent SCOTUS changes, an amendment that "acknowledges, declares, and affirms that it is the public policy of this state to recognize and support the sanctity of unborn life and the rights of unborn children, including the right to life." It would also ensure protection of the unborn. In short, it would effectively ban abortion if Roe V. Wade or Planned Parenthood V. Casey were to be overturned. Sadly, I can't find good poll numbers here(for now), but I do think it'll be rejected. It will, however, be close in the new atmosphere.

Amendment 3 is a relatively small matter involving changing the makeup of the University of Alabama board of trustees. It'll also pass

Amendment 4 would do away with some state byelections. If a seat in either house becomes vacant after October 1 of the year before the election(Alabama Reps and Senators are elected for four years), then it will stay vacant until the new term under the amendment. It will also allow the Secretary of State to co-opt a vacant seat if only one person runs in that particular byelection. This one I think could pass though some voters might be turned off of the idea of having no representation for over a year.


Alaska just has Ballot Measure 1, a measure that would impose new protections and require new permits for any projects that could potentially affect salmon habitats. Currently, permits are required for logging, excavating, or hydraulics over most bodies of water, but this would create clearer definitions for what could and couldn't be protected or allowed. Knowing Alaska, I'm not convinced it'll pass. Salmon may be king, but oil is emperor over all.


There are four initiatives up. First, we have Prop 126, which would amend the constitution to forbid the state or local governments from either levying new taxes on any kinds of services or raising existing ones. Effectively, it would ban raising or levying sales or excise taxes for those services. I'm not convinced this will pass as of yet.

Next, we have Prop 305, which will decide whether or not SB1431 is upheld. SB 1431 is a law expand the current Empowerment Scholarship Accounts(or ESAs) programme to all public school students. ESAs are effectively a type of voucher where the state pays up to 90% of what the state would've paid for the student at a public school. Unlike traditional vouchers, the state pays the parents directly rather than earmarking funds for private or religious schools. Currently, ESAs are reserved for kids with disabilities, and SB 1431 would expand the programme to cover everyone over a period of six years. The issue is so clouded by the "only technically a voucher" thing that I think Prop 305 will narrowly pass, meaning the law will likely be upheld by the people. A June poll shows that it's a three-way dead heat.

Next, we have a constitutional amendment that affects the pensions of elected officials and prison guards. First it would cap COL(cost-of-living) adjustments for both groups at 2% annually rather than the 4% it's at now. More significantly, it requires prison guards and other corrections employees hired after July 1 of this year to enroll in a new 401(k) rather than the state pension plan that employees already have. Personally, I think that having people, who risk their lives daily to keep us safe, bucked off of a secure pension onto a shaky 401(k) is an insult...but that's just me. I actually think this one could go down.

Finally, we have a law that would prohibit candidates for office from spending public funds on political parties or tax-exempt 501(a) firms that could influence elections. It would also subordinate Arizona's Citizens Clean Election Commission(CCEC) to the Governor's Regulatory Review Council, effectively politicising what rules the CCEC implements. I can see people being in favour of the former, but with the growing blue tide in Arizona, this one could be defeated.


Three to look at here. Issue 1 is a constitutional amendment that would cap attorney's fees, limit punitive and non-economic damages, and allow the legislature to change or repeal rules that the state Supreme Court has issued. Knowing how many people are opposed to frivolous lawsuits and excessive awards, I can see this one potentially passing despite a court challenge that says it's four different changes rolled into one.

Issue 2 would also amend the constitution to include a photo ID requirement at the polls. This one I definitely see passing.

Issue 3 would amend the constitution to impose term-limits on state representatives and senators elected after 1993. Representatives could only be elected for up to three two-year terms while senators could be elected for up to two four-year terms. No one could serve in the legislature for more than 10 years altogether. I think this one will pass.


Ah, the state that's practically synonymous with the word "proposition" has 12 of them on the ballot so far. Here are the big ones.

Props 1-4 are all bond measures for different things.

Prop 5 would expand the state's current property tax transference programme by allowing it for higher valued properties(currently, it's only allowed for properties of equal or lesser value), expanding the offer to the severely disabled of any age(only for those over age 55 currently)and allowing it for an unlimited number of moves within the state(currently, it's only allowed once in a lifetime). I think that this one will likely pass.

Prop 6 would repeal the RRAA 2017(Road Repair and Accountability Act 2017), and it would require voter approval via future propositions to impose or raise vehicle fees and fuel taxes. Although a poll showed that 52% of voters supported repealing the RRAA, this was back in December. The backers of Prop 6 did get nearly double the signatures needed, and a June poll showed Yes with a 13-point lead, so I think this one will pass.

Prop 7 would allow the legislature to switch to permanent DST by a 2/3 vote. Since people are tired of going forward and back twice a year, this will pass.

Prop 8 would require kidney dialysis clinics to refund either patients or their insurance companies for anything the clinics earn over 115% of the costs of direct care and improvements. If they don't refund a patient or company within 210 days, they could get fined. This one seems a little on the excessive side to me, and I think it'll be rejected.

Prop 10 would repeal a state law that forbids cities from imposing rent controls on apartments. This one, I think, will pass.

Prop 11 would expand training and benefits to EMTs while requiring them to remain on call during lunch break while paying them at their normal rate...it'll probably pass.

Prop 12 would ban the sale of meat that's been confined in extremely small spaces. Knowing Cali, it'll pass. On a side note, PETA actually opposes this for not going far enough.


Seven constitutional questions here. Amendment A would repeal the convict's exception to the state's ban on slavery. This Means that convicts working in prison would now have to be paid. Difficult here, but I think it'll pass.

Next, we have Amendment V. This would reduce the minimum age for serving in the legislature from 25 to 21. This was rejected 10 yeas ago, and I'm not sure it can succeed now.

Amendment W would consolidate judicial ballots by allowing county clerks to put one question down for retention per level of courts rather than each judge individually. This one will pass.

Amendment X would eliminate industrial hemp from the state constitution and move its definition to a regular law, thus making it more flexible should industrial hemp be accepted on a federal level. This one will pass.

Amendments Y and Z would create independent redistricting commissions for federal and state legislative districts. Given Colorado's leanings, they'll both pass.

Finally, Amendment 73 would abolish Colorado's current flat income tax and set up a progressive tax with five brackets, all of which are directed at high earners($150,000 or more). It would also raise the corporate income tax to 6% from the current 4.63%, lower property taxes for educational purposes, and set up the Quality Public Education Fund, which would be funded by the new taxes. I can see this one passing.


Just two constitutional measures here. The first would be a transport lockbox amendment, which'll easily pass. The other would require public hearing on state land transfers or sales and a 2/3 majority of the legislature to approve them. Right now, the legislature only needs a simple majority and no public hearings. This will also pass.


Florida is unique. Every 20 years, a constitutional commission meets and decides on issues that it thinks should go on the ballot as amendments. Often, they'll combine issues base on general categories before sending them to the polls. This can lead to very disparate issues coming up, as you'll see. Also, unlike a lot of the others, these have actual poll numbers behind them!

First is Amendment 1, which would raise the property tax exemption from $100,000 to $125,000. It will pass with more than the 60% needed.

Amendment 2 would extend a 10-year cap on certain property assessments permanently. Not expected to pass.

Amendment 3 would require the voters' approval to expand gambling in Florida including to allow land-based casinos. This barely squeaks by according to a poll from last month, but it could pass.

Amendment 4 would restore the voting rights of most convicted felons(except for murderers and sexual felons)after they've finished their sentences. 43% are undecided at the moment, so this could pass, but that depends on turnout.

Amendment 5 would require a 2/3 vote of the legislature to either raise taxes or levy new ones. This one isn't likely to pass.

From here on, these are all commission proposals. Amendment 6 would add Marsy's Law, raise the judicial retirement age to 75, and prohibit courts from referring to the opinions of government agencies in regards to laws, only depending on existing legal precedent. Not expected to pass. Just Marsy's Law could've easily done it, but all the rest...

Amendment 7 would require the employers of first responders to pay death benefits to survivors, require the state to do the same to military survivors if their spouse was accidentally or unlawfully and intentionally killed(think murdered in the street), require supermajorities of a college's board of trustees and the state board of education to raise tuition rates, and set the state's educational system in the constitution. This is highly expected to pass with 80% support.

Amendment 8 would establish eight-year term limits for school board members, require the legislature to promote civil literacy in public education, and allow the state to set up schools outside of the county school boards including charter schools, collegiate schools, and other types. This is also expected to pass.

Amendment 9 would ban offshore oil drilling....and vaping in public places. Don't ask me how those two are connected in any way, shape or form. It's not likely to pass, but it has a chance.

Amendment 10 would require the creation of a state VA Department and a state Office of Domestic Security and Counter-Terrorism, change the opening date of the legislature to the second Tuesday in January in even-numbered years(currently starting in March), and prohibit counties from abolishing certain major offices while guaranteeing that those offices are all elected. Another expected rejection.

Amendment 11 would eliminate a ban on foreign-born people who aren't citizens from owning property, repeal a requirement for a high-speed rail system, and delete a provision that says that an amendment to criminal statute doesn't affect prosecution of a crime before the amendment was passed. This last one is called the Savings Clause, and only three states still have it. Nonetheless, this isn't expected to pass.

Amendment 12 would prohibit public officials from paid lobbying jobs while in office and for six years thereafter. It's just on the cusp of reaching the threshold according to the poll, and I think it'll get over it by November.


Five constitutional questions here, so let's get started. Number one is a measure that would allow school districts within a county to put a 1% sales and use tax on the ballot. If the tax is approved, it can last for up to five years, after which time, the people who have to vote to renew it. Simply, this will give school districts a means for building the building without having to resort to bonds. I think it'll pass.

Number two would let the legislature revamp the formula that determines taxes on forest land use conservation property(any privately-held forest plot of 200+acres that isn't meant for development), and it would also create the new designation of "commercial timberland"(commercial property meant for logging purposes) while also allowing a law giving 5% of an assistance grant, which is currently given to cities and counties to make up for the lost revenue of keeping forests intact, to the state to fund the grant programme. It passed the legislature unanimously, so I think it'll pass.

Number three would implement a Marsy's Law. Yep, it'll pass easily.

Number four would create a separate state business court that could adjudicate issues bases on business and commercial law. Fulton and Gwinnett Counties already have similar courts that specialise in these types of laws. The unnumbered amount of judges would be appointed by the governor, confirmed by the house and senate judiciary committees, and serve an unlimited amount of five-year terms. I actually don't know if this one will pass or not, I'm leaning against it though.

Number five would allow the legislature to create the Georgia Outdoor Stewardship Trust Fund and allocate as much as 80 % of revenue from the state's outdoor equipment sales tax towards it. This is expected to pass.


First, Hawaii will be voting on whether or not to hold a constitutional convention in November. The state constitution automatically puts such a question on the ballot if nine-years have passed without the legislature doing so(effectively, every 10 years unless the legislature calls otherwise). A June poll from the Honolulu Civil Beat showed over 65% support for a convention, which would be the first since 1978. So I think this could pass.

They also have an amendment to consider as well. This would allow the legislature to place surcharges on investment properties and for money from that surcharge to go to the state's education fund. Hawaii alone does not use property taxes for school funding, relying, instead, on income taxes and excise taxes. I think this one will pass.


Idaho has two measures: Prop 1 would legalise using video terminals for people to bet on instant racing, or historical horse racing. Basically, you bet on old races with others in a pool, and if you win, you get the money. It was legalised in 2013, then banned in 2015 after legislators said they'd been deceived. Now, it's on the ballot and has a chance of passing into law.

They also have Prop 2, which would expand Medicaid under ACA guidelines. With 66% in favour including a majority of Republicans, I think this will pass.


Indiana has Public Question 1 in November, which would require a balanced budget. Personally, I think balanced budget amendments are overrated and don't always mesh with economic realities...but I know I'm in the minority. This will pass.


Here, there's just a Marsy's Law Amendment, which'll pass.


Six constitutional questions up for grabs here. Amendment 1 would bar convicted felons from running for public office for five years after their sentences are up unless they've been pardoned. It's been twenty years since Louisiana voters passed a stricter version of this measure, one that the State Supreme Court struck down in 2016 for a mistake in the ballot's text at the time. No errors here, though, so it will pass.

Amendment 2 would require a unanimous verdict for felony trials....wait, what? Yes, Louisiana(since 1898) and, to a lesser extent, Oregon only require 10 jurors for a guilty verdict rather than the full 12. Lest you think that SCOTUS would've said something by now, they ruled in 1972 that the 6th Amendment only required unanimous verdicts in federal cases, but that the 14th Amendment didn't require them for state cases. Hence this. I think Louisiana will join the 21st century here, even Oregon requires unanimous verdicts for murder trials.

Amendment 3 would allow political subdivisions(cities, parishes, and the like)to loan equipment to each other through written agreements. This is on the ballot after a town got in trouble for loaning a vacuum truck and its operator to another agency in 2016. Towns and agencies were forbidden from exchanging equipment, so this is set to rectify that problem and will likely pass.

Amendment 4 would forbid the state from using the state transportation fund to give money to the state police for traffic control. This was proposed because money that was claimed to go to traffic control was actually going into other state police facets instead. I think this one will pass..

Amendment 5 would allow special tax assessments for properties in trusts where the the resident is either a disabled veteran or the surviving spouse of a veteran or first responder. This would mean they would either be exempt or paying much lower taxes. Easily approved.

Amendment 6 would require that tax increases from certain appraisals(an increase in value of 50% or more) would be phased in over a period of four years. This also seems likely to pass.


Five votes here, four are bond issues, so let's move on to the one that matters .

Question 1 would levy a 3.8% payroll tax on people making more than $128,400 a year and a 3.8% tax on non-wage income such as stock dividends and bond interest above the same threshold. This would go to the creation of the Universal Home Care Programme, which would provide free long-term home care and social services to all residents over age 65 and the physically and mentally disabled. I'm not sure it'll pass myself, though I think it can. Not because people don't agree with it, but because it might not be enough to fund such an endeavour.


Two amendments in Maryland to look at. The first would allow the legislature to pass an Election Day-registration law, which allows people to register and vote on the same day. This one, I believe, will pass.

Number two is an education lockbox amendment that says that gambling revenues would only go to educational funding. By 2023, all gambling revenue would go to to the education fund on top of the minimum required funding already appropriated by the state. I also think this one will pass.


First, we have Question 1. This would impose limits on the number of patients that a nurse could take care of at any one time. Limits go from one patient under anesthesia or on ICU per nurse to as many as six patients who are well babies or uncomplicated postpartum mothers and children. Hospitals would be required to meet these limits without reducing staff. It survived a commonwealth Supreme Court ruling in June, and like a lot of the others here, no polling. Still, I think it will pass.

Question 2 would set up a 15-member citizens' commission to advocate for a federal constitutional amendment overturning Citizens United V. FEC. Massachusetts being what it is, this will pass.

Question 3 is the most contentious of all. Back in 2016, the General Court passed SB 2407, which banned discrimination on the basis of gender identity. A group opposed to the measure managed to get enough signatures together for a people's veto referendum, which is what Question 3 is. If people vote No, then the bill will be vetoed and discrimination can continue. A poll taken by Boston's WBUR radio at the end of May showed that 52% of voters will uphold SB 2407, and I don't think the tide will change against them come November.
Last edited by Shrillland on Thu Aug 09, 2018 6:53 pm, edited 11 times in total.
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Postby Shrillland » Mon Jul 16, 2018 2:11 pm

One law and one amendment here. The law would legalise, tax, and regulate the sale of recreational marijuana and industrial hemp. The latest poll from early May has it fairly close, with approve just six points ahead, but the poll was drafted by the anti- group. To that end, I think it'll pass easily.

The amendment, meanwhile, would create a independent redistricting commission for state and federal districts. Considering what some of the districts around Detroit look like, I see this one passing. This one does have a court challenge, but it'll likely be upheld.


Four amendments and three laws to look at here. Amendment 1 is a fairly sweeping provision that would ban lawmakers from becoming lobbyists during their time in office and for two years thereafter, forbid legislators from accepting gifts from lobbyists over five dollars, establish a $2,500 per person limit for campaign contributions for Representatives and Senators, forbid the allowance of unlimited contributions, prohibit contributions using fake names or intermediaries, make legislative records public, and create the office of non-partisan state demographer. The State Auditor would create a list of potential demographers that had not held a partisan office for at least four years before selection and could not do so for four years after their term is up. The Majority and Minority Leaders in the Senate would choose a person from the list, and that person would be tasked with drawing legislative districts. A lot to put into a single amendment, but I think it will pass. However, the contribution limit could lead to a court challenge.

Amendments 2 and 3 AND Prop C would all legalise medical marijuana, the difference between them being taxation and where the money would go. Prop C is a regular law that would impose a 2% tax that would go to VA services, drug treatment, education, and law enforcement, Amendment 2 would impose a 4% tax that would go to VA healthcare services, and Amendment 3 would impose a 15% tax that would go to the funding and creation of a new state Biomedical Research and Drug Development Institute. That at least one of these will pass, I have no doubt. And since Missouri has no overriding statutes on things like this, I think that C and 2 will both pass, but 3's taxes are too high for most voters and will be rejected.

Amendment 4 would remove the current ban on organisations advertising bingo games and allow someone to call a bingo game after being part of an organisation for six months(currently, the requirement is two years). This has been rejected twice in the last 40 years, most recently in 2000 with a resounding 67% no vote. I don't see it passing now.

Prop B would raise the state's minimum wage to $12 an hour by 2023 and thereafter indexing it to the CPI annually. Since Missouri already indexes it this way, I think this one could pass.

Finally, Prop D would increase the state's gas tax from 17 to 27 cents per gallon with the money going to the Missouri Highway Patrol, exempt prizes from the Olympics, Paralympics, and Special Olympics from state taxes, and create the Emergency State Freight Bottleneck Fund, which would be used to fund projects that alleviate traffic jams that can slow down the movement of freight goods. This definitely won't pass, I think just on the gas tax increase alone.


Four laws up here. First, LR-128 is straightforward: an renewal for a .06% property tax to fund the University of Montana for 10 years. It'll pass.

Next, LR-129 would ban people from collecting the election ballots of other people unless they're caregivers, relatives/spouses, or election officials/postal workers. If you are exempt, you would have to provide your name, the voter's name, and your relationship to the voter. This is meant for people who collect mail-in or absentee ballots to send to the designated polling places. Out west, this is actually not an uncommon practice since many people either have no vehicle to get to the polling place or don't have the money to even get stamps, particularly out on Native reservations. A lot of people probably won't see a problem with this ban even though it's not really necessary...so I think it'll pass.

The third is I-185. This would raise tobacco taxes by $2 per pack and taxes on other types of tobacco or e-cigarette products in similar proportions. The proceeds from the tax increase would fund the state's portion of Medicaid as well as anti-smoking programmes and long-term care for seniors and the disabled. I think it could pass, but I'm not too certain yet.

The fourth is I-186. This would require Montana's Environmental Quality Department to automatically reject permits for hard rock mines if the mining company's reclamation plans don't include sufficient means to preserve water supplies in the area without "perpetual treatment", which means eliminating acids, mercury, or lead on a permanent basis. I'm not sure this one will pass, but knowing Montana, it has a chance.


Four amendments and two laws here. First, Question 1 would add Marsy's Law to the Constitution. Like the others, it'll pass.

Question 2 would exempt feminine hygiene products from state and local sales taxes. About time, isn't it? This will easily pass.

Question 3 would amend the constitution to require the legislature to establish an open, free, and competitive retail energy market(read: Deregulation) and prohibit energy monopolies. Considering that Brian Sandoval, Harry Reid, and Sheldon Adelson have made an alliance from hell to get this going...it could be rejected, but it'll be close if it is.

Question 4 would exempt things like oxygen equipment, mobility equipment, and similar medical goods from sales taxes. Another one that'll pass easily.

Question 5 would automatically register people to vote if they get a driver's licence or ID. Another one that'll pass, but it'll be closer than some might think I think.

Question 6(just added on July 13) would amend the constitution to require utilities to generate at least 50% of their energy from renewable sources by 2030(currently the threshold is 25% by 2025). Since this just got on the ballot, there's no polling, but I think it could pass.


Two amendments here. The first is a true "Live Free or Die" proposal, guaranteeing the right to freedom from governmental intrusion in private or personal information. A giant middle finger to NSA surveillance is basically what it is. Knowing New Hampshire, it'll easily get the 2/3 majority it needs to pass.

The second gives all taxpayers the right to take legal action against the state or any municipality if they feel that the government is spending public funds illegally. Another one that'll easily pass.


Four bond issues...and two amendments.

Constitutional Amendment 1 would allow the legislature to set the appeals process from probate courts and other lower courts. Currently, they all go to the New Mexico District Court, but this would let the legislature send some of them straight to the State Court of Appeals. This was a bipartisan measure, and I think it'll pass.

Constitutional Amendment 2 would create an independent, seven-member state ethics commission meant to investigate ethics violations. Another easy approval.


Six proposed amendments here. The first would guarantee a right to hunt and fish. This one I can see passing simply because most Red states and Purple states are supportive of things like this.

Number two would implement another Marsy's Law...pass...moving on...

Number three would remove the Governor's authority to make appointments to the State Board of Ethics and Elections Enforcement, and transfer that power to the Legislature, in their latest salvo against Gov. Roy Cooper. This one...I'm not sure. I'm going to wait until polls come in for this one.

Number four would also limit the Governor's power, taking away his authority to to fill judicial vacancies that occur between elections. A commission would select the candidates, the legislature would reduce the list down to two nominees, and the governor would choose from the two. This one I think will be approved.

Number five would lower the maximum allowed state income tax rate from 10% to 7%. Easy to pass in a state like North Carolina.

Number six is a photo ID amendment...another rubber stamp I'm afraid, North Carolina isn't that purple.


Two amendments and two laws here to speak of. The first one would require the state to establish a five-member ethics commission, ban foreign campaign contributions, require campaign finance information to be accessible to the public, and impose new restrictions on lobbyists. I think this one stands a good chance of being approved.

The second one would amend the constitution to say that only US citizens could vote in elections in the state. It's a proposal that's kind of redundant, but I'm sure it will pass.

The third measure is a law that would legalise recreational marijuana over age 21 and implement an automatic expungement process for any and all persons who were convicted of possession of controlled substances that are now legal. I'm not sure that this one will pass. Legal marijuana would, but the expungement process might be too sweeping for many.

Finally, there's a proposed law that would require volunteer EMTs to have a special licence plate. It would also let people who have these plates go into state parks for free. This will easily pass.


One amendment here to consider. Issue 1 would reduce drug possession and use to misdemeanours, forbid courts from sending felons on probation to prison for non-criminal probation violations, create a sentence credits programme for those in work or rehab programms, and require the money that the state will save on their reduced prison population from all of this be used on treatment, rehabilitation and victim's programmes. I'm going to wait for the poll numbers to come in on this one.


Five proposed amendments here. SQ 793 would guarantee the right for optometrists to sell their wares in retail establishments. Basically, it would allow eyeglass shops in places like Wal-Mart or CVS since Oklahoma is one of only a few states that don't already allow this. I think this one will pass.

SQ 794 is (cue animation)The Blood of Those Who Fought For Their Freedom! No? OK, it's a Marsy's Law Amendment. Pass.

SQ 798 would unite the Governor and Lieutenant Governor onto a single ticket come election time. Another commonsense easily passable proposal. The latest poll was back in January, but it showed 58% approval.

SQ 800 would create the Oklahoma Vision Fund and use it to invest 5% of the state's annual oil and gas revenue. Every year, 4% of the fund's 5-year average would go to the state's general fund. This will be approved.

SQ 801 would allow localities to vote on implementing property taxes to fund school operations(currently, they can only do so for new construction). Another easy pass....sorry if this seems repetitive or unthinking, as I said, very few of these have polls as of yet, so I have to go by what I can figure out.


Five measures to consider here. First up is Measure 102, which would allows cities, towns, and counties to use municipal bond revenue to build affordable housing without having to actually own the properties themselves. No polling yet, but I think it'll pass.

Second is Measure 103, which would prohibit state or local authorities from imposing sales taxes on groceries. This is considered by many to be a thinly-veiled attempt at stopping Portland from passing a soda tax, and I think it will be rejected.

Next, we have Measure 104. Currently, the state Constitution requires a 3/5 majority to pass bills that raise revenue, but in 2015, the state Supreme Court ruled that bills that ended tax exemptions,credits, or other tax breaks, didn't qualify as technically raising revenue. Initiative 31 would amend the constitution to say that ending tax breaks is raising revenue. I actually don't think this will make it.

Fourth is Measure 105. This measure would repeal Oregon's current status as a sanctuary state. It'll be closer than some think, but I think that it will be defeated.

Finally, we have Measure 106. This would amend the state constitution to forbid state money or any public funds on abortion. A recent poll shows that 53% of Oregonians are opposed to such a measure, so I think it will be rejected.


Three bond measures. Nothing to see here.


Just one amendment to make the state superintendent of education an appointed rather than elected position. It'll pass.


Two laws and three amendments. First up is Initiated Measure 24, which would ban individuals, PACs, companies, and just anyone from outside the state from making donations to in-state ballot question committees. It could pass, but I'm not sure it would survive a court battle.

Next we have Initiated Measure 25, which raises the tobacco tax by a dollar and increases the wholesale tax from 35% to 55%, the proceeds going to lowering the tuition of the state's technical institutes. Since it attacks cigarettes, this is another easy approval.

Next, we have Amendment W. This would replace the current state accountability and ethics commission with a stronger, seven-member Government Accountability Board. It would also cap campaign contributions for individual candidates, ban lobbyists from giving gifts to lawmakers, ban public officials from becoming lobbyists while in office and for two years after, cement the current simple majority requirements for initiatives into the constitution, and forbid the legislature from amending or repealing initiatives without the voters approval. I think this can pass...but with the contribution caps, the whole thing could die in court.

On to Amendment X. This would require a 55% supermajority for all constitutional amendments. There's no word on how this would potentially affect the amendments coming up alongside it if it gets ratified. I'm not sure it'll pass yet. I'll wait for this one.

Finally, Amendment Z. This is a single-subject rule that says amendments to the constitution should only concern one subject of interest. This one'll probably pass.


Three amendments, three laws, and an advisory question that I'm not even going to bother with. Being from Illinois, all we get is advisory questions, and they're almost never implemented.

First, we have an amendment that would change the time required for active-duty soldiers and their spouses to receive a property tax exemption. Currently, it's for 200 days in a calendar year. If this passes, it becomes 200 days in a 365-day period, which greatly increases the number of people eligible. This one'll pass.

Next, an amendment that would make private property that the state or a municipality is leasing from its owner exempt from property taxes. In 2016, a similar amendment that would've exempted tangible personal property was soundly defeated. This one expands the definition to all real estate, but I don't see it passing either.

The third amendment would allow the legislature to call a special session during an emergency. It would last up to 10 days and could not start until at least 30 days after the regular session ended. Any appropriations made during this session could not exceed 1% of the state's budget. The Governor would still be able to call a special session, this would just give the House Speaker and the Senate President the same authority. I do believe it'll be approved.

Now for Prop 2. This law would legalise medical marijuana. Despite the opposition of the LDS Church, a May poll showed that 72% of voters supported the measure, and I'm inclined to take that as a projection.

Next, Prop 3. This would let Utah join the states that expanded Medicaid under the ACA(yes, its still around). To fund the expansion, the state sales tax would go up from 4.7% to 4.85%. 63% of voters approve this in the May poll I mentioned before.

Finally, Prop 4. This would create a seven-member independent redistricting commission to map federal and state legislative districts. They would send their map to the state's chief justice, he would decide to approve it, and the legislature would get the final say. No polling here, but I think it'll pass.


Two amendments here. The first one would allow the legislature to authorise local governments to provide partial property tax exemptions to homes in flood-prone areas if their added value comes from flood damage mitigation measures. This will pass.

Number two would remove a current restriction on where a disabled soldier's spouse can have their property taxes exempted. Right now, they're only exempt in the place they were living in when the soldier got disabled. If it's removed, they can still be exempt even if they move to another place in Virginia. This will also pass.


Three measures to look at. Initiative 1631 would impose a carbon tax of $15 per metric tonne starting in 2020, going up by $2 annually until the state reaches its 2035 emissions goals are met and its 2050 goals are on track, the proceeds going to fund two environmental funds, one for air pollution and green energy, and another for water pollution and forest preservation. Considering that Washington just rejected a carbon tax in 2016 by a pretty good margin, I don't see this one passing.

Initiative 1634 would ban counties and municipalities from levying taxes on groceries. The state would still be allowed to levy sales taxes on them. I don't see this one passing right now, but I could be proving wrong by the polls.

Initiative 1639 would bring fairly sweeping gun control regulations to the state including raising the minimum age for buying semiautomatic assault rifles(SARS for future reference) and pistols to 21, require prospective owners of all firearms to undergo background checks and pass firearm safety exams, impose a 10-day waiting period on purchasing SARs, require gun shops to charge a $25 licence fee, and make leaving guns in places where people forbidden from possessing them can get to them a Class C Felony. Washington isn't as uniformly blue as some think, and there are some issues about the signature sheets, so it might not survive a court challenge. If it manages to do so, I think it will pass, but it'll be closer than some might think.


The last state has a similar measure as the first: Amendment 1, which would say that nothing in the constitution secures or protects the right to abortion. I think that this one could be rejected.

Amendment 2 would give the legislature the right to set and reduce the state judiciary's budget. West Virginia is the only state where the judiciary sets its own budget independent of the legislature. This will pass thanks to the explosive scandal that WV is currently embroiled in where their chief justice was spending $30,000 on each of five couches and is now on the verge of being removed.
Last edited by Shrillland on Tue Aug 14, 2018 8:38 pm, edited 18 times in total.
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San Lumen
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Postby San Lumen » Mon Jul 16, 2018 3:31 pm

Im sad that my state has no referendums this year.

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Postby Shrillland » Mon Jul 16, 2018 3:33 pm

San Lumen wrote:Im sad that my state has no referendums this year.


Mine almost never does either, not least because it's rigged to where only the legislature can bring them up in most cases. Citizen initiatives are limited to a narrow scope on constitutional questions in Illinois, is New York that bad?
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Postby San Lumen » Mon Jul 16, 2018 3:37 pm

Shrillland wrote:
San Lumen wrote:Im sad that my state has no referendums this year.


Mine almost never does either, not least because it's rigged to where only the legislature can bring them up in most cases. Citizen initiatives are limited to a narrow scope on constitutional questions in Illinois, is New York that bad?


In New York they can only occur via legislatively referred amendments. I dont believe there are any restrictions on them.

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Postby Morgantown West Virginia » Tue Jul 17, 2018 11:29 am

First Poll Update of the (Third) Second Megathread:
Florida Senate- Scott vs Nelson- Gravis
Nelson 47%
Scott 43%
Nelson +4

Tennessee Senate- Blackburn vs Bredesen- Emerson
Bredesen 43%
Blackburn 37%
Bredesen +6

New Jersey Senate- Hugin vs Menendez- Gravis
Menendez 43%
Hugin 41%
Menendez +2

Florida Governor- GOP Primary- Gravis
DeSantis 35%
Putnam 29%
White 4%
Rivas 4%
DeSantis +6

Florida Governor- Dem Primary- Gravis
Graham 27%
Greene 18%
Levine 17%
Gillum 10%
Graham +9

Florida Governor- DeSantis vs Graham- Gravis
Graham 42%
DeSantis 38%
Graham +4

Florida Governor- Putnam vs Graham- Gravis
Putnam 40%
Graham 39%
Putnam +1

Florida Governor- DeSantis vs Levine- Gravis
DeSantis 40%
Levine 38%
DeSantis +2

Florida Governor- Putnam vs Levine- Gravis
Putnam 43%
Levine 38%
Putnam +5

Michigan Governor- GOP Primary- JMC Analytics
Schuette 25%
Calley 17%
Colbeck 10%
Hines 4%
Schuette +8

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Postby Freezic Vast » Tue Jul 17, 2018 11:33 am

Okay that poll number for New Jersey is too close, if those numbers are like that for the next month or so, New Jersey could be seen as a sleeper race in the Senate where a normally safe Democratic seat could flip.
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Postby Morgantown West Virginia » Tue Jul 17, 2018 11:38 am

Freezic Vast wrote:Okay that poll number for New Jersey is too close, if those numbers are like that for the next month or so, New Jersey could be seen as a sleeper race in the Senate where a normally safe Democratic seat could flip.


Gravis is a conservative poll, but weird that they have NJ closer than FL.

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Postby Shofercia » Tue Jul 17, 2018 11:53 am

California's like a girl gone wild with bond referendums. $14.377 billion in bonds this year - da fuck? Especially after this: https://www.sfchronicle.com/politics/ar ... 812264.php

California has come a long way to dig itself out of budget deficits, but the state remains on shaky ground due to nearly $400 billion in unfunded liabilities and debt from public pensions, retiree health care and bonds, financial analysts say. “Yes, the state’s budget is balanced if you are looking at what they are required to spend cash on this year, but not when you look at their expenses,” said Gabe Petek, a credit analyst with Standard & Poor’s.


It's like we're addicted to debt. That's Props 1, 3, and 4. Prop 2 simply moves money that's in one part of the budget to another. Proposition 5 is not a good one, as that will hit school budgets, first and foremost, and those are already struggling. Prop 6 is a mixed bag; the tax on vehicles and fuel is cool and helpful, but California's Legislature needs to reign in their spending. I wish Prop 6 was split into two parts, one addressing the tax, the other addressing future increases.

Prop 7 is what happens when we're bored. Don't really care about it. Prop 8 is good, reigns in a small part of healthcare waste. Less waste is a good thing. Prop 9 - lulz! That's really all I have to say. Prop 10 - good for property owners, bad for renters, and will upset the balance, so I'm going with "no", we're not ready for it as a state. Prop 11 - why didn't we have this before? It sort of makes sense for emergency workers to respond in case of an emergency. Kind of sad we have to vote on it. Prop 12 - animal rights activists versus poor Latino immigrants and inner city blacks, going to be interesting to watch.
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Postby San Lumen » Tue Jul 17, 2018 12:41 pm

Freezic Vast wrote:Okay that poll number for New Jersey is too close, if those numbers are like that for the next month or so, New Jersey could be seen as a sleeper race in the Senate where a normally safe Democratic seat could flip.

Gravis does not have a very good track record but with the spending by Hugin I could see it being a closer than expected race. But given the demographics and lean of New Jersey I can't see Menendez losing

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Postby Valrifell » Tue Jul 17, 2018 12:42 pm

Freezic Vast wrote:Okay that poll number for New Jersey is too close, if those numbers are like that for the next month or so, New Jersey could be seen as a sleeper race in the Senate where a normally safe Democratic seat could flip.


To be fair, the charges levied against him for taking bribes from an eye doctor from Florida were only just very recently dropped.

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Postby Valrifell » Tue Jul 17, 2018 12:45 pm

San Lumen wrote:
Freezic Vast wrote:Okay that poll number for New Jersey is too close, if those numbers are like that for the next month or so, New Jersey could be seen as a sleeper race in the Senate where a normally safe Democratic seat could flip.

Gravis does not have a very good track record but with the spending by Hugin I could see it being a closer than expected race. But given the demographics and lean of New Jersey I can't see Menendez losing


I think his legal troubles will really bite him in the ass here, but I don't think he's gonna lose just closer than it otherwise should be.

Quite frankly there are no good options in this race.

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