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India's Path to Superpower

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Tokora
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India's Path to Superpower

Postby Tokora » Wed Feb 14, 2018 10:12 am

With China propping up regimes and trying to turn the South China sea into its personal lake, the need for a counterbalance in Asia is greater than eve. The only problem is finding who.

Russia, the US, and Japan (especially Japan) all have a history of being no better than China and ASEAN is just an economic union with members already in China's pocket. That leaves India as the only hope against Chinese domination.

However, while India does look like the best candidate for a counterbalance, they have several issues to resolve before being able to take on China. The biggest ones being rampant poverty and lagging in technology.

What does India have to do, can it be done, how likely is it, and after all those are checked, how would their overturning of China's tyranny play out?

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Community Values
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Postby Community Values » Wed Feb 14, 2018 10:15 am

Apparently having a bad history bars countries from acting as a counterbalance to another country?
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Postby Internationalist Bastard » Wed Feb 14, 2018 10:18 am

Community Values wrote:Apparently having a bad history bars countries from acting as a counterbalance to another country?

What are you saying? The comment is too vague for me to reply
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Postby Community Values » Wed Feb 14, 2018 10:20 am

Internationalist Bastard wrote:
Community Values wrote:Apparently having a bad history bars countries from acting as a counterbalance to another country?

What are you saying? The comment is too vague for me to reply

Why can't the US and Japan be a counterbalance to China in Asia?
OP seems to think its because of "history of being no better than China"
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Postby Sovaal » Wed Feb 14, 2018 10:20 am

Tokora wrote:With China propping up regimes and trying to turn the South China sea into its personal lake, the need for a counterbalance in Asia is greater than eve. The only problem is finding who.

Russia, the US, and Japan (especially Japan) all have a history of being no better than China and ASEAN is just an economic union with members already in China's pocket. That leaves India as the only hope against Chinese domination.

However, while India does look like the best candidate for a counterbalance, they have several issues to resolve before being able to take on China. The biggest ones being rampant poverty and lagging in technology.

What does India have to do, can it be done, how likely is it, and after all those are checked, how would their overturning of China's tyranny play out?

Yah, India is hardly innocent either. And if they become a superpower expect the shitty crap that superpowers do to happen.

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Postby Internationalist Bastard » Wed Feb 14, 2018 10:21 am

As to OP, India is in the awkward position of becoming a world power, if they made their own country just a tad bit stronger. Poverty is a big thing that needs to get fixed
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Internationalist Bastard
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Postby Internationalist Bastard » Wed Feb 14, 2018 10:22 am

Sovaal wrote:
Tokora wrote:With China propping up regimes and trying to turn the South China sea into its personal lake, the need for a counterbalance in Asia is greater than eve. The only problem is finding who.

Russia, the US, and Japan (especially Japan) all have a history of being no better than China and ASEAN is just an economic union with members already in China's pocket. That leaves India as the only hope against Chinese domination.

However, while India does look like the best candidate for a counterbalance, they have several issues to resolve before being able to take on China. The biggest ones being rampant poverty and lagging in technology.

What does India have to do, can it be done, how likely is it, and after all those are checked, how would their overturning of China's tyranny play out?

Yah, India is hardly innocent either. And if they become a superpower expect the shitty crap that superpowers do to happen.

Yeah pretty much this
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Kramanica
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Postby Kramanica » Wed Feb 14, 2018 10:52 am

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Hurdergaryp
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Postby Hurdergaryp » Wed Feb 14, 2018 11:06 am


You seriously waited four years for a chance to use that article?

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Postby Kramanica » Wed Feb 14, 2018 11:09 am

Hurdergaryp wrote:

You seriously waited four years for a chance to use that article?

What? No. It's just relevant to the OP because India has a lot of problems that it needs to fix before it can become a superpower.
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Postby Hurdergaryp » Wed Feb 14, 2018 11:12 am

Kramanica wrote:
Hurdergaryp wrote:You seriously waited four years for a chance to use that article?

What? No. It's just relevant to the OP because India has a lot of problems that it needs to fix before it can become a superpower.

And even though access to proper toilets tends to do wonders for public health, there are also the almost ludicrous levels of corruption in India that need to be addressed.

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Kramanica
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Postby Kramanica » Wed Feb 14, 2018 11:14 am

Hurdergaryp wrote:
Kramanica wrote:What? No. It's just relevant to the OP because India has a lot of problems that it needs to fix before it can become a superpower.

And even though access to proper toilets tends to do wonders for public health, there are also the almost ludicrous levels of corruption in India that need to be addressed.

Says here it leads to rape and disease.

And yeah, corruption is a problem too.
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Postby Vistulange » Wed Feb 14, 2018 11:17 am

Oh boy. Here goes.
Tokora wrote:With China propping up regimes and trying to turn the South China sea into its personal lake, the need for a counterbalance in Asia is greater than eve. The only problem is finding who.
Alright, an opinion I could get behind...

Tokora wrote:Russia, the US, and Japan (especially Japan) all have a history of being no better than China

Unless said state is San Marino or Andorra, I doubt you'll find many states which are "better", whatever normative parameters you are using for such a blanket statement.

Tokora wrote:ASEAN is just an economic union with members already in China's pocket.

[citation needed], like how the European Union is in Germany's and Führer und Reichskanzler Merkel's pocket.
Tokora wrote:That leaves India as the only hope against Chinese domination.

Fair enough, if supported adequately.
Tokora wrote:However, while India does look like the best candidate for a counterbalance, they have several issues to resolve before being able to take on China. The biggest ones being rampant poverty and lagging in technology.

Again, fair enough.
Tokora wrote:What does India have to do, can it be done, how likely is it, and after all those are checked, how would their overturning of China's tyranny play out?

How likely? As likely as the United States falling from its position of superpower.
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The Transhuman Union
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Postby The Transhuman Union » Wed Feb 14, 2018 11:21 am

Vistulange wrote:How likely? As likely as the United States falling from its position of superpower.


So, pretty likely?
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Vistulange
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Postby Vistulange » Wed Feb 14, 2018 11:31 am

The Transhuman Union wrote:
Vistulange wrote:How likely? As likely as the United States falling from its position of superpower.


So, pretty likely?

I would say no, not very likely, but to accurately analyse that "possibility", we would first need to answer some very fundamental questions, such as "what defines a superpower?", and maybe even "what is power?". Power can be, of course, construed as "capability of men to dominate other men", but this itself is a highly broad definition. For example, would American cultural influence over the world in the form of Hollywood and American films be considered power? Or is power solely measured through military means? The latter, truthfully, is mostly a relic of the Cold War, but still has defenders.

Therefore, I would argue - but not insist - that no, the United States is not losing its position as a superpower anytime soon, and almost certainly not in our lifetimes. What is happening is that China and arguably Russia are catching up (but I wouldn't hold my breath on Russia), as opposed to the United States losing power. Of course, it can be argued that a decrease in the relative power levels is losing power, but as the filthy constructivist I am, I am not the person to argue that.

Perhaps the world will become multipolar, as it used to be in the 19th and early 20th centuries. I seriously doubt it will remain unipolar, and already, the unipolarity of the system is shaking seriously, and some would even consider it toppled. The distinction is important, however, because there will not be an unipolar world: China will not replace the United States as the global superpower, but instead be a superpower itself, alongside the US.

I'm intentionally refraining from making predictions: One, I have neither the time nor resources to research for this topic; two, international relations scholars, academics and so on are notoriously bad at predicting the future. Might as well not do that.
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Postby Ostroeuropa » Wed Feb 14, 2018 11:39 am

I'd say the issue is more that India has no strategic interests beyond defense of its borders, and arguably securing petroleum, something the US is currently doing on their behalf. As a consequence they have no interest in power projection or a large navy and army.
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Postby Tinhampton » Wed Feb 14, 2018 11:59 am

Tokora wrote:What does India have to do
"Look, if you agree to reintegrate into the crown, then Sachin Tendulkar can finally get the knighthood he deserves..." :P

Tokora wrote:can it be done
The last time I checked, Bob the Builder was not in support of this, so no.

Tokora wrote:how likely is it
About as likely as Mike Atherton coming out of retirement.

Tokora wrote:and after all those are checked, how would their overturning of China's tyranny play out?
Either in integration into Beijing's Belt and Road scheme, or with New Delhi and Mumbai kissing a couple of Pakistani nukes.
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Postby Kramanica » Wed Feb 14, 2018 12:00 pm

Ostroeuropa wrote:I'd say the issue is more that India has no strategic interests beyond defense of its borders, and arguably securing petroleum, something the US is currently doing on their behalf. As a consequence they have no interest in power projection or a large navy and army.

*Pakistan looms ominously*
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Postby Risottia » Wed Feb 14, 2018 12:01 pm

Tokora wrote:hat leaves India as the only hope against Chinese domination.


Then you're fucked. Better start learning Mandarin.
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Postby Rupudska » Wed Feb 14, 2018 12:04 pm

Risottia wrote:
Tokora wrote:hat leaves India as the only hope against Chinese domination.


Then you're fucked. Better start learning Mandarin.


Not really. China actually can't do much against India would it ever come to wars due to geographic regions. The problem is that India is such an incredible mess that it'd probably lose anyway.
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Postby Risottia » Wed Feb 14, 2018 12:09 pm

Rupudska wrote:
Risottia wrote:
Then you're fucked. Better start learning Mandarin.


Not really. China actually can't do much against India would it ever come to wars due to geographic regions.The problem is that India is such an incredible mess that it'd probably lose anyway.


That's exactly what I meant.
Last edited by Risottia on Wed Feb 14, 2018 12:09 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Postby Vistulange » Wed Feb 14, 2018 12:10 pm

Risottia wrote:
Rupudska wrote:
Not really. China actually can't do much against India would it ever come to wars due to geographic regions.The problem is that India is such an incredible mess that it'd probably lose anyway.


That's exactly what I meant.

Teach us Mandarin, Risottia-sensei.
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Postby Ostroeuropa » Wed Feb 14, 2018 12:37 pm

Kramanica wrote:
Ostroeuropa wrote:I'd say the issue is more that India has no strategic interests beyond defense of its borders, and arguably securing petroleum, something the US is currently doing on their behalf. As a consequence they have no interest in power projection or a large navy and army.

*Pakistan looms ominously*


Doesn't require the capacity for power projection, and can't fight its way out of a paper bag. Only its nuclear capacity keeps it a threat, and that is countered by Indias own.

India won't be a Superpower because it has no need for power projection capabilities. As a consequence it won't develop them, and as a consequence of that, most countries don't need to wonder about what India thinks while conducting their foreign policy with other nations, military policies, etc.

Economically it might eventually have extremely substantial clout, but that'd make it more akin to Germany or Japan, not a Superpower akin to the US, Soviets, or UK at its height.
Last edited by Ostroeuropa on Wed Feb 14, 2018 12:39 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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Postby Internationalist Bastard » Wed Feb 14, 2018 12:41 pm

Vistulange wrote:
Risottia wrote:
That's exactly what I meant.

Teach us Mandarin, Risottia-sensei.

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Postby Sanctissima » Wed Feb 14, 2018 12:45 pm

Unlikely to occur until they resolve their pretty substantial internal political problems. The administrative sub-structure of India is a complete and utter mess, so before the status of international superpower is even a viable option for India they'd need to get their various states and territories in line.

The other major problem would be China, which absolutely does not want India to get its shit together, since that would pose a major threat to their own ambitions abroad. To that end, they'll already buddied up with Pakistan, and are in the process of developing considerable ties in Southeast Asia. So India would also need to contend with the ambitions of the Chinese Dragon in its own backyard before pursuing grander designs further abroad.

So all in all, no, India won't become a superpower anytime soon.

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