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What is next for Iraq?

For discussion and debate about anything. (Not a roleplay related forum; out-of-character commentary only.)

How can Iraq see peace again?

Partition country between the Sunnis, Shias, and Kurds.
14
44%
Re-invade and install a strong secular government that is genuinely pluralistic.
5
16%
Just keep trying to encourage diplomacy and hope for a miracle.
6
19%
I sexually identify as an attack helicopter. Send me there and I can help.
7
22%
 
Total votes : 32

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New Clearland
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What is next for Iraq?

Postby New Clearland » Tue Apr 25, 2017 3:52 pm

Most of Mosul is liberated from the Islamic State. Once Mosul is fully liberated the IS will only remain in control of a few large towns and small cities in Iraq and will likely lose most of those too by the end of year. While getting rid of the IS will certainly be a blessing for a country long torn by war and Islamic extremism, it begs the question of what is next for Iraq?

Will their be yet another civil war with the pro-Iran militias in the People's Mobilization trying to purge all the Sunnis and Iraqi nationalists? Will the Iraqi Army fight the Peshmerga in a bid to reclaim the territory they occupy outside Iraqi Kurdistan? Will there be another Sunni and/or Baathist uprising?

To be honest, given the extremely diverse and volatile nature of Iraqi society and the instability (and incompetence) of the Iraqi government, I just do not see a peaceful future for Iraq. As for what should be done to stabilize Iraq I have heard many things from simply helping the Iraqi government build up their military to outright launching a second invasion of Iraq and create a new government for them (unlike the hands off approach the US took last time which led to Nouri al-Maliki's pro-Iran Shia Islamist government), and have a long term commitment to their security and stability.

Personally, I think Iraq is just doomed no matter what approach is taken. Even Saddam Hussein and his iron fist barely kept the diverse country stable. Perhaps partitioning the country is the only real practical way they will have peace. What do you think is next for Iraq and what is the best way for Iraq to achieve peace?

MOD EDIT: The thread has served its purpose in eliciting a number of responses, ranging from 'uninformed' to 'bewildered' with a couple of exceptions. Thread locked. You may ensure your threads last longer by quitting with the attack helicopter stuff.
Last edited by Audioslavia on Wed Apr 26, 2017 10:30 am, edited 3 times in total.
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United Socialist Ecuador
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Postby United Socialist Ecuador » Tue Apr 25, 2017 3:55 pm

Unless they fix the shia sunni problem, most likely with propaganda. And try and keep themselves and rebuild.
It will take years.
But the real problem is how can they actually make a role in the middle East, I think after Syria's being infected with the ISIS virus by Iraq, the relations could be really cold.
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United Muscovite Nations
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Postby United Muscovite Nations » Tue Apr 25, 2017 3:56 pm

1) Resurrect Saddam Hussein
2) Gas the Extremists
3) Fuck the Iranians and their Shia-Kurdish puppets
4) Destroy the Syrian rebels
5) Unify Iraq and Syria

You're welcome.
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United Socialist Ecuador
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Postby United Socialist Ecuador » Tue Apr 25, 2017 3:59 pm

United Muscovite Nations wrote:1) Resurrect Saddam Hussein
2) Gas the Extremists
3) Fuck the Iranians and their Shia-Kurdish puppets
4) Destroy the Syrian rebels
5) Unify Iraq and Syria

You're welcome.

Eh.
Who cares, just let them be stable and stop wars.
Because I don't want any damn war, especially our future North Korean crisis.
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Sanctissima
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Postby Sanctissima » Tue Apr 25, 2017 4:02 pm

Fragmentation and continued warfare.

Too many unresolved internal issues, and too many competing foreign ambitions involving Iraq for the country to gain any substantial form of stability for the time being.

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United Socialist Ecuador
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Postby United Socialist Ecuador » Tue Apr 25, 2017 4:03 pm

Sanctissima wrote:Fragmentation and continued warfare.

Too many unresolved internal issues, and too many competing foreign ambitions involving Iraq for the country to gain any substantial form of stability for the time being.

Exactly. There needs to be a miracle if you truly want peace in the Middle East.
They are too caught up in corruption and religion.
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New Clearland
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Postby New Clearland » Tue Apr 25, 2017 4:08 pm

United Socialist Ecuador wrote:
Sanctissima wrote:Fragmentation and continued warfare.

Too many unresolved internal issues, and too many competing foreign ambitions involving Iraq for the country to gain any substantial form of stability for the time being.

Exactly. There needs to be a miracle if you truly want peace in the Middle East.
They are too caught up in corruption and religion.


Sadly I think you speak the truth.
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Olerand
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Postby Olerand » Tue Apr 25, 2017 4:08 pm

Ideally, full on federalism.
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United Socialist Ecuador
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Postby United Socialist Ecuador » Tue Apr 25, 2017 4:10 pm

New Clearland wrote:
United Socialist Ecuador wrote:Exactly. There needs to be a miracle if you truly want peace in the Middle East.
They are too caught up in corruption and religion.


Sadly I think you speak the truth.

Yep.
I am sorry too.
I really want peace in the world.
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New Clearland
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Postby New Clearland » Tue Apr 25, 2017 4:11 pm

Olerand wrote:Ideally, full on federalism.


But what of the Iran-backed Shia militias that want to purge the Sunnis and make Iraq a full puppet state of Iran?
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Valdano
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Postby Valdano » Tue Apr 25, 2017 4:11 pm

Anarchy and violence like it has had for almost 2 decades

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Olerand
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Postby Olerand » Tue Apr 25, 2017 4:14 pm

New Clearland wrote:
Olerand wrote:Ideally, full on federalism.


But what of the Iran-backed Shia militias that want to purge the Sunnis and make Iraq a full puppet state of Iran?

Well, ideally. The Shia won't want it, the Sunni won't want it. So... Ideally.
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Ethel mermania
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Postby Ethel mermania » Tue Apr 25, 2017 4:17 pm

10 or so years of absolute fuckery. sorry to say.
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United Socialist Ecuador
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Postby United Socialist Ecuador » Tue Apr 25, 2017 4:18 pm

Ethel mermania wrote:10 or so years of absolute fuckery. sorry to say.

No don't worry. Everyone thinks the same. War will never end there unsurprisingly.
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Major-Tom
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Postby Major-Tom » Tue Apr 25, 2017 4:22 pm

Break it up into Kurdish, Shia, and Sunni states. Sucks but it needs to be done.

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Saiwania
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Postby Saiwania » Tue Apr 25, 2017 4:22 pm

Once ISIS is completely driven out of Iraq, it can be peacefully partitioned into 2 or 3 states. In either outcome, there will likely be an independent Kurdistan. It will be splendid.
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Pentagol
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Postby Pentagol » Tue Apr 25, 2017 4:23 pm

I would guess more conflict the Iraq people didn't ask for.

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Mejiico
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Postby Mejiico » Tue Apr 25, 2017 4:25 pm

Partition the country. Sure it seems a bit arbitrary, but hey, at least the borders will be more 'real' then the ones created by the British.

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Antagarichh
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Postby Antagarichh » Tue Apr 25, 2017 4:34 pm

United Socialist Ecuador wrote:Unless they fix the shia sunni problem, most likely with propaganda. And try and keep themselves and rebuild.
It will take years.
But the real problem is how can they actually make a role in the middle East, I think after Syria's being infected with the ISIS virus by Iraq, the relations could be really cold.

Why would relations be cold because of a jihadist group no one has control over? That makes no sense, it's like getting mad at someone for spreading you the cold while you are visiting them in hospice. Syria is right next to Iraq and was facing its own problems what with the FSA before al-Baghdadi even started the original al-Nusra as a splinter chapter, and the Iraqi government was nothing more than a provisional authority under U.S. occupation. Honestly, the only way Iraqi-Syrian relations will be cold after the wiping out of extremist rebels and jihadists will be if Iraq completely gives up on trying to eliminate ISIS within Iraq and lets them regroup. Iraq and Syria will be forced to work together to eliminate ISIS, they won't grow farther apart from it.
Also, I don't know why for any logical reason you think mere propaganda will be able to bridge the divide between Sunnis and Shias. Saddam held the rift together under an oppressive dictatorship which executed and imprisoned any dissenters, and the second his dictatorship toppled the Sunnis immediately started terrorist groups(such as ISIS) which continue to further divide the two Islamic sects. To attempt to delude yourself that propaganda will bridge a gap that has been around since the times of Justinian is not only stupid, but an intoxicating sugar coating of the truth. What WILL bridge the gap- temporarily- is extreme pushing of Iraqi nationalism and belief in Allah and Iraq. Even then, with Kurdistan thrown into the mix, it will probably never happen without the rise of another Saddam.
There really is no "next" for Iraq; Iraq's future is now.

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New Clearland
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Postby New Clearland » Tue Apr 25, 2017 5:01 pm

Saiwania wrote:Once ISIS is completely driven out of Iraq, it can be peacefully partitioned into 2 or 3 states. In either outcome, there will likely be an independent Kurdistan. It will be splendid.


The peace in Iraqi Kurdistan is tenuous at best. The Peshmerga aren't a unified military, rather they are a collection of armed groups affiliated with different Kurdish political parties which don't always get along... as shown in the Iraqi Kurdistan Civil War in the 1990s. Last I read tensions between the different Kurdish groups are on the rise.
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Faarali
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Postby Faarali » Tue Apr 25, 2017 5:16 pm

The Kurds are irrenditist af, making them independent will further legitimize their incursions.
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New Clearland
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Postby New Clearland » Tue Apr 25, 2017 6:12 pm

Faarali wrote:The Kurds are irrenditist af, making them independent will further legitimize their incursions.


Sadly. Turkey already has a problem with Kurdish terrorists that are supported by Rojava and Iraqi Kurdistan...
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The of Japan
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Postby The of Japan » Tue Apr 25, 2017 6:28 pm

New Clearland wrote:
Faarali wrote:The Kurds are irrenditist af, making them independent will further legitimize their incursions.


Sadly. Turkey already has a problem with Kurdish terrorists that are supported by Rojava and Iraqi Kurdistan...

Iraqi kurdistan's government doesn't support Rojava nor PKK. PUK do support PKK though.
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New Clearland
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Postby New Clearland » Tue Apr 25, 2017 8:25 pm

Pentagol wrote:I would guess more conflict the Iraq people didn't ask for.


War against the Kurdish separatists from the 1970s to 1990s, the Iran-Iraq War of the 1980s, the Gulf War, the Shia uprisings of the 1990s, the shitstorm of the 2000s, the Iraqi Civil War from 2014 to present. It is sad to say that it looks like Iraq has only ever known conflict...
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Antesh
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Postby Antesh » Tue Apr 25, 2017 8:49 pm

It's either partition or genocide.
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