Austrian election 2017

[Vecherd]

The Austrian election is at the 15th of October and it has turned out to be quite interesting in many ways. I have heard surprisingly little about it and I think its relatively surprising considering how much the media has been discussing the alt-right, right-wing populism and the decline of social democracy in Europe. The new leader of the conservative Austrian People's Party Sebastian Kurz has energized the party leading to them topping the polls, and he has taken the party in a clear hardline right-wing direction. Regarding immigration and EU policy they have in many ways copied the policies of the far-right FPÖ(the Austrian Freedom Party). Meanwhile the SPÖ(Austrian Labour Party) has been failing at materialising on the good economy under their grand coalition with ÖVP and have also creeped towards the right.

So besides the question about who you support I also wonder if any of you have any thoughts about Austria joining the Visegard countries as a national democracy instead of a liberal democracy and Sebastian Kurz(if you do not know who he is I urge you to read up on him, he is 31 years old and a political genius or wünderkinder, interesting person) becoming a new VIktor Orban?

I have tried to make some somewhat unbiased ideological pin pointers for the different parties

SPÖ social democracy, pro-Europeanism
ÖVP liberal conservatism, christian democracy, euroskeptics control the party but traditionally pro-EU
FPÖ Austrian nationalism, right-wing populism, europskepticism
Die Grünen Enviromentalism, social democracy/democratic socialism, pro-Europeanism
NEOS liberalism, classical liberal and social liberal factions respectively, mainly pro-EU
PILZ environmentalism, populism

Here is a good overview of the road to the election and the campaign. Provided by Collatis

[Vecherd]

The 15 day average for polling is:

ÖVP - 33.1%
FPÖ - 25.5%
SPÖ - 24.4%
NEOS - 5.1%
Die Grünen - 5.0%
PILZ - 4.4%
Others - 2.5%

[Fauxia]

I support the FPO, they are probably the best

[Vecherd]

I support the FPO, they are probably the best, and as they are currently #1 of the good Parties, certainly.

They have a lot of different policies and I do think most people could agree with a few of their policies, but what do you mean "the good parties"? As it stands now ÖVP is polling quite a bit higher and they are probably the closest party to FPÖ ideologically now.

[Greater Eireann]

FPÖ.

[Nordisk Rike]

Definitely the Austrian Freedom Party.

[Vecherd]

Definitely the Austrian Freedom Party.

Heh your picture gives it away, Norwegian by any chance?

[The Liberated Territories]

None of these parties particularly appeal to me, but NEOs would be the least bad option.

[Larin]

I'm neutral, we will see who wins. But i honestly think if FPÖ wins, shit will break out in Austria, like what happened in USA after Trump won

[Vecherd]

None of these parties particularly appeal to me, but NEOs would be the least bad option.

Yeah for a libertarian I think it would be hard to find a good party, since NEOS is quite moderate and pro-EU its not a home for a more "purist libertarian" there, and FPÖ has purged their libertarian faction decades ago.

[The Liberated Territories]

None of these parties particularly appeal to me, but NEOs would be the least bad option.

Yeah for a libertarian I think it would be hard to find a good party, since NEOS is quite moderate and pro-EU its not a home for a more "purist libertarian" there, and FPÖ has purged their libertarian faction decades ago.

Ironic they still call themselves the Freedom Party, as they don't particularly seem committed to it.

[Collatis]

This is a good overview of the election so far.

Additionally, an ÖVP official has been accused of attempted bribery by an SPÖ official.

[Vecherd]

I'm neutral, we will see who wins. But i honestly think if FPÖ wins, shit will break out in Austria, like what happened in USA after Trump won

Oh I dont think it will be extremely bad, they have been a coalition earlier and even if they have started dabbling with Identitarian ideas they are still a democratic party. I think a lot depends on what Kurz does though because a ÖVP-FPÖ coalition seems like the most likely result.

[Vecherd]

Yeah for a libertarian I think it would be hard to find a good party, since NEOS is quite moderate and pro-EU its not a home for a more "purist libertarian" there, and FPÖ has purged their libertarian faction decades ago.

Ironic they still call themselves the Freedom Party, as they don't particularly seem committed to it.

Hehe yeah a lot of parties have nonsense names.. When they were named ages ago they were quite anti-statist though

[Vecherd]

This is a good overview of the election so far.

Additionally, an ÖVP official has been accused of attempted bribery by an SPÖ official.

If you dont mind I will add your link to the top post because that is a good overlook. For the bribery scandal that could certainly be bad for Kurz and his crew but it seems to be drowned in Silberstein controversy in most of the big newspapers in Austria, but if that materialises as well I guess FPÖ would have a boost as both GroKo parties have issues.

[Collatis]

This is a good overview of the election so far.

Additionally, an ÖVP official has been accused of attempted bribery by an SPÖ official.

If you dont mind I will add your link to the top post because that is a good overlook. For the bribery scandal that could certainly be bad for Kurz and his crew but it seems to be drowned in Silberstein controversy in most of the big newspapers in Austria, but if that materialises as well I guess FPÖ would have a boost as both GroKo parties have issues.

So far it's pretty unclear if the allegation is legitimate, as far as I can tell. It is coming from an opposing party, after all. But yeah, the Silberstein controversy has doubly fucked over the SPÖ. Quite frankly, I think it's impressive that they're still doing as well as they are in the polls.

[Vecherd]

So far it's pretty unclear if the allegation is legitimate, as far as I can tell. It is coming from an opposing party, after all. But yeah, the Silberstein controversy has doubly fucked over the SPÖ. Quite frankly, I think it's impressive that they're still doing as well as they are in the polls.

Oh yeah for sure, the Austrian political system is notoriously stable, so a 2% fall for the SPÖ(22% to 24%) in the latest poll is actually quite bad considering how low 24% is to start with.

[Trumptonium]

FPO. The only real choice for Austria.

I also support FPO's attempt to join the Visegrad Group.

OVP has been trying to shit on the Visegrad through Merkel's commands by allying with the Czechs and the Slovaks, but the Czech election is going to make Babis the Prime Minister next month, so that alliance is dead if OVP wins anyway.

If Babis wins, and it's a certainty, then the Visegrad Group will have a third major ideological ally to Orban and Szydlo, and it will strengthen the group as Babis has publicly supported Austria entering the alliance. In a post-Brexit Europe this means Visegrad nations would have 25% of the voting rights. I like.

Hence Visegrad would be:
1st in the EU for collective EP seats
2nd in the EU for raw size (617473 km2)
2nd in the EU for population (73 million)
3rd in the EU for gross domestic product ($2.38 trillion)
12th in the EU for GDP per capita ($33000 per person)

[Kyrinasaj]

It would be a nice birthday present if the FPO won

[Baltenstein]

NEOS is the party I would vote for, altough it seems pretty clear that Kurz will win the race.

[Vecherd]

FPO. The only real choice for Austria.

I also support FPO's attempt to join the Visegrad Group.

OVP has been trying to shit on the Visegrad through Merkel's commands by allying with the Czechs and the Slovaks, but the Czech election is going to make Babis the Prime Minister next month, so that alliance is dead if OVP wins anyway.

If Babis wins, and it's a certainty, then the Visegrad Group will have a third major ideological ally to Orban and Szydlo, and it will strengthen the group as Babis has publicly supported Austria entering the alliance. In a post-Brexit Europe this means Visegrad nations would have 25% of the voting rights. I like.

Is the ÖVP actually that opposed to Visegard? I mean yeah the EPP has been opposed to the asylum policies of the Visegrad countries, but the ÖVP specifically?

Babis will definitely win, but the coalition he will be forced to form could end up less populist and bland depending on his coalition partners. Perhaps KDL and ODS would work. But I don't think FPÖ alone could move the country into the Visegrad column, it all depends on Kurz who is almost certain to win the election. Basically it depends on if Kurz starts an "Orbanisation" which I do think he is more than capable of doing considering his personal popularity and concolidating power within the ÖVP unto his hands. Its a shame most European media has failed at covering the election in a better way because this is somewhat important election for the EU as a whole.

[Kennlind]

Reluctantly, FPO. They are not controlled by the NWO and are friends of Russia

[Trumptonium]

FPO. The only real choice for Austria.

I also support FPO's attempt to join the Visegrad Group.

OVP has been trying to shit on the Visegrad through Merkel's commands by allying with the Czechs and the Slovaks, but the Czech election is going to make Babis the Prime Minister next month, so that alliance is dead if OVP wins anyway.

If Babis wins, and it's a certainty, then the Visegrad Group will have a third major ideological ally to Orban and Szydlo, and it will strengthen the group as Babis has publicly supported Austria entering the alliance. In a post-Brexit Europe this means Visegrad nations would have 25% of the voting rights. I like.

Is the ÖVP actually that opposed to Visegard? I mean yeah the EPP has been opposed to the asylum policies of the Visegrad countries, but the ÖVP specifically?

Yes. They have an official policy of attempting to uproot it by allying closer with Slovakia and the Czechs, who are less authoritarian and more free-market. That won't work because Fico in Slovakia has to tighten his policies as he's losing ground to the right internally while Babis is certain to win this time next month.

Macron wants to speed up splitting of the Visegrad Group -- Czech liberal newspaper
http://visegradinsight.eu/alleged-czech-discomfort/
https://www.economist.com/news/europe/2 ... d-visegrad
https://budapestbeacon.com/slavkov-tria ... an-allies/

Heck, Viktor Orban said [referring to OVP policy] "the Austrians are just jealous they're not part of Visegrad and that they are entirely friendless" while the Polish Foreign Affairs ministry went as far as commenting on it, and the only thing they've ever previously commented on is the disintegration of Ukraine by Russia.

Babis will definitely win, but the coalition he will be forced to form could end up less populist and bland depending on his coalition partners. Perhaps KDL and ODS would work. But I don't think FPÖ alone could move the country into the Visegrad column, it all depends on Kurz who is almost certain to win the election. Basically it depends on if Kurz starts an "Orbanisation" which I do think he is more than capable of doing considering his personal popularity and concolidating power within the ÖVP unto his hands. Its a shame most European media has failed at covering the election in a better way because this is somewhat important election for the EU as a whole.

A dual ODS-ANO coalition seems pretty probably in this place, in which case a full-on Visegrad government is in the making as it was ODS who originally came up with it in 1991 and pushed it to the right with Klaus just before the crash. Vysehrad is after all the Czech castle and the namesake of the original ODS/Czech-organised meeting of the four governments.

That said Visegrad is not some kind of dogmatic alliance of four unanimous countries: Slovakia is led by a social democrat advocating mass spending, the Czech Republic is led by free-market liberals, Hungary is led by authoritarian populists who love Putin and Poland is led by social conservatives who think Putin is the incarnation of Satan. The only thing they share is a mutual agreement that national sovereignty is paramount and Brussels should gtfo, and a dislike of Islam.

As for Kurz I don't know. It seems to me like OVP is getting instructions directly from CDU on this issue which it to break Visegrad apart.

[Vecherd]

Yes. They have an official policy of attempting to uproot it by allying closer with Slovakia and the Czechs, who are less authoritarian and more free-market. That won't work because Fico in Slovakia has to tighten his policies as he's losing ground to the right internally while Babis is certain to win this time next month.

Macron wants to speed up splitting of the Visegrad Group -- Czech liberal newspaper
http://visegradinsight.eu/alleged-czech-discomfort/
https://www.economist.com/news/europe/2 ... d-visegrad
https://budapestbeacon.com/slavkov-tria ... an-allies/


Heck, Viktor Orban said [referring to OVP policy] "the Austrians are just jealous they're not part of Visegrad and that they are entirely friendless" while the Polish Foreign Affairs ministry went as far as commenting on it, and the only thing they've ever previously commented on is the disintegration of Ukraine by Russia.

So the old party elites probably worked against the Visegard group then, interesting considering Fidesz and ÖVP are EPP members. I do not think that is true for Kurz however, he has in many ways also helped the Hungarians as the architect behind the policies to stop the Balkan route as foreign minister.

A dual ODS-ANO coalition seems pretty probably in this place, in which case a full-on Visegrad government is in the making as it was ODS who originally came up with it in 1991 and pushed it to the right with Klaus just before the crash. Vysehrad is after all the Czech castle and the namesake of the original ODS/Czech-organised meeting of the four governments.

That said Visegrad is not some kind of dogmatic alliance of four unanimous countries: Slovakia is led by a social democrat advocating mass spending, the Czech Republic is led by free-market liberals, Hungary is led by authoritarian populists who love Putin and Poland is led by social conservatives who think Putin is the incarnation of Satan. The only thing they share is a mutual agreement that national sovereignty is paramount and Brussels should gtfo, and a dislike of Islam.

As for Kurz I don't know. It seems to me like OVP is getting instructions directly from CDU on this issue which it to break Visegrad apart.

I dont think ANO and ODS would get a majority though, depending on who breaks the threshold and the final result, they might need pro-European partners, like TOP or KDU.

Well yes, when I say "join Visegard" I mean it de facto rather than de jure, as you pointed out Visegard has historical connections to the meeting of central European kings.

The Slovak SocDems have only been able to stay relevant by rallying against immigration and supporting higher welfare spending, while their friends in Austria and especially Czechia are.. collapsing. Not that going to the right on culture and immigration has stopped SNP and LSNS from popping up in Slovakia either.

[Major-Tom]

I think it's interesting that 44% of NSGers voted FPÖ.

I reluctantly would go with SPÖ. They've really become more pragmatic with their new leader, and I just think Kurz is far too young and arrogant.