Plzen wrote:“The historian is almost tempted to conclude that between 1890 and 1914 France possessed the only really skillful diplomats in Europe.”- D. J. Goodspeed, The German Wars: 1914-1945
Since the German Reich or its equivalent never really formed, the French humiliation in 1871 didn't happen, the Second Schleswig War of 1864 didn't happen or happened differently, the United States is actively supporting European liberalism, Russia's cut into splinter states, and presumably the Austro-Prussian War of 1866 didn't happen the way it did IRL, the balance of power and the system of alliances/rivalries in Europe is probably very, very different.
How would it look like, in rough outlines?
Well, this is obviously still pretty vague, and to some extent I'm thinking out loud.
My sense from the thread is that Britain is still the hegemon, and its naval power means that it is under no strategic obligation to ally with anyone; it can serve its RL role as a stabilizing agent, jumping in on whatever side is disadvantaged in the balance of power in order to keep the equation balanced. France is probably the most powerful country on the continent, considering its victory over Prussia. Given the collapse of Prussia, Austria-Hungary is probably France's biggest continental rival; if Italy is united and Spain held on to its empire, then those four countries would be the major powers in Western Europe. It's hard to say exactly how the system of alliances among those powers would play out; smaller countries like the Netherlands, Denmark, and Sweden-Norway might well have a role to play in pressuring their larger neighbors to remain civil.
Russia would likely be in a revanchist mood, eyeing Poland and Finland, but no one in the West would want to see the Bear reclaim its former power; the threat of Russian reconquests might be the only thing that could bring the Western powers together. On the other hand, since the Crimean War, real power in the East would lie with the Ottomans. We might see a realignment of Russian policy to check Ottoman expansion in the Balkans, which would also be an Austrian priority. On the other hand, Britain would need to preserve its access to the Suez Canal, which would make the Ottomans the only power with real leverage over the hegemon.
Britain and France would likely both have colonial empires in Africa and Asia. This competition, plus France's dominance on the Continent, would probably be enough to re-ignite the old Anglo-French rivalry. Spain's empire is almost entirely in the New World, which means that its major rival is the United States, which has been covertly chipping away at its more impoverished provinces for several decades. In space, the US and France are probably jockeying for dominance on Mars, while Britain is likely the uncontested hegemon on Venus - though Austria may also have interests there. And in East Asia, Britain, France, and the US are probably all competing for influence.
So these countries would be at odds pretty much all the time:
- Britain and France
- France and Austria
- Spain and the USA
These countries would be rivals, but would also have reasons to work together:
- Austria and Russia, against the Ottomans
- The Ottomans and Britain, against any threat to the Suez Canal
- Britain and the USA, against France on Mars
- Sweden-Norway, Denmark, and Poland, against Russian revanchism
These countries would be natural friends:
- The USA and any republics, even small ones like Switzerland or new ones like Poland (the success of the January Uprising would probably have created a Polish national republic in the spirit of '48)
- Britain and the second-tier powers of Europe, like Sweden-Norway and the Netherlands, because they all share an interest in preventing a general European war.
- Otherwise, any alliances among the Great Powers would probably be intended purely to preserve the balance of power, not as a result of any real loyalty.
Things are probably a lot more complicated than that, and the overall picture will doubtless change and get more detailed as formal applications come into the OOC thread. But those would be my best guesses based on the worldbuilding that we've done so far.