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Iran threatens to blockade the straits of Hormuz

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The of Japan
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Iran threatens to blockade the straits of Hormuz

Postby The of Japan » Fri Jul 06, 2018 4:58 am

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/ ... hani-trump
A potential confrontation between the US and Iran is brewing in the Strait of Hormuz after Tehran threatened to block the Gulf passageway in retaliation for Washington’s looming sanctions against Iranian oil exports – a threat the US military said would be immediately countered.
The Trump administration is demanding all countries end imports of Iranian oil by 4 November as part of its new policy of hostility towards Tehran after Washington’s unilateral exit from the 2015 nuclear agreement.
Iran’s president, Hassan Rouhani, responded during a rare visit to Europe this week by signalling that Tehran could disrupt regional crude shipments and cut its cooperation with the UN nuclear watchdog.
On Thursday the commander of Iran’s elite Revolutionary Guards, whose forces patrol the Strait of Hormuz – through which one-fifth of the world’s oil passes in tankers – said the Guards were ready to put Rouhani’s words into action if necessary.

The US navy signalled it was ready to confront Tehran militarily in response.
Mohammad Ali Jafari, the Guards commander, was quoted by the semi-official Tasnim news agency as saying: “We will make the enemy understand that either everyone can use the Strait of Hormuz or no one.”
Bill Urban, a spokesman for US Central Command, said Washington and its allies provided security in the region and would not stand idly by. “Together, we stand ready to ensure the freedom of navigation and the free flow of commerce wherever international law allows,” he said.
The threats will bring back memories of the latter years of the 1980s Iran-Iraq war, when US forces attacked Iranian territorial waters after a US ship struck an Iranian mine.

Rouhani returned to Tehran on Thursday after lobbying European leaders to deliver a robust rebuttal to the US withdrawal from the nuclear deal.
“The Americans have claimed they want to completely stop Iran’s oil exports. They don’t understand the meaning of this statement because it has no meaning for Iranian oil not to be exported while the region’s oil is exported,” Rouhani said this week in Switzerland.
“If you can do such a thing, do it and see the result,” Rouhani added in a threat that was lauded at home by the commander of the Quds force, Qassem Suleimani.
The fate of the nuclear deal is in the balance after Donald Trump pulled the US out of it in May before imposing new sanctions despite European resistance and Tehran’s adherence to the agreement, as verified multiple times by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA).
Although the US initially demanded all countries end imports of Iranian oil in the autumn, it is likely to grant temporary exceptions to countries that rely heavily on Iranian crude such as China, India and Turkey.
Ellie Geranmayeh, a senior policy fellow at the European Council on Foreign Relations, said Iran did not view the nuclear agreement solely through the prism of an economic agreement, but also as a political and security deal. She said the Trump administration’s policy was not solely to exit the joint comprehensive plan of action (JCPOA) but also to make it impossible to sustain it.
Rouhani had two overarching messages during his visit to Europe, Geranmayeh said. “First, Iran expects more concrete action from all parties to the nuclear agreement to sustain economic channels. Second, sustaining oil exports and market share is a red line for Iran.

“If Trump implements his threat to squeeze Iran’s oil exports, Tehran is prepared to escalate against the US to impose direct costs for global oil markets. This is a core issue of national security behind which there is growing backing from the political establishment.”
Despite the US’s withdrawal, the deal has not yet collapsed as Europe remains committed to salvaging it. Geranmayeh said Europe was expected to present a more concrete economic package to Iran during a ministerial meeting at the JCPOA’s joint commission on Friday.

Also at stake is Rouhani’s political career. The agreement is the moderate cleric’s main achievement in office, for which he was rewarded with a second term last year, but Trump’s antagonism towards Iran has empowered Rouhani’s hardline opponents at home, risking him becoming an early lame duck.
Trump’s hostility has compounded the country’s economic woes, while Iran is going through weeks of protests due to a currency crisis and environmental issues. Hardliners have started their onslaught on Rouhani, blaming his economic performance for the protests.
Do you all think that Iran would be willing to block straits if trump has an international embargo emplaced on iran, and what do you think will be the consequences of the straits being blocked? I think if Iran tries and stops shipping through it, war between iran and US will probably occur.

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Postby Herskerstad » Fri Jul 06, 2018 5:19 am

No, because Iran quite well knows that if they do so. They'll effectively declare war on the international community.
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Postby Strength and Order » Fri Jul 06, 2018 5:24 am

*Laughs in superior naval capabilities*
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Postby Washington Resistance Army » Fri Jul 06, 2018 5:29 am

Do it Iran, no balls.
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Postby Purpelia » Fri Jul 06, 2018 5:56 am

Strength and Order wrote:*Laughs in superior naval capabilities*

All they need to do is float a lot of mines in the region and they win. You do realize that?
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The of Japan
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Postby The of Japan » Fri Jul 06, 2018 6:02 am

Purpelia wrote:
Strength and Order wrote:*Laughs in superior naval capabilities*

All they need to do is float a lot of mines in the region and they win. You do realize that?

Iran mined it during iran Iraq war to stop Kuwait from exporting oil to finance iraq, didn't work out thanks to US interverntion.

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Postby The Biggles Syndicate » Fri Jul 06, 2018 6:07 am

Purpelia wrote:
Strength and Order wrote:*Laughs in superior naval capabilities*

All they need to do is float a lot of mines in the region and they win. You do realize that?

It would probably take Iran a while to lay all of those mines, because they don't have many minelayers.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_c ... _Iran_Navy

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Postby The of Japan » Fri Jul 06, 2018 6:09 am

The Biggles Syndicate wrote:
Purpelia wrote:All they need to do is float a lot of mines in the region and they win. You do realize that?

It would probably take Iran a while to lay all of those mines, because they don't have many minelayers.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_c ... _Iran_Navy

they just recently launched their first destroyer, so I think they are a bit behind navally.

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Postby Grinning Dragon » Fri Jul 06, 2018 6:14 am

The Biggles Syndicate wrote:
Purpelia wrote:All they need to do is float a lot of mines in the region and they win. You do realize that?

It would probably take Iran a while to lay all of those mines, because they don't have many minelayers.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_c ... _Iran_Navy

Then there is the US Navy Avenger Class of minesweepers.
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Postby Risottia » Fri Jul 06, 2018 6:18 am

The of Japan wrote:Mohammad Ali Jafari, the Guards commander, was quoted by the semi-official Tasnim news agency as saying: “We will make the enemy understand that either everyone can use the Strait of Hormuz or no one.”
Bill Urban, a spokesman for US Central Command, said Washington and its allies provided security in the region and would not stand idly by. “Together, we stand ready to ensure the freedom of navigation and the free flow of commerce wherever international law allows,” he said.

So it looks the US agree that they shouldn't be impeding Iranian oil exports.

Or trade is "free" only when it is "America and countries in its area of influence"?
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Postby The South Falls » Fri Jul 06, 2018 6:18 am

Yea, they're basically done at that point. Iran isn't that stupid. The Iran deal had those sanctions lifted (right). If only we preserved it...
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Postby Risottia » Fri Jul 06, 2018 6:20 am

Strength and Order wrote:*Laughs in superior naval capabilities*

So did the US admirals.

Then came USMC Lt.Gen. Paul Van Riper, that unAmerican hater of freedum..
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Postby Tierra Prime » Fri Jul 06, 2018 6:20 am

Strength and Order wrote:*Laughs in superior naval capabilities*

I am unsure if the situation has changed since, but MC02 suggested that if the US were to militarily challenge Iran by sea and the Iranians were led by a competent commander, the US may suffer heavy losses.

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Postby Bautizar » Fri Jul 06, 2018 6:52 am

Risottia wrote:
Strength and Order wrote:*Laughs in superior naval capabilities*

So did the US admirals.

Then came USMC Lt.Gen. Paul Van Riper, that unAmerican hater of freedum..

Agreed. The small-boat issue was a lesson the USN was slow to pick up on: it took the bombing of the USS Cole to get the train in motion, and the bombing of the MV Limburg off Yemen to kick it even more into gear. MC02 underscored the threat even more. There have also been a number of incidents since then (the January 2008 incident involving the USS Hopper, USS Ingraham, and USS Port Royal comes to mind, but there have been others).

To its credit, though, the USN has been investing heavily into countering this danger. New platforms such as the MQ-4C Triton, P-8 Poseidon, and RIM-116 Rolling Airframe Missile have come online since 2002. There's also the ongoing effort with ship-mounted lasers for use against small boats, the Littoral Combat Ship, and more.

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Postby Thermodolia » Fri Jul 06, 2018 7:12 am

Purpelia wrote:
Strength and Order wrote:*Laughs in superior naval capabilities*

All they need to do is float a lot of mines in the region and they win. You do realize that?

Tomahawks don’t care
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Postby Thermodolia » Fri Jul 06, 2018 7:14 am

Risottia wrote:
Strength and Order wrote:*Laughs in superior naval capabilities*

So did the US admirals.

Then came USMC Lt.Gen. Paul Van Riper, that unAmerican hater of freedum..

You seriously think that we didn’t change our tactics?
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Postby Constitutional Technocracy of Minecraft » Fri Jul 06, 2018 7:15 am

Iranian navy: We're going to blockade the straits of Hormuz because you sanctioned our oil exports!!!
US navy: leave noob

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Postby Internationalist Bastard » Fri Jul 06, 2018 7:15 am

Well hopefully they aren’t stupid
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Postby NeuPolska » Fri Jul 06, 2018 7:17 am

Hell yeah, let's fuck them up

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Postby Internationalist Bastard » Fri Jul 06, 2018 7:18 am

NeuPolska wrote:Hell yeah, let's fuck them up

Lets not
Remember when we fucked up Iraq?
Last edited by Internationalist Bastard on Fri Jul 06, 2018 7:18 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Postby Washington Resistance Army » Fri Jul 06, 2018 7:19 am

Internationalist Bastard wrote:
NeuPolska wrote:Hell yeah, let's fuck them up

Lets not
Remember when we fucked up Iraq?


We won't do an occupation this time, it'll be fine.
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Postby NeuPolska » Fri Jul 06, 2018 7:20 am

Internationalist Bastard wrote:
NeuPolska wrote:Hell yeah, let's fuck them up

Lets not
Remember when we fucked up Iraq?

I mean yeah it fucked up the country as a whole but that was a fantastic victory for the Coalition.

Taking out Iran would be a great strategic move against Russia and therefore China as well.

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Postby Internationalist Bastard » Fri Jul 06, 2018 7:21 am

NeuPolska wrote:
Internationalist Bastard wrote:Lets not
Remember when we fucked up Iraq?

I mean yeah it fucked up the country as a whole but that was a fantastic victory for the Coalition.

Taking out Iran would be a great strategic move against Russia and therefore China as well.

Until we’re stuck in Iran for 8 years
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Risottia
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Postby Risottia » Fri Jul 06, 2018 7:22 am

Bautizar wrote:

Agreed. The small-boat issue was a lesson the USN was slow to pick up on: it took the bombing of the USS Cole to get the train in motion, and the bombing of the MV Limburg off Yemen to kick it even more into gear. MC02 underscored the threat even more. There have also been a number of incidents since then (the January 2008 incident involving the USS Hopper, USS Ingraham, and USS Port Royal comes to mind, but there have been others).

To its credit, though, the USN has been investing heavily into countering this danger. New platforms such as the MQ-4C Triton, P-8 Poseidon, and RIM-116 Rolling Airframe Missile have come online since 2002. There's also the ongoing effort with ship-mounted lasers for use against small boats, the Littoral Combat Ship, and more.

Sourcing: Former USN Operational Intelligence Analyst (2007-2013). Spent 10 months on deployment in the Northern Indian Ocean and Persian Gulf, from 2007-2008.


The point isn't "now we can cover small boat threats". The point is the arrogance of thinking always "we are ready now", when, as every military in history, you're always ready for the last war that happened, and not for the next one.
Last edited by Risottia on Fri Jul 06, 2018 7:22 am, edited 1 time in total.
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