Japan's aging problem

[The Transhuman Union]

In the recent years, starting from 2010, Japan has experienced decline in its population growth for the first time since 1945. And it only gotten worse. In the period of 2010-2015, Japan's population has shrunk by a whole million. And in 2015-2018, it shrunk by 350,000. According to the Statistics Bureau:

http://www.stat.go.jp/english/data/jins ... /index.htm

People which are older than 65 years in Japan comprise 27.8% of the population as of 2018, compared to 2010 with 23%! And it doesn't look like it's going to change soon... This as we all know will put the Japanese workforce and social services in great danger, especially when you consider the fact that there is no major immigration to Japan.
It is predicted that by 2060, 40% of Japan's population would be 65+ or older (but predictions are predictions...)

This really sparked my interest when I started researching about it and made me curious about what will happen to the Japan in the future. If this continues, what implications will it cause to Japan? How much will it affect the Japanese economy? But, most importantly, can it be averted in anyway imaginable? Or this effect is inevitable to Japan (and other countries)?

What are your thoughts, NSG?

[The Divine Japanese Empire]

Scary for all nations. (Not just here because of my name)

[The Transhuman Union]

Scary for all nations. (Not just here because of my name)

Yeah, but it looks like Japan will be hit first. That's why I'm discussing about Japan specifically.

[Herskerstad]

Better important millions of low educated third world migrants as that will absolutely solve the problem.

On a serious note. It will have a multitude of effects. It will encourage Chinese-Japanese migration work visas. More automated care. Much more lucrative inheritance on average. It might also spark a more pronounced debate to encourage having larger families or even adoption. It will also put pressures on the government to invest more in the system.

I got a feeling Japan will manage rather well compared to most of the world.

[Heffburg]

The population will balance out eventually. It’s nothing to be really worried about.

[NeuPolska]

Japanese companies are literally working on making caretaker machines. I saw a demonstration of one about three years ago actually. It could run, sing, and walk around. Not sure how well it could handle moving objects or anything like that but it’s been three years so I assume they’ve figured something out.

Either people need to have way more sex or we need to bow down to robots a whole lot faster.

[The Transhuman Union]

Better important millions of low educated third world migrants as that will absolutely solve the problem.

On a serious note. It will have a multitude of effects. It will encourage Chinese-Japanese migration work visas. More automated care. Much more lucrative inheritance on average. It might also spark a more pronounced debate to encourage having larger families or even adoption. It will also put pressures on the government to invest more in the system.

I got a feeling Japan will manage rather well compared to most of the world.

'Chinese-Japanese migration work visas' Might a be good idea, but the Chinese and Japanese are not exactly diplomatically friends... But it could happen possibly, we'll see.
'Pressures on the government to invest more in the system' By how exactly? I'm curious.

[The Transhuman Union]

The population will balance out eventually. It’s nothing to be really worried about.

What about the pension system then? It would need more spending and would have a smaller base of people who contribute to it.

[Risottia]

If this continues, what implications will it cause to Japan?

The Japanese will substitute the new generations with kawai robots.

Eventually, only the Imperial family will be left, and every other humanoid in Japan will be an artificial being.

[LimaUniformNovemberAlpha]

Japanese companies are literally working on making caretaker machines. I saw a demonstration of one about three years ago actually. It could run, sing, and walk around. Not sure how well it could handle moving objects or anything like that but it’s been three years so I assume they’ve figured something out.

Either people need to have way more sex or we need to bow down to robots a whole lot faster.

It's not abstinence that's the issue. It's the impracticality of having both children and a career there. Otherwise there would be no incentive for abstinence.

[NeuPolska]

Let’s just all go to war already. Everyone knows wars fix economies and increase child production.

[Benuty]

Let’s just all go to war already. Everyone knows wars fix economies and increase child production.

Wars only work for population increase if a baby boom happens during, and after the war.

[Heffburg]

The population will balance out eventually. It’s nothing to be really worried about.

What about the pension system then? It would need more spending and would have a smaller base of people who contribute to it.

True, that is a valid short term issue. State pensions will likely have to be lowered to cope with such a demographic imbalance. You could likely come up with several of these short term issues. My point is that in the long term, as the elderly eventually pass away, the demographics will return to a natural, sustainable level, albeit with fewer people overall.

The ‘solution’ many countries are trying to implement, particularly in the west, is by opening the flood gates to immigrants. However, all this does is push the problem further down the line, whilst also putting additional strain on many aspects of society.

[NeuPolska]

Let’s just all go to war already. Everyone knows wars fix economies and increase child production.

Wars only work for population increase if a baby boom happens during, and after the war.

Yes

Japanese companies are literally working on making caretaker machines. I saw a demonstration of one about three years ago actually. It could run, sing, and walk around. Not sure how well it could handle moving objects or anything like that but it’s been three years so I assume they’ve figured something out.

Either people need to have way more sex or we need to bow down to robots a whole lot faster.

It's not abstinence that's the issue. It's the impracticality of having both children and a career there. Otherwise there would be no incentive for abstinence.

Japanese society has a problem with people overworking themselves. Overwork-related heart attacks are a leading cause of death in Japan, I believe. There doesn’t seem to be much in terms of ability to change that though. So it’ll just run its course.

[Saiwania]

Whatever Japan does, the answer must NOT be immigration. What I suggest instead is to go with this theory I call "Dynamic Shrinking." Simply let Japan's economy contract on its own. If the country becomes poorer, there should be a baby boom eventually. It is a fact that poorer people tend to have more children than rich people. That is partially why the poor are poor, because they make foolish decisions.

Japan was ruined in 1945, I think it is no coincidence that they had a fantastic recovery and golden age of sorts after that. You can only make the fastest gains when you start at rock bottom.

[Risottia]

It's not abstinence that's the issue. It's the impracticality of having both children and a career there. Otherwise there would be no incentive for abstinence.

"Either socialism or barbarianism" has become "either welfare state or extinction".

Well, it's a start.

[The Transhuman Union]

What about the pension system then? It would need more spending and would have a smaller base of people who contribute to it.

True, that is a valid short term issue. State pensions will likely have to be lowered to cope with such a demographic imbalance. You could likely come up with several of these short term issues. My point is that in the long term, as the elderly eventually pass away, the demographics will return to a natural, sustainable level, albeit with fewer people overall.

The ‘solution’ many countries are trying to implement, particularly in the west, is by opening the flood gates to immigrants. However, all this does is push the problem further down the line, whilst also putting additional strain on many aspects of society.

'As the elderly eventually pass away'. Correct me if I'm ignorant and missing the point here, but would be they replaced by more elderly people? Because of low birth rates?

[Benuty]

Whatever Japan does, the answer must NOT be immigration. What I suggest instead is to go with this theory I call "Dynamic Shrinking." Simply let Japan's economy contract on its own. If the country becomes poorer, there should be a baby boom eventually. It is a fact that poorer people tend to have more children than rich people. That is partially why the poor are poor, because they make foolish decisions.

Japan was ruined in 1945, I think it is no coincidence that they had a fantastic recovery and golden age of sorts after that. You can only make the fastest gains when you start at rock bottom.

You know I cannot read your post without putting it in Hondo's voice.

[Pacifica Founder]

Eh... Japanese elderly are far more likely to live with their children, reducing (I would guess) a not insignificant amount of expenses that the rest of the developed world pays not just in housing but also in daily in home nursing or such expenses. I'm sure it will be a problem for Japan, but I've also got to think that some of their more responsible habits will help them through it a lot more than in the West.

The bottom line for Japan and the rest of the developed world is we're going to have to transition the way we think about retirement. The plan of the last two or three generations that a portion of the money earned by those working today should go to take care of those who have retired isn't going to work with increasingly fewer people passing away before retiring, and increasingly more people spending whole years they could be working in school. Menials are going to have to fund the retirement of the Boomers, but they'd be stupid not to also be setting aside enough money that if the expected government pension was cut significantly or even totally removed they would still be okay.

When you think about a possible productive work life of 18-70 you're talking probably at most fiftyish years. Increasingly we are expected to spend at least four of those prime years in college. If we move to free-4-year school that will increase dramatically as you'll need at least a Masters or two in order to be a high performer. We always focus on old people not dying but the problem is equally that we ask young people to spend a lot of time not generating value.

[Aillyria]

Whatever Japan does, the answer must NOT be immigration. What I suggest instead is to go with this theory I call "Dynamic Shrinking." Simply let Japan's economy contract on its own. If the country becomes poorer, there should be a baby boom eventually. It is a fact that poorer people tend to have more children than rich people. That is partially why the poor are poor, because they make foolish decisions.

Japan was ruined in 1945, I think it is no coincidence that they had a fantastic recovery and golden age of sorts after that. You can only make the fastest gains when you start at rock bottom.

I don't think that would be beneficial, to allow the nation to decline in free fall to maybe bounce back. Some municipalities in Japan are already implemented policies to encourage and subsidize families to have children. If they make a nationwide policy it should work, to revitalize their workforce in coming years.

I agree that immigration would be a terrible idea though. Japan mustn't repeat the mistakes of the West.

[NERVUN]

Something's going to give sooner or later. Either a better work/life balance will have to be created to actually allow women to work and have a family + allow men to actually help with the family, or Japan's gonna have to admit that it already allows immigrants in and starts to actually process us better. Probably a combination of both.

As it is, the current system won't hold. There's not enough care for the elderly because the ideal was the family took care, well, there's not enough family members (Not to mention wanting to do so for years) to take care of all the elderly and for each who does... that's someone out of the working population. The job market is so understaffed right now that Japan's famed takubin system is in danger of collapsing and no one is actually sure if we have enough people to pull off the Olympics or not.

By-the-by, there IS immigration to Japan. We are here, so please take Japan out of your pure-land-no-filthy-immigrant dreams. There's what Japan says, and then there is reality. Reality shows that there's more immigrants than Japan admits too due to public pressure. But if you actually counted all foreigners in Japan not on a tourist visa, there's more than the often bandied 1.5% number.

[Snowman]

Japan can pay other countries to hunt weebs. I'll scour Facebook pages to find them for only 10 bucks a pop.

Edit: Poor choice of wording. I merely meant a humorous way of solving the aging population is "find" or "track", not kill, people who wish to be Japanese instead of their own nationality or citizenship, & have Japan take them.

[Darussalam]

Better important millions of low educated third world migrants as that will absolutely solve the problem.

Hong Kong and Singapore seems to work just fine doing that. At the very least, liberalizing high-skilled immigration while is not a catch-all solution won't be a terrible idea - although supply seems to pose as more of a problem as demand in this case.

[Greed and Death]

Something's going to give sooner or later. Either a better work/life balance will have to be created to actually allow women to work and have a family + allow men to actually help with the family, or Japan's gonna have to admit that it already allows immigrants in and starts to actually process us better. Probably a combination of both.

As it is, the current system won't hold. There's not enough care for the elderly because the ideal was the family took care, well, there's not enough family members (Not to mention wanting to do so for years) to take care of all the elderly and for each who does... that's someone out of the working population. The job market is so understaffed right now that Japan's famed takubin system is in danger of collapsing and no one is actually sure if we have enough people to pull off the Olympics or not.

By-the-by, there IS immigration to Japan. We are here, so please take Japan out of your pure-land-no-filthy-immigrant dreams. There's what Japan says, and then there is reality. Reality shows that there's more immigrants than Japan admits too due to public pressure. But if you actually counted all foreigners in Japan not on a tourist visa, there's more than the often bandied 1.5% number.

or just outlaw birth control and condoms.

[NERVUN]

Something's going to give sooner or later. Either a better work/life balance will have to be created to actually allow women to work and have a family + allow men to actually help with the family, or Japan's gonna have to admit that it already allows immigrants in and starts to actually process us better. Probably a combination of both.

As it is, the current system won't hold. There's not enough care for the elderly because the ideal was the family took care, well, there's not enough family members (Not to mention wanting to do so for years) to take care of all the elderly and for each who does... that's someone out of the working population. The job market is so understaffed right now that Japan's famed takubin system is in danger of collapsing and no one is actually sure if we have enough people to pull off the Olympics or not.

By-the-by, there IS immigration to Japan. We are here, so please take Japan out of your pure-land-no-filthy-immigrant dreams. There's what Japan says, and then there is reality. Reality shows that there's more immigrants than Japan admits too due to public pressure. But if you actually counted all foreigners in Japan not on a tourist visa, there's more than the often bandied 1.5% number.

or just outlaw birth control and condoms.

Japan already has an issue with rising STDs, let's not.