The Fate of Retail

[The Serbian Empire]

Radio Shack and Payless Shoes are expected to file for bankruptcy. One of the most foreboding signs of the changing American retail landscape is the fact that mall development in the United States has ground to a halt. Currently, only two shopping malls are being built in the United States, and dozens have closed in recent years. J.C. Penney and Macy’s frequently serve as cornerstone stores -- the major department stores that drive foot traffic to American malls. As these stores go out of business, they cause a chain reaction, severely cutting down traffic to the smaller stores commonly found at malls.

Resources on the topic if you want to find out what happens to a mall once the anchor (example Sears) departs a mall is Rolling Acres Mall. This mall was demolished last year in Akron, Ohio. Rolling Acres is a prime example of a dead mall.

NSG, what do you think of the fate of brick and mortar retail? I see this as a concerning sign of the future.

[Jello Biafra]

I don't want to say that brick and mortar stores are dead yet; Amazon is, after all, beginning to open up such buildings. I think they'll need to change the way they do business, though. They may need to become more customer-service oriented.

[Great Nepal]

I'd say this is good development - brick and mortar stores need to innovate and quite frankly they haven't done that at all. Online has demonstrated ability to adapt and improve far above and beyond traditional stores and that is what is necessary - I'd not go as far as to say brick and mortar as a whole is dead since they're trying innovative ideas like amazon go stores and quite interesting AR based developments in Japan in niche areas which could be intresting, but I'd say traditional stores are going to be limited and this is quite frankly for the best.

[Saiwania]

There was a mall boom in the US during the 1970s and 80's, where too many malls were built. Few people back then predicted that the internet would change retail, so of course many malls would end up closing. Retail is like other industries in that there are brands which come and go, but it is a brutally competitive industry to stay alive in, not for wimps.

A video about the factors which led up to the closure of Rolling Acres mall:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Nv_8jLBX-2k

Sears and Kmart look on the brink of chapter 7 bankruptcy, I think both are going the way of Circuit City. Sears in particular, has a CEO currently in charge who is not interested at all in being a retailer. Instead, he is cannibalizing the brand of its still valuable assets and extracting what money he can from it.

I don't see physical stores completely going away, (have to have a local place to buy perishable groceries after all) but it will definitely be substantially reduced as online shopping alternatives become dominant. People have voted with their wallets that online retail is satisfactory for delivering products.

[Gauthier]

It's a conspiracy by the Zombie Agenda to cut off humans from defensible positions when the Apocalypse comes.

[The One True Benxboro Empire]

It's a conspiracy by the Zombie Agenda to cut off humans from defensible positions when the Apocalypse comes.

[Gauthier]

It's a conspiracy by the Zombie Agenda to cut off humans from defensible positions when the Apocalypse comes.

Think about it. Where do humans like to barricade themselves when there's a zombie apocalypse? Malls.

[Great Nepal]

Think about it. Where do humans like to barricade themselves when there's a zombie apocalypse? Malls.

Amazon warehouse might be better choice.

[Novus America]

The great irony here is Sears was Amazon before there was Amazon.
Sears was before the mall boom heavily catalog based, selling all sorts of things (even houses) by mail order. Things obviously that could not entirely be stocked in stores.

What Amazon did was take Sears old catalog model and apply it to the internet.
Amazon's model is not that new or innovative in fact, it is really just a modernized version of the old Sears catalog. Interesting that Sears is dying by their own sword.

But I think ordinary retail does have a place. For example shoes I do not order online as the sizes are hard to predict. In theory they are standard but in fact a size 9 in one brand and type might be a size 11 in another. The ability to try things out and put them on is useful.

I do think we will see less of the big box model and more a return to smaller retailers that are more customer focused, not just selling huge amounts of fungible, ordinary goods.

[The One True Benxboro Empire]

The great irony here is Sears was Amazon before there was Amazon.
Sears was before the mall boom heavily catalog based, selling all sorts of things (even houses) by mail order. Things obviously that could not entirely be stocked in stores.

What Amazon did was take Sears old catalog model and apply it to the internet.
Amazon's model is not that new or innovative in fact, it is really just a modernized version of the old Sears catalog. Interesting that Sears is dying by their own sword.

But I think ordinary retail does have a place. For example shoes I do not order online as the sizes are hard to predict. In theory they are standard but in fact a size 9 in one brand and type might be a size 11 in another. The ability to try things out and put them on is useful.

I do think we will see less of the big box model and more a return to smaller details that are more customer focused, not just selling huge amounts of fungible, ordinary goods.

"Did you ever hear the Tragedy of Sears the Wise? It's a Retail legend. Sears was a Dark Lord of the Retail so powerful and so wise, he could use Catalogs to influence the consumers to choose...him as their producer. He had such a knowledge of the Dark Side, he could even keep the catalogs he cared about...from going unsold. He became so powerful, the only thing he was afraid of was losing his market share...which, eventually of course, he did. Unfortunately, he taught his apprentice everything he knew. Then his apprentice put his catalogs on the Internet in his sleep. Ironic. He could save others from obsoletion...but not himself."

[USS Monitor]

But I think ordinary retail does have a place. For example shoes I do not order online as the sizes are hard to predict. In theory they are standard but in fact a size 9 in one brand and type might be a size 11 in another. The ability to try things out and put them on is useful.

I do think we will see less of the big box model and more a return to smaller retailers that are more customer focused, not just selling huge amounts of fungible, ordinary goods.

I agree with this. I order things online sometimes, but there are other things like clothes shopping that I prefer to do at stores.

Some clothing stores have been struggling because people are more interested in having the latest phone than the latest fashion, but I don't think that means clothing stores are inherently non-viable. People still need clothes even if they are trying to dress themselves on a limited budget, and it is nice to be able to try them on. It just means stores need to cut back on the sprawling spaces filled with stuff that is a poor fit for the current market. Macy's is basically everything that's not working anymore. It's too expensive for people to shop there when they want a bargain, not high-end and unique enough to get the boutiquey high-fashion crowd.

[Great Nepal]

The great irony here is Sears was Amazon before there was Amazon.
Sears was before the mall boom heavily catalog based, selling all sorts of things (even houses) by mail order. Things obviously that could not entirely be stocked in stores.

What Amazon did was take Sears old catalog model and apply it to the internet.
Amazon's model is not that new or innovative in fact, it is really just a modernized version of the old Sears catalog. Interesting that Sears is dying by their own sword.

Yes but that is looking at the model at far too abstract level - the innovation comes from convenient asynchronous deliveries (prime lockers) and short order to delivery time (2 hour delivery). Expecting people to order something then wait days for the delivery with window of days is silly beyond extreme, and Amazon is removing that - sure the time is still not perfect for impulse buys and it is limited in locations but it is still an innovation and more importantly it isn't that difficult to see how with technology this could be improved.

But I think ordinary retail does have a place. For example shoes I do not order online as the sizes are hard to predict. In theory they are standard but in fact a size 9 in one brand and type might be a size 11 in another. The ability to try things out and put them on is useful.

This could be achieved quite easily through online retail in few years - use a phones with depth perception cameras to take a picture of your feet and it works out the feet dimensions and matches it to the actual measurements the manufacturer has provided.
Or for physical experience, have a trying 'store' with rows of lockers and you select a size on an app, and it gives you a locker number and an unique code - when you find one that fits, put the shoe back and place an online order. That way people can still try things where tactile response matters like shoes or clothes but the 'store' only ever needs to stock one of each item.

[Newtdom]

Traditional brick and mortar is on the way out for most retailers. The writing has been on the wall for sometime. However, Bonobos is a prime example of a retail company that started entirely as an internet based retailer which is now creating brick and mortar locations. The difference is, if you go into one of the Bonobos stores you cannot actually purchase anything there. The only purpose of the brick and mortar Bonobos is for you to try on the item you are looking at purchasing, or ask the advice of the store attendants. This model, I predict, will become the standard in the retail (particularly clothing retail) industry over the next decade.

[The Serbian Empire]

Traditional brick and mortar is on the way out for most retailers. The writing has been on the wall for sometime. However, Bonobos is a prime example of a retail company that started entirely as an internet based retailer which is now creating brick and mortar locations. The difference is, if you go into one of the Bonobos stores you cannot actually purchase anything there. The only purpose of the brick and mortar Bonobos is for you to try on the item you are looking at purchasing, or ask the advice of the store attendants. This model, I predict, will become the standard in the retail (particularly clothing retail) industry over the next decade.

How will the mall/strip mall rents be paid if one doesn't physically sell stuff there? I'm baffled by the concept, but Bonobos probably has a good business model for taking market share in the future as people won't want to order without knowing it will fit due to shipping.

The great irony here is Sears was Amazon before there was Amazon.
Sears was before the mall boom heavily catalog based, selling all sorts of things (even houses) by mail order. Things obviously that could not entirely be stocked in stores.

What Amazon did was take Sears old catalog model and apply it to the internet.
Amazon's model is not that new or innovative in fact, it is really just a modernized version of the old Sears catalog. Interesting that Sears is dying by their own sword.

Yes but that is looking at the model at far too abstract level - the innovation comes from convenient asynchronous deliveries (prime lockers) and short order to delivery time (2 hour delivery). Expecting people to order something then wait days for the delivery with window of days is silly beyond extreme, and Amazon is removing that - sure the time is still not perfect for impulse buys and it is limited in locations but it is still an innovation and more importantly it isn't that difficult to see how with technology this could be improved.

But I think ordinary retail does have a place. For example shoes I do not order online as the sizes are hard to predict. In theory they are standard but in fact a size 9 in one brand and type might be a size 11 in another. The ability to try things out and put them on is useful.

This could be achieved quite easily through online retail in few years - use a phones with depth perception cameras to take a picture of your feet and it works out the feet dimensions and matches it to the actual measurements the manufacturer has provided.
Or for physical experience, have a trying 'store' with rows of lockers and you select a size on an app, and it gives you a locker number and an unique code - when you find one that fits, put the shoe back and place an online order. That way people can still try things where tactile response matters like shoes or clothes but the 'store' only ever needs to stock one of each item.

Remember, AI is not perfect at predicting size. You'd need TV quality cameras to reliably get such details of depth perception.

[Frank Zipper]

I wonder if Alibaba will buy Amazon, or if Amazon will buy Alibaba.

[Lancaster of Wessex]

Traditional retail is going to go the way of the dodo sooner than later. Malls will have to become places of experience more than just mere shopping. A place where you can yes go out to eat, but also see a movie of course, or do an activity. More and more it's becoming clear that traditional retail is slowing disappearing. Why would companies want to spend countless millions on overhead and paying staff.

All of this is just a sign we're moving to an AI-run society, should things continue as is, and a universal basic income will be our only answer.

[The Serbian Empire]

Traditional retail is going to go the way of the dodo sooner than later. Malls will have to become places of experience more than just mere shopping. A place where you can yes go out to eat, but also see a movie of course, or do an activity. More and more it's becoming clear that traditional retail is slowing disappearing. Why would companies want to spend countless millions on overhead and paying staff.

All of this is just a sign we're moving to an AI-run society, should things continue as is, and a universal basic income will be our only answer.

I fear that conservatives will be opposed to that universal basic income.

[Lancaster of Wessex]

Traditional retail is going to go the way of the dodo sooner than later. Malls will have to become places of experience more than just mere shopping. A place where you can yes go out to eat, but also see a movie of course, or do an activity. More and more it's becoming clear that traditional retail is slowing disappearing. Why would companies want to spend countless millions on overhead and paying staff.

All of this is just a sign we're moving to an AI-run society, should things continue as is, and a universal basic income will be our only answer.

I fear that conservatives will be opposed to that universal basic income.

They might not have a choice. The more and more automation that goes on, the more unemployment, there will be no choice but to implement it, unless they want hundreds of millions of unemployed people on their hands. We are making our own species redundant.

[Great Nepal]

Traditional brick and mortar is on the way out for most retailers. The writing has been on the wall for sometime. However, Bonobos is a prime example of a retail company that started entirely as an internet based retailer which is now creating brick and mortar locations. The difference is, if you go into one of the Bonobos stores you cannot actually purchase anything there. The only purpose of the brick and mortar Bonobos is for you to try on the item you are looking at purchasing, or ask the advice of the store attendants. This model, I predict, will become the standard in the retail (particularly clothing retail) industry over the next decade.

How will the mall/strip mall rents be paid if one doesn't physically sell stuff there? I'm baffled by the concept, but Bonobos probably has a good business model for taking market share in the future as people won't want to order without knowing it will fit due to shipping.

Yes but that is looking at the model at far too abstract level - the innovation comes from convenient asynchronous deliveries (prime lockers) and short order to delivery time (2 hour delivery). Expecting people to order something then wait days for the delivery with window of days is silly beyond extreme, and Amazon is removing that - sure the time is still not perfect for impulse buys and it is limited in locations but it is still an innovation and more importantly it isn't that difficult to see how with technology this could be improved.


This could be achieved quite easily through online retail in few years - use a phones with depth perception cameras to take a picture of your feet and it works out the feet dimensions and matches it to the actual measurements the manufacturer has provided.
Or for physical experience, have a trying 'store' with rows of lockers and you select a size on an app, and it gives you a locker number and an unique code - when you find one that fits, put the shoe back and place an online order. That way people can still try things where tactile response matters like shoes or clothes but the 'store' only ever needs to stock one of each item.

Remember, AI is not perfect at predicting size. You'd need TV quality cameras to reliably get such details of depth perception.

I don't think Tango is using AI from what I understand - I think it instead works by creating 3D representation of the world and then measuring distance between multiple points; although I could be wrong there.

[The Serbian Empire]

I fear that conservatives will be opposed to that universal basic income.

They might not have a choice. The more and more automation that goes on, the more unemployment, there will be no choice but to implement it, unless they want hundreds of millions of unemployed people on their hands. We are making our own species redundant.

I doubt they give way. I would expect them to hoard the wealth to themselves and isolate themselves on yachts.

[The Serbian Empire]

How will the mall/strip mall rents be paid if one doesn't physically sell stuff there? I'm baffled by the concept, but Bonobos probably has a good business model for taking market share in the future as people won't want to order without knowing it will fit due to shipping.


Remember, AI is not perfect at predicting size. You'd need TV quality cameras to reliably get such details of depth perception.

I don't think Tango is using AI from what I understand - I think it instead works by creating 3D representation of the world and then measuring distance between multiple points; although I could be wrong there.

Still need good lenses to get an accurate perspective. Lenses I'd be stunned if they made a smartphone have.

[Lancaster of Wessex]

They might not have a choice. The more and more automation that goes on, the more unemployment, there will be no choice but to implement it, unless they want hundreds of millions of unemployed people on their hands. We are making our own species redundant.

I doubt they give way. I would expect them to hoard the wealth to themselves and isolate themselves on yachts.

Haha they will find their asses voted out of office. Hell AI could even take over large chunks of the government.

[UCE Watchdog of the Puppets]

They might not have a choice. The more and more automation that goes on, the more unemployment, there will be no choice but to implement it, unless they want hundreds of millions of unemployed people on their hands. We are making our own species redundant.

I doubt they give way. I would expect them to hoard the wealth to themselves and isolate themselves on yachts.

By the mid-21st century, Earth, in the throes of global warming, environmental disaster, and resource depletion, needed new superpowers to govern it. The United States of America invested heavily in building the United Nations Peacekeeping Corps (UNPC) to supplement its’ own interventions in the 2050s and 60s. Simultaneously, perceiving that national governments could not for long succeed in preventing or mitigating global warming, intellectuals formed the Green World Organization to overthrow them and establish a single global government to stop climate change.

Launching terrorist attacks against national governments, the GWO spawned a global rebellion against Western preeminence called the Global Neorevolutionary Army (GNA) which solely existed to tear them down. For more than half a century they would fight the Western world and allied nations across the planet as global warming worsened. The crisis caused billions of deaths and sent even more fleeing north as refugees, in what is now known as World War III. The United Nations would ultimately expand the UNPC into the largest military force in human history, supplanting national militaries during the 2070s and 2080s as the GNA inspired rebellions against globalization and the UN itself.

The peace that followed ended in 2290 with the Butlerian Jihadists’ rebellion against mass technological unemployment in the Inner Colonies. The ensuing Colonial Civil War saw the eruption of uprisings across the Inner Colonies. The Jihadists ultimately won control of all of them and drove the UCE into flight from Earth itself in 2297 after a seven-year-long campaign that saw millions of civilian and military casualties. In the wake of the defeat and ensuing economic collapse, Secretary-General Zander Laypon drafted Julian Agricola-Nordstrom into leadership of the UCE’s war effort as Supreme Commander of the UCE. Until 2305 she led the Defense Force in first repelling Jihadist attacks on the Outer Colonies and crushing rebellions there. The UCE recaptured Earth in 2298, and scattered and defeated the main Jihadist movement in the Fourth Battle of Sigma Draconis in 2305. The war had, by this point, killed 25 billion people and led to the destruction of seven colonies, with the fatalities equivalent to nearly 50% of the prewar population. Fighting continued against the Jihadist remnants in the Inner Colonies until 2310.

[The Serbian Empire]

I doubt they give way. I would expect them to hoard the wealth to themselves and isolate themselves on yachts.

By the mid-21st century, Earth, in the throes of global warming, environmental disaster, and resource depletion, needed new superpowers to govern it. The United States of America invested heavily in building the United Nations Peacekeeping Corps (UNPC) to supplement its’ own interventions in the 2050s and 60s. Simultaneously, perceiving that national governments could not for long succeed in preventing or mitigating global warming, intellectuals formed the Green World Organization to overthrow them and establish a single global government to stop climate change.

Launching terrorist attacks against national governments, the GWO spawned a global rebellion against Western preeminence called the Global Neorevolutionary Army (GNA) which solely existed to tear them down. For more than half a century they would fight the Western world and allied nations across the planet as global warming worsened. The crisis caused billions of deaths and sent even more fleeing north as refugees, in what is now known as World War III. The United Nations would ultimately expand the UNPC into the largest military force in human history, supplanting national militaries during the 2070s and 2080s as the GNA inspired rebellions against globalization and the UN itself.

The peace that followed ended in 2290 with the Butlerian Jihadists’ rebellion against mass technological unemployment in the Inner Colonies. The ensuing Colonial Civil War saw the eruption of uprisings across the Inner Colonies. The Jihadists ultimately won control of all of them and drove the UCE into flight from Earth itself in 2297 after a seven-year-long campaign that saw millions of civilian and military casualties. In the wake of the defeat and ensuing economic collapse, Secretary-General Zander Laypon drafted Julian Agricola-Nordstrom into leadership of the UCE’s war effort as Supreme Commander of the UCE. Until 2305 she led the Defense Force in first repelling Jihadist attacks on the Outer Colonies and crushing rebellions there. The UCE recaptured Earth in 2298, and scattered and defeated the main Jihadist movement in the Fourth Battle of Sigma Draconis in 2305. The war had, by this point, killed 25 billion people and led to the destruction of seven colonies, with the fatalities equivalent to nearly 50% of the prewar population. Fighting continued against the Jihadist remnants in the Inner Colonies until 2310.

The AI was made by the rich to get richer. I bet they'd have a way to shut off the power grid.

[Novus America]

The great irony here is Sears was Amazon before there was Amazon.
Sears was before the mall boom heavily catalog based, selling all sorts of things (even houses) by mail order. Things obviously that could not entirely be stocked in stores.

What Amazon did was take Sears old catalog model and apply it to the internet.
Amazon's model is not that new or innovative in fact, it is really just a modernized version of the old Sears catalog. Interesting that Sears is dying by their own sword.

Yes but that is looking at the model at far too abstract level - the innovation comes from convenient asynchronous deliveries (prime lockers) and short order to delivery time (2 hour delivery). Expecting people to order something then wait days for the delivery with window of days is silly beyond extreme, and Amazon is removing that - sure the time is still not perfect for impulse buys and it is limited in locations but it is still an innovation and more importantly it isn't that difficult to see how with technology this could be improved.

But I think ordinary retail does have a place. For example shoes I do not order online as the sizes are hard to predict. In theory they are standard but in fact a size 9 in one brand and type might be a size 11 in another. The ability to try things out and put them on is useful.

This could be achieved quite easily through online retail in few years - use a phones with depth perception cameras to take a picture of your feet and it works out the feet dimensions and matches it to the actual measurements the manufacturer has provided.
Or for physical experience, have a trying 'store' with rows of lockers and you select a size on an app, and it gives you a locker number and an unique code - when you find one that fits, put the shoe back and place an online order. That way people can still try things where tactile response matters like shoes or clothes but the 'store' only ever needs to stock one of each item.

Oh sure Amazon does the same thing faster, but simply by using something the military invented. Amazon did not create the internet, just applied and existing model to a faster method of communication.

And as far as the last part goes, theoretically yes, but in reality such a system does not yet exist.