Germany unable to form a coalition: coming closer to a snap

[Trumptonium]

After a national election on September 24th gave Angela Merkel's Christian Union (CDU/CSU) a victory with a weakened vote share, the Chancellor has been exploring a three-way coalition with the Green party and the Free Democrats (FDP). This coalition formation, nicknamed the Jamaica Coalition, has never before been tried at the national level.

However, this coalition is proving harder to force into reality than previously imagined. Germany is accustomed to coalitions, having experienced them for most of their post-war history, however they're normally agreed on within four to five weeks. This election is already the third slowest (65 - 2005, 86 - 2013) in German history to result in a government (53 days) and yet there's no end in sight, even though at this point the 2005 coalition was broadly agreed upon bar formalities.

It seems the main sticking points that the CDU/CSU, FDP and the Greens cannot agree on boil down to twhree issues: immigration, the eurozone and the environment. Also the three most important issues for the respective parties.

The CDU/CSU has obviously lost over 60 seats to the AfD, or 10% of the entire Parliament ceded. Merkel has made several promises on cutting back on immigration, particularly that seen as burdensome, to prevent an even larger bleeding to AfD. However, this isn't going to work with the two most pro-immigration parties in the German political scene, with FDP vehemently opposing cutting immigration in a way that will hurt students or the economy and the Greens against any form of discrimination against particular groups of immigrants, as well as basically any cuts at all, given that they ran on a manifesto of freer movement.

The Greens have seen themselves as empowered and have several new demands on the environment, not just domestically but forcing the government to make moves to push environmental agenda on other countries, including Eastern European countries which have no pro-environmental factions but are the hardest polluters. Rumours are abound that the Greens want to shut down nuclear plants as well and put Germany either fully on or on the route to 100% renewable energy by the end of the parliament .. i.e. a massive investment.

The FDP have long been running on a sort of anti-eurozone campaign. Not quite leaving the Euro like AfD wants, but certainly improving governance in the Eurozone and preventing other countries from burdening Germany with their shit policies then having Germany bail them out. Crucially, they demand that Germany declares it will no longer participate in European bailouts.

More importantly, Macron has been making heavy moves towards an extreme level of European integration by formally suggesting a Joint European Budget, otherwise moving towards an American style of governance with a federal budget and drastically smaller state budgets for discretionary spending. Merkel agreed to the plan in early June ... but the FDP want to mothball it completely, under fears that Germany will merely fund the rest of Europe.

A leaked coalition talk memo reads:

”“The following compromise proposal could not be reached: There is a need for a capacity to buffer extraordinary, unpredictable economic emergency situations which are beyond the control of individual member states...,”

FDP position: “We do not support a fiscal capacity in order to buffer the effects of economic shocks.”

Daniel Günther, Minister President of Schleswig-Holstein, said in an interview with Bild on Monday that a snap election would be a "catastrophe" for the country. This proves further that the idea of a snap election is moving even further up the importance chain.

Since the election, Die Linke and AfD moved up by 1% in the polls each, while Greens and CDU are down 1% each. Does not spell well for a snap election either.

Party leaders meet today for a major coalition talk. Failure means, likely, no government before new year.

https://www.thelocal.de/20171106/a-snap ... he-country
http://www.reuters.com/article/us-germa ... SKBN1DF1CV
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article ... ition.html

[Empire of Narnia]

Germany is a failed state. Not because it is poor, but because the birth of Germany has brought untold death and pain upon the world. I believe Satan himself played a part in the creation of the German state. Ideally Germany should be broken up with German states becoming their own countries, or the Holy Roman Empire should be reformed.

We are seeing it now when the forces of hate are becoming more powerful in Germany, what happened before will happen again.

[Nouveau Yathrib]

While I applaud the Greens' efforts to expand renewable energy, I'm skeptical of their anti-nuclear stances since it's encouraged the replacement of nuclear power plants with coal and natural gas. Hopefully being in a coalition with the CDU/CSU and FDP will force them to be more pragmatic in their environmental goals.

[Seredina]

Germany is a failed state. Not because it is poor, but because the birth of Germany has brought untold death and pain upon the world. I believe Satan himself played a part in the creation of the German state. Ideally Germany should be broken up with German states becoming their own countries, or the Holy Roman Empire should be reformed.

We are seeing it now when the forces of hate are becoming more powerful in Germany, what happened before will happen again.

Not sure if this is satire or serious but it’s actually pretty accurate. Every time Germany has a national identity crisis, Europe suffers. It’s been this way for hundreds of years now. It’s proof positive that, just because areas speak the same language, doesn’t mean they’ll work cohesively as a nation-state.

Personally, I don’t think we’re anywhere near snap election territory yet. I think we’re in the early stages of smaller potential partners testing their strength but ultimately they’ll need to make concessions as well as the CDU/CSU.

[Tesernia]

Personally, I hope we do get a snap election. Either because they can't come to an agreement, or when the next big issue rips apart the Jamaica coalition. Ideally, the CDU and SPD get burned so bad they're forced to go back to representing the German people again.

Germany is a failed state. Not because it is poor, but because the birth of Germany has brought untold death and pain upon the world. I believe Satan himself played a part in the creation of the German state. Ideally Germany should be broken up with German states becoming their own countries, or the Holy Roman Empire should be reformed.

We are seeing it now when the forces of hate are becoming more powerful in Germany, what happened before will happen again.

Not sure if this is satire or serious but it’s actually pretty accurate. Every time Germany has a national identity crisis, Europe suffers. It’s been this way for hundreds of years now. It’s proof positive that, just because areas speak the same language, doesn’t mean they’ll work cohesively as a nation-state.

Personally, I don’t think we’re anywhere near snap election territory yet. I think we’re in the early stages of smaller potential partners testing their strength but ultimately they’ll need to make concessions as well as the CDU/CSU.

Turns out that when your country is at the heart of Europe, you can't twitch without hitting anything around you.

[Crockerland]

Guess I have to root for CDU-CSU-A90-FDP coalition since at least there's a few smart people in there like Horst Seehofer and Christian Lindner. Would be nice if they didn't need Merkel and Alliance 90 (the so-called "Greens") though.

[Pope Joan]

It seems to be true all over the world; many voters are fed up and just voting out of negativism. There is no uniting vision any more

[The Parkus Empire]

Macron has been making heavy moves towards an extreme level of European integration by formally suggesting a Joint European Budget, otherwise moving towards an American style of governance with a federal budget and drastically smaller state budgets for discretionary spending. Merkel agreed to the plan in early June

Germany, Germany, Germany. Oh, Germany.

[Empire of Narnia]

Macron has been making heavy moves towards an extreme level of European integration by formally suggesting a Joint European Budget, otherwise moving towards an American style of governance with a federal budget and drastically smaller state budgets for discretionary spending. Merkel agreed to the plan in early June

Germany, Germany, Germany. Oh, Germany.

They're going for round three. It won't work.

[Aellex]

Macron has been making heavy moves towards an extreme level of European integration by formally suggesting a Joint European Budget, otherwise moving towards an American style of governance with a federal budget and drastically smaller state budgets for discretionary spending. Merkel agreed to the plan in early June

Germany, Germany, Germany. Oh, Germany.

I'd rather they mothball it indeed, tho for different reasons.

[Minoa]

Too soon to call.

[Kaschen]

Do you guys know what you are talking about?

First, the phase out of nuclear power is already agreed to by Merkel before the election. Failure to form a coalition is not that bad, and even that hasn't happened yet. Only the Greens have soured on it.

Most of this is posturing that is part of the negotiations. Linder wants to show he is independent and everyone wants to look like they are playing hardball.

There are several options besides a snap election. One would be a minority government. Another, a grand coalition and the least likely, a coalition with the AFD.

That last one isn't happening. The most popular option remains Jamaica.

Germany is hardly a failed state. Pretty much everything here runs smoothly. Sure, some things could be improved, but a failed state.

A minority government would be interesting, although it would probably not last 4 years.

[Ostroeuropa]

This is positive imo. Or maybe negative.
The broad left coalition is the only viable government now in future elections, or a right wing government inclusive of alternative for deutchland.

Both would address the issues of neoliberal capitalism and the sociocultural issues it causes. Even if there is a string of governments that cannot form a coalition, eventually, voters for merkels party will have to accept that people have had enough of the internationalist right wing, and will either go for AFD, or the SPD.

What CDUs need to realize is that the same type of red line appears to exist for many on the left with them that there is for AFD, a coallition will not form without major concessions.

If germanies parties represent their voters well, that will be the case.

What's notable is that the greens are going apeshit over merkels migrant policy being too nationalist, but have signaled they are willing to soften their environmentalism if it would help a coalition form. I expect this will cost them voters.

What's worse is, they have to know Merkel cannot possibly soften her stance on migrants, or it will further fuel AFD and collapse her voter base.

For that reason, I suspect a coalition is impossible, because the greens aren't acting sensibly, are demanding the impossible, and advancing an agenda different to their core one for unknown reasons.


If CDU softens, it will collapse.
If it remains as is, it will be locked out of government.
The greens and FDP are engaging in brinkmanship that may propel AFD into being a major party, since CDU voters who are convinced to remain by Merkels moderate migrant policy might see the writing on the wall and realize that the only party capable of forming a majority that will restrict migration is AFD.

If AFD becomes the major and CDU the minor, the latter will probably accept a deal. But their refusal to do so while AFD remains minor means they cannot form majorities without conceding on the migration issue to the left. So I can only conclude CDUs attempt to unite people behind a compromise has failed, and the greens/fpd and Afd remain determined to polarize the issue.

So basically the only victors here are going to be the AFD, and the greens/fpd, and polarization will go further.

UNLESS The SPD puts out a slightly less moderate slightly more left version of Merkels migrant reforms, but not as far as the greens/fpd want.

I suspect it's cynical opportunism causing the Greens and FPD to behave this way, and they're engaging in the progressive establishment sureity and smugness that "Nobody else will go to AFD, so they have to just put up with our demands." that propelled Trump and Brexit to happen.

A left wing government would invest in the populace and reduce the need for migrants.
A right wing nationalist one would just stop them coming.

The left is preferable, if it is actually socially democratic and not merely Clintonite/Blairite.
But what no longer seems electorally viable is a right wing open doors policy. That seems positive to me.

[Dumb Ideologies]

The need for the support of the silly greenies is a big problem. Merkel either has to go to another election and hope AfD in-fighting means they lose support and some voters come back to improve her coalition options, or openly fail to deliver harder immigration policy and hope the issue dies down, and the economy does well.

Immigration policy in Germany has been a mess, but in her position I'd play it safe, sell out my tougher tone, compromise on what FDP want as well, and squat in power until any point in my term where my poll ratings creep upwards and AfD is squabbling. Then break the coalition, claim the compromises were "just too much" and hold an election where I win more seats.

[Kaschen]

This is positive imo. Or maybe negative.
The broad left coalition is the only viable government now in future elections, or a right wing government inclusive of alternative for deutchland.

Both would address the issues of neoliberal capitalism and the sociocultural issues it causes. Even if there is a string of governments that cannot form a coalition, eventually, voters for merkels party will have to accept that people have had enough of the internationalist right wing, and will either go for AFD, or the SPD.

What CDUs need to realize is that the same type of red line appears to exist for many on the left with them that there is for AFD, a coallition will not form without major concessions.

If germanies parties represent their voters well, that will be the case.

What's notable is that the greens are going apeshit over merkels migrant policy being too nationalist, but have signaled they are willing to soften their environmentalism if it would help a coalition form. I expect this will cost them voters.

What's worse is, they have to know Merkel cannot possibly soften her stance on migrants, or it will further fuel AFD and collapse her voter base.

For that reason, I suspect a coalition is impossible, because the greens aren't acting sensibly, are demanding the impossible, and advancing an agenda different to their core one for unknown reasons.


If CDU softens, it will collapse.
If it remains as is, it will be locked out of government.
The greens and FDP are engaging in brinkmanship that may propel AFD into being a major party, since CDU voters who are convinced to remain by Merkels moderate migrant policy might see the writing on the wall and realize that the only party capable of forming a majority that will restrict migration is AFD.

If AFD becomes the major and CDU the minor, the latter will probably accept a deal. But their refusal to do so while AFD remains minor means they cannot form majorities without conceding on the migration issue to the left. So I can only conclude CDUs attempt to unite people behind a compromise has failed, and the greens/fpd and Afd remain determined to polarize the issue.

So basically the only victors here are going to be the AFD, and the greens/fpd, and polarization will go further.

UNLESS The SPD puts out a slightly less moderate slightly more left version of Merkels migrant reforms, but not as far as the greens/fpd want.

I suspect it's cynical opportunism causing the Greens and FPD to behave this way, and they're engaging in the progressive establishment sureity and smugness that "Nobody else will go to AFD, so they have to just put up with our demands." that propelled Trump and Brexit to happen.

A left wing government would invest in the populace and reduce the need for migrants.
A right wing nationalist one would just stop them coming.

The left is preferable, if it is actually socially democratic and not merely Clintonite/Blairite.
But what no longer seems electorally viable is a right wing open doors policy. That seems positive to me.

You seem reasonably informed about German politics, but you are over looking some important facts.

The CDU is still the largest party. The Union will change before it will disappear. Merkel is still relatively popular. It would take another election for a red red green coalition.

The SPD also lost voters to the AfD. They remain smaller than the CDU.

If you want to look for precedence elsewhere, I would look towards Spain and Austria. Trump and Brexit were binary choices, and are both deeply unpopular in Germany.

Spain recently had snap elections following a failure r to form a government, Austria recently shifted to the right.

Either the Union eats the AfD by moving to the right, or the AfD becomes an acceptable coalition partner. Neither of these will happen under Merkel.

Until then Jamaica is the only way forward.

The main question is how many economic bad, but environmentally good policies can the Greens get, and how tough on immigration can the CDU get.

The main barrier to restricting the refugees is the constitution. Asylum is a constitutional right in Germany.

[Trumptonium]

Do you guys know what you are talking about?

First, the phase out of nuclear power is already agreed to by Merkel before the election.

Lindner does not want it and neither does the core of CDU.

Failure to form a coalition is not that bad,

It objectively is. Less policies and budgets become nigh impossible to pass. See how fucked up the budget in Spain is due to a minority government.

[Minoa]

Only when AfD falls below 5%, is when I know the threat of the far right is under control in Germany: we cannot risk going back to 1933 at even the slightest.

[Trumptonium]

The need for the support of the silly greenies is a big problem. Merkel either has to go to another election and hope AfD in-fighting means they lose support and some voters come back to improve her coalition options, or openly fail to deliver harder immigration policy and hope the issue dies down, and the economy does well.

Interestingly, unlike UKIP, the AfD isn't falling because of infighting.

They've risen since the election, even though they've basically split as a party in the Bundestag.

[Aellex]

Only when AfD falls below 5%, is when I know the threat of the far right is under control in Germany: we cannot risk going back to 1933 at even the slightest.

Please, it's not like the two are anything alike.
Anyway, Germany's spirit has been broken already so even if they were, there would be nothing to be afraid of.

[Azurius]

While I applaud the Greens' efforts to expand renewable energy, I'm skeptical of their anti-nuclear stances since it's encouraged the replacement of nuclear power plants with coal and natural gas. Hopefully being in a coalition with the CDU/CSU and FDP will force them to be more pragmatic in their environmental goals.

The pragmatic thing to do would actually be going for renewable energies. Norway showed the world that it is indeed possible. For reference: 98% of Norways energy is entirely renewable, their electricity price per KWH is pretty much the lowest in Europe, which is also one of the reason they have the biggest per capita usage of electricity too, using up a whopping 8.000KW per year per capita, the German average is 2.000KW per year per capita for example.

If Norway can do it with such a high per capita waste of electricity then Germany can too. Besides, it would create between 75.000 to 150.000 more jobs(even after all coal, gas and nuclear power plants have been shut down entirely). Jobs we definitely need at the moment. Just as we cannot afford to endlessly pollute either. This years heavy floods have finally taught a lesson to some people how important the issue of environment actually is, as they have caused massive damages this year. Effectively throwing back our plans of economic growth somewhat. And if we don´t stop it will only get worse.

Hence for the first time in years I actually agree with the greens. We need massive renewable energy and soon, but not enough, we should really start forcing more sustainable policies on other countries in Europe. As it is of no use if we go renewable when the rest of Europe keeps polluting, that shit will come back to us once again too.

[Vernein]

The Kaiser should be brought back.

[Azurius]

The need for the support of the silly greenies is a big problem. Merkel either has to go to another election and hope AfD in-fighting means they lose support and some voters come back to improve her coalition options, or openly fail to deliver harder immigration policy and hope the issue dies down, and the economy does well.

Interestingly, unlike UKIP, the AfD isn't falling because of infighting.

They've risen since the election, even though they've basically split as a party in the Bundestag.

Not at the moment true. However, I remember well that last election the AfD as a party nearly collapsed in itself due to exactly said infights, but they somehow managed to keep themselves on their feet and this time actually gain seats in parliament too. However, we just recently had another small infight that caused Frauke Petry a very prominent AfD figure to actually leave the AfD for good.

So it would appear these infights are not entirely over yet. Only the future will tell how the AfD will deal with these current infights.

[Ostroeuropa]

This is positive imo. Or maybe negative.
The broad left coalition is the only viable government now in future elections, or a right wing government inclusive of alternative for deutchland.

Both would address the issues of neoliberal capitalism and the sociocultural issues it causes. Even if there is a string of governments that cannot form a coalition, eventually, voters for merkels party will have to accept that people have had enough of the internationalist right wing, and will either go for AFD, or the SPD.

What CDUs need to realize is that the same type of red line appears to exist for many on the left with them that there is for AFD, a coallition will not form without major concessions.

If germanies parties represent their voters well, that will be the case.

What's notable is that the greens are going apeshit over merkels migrant policy being too nationalist, but have signaled they are willing to soften their environmentalism if it would help a coalition form. I expect this will cost them voters.

What's worse is, they have to know Merkel cannot possibly soften her stance on migrants, or it will further fuel AFD and collapse her voter base.

For that reason, I suspect a coalition is impossible, because the greens aren't acting sensibly, are demanding the impossible, and advancing an agenda different to their core one for unknown reasons.


If CDU softens, it will collapse.
If it remains as is, it will be locked out of government.
The greens and FDP are engaging in brinkmanship that may propel AFD into being a major party, since CDU voters who are convinced to remain by Merkels moderate migrant policy might see the writing on the wall and realize that the only party capable of forming a majority that will restrict migration is AFD.

If AFD becomes the major and CDU the minor, the latter will probably accept a deal. But their refusal to do so while AFD remains minor means they cannot form majorities without conceding on the migration issue to the left. So I can only conclude CDUs attempt to unite people behind a compromise has failed, and the greens/fpd and Afd remain determined to polarize the issue.

So basically the only victors here are going to be the AFD, and the greens/fpd, and polarization will go further.

UNLESS The SPD puts out a slightly less moderate slightly more left version of Merkels migrant reforms, but not as far as the greens/fpd want.

I suspect it's cynical opportunism causing the Greens and FPD to behave this way, and they're engaging in the progressive establishment sureity and smugness that "Nobody else will go to AFD, so they have to just put up with our demands." that propelled Trump and Brexit to happen.

A left wing government would invest in the populace and reduce the need for migrants.
A right wing nationalist one would just stop them coming.

The left is preferable, if it is actually socially democratic and not merely Clintonite/Blairite.
But what no longer seems electorally viable is a right wing open doors policy. That seems positive to me.

You seem reasonably informed about German politics, but you are over looking some important facts.

The CDU is still the largest party. The Union will change before it will disappear. Merkel is still relatively popular. It would take another election for a red red green coalition.

The SPD also lost voters to the AfD. They remain smaller than the CDU.

If you want to look for precedence elsewhere, I would look towards Spain and Austria. Trump and Brexit were binary choices, and are both deeply unpopular in Germany.

Spain recently had snap elections following a failure r to form a government, Austria recently shifted to the right.

Either the Union eats the AfD by moving to the right, or the AfD becomes an acceptable coalition partner. Neither of these will happen under Merkel.

Until then Jamaica is the only way forward.

The main question is how many economic bad, but environmentally good policies can the Greens get, and how tough on immigration can the CDU get.

The main barrier to restricting the refugees is the constitution. Asylum is a constitutional right in Germany.

My analysis is based on the government being unable to form a coalition and a snap election occurring as a result at some point in the future.
Merkel could try and govern as a minority, and then it's a case of her political acumen and deal making skills. If she seems weak and unable to govern as a minority and get through bills, it could end up worse for CDU than if she just immediately called an election upon failure to form a coalition.
If she pulls it off, then she pulls it off and the status quo can continue for as long as the CDU can manage to wrangle things on an issue by issue basis, but that'll only last for so long, (Even if "So long" turns out to be another 2 terms) and so eventually, something will have to shift imo.

I don't think SPD will pass up the opportunity by entering coalition with CDU, unless AFD becomes a much more potent and large party, then we might see all parties band against them.

So far as I can see it, that does mean that either the left wing coalitions will start taking office more as voters become tired of minority and weak CDU governments (I'd wager Merkel might be able to handle it and has the necessary political clout to govern as a minority, but she can't last forever.), the CDU will eat the AFD, or the AFD will be accepted, or CDU will concede on migration to the greens and collapse in support, propelling the AFD forward.

[Aellex]

While I applaud the Greens' efforts to expand renewable energy, I'm skeptical of their anti-nuclear stances since it's encouraged the replacement of nuclear power plants with coal and natural gas. Hopefully being in a coalition with the CDU/CSU and FDP will force them to be more pragmatic in their environmental goals.

The pragmatic thing to do would actually be going for renewable energies. Norway showed the world that it is indeed possible. For reference: 98% of Norways energy is entirely renewable, their electricity price per KWH is pretty much the lowest in Europe, which is also one of the reason they have the biggest per capita usage of electricity too, using up a whopping 8.000KW per year per capita, the German average is 2.000KW per year per capita for example.

If Norway can do it with such a high per capita waste of electricity then Germany can too. Besides, it would create between 75.000 to 150.000 more jobs(even after all coal, gas and nuclear power plants have been shut down entirely). Jobs we definitely need at the moment. Just as we cannot afford to endlessly pollute either. This years heavy floods have finally taught a lesson to some people how important the issue of environment actually is, as they have caused massive damages this year. Effectively throwing back our plans of economic growth somewhat. And if we don´t stop it will only get worse.

Hence for the first time in years I actually agree with the greens. We need massive renewable energy and soon, but not enough, we should really start forcing more sustainable policies on other countries in Europe. As it is of no use if we go renewable when the rest of Europe keeps polluting, that shit will come back to us once again too.

Except solutions that work for countries with less than a tenth of your population and a fourth of their total size being coast-lines are unlikely to be viable for you.
Again, if you want cheap and clean energy, switch to nuclear. It's the best solution.

[Dooom35796821595]

While I applaud the Greens' efforts to expand renewable energy, I'm skeptical of their anti-nuclear stances since it's encouraged the replacement of nuclear power plants with coal and natural gas. Hopefully being in a coalition with the CDU/CSU and FDP will force them to be more pragmatic in their environmental goals.

The pragmatic thing to do would actually be going for renewable energies. Norway showed the world that it is indeed possible. For reference: 98% of Norways energy is entirely renewable, their electricity price per KWH is pretty much the lowest in Europe, which is also one of the reason they have the biggest per capita usage of electricity too, using up a whopping 8.000KW per year per capita, the German average is 2.000KW per year per capita for example.

If Norway can do it with such a high per capita waste of electricity then Germany can too. Besides, it would create between 75.000 to 150.000 more jobs(even after all coal, gas and nuclear power plants have been shut down entirely). Jobs we definitely need at the moment. Just as we cannot afford to endlessly pollute either. This years heavy floods have finally taught a lesson to some people how important the issue of environment actually is, as they have caused massive damages this year. Effectively throwing back our plans of economic growth somewhat. And if we don´t stop it will only get worse.

Hence for the first time in years I actually agree with the greens. We need massive renewable energy and soon, but not enough, we should really start forcing more sustainable policies on other countries in Europe. As it is of no use if we go renewable when the rest of Europe keeps polluting, that shit will come back to us once again too.

Because Germany enforcing its will on Europe has never gone badly in the past...

As societies advance, they need more and more power, and "renewable" power is both limited and low energy density. Fission and eventually Fusion are important power sources that need to be used/developed.