German Federal Election 2017

[Socialist Nordia]

In September of this year, Germany will hold its federal election to the Bundestag. Angela Merkel will lead the CDU/CSU in an attempt for her fourth term as Chancellor of Germany. The centre-right CDU/CSU is currently leading a coalition government with the centre-left SPD. These are the main parties in the election that are likely to reach the 5% threshold to receive representation.

Christian Democratic Union/ Christian Social Union: Christian democracy, liberal conservatism, pro-Europeanism

Social Democratic Party: social democracy, pro-Europeanism

The Left: democratic socialism, left-wing populism, soft Euroscepticism

Alliance '90/The Greens: green politics

Free Democratic Party: classical liberalism, pro-Europeanism

Alternative for Germany: right-wing populism, German nationalism, Euroscepticism

Here is a graph taken off of Wikipedia showing polling trends


As compared to the current Bundestag

Note: the light blue in this Bundestag diagram is the CSU, shown as separate from the CDU. It is not meant to represent AfD.

Social Democrats have had a rather large jump lately, after choosing Martin Shculz to lead the party in this election. It is very likely that either SPD or CDU/CSU will receive the plurality. There is also a good chance they will remain in a coalition together. If Merkel exceeds expectations by a good amount, she may be able to coalition with the FDP and/or Greens instead of the SPD, though this is a bit unlikely. There's also the chance that the SPD may coalition with the Left and Greens, but they will need to do quite well to make that a majority. The Alternative for Germany seems locked out of any potential coalition, and will almost surely end up in opposition to the government.

I personally hope a SPD/Left/Greens coalition forms, but I would be satisfied with the current coalition flipped to place SPD in control. I don't hate Merkel or anything though, so its not like her winning again would be the end of the world. I'm mainly hoping AfD stays as weak as possible.

So, any news, predictions, or opinions regarding the election are welcomed in this thread. What do you think about it NSG?

Note: I am not German, so don't expect me to know every intricate detail of the election

[Argentine SSR]

I'm leaning towards Die Linke, but there are certain issues I am closer to SPD.

[Community Values]

FDP seems pretty good, but who wouldn't want to go with the Reichsburger?

[Great Minarchistan]

As long as they put another fiscally orthodox in chancellory, I'm fine with German election.

[Socialist Nordia]

FDP seems pretty good, but who wouldn't want to go with the Reichsburger?

IIRC, before they lost representation, they had been closely aligned with Merkel. The FDP I mean.

[Dumb Ideologies]

I'm hoping for a good performance from AfD as part of the wider "patriotic spring". A divided EU is one that's in a weaker negotiating position for the Brexit negotiations. Might also improve general European security by putting more pressure to remedy Merkel's mass migration mistake.

Honestly my sympathies would naturally be primarily with The Left but when it comes to foreign elections I'm more interested in the possible connotations on my side of the moat.

[Sanctissima]

My guess is Merkel and the CDU will win. And to be frank, that's probably for the best. I'm not the biggest fan of Merkel, but at least she's a competent chancellor, and that's more than what can be said for some of these other candidates.

[Community Values]

FDP seems pretty good, but who wouldn't want to go with the Reichsburger?

IIRC, before they lost representation, they had been closely aligned with Merkel. The FDP I mean.

And? At this point, I don't really hate Merkel all that much.

Mainly because I don't know enough about her.

[Socialist Nordia]

IIRC, before they lost representation, they had been closely aligned with Merkel. The FDP I mean.

And? At this point, I don't really hate Merkel all that much.

Mainly because I don't know enough about her.

I didn't mean it as a bad thing, just pointing out they'll almost surely side with the CDU.

[Proctopeo]

Either The Left or the AfD, purely on the basis of euroscepticism. I don't see any major direct effect any of these parties would have on the USA, but anyone who's critical of the EU has at least one positive in my book.

[Miasto Lodz]

Most probably the status quo will be preserved with good result by AfD (>18-20 %).
Chancellor Schulz would be an absolute disaster (ultrahard Brexit+possible embargo -> cold war/open war between the EU and Anglosphere).

[Community Values]

And? At this point, I don't really hate Merkel all that much.

Mainly because I don't know enough about her.

I didn't mean it as a bad thing, just pointing out they'll almost surely side with the CDU.

I don't understand parliamentary systems. Would this mean that they forfeit their candidate and say "vote for Christian Democrats"?

[Socialist Nordia]

I didn't mean it as a bad thing, just pointing out they'll almost surely side with the CDU.

I don't understand parliamentary systems. Would this mean that they forfeit their candidate and say "vote for Christian Democrats"?

No, it means their representatives get elected, but all vote for Merkel as chancellor because their candidate never really had a chance in the first place. They get represented as a separate party, just in support of the Merkel government.

[Crylante]

Not sure really. SPD-Greens-Left seems the best idea.

[The Huskar Social Union]

I dont know that much about German Politics, but ive always liked the look of Die Linke, so i guess i would back them. SPD doesnt sound that bad either really, but again i know little about them.

[Geilinor]

CDU for me. I may have gone for Schulz before he announced his economic policy. The labor market reforms under the previous SPD government were successful.

[Vecherd]

I would like to see both the CDU/CSU and SPD get a lower share of both seats and votes as Germany (and Austria) has this awful principle of going for a grosse koalition. I would be surprised if SPD was to overtake CDU, and it seems more of a reaction like "OMG something else than Merkel is happening in politics", and SPD has already levelled off or sank in polls, but at least they should be less scared of AfD actually overtaking them. I think that FDP will get back in parliament and I do hope they do well, apart from being to cozy with the EU they are pretty damned good. The best outcome would be CDU/CSU + FDP imo,but that seems unlikely. I wouldn't mind a Jamaika koalition either though.

[Baltenstein]

Gonna vote for Merkel, probably.

Economically, Germany is doing exceptionally well, no complaints here.

Domestically, she has managed to neutralize the temporary escalation of the refugee crisis - it came at the cost of a shady deal with the Mad Sultan, but still.

Foreign relations wise, she has more expertise and international prestige to keep Europe together in the face of the terrible trio Trump/Putin/Erdogan. Schulz seems pretty much a lightweight in that regard. Also, in case of a Red-Red-Green coalition, he would have to put up with a bunch of Putinists (aka Die Linke) in his own ranks.
Merkel is going to need a more self-confident and capable French partner than that sorry clown Hollande for it, though.

Greece would probably have been kicked out of the Eurozone by now if one of the more hawkish Cristian Democrats, like Schauble or Seehofer, would be in charge instead of her.

Besides, a Red-Red-Green coalition is hugely unpopular with the German electorate and would probably be bad for Germany and Europe. Merkel's two biggest mistakes were the ill-conceived nuclear power phase out and her misjudgement of the immigrant/refugee dynamic, and Red-Red-Green has way more bleeding-heart views than her on both accounts.

With that being said, I think it's quite positive that the elections are going to be a head-to-head contest between Germany's two traditional big parties again, as opposed to the stagnation we've seen in the past few election cycles. I was kinda fearing that we would see the same sort of "Status Quo vs. National Populism" showdown we already witnessed in several European countries and the US and are about to witness in the Netherlands and France too, but it doesn't look like this will be the case.

I expect to see some Russian interference in the elections though. It happened in the US, it's currently happening in France ("Emmanuel Macron has teh gayz!" Stay classy, Russia), so we'll probably see some mud-slinging at Merkel in order to bolster the AfD's numbers in Germany too.

[Arachaea]

I like SPD and the Greens.

[Collatis]

I respect Merkel quite a bit, but ya gotta love Martin Schulz. In my ideal world there would be a SDP-Green Government, but that's extremely unlikely, so I'd be content with a continuation of the current CDU-SDP Government, though preferably with the roles switched.

Oh, and I want AfD to lose bad. Really bad.

[Herrebrugh]

Die Linke all the way. I've actually heard them use the term "anti-capitalism" in the last five years.

[Novus America]

I'm hoping for a good performance from AfD as part of the wider "patriotic spring". A divided EU is one that's in a weaker negotiating position for the Brexit negotiations. Might also improve general European security by putting more pressure to remedy Merkel's mass migration mistake.

Honestly my sympathies would naturally be primarily with The Left but when it comes to foreign elections I'm more interested in the possible connotations on my side of the moat.

Much of "The Left" are unrepentant tankies and former members of the East German KGB (Stasi).
So not necessarily liberal.

[Washington Resistance Army]

FDP seems alright.

[Baltenstein]

I'm hoping for a good performance from AfD as part of the wider "patriotic spring". A divided EU is one that's in a weaker negotiating position for the Brexit negotiations. Might also improve general European security by putting more pressure to remedy Merkel's mass migration mistake.

Honestly my sympathies would naturally be primarily with The Left but when it comes to foreign elections I'm more interested in the possible connotations on my side of the moat.

You can just support Die Linke in general then. Like the AfD, they are in favor of weakening the EU and increasing German self-isolation.

[Seradahn]

If Germany wants to break free and get rid of this Islamist hellhole they are in, vote Alternative For Germany FFS