What if the Chinese government collapsed?

[Tokora]

Recently I made a thread asking what would happen to China after WWIII. The responses basically amounted to "that would never happen" to "you just hate Chinese". Obviously that thread was going nowhere fast so I'm taking a different approach.

Whether it'd be economic depression, an ecological disaster, or a combination of the two, what would happen if the PRC collapsed?

To me the PLA would probably split into warlords, Tibet would attempt secession during the chaos, and Taiwan and the U.N. would try to intervene and restore order.

While the rest of the world would probably sink with the ship, I would appreciate it if we could keep the thread focused on what happens in China's borders. Thanks in advance.

[Oil exporting People]

Recently I made a thread asking what would happen to China after WWIII. The responses basically amounted to "that would never happen" to "you just hate Chinese". Obviously that thread was going nowhere fast so I'm taking a different approach.

Whether it'd be economic depression, an ecological disaster, or a combination of the two, what would happen if the PRC collapsed?

To me the PLA would probably split into warlords, Tibet would attempt secession during the chaos, and Taiwan and the U.N. would try to intervene and restore order.

While the rest of the world would probably sink with the ship, I would appreciate it if we could keep the thread focused on what happens in China's borders. Thanks in advance.

In the long term of this century, I suspect an economic collapse is basically assured due to the rise of automation.

The current basis for investments into emerging economies and Globalization in general is that it is cheaper to offshore manufacturing to such nations. Bangladesh, for example, has extremely low labor costs and very little regulatory burden, as compared to retaining production in the West. With these new technologies, however, this dynamic changes as their efficiency eliminates the cost advantages of offshoring. At this point, basic economic principles take effect and global economics are forever changed. To illustrate what I mean, let’s use a real world example:

A factory in China today has 1,000 workers, each paid around $5 a day for a total labor cost of around $5,000 a day. Meanwhile in America, you have a new factory using 3D Printers and Injection Molds to produce its goods, but only requires 10 workers to do upkeep at $30 per hour, for a total daily labor cost of $2,400 (8 Hour Work day). However, thanks to the efficiency of that new tech, those American workers are able to produce the same amount of goods as their Chinese counterparts. Further, they have another inbuilt advantage in that it’s simply cheaper to ship goods into Lawton, Oklahoma from Dallas (Our imaginary American factory) then it is to do Transoceanic shipping from Fuzhou (Our imaginary Chinese factory).

Now, this is important as 40% of China's GDP comes from exports and, despite the efforts of the CCP, their consumer base remains far too small to rapidly transition into a consumption based economy. Even if they did have the consumer base, they do not have a sufficiently large education base anyway. Both issues could be solved with time, but China simply doesn't have such a luxury.

So what does this mean?

Well, China's looking at a loss of 40% of GDP, which to put in perspective is more than the United States lost in the Great Depression by a lot (GDP declined by 30% between 1929-1933). Under such conditions, I'd highly doubt coherent, centralized authority would last and expect China to fragment into regionalism. Tibet, Xinjiang, Manchuria, and Inner Mongolia will most likely seize independence. Yes, before someone jumps in to point out the Han majorities there, I do know they exist but the fact remains large minorities are also there and even in the Han areas there is great regional tensions/differences. Yunnan also seems likely another bet, to me. As for the remainder, I expect it to be a matter of defacto independence instead of dejure with the former regional party organizations taking control largely. The PLA, meanwhile, seems very likely to disintegrate rapidly given its disconnected nature.

[Frostnia]

Recently I made a thread asking what would happen to China after WWIII. The responses basically amounted to "that would never happen" to "you just hate Chinese". Obviously that thread was going nowhere fast so I'm taking a different approach.

Whether it'd be economic depression, an ecological disaster, or a combination of the two, what would happen if the PRC collapsed?

To me the PLA would probably split into warlords, Tibet would attempt secession during the chaos, and Taiwan and the U.N. would try to intervene and restore order.

While the rest of the world would probably sink with the ship, I would appreciate it if we could keep the thread focused on what happens in China's borders. Thanks in advance.

In the long term of this century, I suspect an economic collapse is basically assured due to the rise of automation.

The current basis for investments into emerging economies and Globalization in general is that it is cheaper to offshore manufacturing to such nations. Bangladesh, for example, has extremely low labor costs and very little regulatory burden, as compared to retaining production in the West. With these new technologies, however, this dynamic changes as their efficiency eliminates the cost advantages of offshoring. At this point, basic economic principles take effect and global economics are forever changed. To illustrate what I mean, let’s use a real world example:

A factory in China today has 1,000 workers, each paid around $5 a day for a total labor cost of around $5,000 a day. Meanwhile in America, you have a new factory using 3D Printers and Injection Molds to produce its goods, but only requires 10 workers to do upkeep at $30 per hour, for a total daily labor cost of $2,400 (8 Hour Work day). However, thanks to the efficiency of that new tech, those American workers are able to produce the same amount of goods as their Chinese counterparts. Further, they have another inbuilt advantage in that it’s simply cheaper to ship goods into Lawton, Oklahoma from Dallas (Our imaginary American factory) then it is to do Transoceanic shipping from Fuzhou (Our imaginary Chinese factory).

Now, this is important as 40% of China's GDP comes from exports and, despite the efforts of the CCP, their consumer base remains far too small to rapidly transition into a consumption based economy. Even if they did have the consumer base, they do not have a sufficiently large education baseanyway. Both issues could be solved with time, but China simply doesn't have such a luxury.

So what does this mean?

Well, China's looking at a loss of 40% of GDP, which to put in perspective is more than the United States lost in the Great Depression by a lot (GDP declined by 30% between 1929-1933). Under such conditions, I'd highly doubt coherent, centralized authority would last and expect China to fragment into regionalism. Tibet, Xinjiang, Manchuria, and Inner Mongolia will most likely seize independence; yes, before someone jumps in to point out the Han majorities there, I do know they exist but the fact remains large minorities are also there and even in the Han areas there is great regional tensions/differences. Yunnan also seems likely another likely bet, to be me. As for the remainder, I expect it to be a matter of defacto independence instead of dejure with the former regional party organizations taking control largely. The PLA, meanwhile, seems very likely to disintegrate rapidly in my view.

It's good someone's mentioning the Uyghurs. No one ever talks about them when they talk about secessionist movements in China. I don't know of any major calls for succession from Manchuria though. Its population is vastly Han Chinese and the region has been tied to China for a long time (The Qing dynasty was originally Manchurian). They're too much like Han China to secede in my opinion. As for the other regions, I think Inner Mongolia would probably just join regular Mongolia (or Mongolia would claim it anyway), as well as Hong Kong, Macau, and the Korean regions in Manchuria (granted, this is only if North Korea collapses and Korea is united, which without Chinese support would certainly happen anyway). I don't know about Yunnan. Taiwan would try to reunite with or re-take as much of mainland China as possible.

As for the other parts of your statement, China's economy would certainly collapse, due to the reasons you stated and because their economy is fed by the now-defunct state. The PLA would certainly descend into infighting, as it is a tool of the CCP, not the country, and as such has alliances to several competing CCP members (but Tokora already mentioned that so whatevs)

[Tokora]

Glad to see some responses (I was genuinely worried that nobody would dare think ill of the PRC).

So what I see is i that Tibet, Xinjiang, and a few city-states will gain independence, Mongolia would reclaim its outer territory, and Korea and Taiwan would try to pick at what's left. Because Taiwan is still basically just an Island and Korea would've just been through a second war that may or maynot have involved WMDs, how successful do you think Taiwan and Korea would be at annexing the mainland and Manchuria respectively?

[Ostroeuropa]

I don't think it would.
A sudden collapse somehow without first fermenting opposing political factions that cannot abide eachother would just lead to the re-formation of china.

Towns would organize, then regions, then those regions would simply come to some arrangement and unite.

If the collapse were prolonged, the lack of central authority may lead to food shortages which might provoke a lasting conflict and civil war, but i'd wager it would probably just be like a minor government crisis akin to coalition deals in the UK. We'd have a few days of western media absolutely flipping its fucking shit with hysteria, while the chinese towns just have the elder or an elected official or the party chairman or something just wander off to a neighboring town to see wtf is going on, those towns having a regional person, and so on.

The new china would probably seek to continue as before.

Tibet might get independent, but probably not. It's doubtful there is a majority in Tibet in favor of independence due to Chinese colonial efforts.

[The Derpy Democratic Republic Of Herp]

Eh, it just kinda happens. China falls apart and put it's self back together a lot in history.

[British Empire Strikes Back]

What about Hong Kong and Macau, specifically the large amounts of people in Hong Kong who either want reunification with the U.K., or independence as a Commonwealth realm?

[Pepsi Co]

I was genuinely worried that nobody would dare think ill of the PRC.

Not so loud! Do you want them to ban our exports and kck out our factories?

[Tokora]

A sudden collapse somehow without first fermenting opposing political factions that cannot abide eachother would just lead to the re-formation of china.

Towns would organize, then regions, then those regions would simply come to some arrangement and unite.

Eh, it just kinda happens. China falls apart and put it's self back together a lot in history.

I never said China had to stay divided.

The new china would probably seek to continue as before.

So you're saying the Chinese would willingly go back to totalitarian-capitalism? That is soul-crushingly depressing.

What about Hong Kong and Macau, specifically the large amounts of people in Hong Kong who either want reunification with the U.K., or independence as a Commonwealth realm?

So do you think Macau would want to be independent or rejoin Portugal?

Not so loud! Do you want them to ban our exports and kck out our factories?

As a matter of fact, yes. I think China should be flat out embargoed.

[Ostroeuropa]

A sudden collapse somehow without first fermenting opposing political factions that cannot abide eachother would just lead to the re-formation of china.

Towns would organize, then regions, then those regions would simply come to some arrangement and unite.

Eh, it just kinda happens. China falls apart and put it's self back together a lot in history.

I never said China had to stay divided.

The new china would probably seek to continue as before.

So you're saying the Chinese would willingly go back to totalitarian-capitalism? That is soul-crushingly depressing.

What about Hong Kong and Macau, specifically the large amounts of people in Hong Kong who either want reunification with the U.K., or independence as a Commonwealth realm?

So do you think Macau would want to be independent or rejoin Portugal?

Not so loud! Do you want them to ban our exports and kck out our factories?

As a matter of fact, yes. I think China should be flat out embargoed.

It may have some reforms, but it would be largely like a patch update that removed some of the more blatant corruption imo.
In the event of a sudden collapse, conservative impulses would take over imo. Too much reform would be seen as risky, and might alienate different regions thus provoking civil war.
A system that all regions agree to would be needed.

[Ancient Lepala]

To me the PLA would probably split into warlords, Tibet would attempt secession during the chaos, and Taiwan and the U.N. would try to intervene and restore order.

While the rest of the world would probably sink with the ship, I would appreciate it if we could keep the thread focused on what happens in China's borders. Thanks in advance.

It depends on the cause, but I'd say you're mostly accurate.

[The Derpy Democratic Republic Of Herp]

A sudden collapse somehow without first fermenting opposing political factions that cannot abide eachother would just lead to the re-formation of china.

Towns would organize, then regions, then those regions would simply come to some arrangement and unite.

Eh, it just kinda happens. China falls apart and put it's self back together a lot in history.

I never said China had to stay divided.

I know I was mostly saying that for the meme. That and that China has gotten good at reuniting with it's self.

[Community Values]

Western China would become the new Sudan/Afghanistan, while Tibet becomes friendly with India. Taiwan stays Taiwan. China turns into either a military dictatorship (or something similar), that tries to retain their legitimacy saying their government is the ideal of Socialism with Chinese Characteristics, or a third world social democracy (like India) becomes the new government of China. Either way, China would either try and reclaim its lost land through force or referendums.

[Neanderthaland]

The problem with this question is the same as the problem with the last one. It's still not a specific enough scenario to say.

What happens after the Chinese government collapses depends mostly on how and why it collapsed. Was there a war? Some enormous scandal? Did everyone in the government just not show up for work one day? All of these have different outcomes, and even then we still need to know more. If there was a war, is there an occupation force? Are they receiving international aid? Is Taiwan still a thing? Lots of variables.

[Delkora]

I can imagine Tibet and Xinjiang trying to assert their independence in the chaos. Maybe India would attempt to seize control of its disputed border areas with China. There would probably be a power struggle between different factions of the PLA for control of the rest of the country. I doubt Taiwan, South Korea, or Japan would try to intervene unless the U.S. for some reason decided it would be a good idea to get involved.

[Sovaal]

Economically, I don't know, although the collapse of one of the worlds biggest manufacturers could hardly be good.

Politically, I wouldn't be surprised if some areas go independent and others are ruled over by warlords.

[Oil exporting People]

Economically, I don't know, although the collapse of one of the worlds biggest manufacturers could hardly be good.

Europe has already cut imports from China and the U.S. is less dependent on China than China is on them; with my theory on how technology will change the dynamics, a collapse of China won't hurt either at all.

[Marilyn Manson Freaks]

What if? What if?

What if [Violet] added more smilies?

Just what if?

I hate what if questions, but I will answer this one.

I believe if the current Chinese government collapsed, some rebels would seize the government offices, and China would be freed from Communism. Then the new government would break ties with North Korea, and North Korea would become even poorer, and have basically only the support of the remaining communist countries.

[Frostnia]

Glad to see some responses (I was genuinely worried that nobody would dare think ill of the PRC).

So what I see is i that Tibet, Xinjiang, and a few city-states will gain independence, Mongolia would reclaim its outer territory, and Korea and Taiwan would try to pick at what's left. Because Taiwan is still basically just an Island and Korea would've just been through a second war that may or maynot have involved WMDs, how successful do you think Taiwan and Korea would be at annexing the mainland and Manchuria respectively?

Taiwan would seek to unite with any Chinese regions that agree with them (probably with the UN's help). Korea wouldn't annex all of Manchuria, only the majority Korean regions on the border.

[Jetan]

RoC restored, when?

[The Federation of Kendor]

I hope their government will become like that of US democracy. They have a single party in power, as well as committing many human rights abuses, such as the persecution of Falun Gong, and more.

[Senkaku]

"what if the government of a major power collapsed"

Idk, probably bad things, but who the fuck knows, it probably won't any time soon

[Rio Cana]

Glad to see some responses (I was genuinely worried that nobody would dare think ill of the PRC).

So what I see is i that Tibet, Xinjiang, and a few city-states will gain independence, Mongolia would reclaim its outer territory, and Korea and Taiwan would try to pick at what's left. Because Taiwan is still basically just an Island and Korea would've just been through a second war that may or maynot have involved WMDs, how successful do you think Taiwan and Korea would be at annexing the mainland and Manchuria respectively?

No. Han Chinese make up the majority in Xinjiang and some say in Tibet. Mongolia does not want problems with its neighbors so they would not annex anything. If by some change the government collapsed, the military would fill the void. Chances are they would accept Taiwans offer to help in forming a new government. But more then likely it would be a government fromed by mainlanders.

[Oil exporting People]

No. Han Chinese make up the majority in Xinjiang and some say in Tibet. Mongolia does not want problems with its neighbors so they would not annex anything. If by some change the government collapsed, the military would fill the void. Chances are they would accept Taiwans offer to help in forming a new government. But more then likely it would be a government fromed by mainlanders.

The Chinese government will collapse this century due to economic issues, and no, the PLA won't be able to stop it because the PLA is not a cohesive entity.

[Mike the Progressive]

Democracy would spread like wildfire, from sea to shining sea.