US Gen. Election Thread FINALE - Votegeddon

[Reploid Productions]

First, the usual moddy business:
Remember guys, keep it civil and within the site rules. The banhammers will be out for blood tonight to prevent forum fires. If you cannot be civil, don't post. Tonight will no doubt stir some intense reactions out of folks, both positive and negative. THINK before you post; it is your responsibility to control yourself, or to walk away from the computer if you are not able to do so.

NSG has done, quite frankly, an AMAZING job this election cycle. Sure, there's been the usual uptick in bad behavior typical of US presidential election years, but for a race as contentious as this one has been, you guys have done extremely well overall at keeping it civil in spite of how fraught with peril it's been. So thank you to everyone on behalf of the mod team. Good job everybody, let's try and carry that trend through to the end!

So, here we go. This is it. After an election season that has been equal parts absurd and terrifying, tonight is the night. Grab your drinks if you're old enough to imbibe, for those in states where it's legalized, go take a bong hit; I suspect we're all going to need it as we watch the clock tick down and the results come in.

Clinton versus Trump.

FINAL ROUND

FIGHT!

[Jovuistan]

Here we go...

[The Liberated Territories]

ITS THE FINAL COUNTDOWN

*DUN DUN DUN DUN*

[Shonburg]

Trump leading KY of course.

[Freefall11111]

More exit poll data. 42% say the justice system is fair, 49% it's unfair towards blacks.

[Ebliania]

Oh shit!

[The Emerald Dawn]

May the fallen forgive us our sins.

[IceBuddha]

It's the end of the world as we know it.

[Zurkerx]

Gonna post this here in case no one saw:

I want to point out before you all start saying "WRONG!", that this is for fun. I heavily relied on Nate Slivers 538 Model and Larry Sabato's Crystal Ball. In no way this model is to be accurate given I don't have the statistics and all of the formulas to have calculated. This is my personal view on how I see the facts and stuff like that. You are all more than welcome to comment on this; I put a lot of work into. With that said, let's get to it.

---

So here's my election prediction for 2016 presented by Zurkerx's Unveiling Red Curtain:

Unveiling Red Curtain

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/ ... edit#gid=0

Presidency

http://www.270towin.com/maps/gxykG

Senate

http://www.270towin.com/2016-senate-election/2NN5J2

No candidate will hit 50%. Indeed, Clinton has the potential but, I don't see it happening. In fact, her cap is 50% so this is at the high end. Trump however, has a cap of 45%. He has rarely broken past 45% in the polls and that should be a telling sign in two ways. First, he failed to diversified his base to appeal to moderate voters like independents and other demographics which will cost him dearly. Second, this shows that we have a loyal base that will most likely turnout for the Donald. While Clinton holds the advantage, her voter base is not as enthusiastic as Trump's is. The area we can see this is with young voters who will vote for Clinton but, are the least likely to come out and vote in an election and given her unfavorable numbers, it will hurt her. Trump isn't helped much either.

On the right of the election results are demographic numbers in terms of percentages. The reason she'll win is because of the large turnout of Hispanic, African Americans (though lower), and women voters who oppose Trump significantly. That said, he will likely do well with white men with an educational background up to a high school education and the white vote overall.

The reason it won't be a blowout is because I believe we are underestimating the anger within this election. The Swing States, while she'll win a majority of them, will be within five points with the exception of Minnesota which really isn't a Swing State. There are many pissed off people out there that are tired of the same shit going on. They want change, regardless if it will be bad or not. However, there not enough angry voters out there to sway this election, particularly white voters, whom are declining as a percentage of the vote overall. That is a reason Trump will not do well.

Women vote more than men do so it is natural to say that this is a key voting block to get. Trump did not get memo. While indeed Democrats do better with women, shrinking the margin would help Republicans. Yet, with more single women then married women, the GOP face a difficult challenge to get the woman vote especially with Trump and his comments. Not to mention, the GOP's views don't fit with the average woman.

Then we have the Hispanic vote, which is likely to propel Clinton to victory as well. Given the GOP's stance on the issue of immigration, it is no surprise they won't take a majority of Latinos. However, because Trump is atop on the ticket and has spewed comments that turn away such a group, he is expected to get a lower margin than what Romney got (15-20% to be exact). The same for American Africans as well. In all, they'll represent 25-30% of the total vote (15% for Hispanics, 11% for Blacks so 26%).

Now, you're wondering why I haven't mentioned Gary Johnson yet, the candidate I voted for. He was going strong and is still pose to do better than any third party since Ross Perot and Ralph Nader but, he has lost steam to a series of gaffes and quite frankly, the wasting your vote mentality. Not getting in the debates was perhaps the biggest blow to the Libertarian Candidate who wanted to have an impact on this election. I can see him doing possibly better with Hispanics then Trump will do and African Americans as well. The youth seem most likely to support but, are not reliable voters. In the end, Johnson will barely get 5% (4.53%) of the vote and won't damage to the two party system will be nonexistent.

As such, I predict that Hillary Clinton will win the election (don't a lot us). While she may win this election, she won't win by no more than five percentage points in terms of the popular vote, with her garnishing 49.18% and him 44.96%. However, she will kill him in the electoral vote with her garnishing 322 and him 216. It won't be the death blow that is needed to stop the wave of populism, nationalism, and authoritarianism but, it will slow it down.

Now in the event Trump wins. This would be the case if the polls were wrong and overestimated Clinton's support and be an example of Michigan going to Bernie Sanders during the primaries where Clinton was leading. Trump's support would be a tad stronger than expected, ensuring him close victories in some of these Swing States. More women and minorities would of supported Trump than expected though this number would be small. It would also show we had underestimated the anger within this nation even though it is a minority of people.

It is different in the sense that Trump wins on the basis of the electoral vote but, not the popular vote. It would be a stunning blow to Democrats, whom might begin pushing along with other proponents of abolishing the Electoral College or reforming it at least. I didn't do one for the Senate either because I expect regardless of the results that the Democrats will take the Senate.

So where does the GOP go from here? They have to reform in order to adopt to the changing demographics. However, I can see dark times ahead for such a party that is unwilling to change. Only time will tell what the faith of the GOP will be.

And the Democrats? Indeed, the establishment has won but, Bernie Sanders influence won't wane away. It will grow due to millennial voters becoming a larger voting block. We can expect the Democrats to reform as well and that might result in their own civil war. Only time will tell what the faith of the Democrats will be.

And that's a wrap.

[Konarus]

Looking good so far.

[Yasuragi]

Well, this will be a nail-biting time for all of us.

[The Blaatschapen]

ITS THE FINAL COUNTDOWN

*DUN DUN DUN DUN*

That's Europe.

We have nothing to do with it

[Eol Sha]

I hope Clinton doesn't lose. I'm expecting a 100+ EV advantage for HRC.

[Ebliania]

(Image)

Looking good so far.

lol NH has only 57 votes

[Eol Sha]

More exit poll data. 42% say the justice system is fair, 49% it's unfair towards blacks.

Hey, I voted with the 49% in my exit poll. Cool.

[Camicon]

And so comes the beginning of the end.

[Jumalariik]

Where will you move if your preferred candidate loses?

Not on topic, but anybody gonna move out?

[Freefall11111]

Where will you move if your preferred candidate loses?

Not on topic, but anybody gonna move out?

Yes, I'm moving to Canada.

Ignore the fact that I live in the UK.

[Konarus]

I hope Clinton doesn't lose. I'm expecting a 100+ EV advantage for HRC.

Ew.

[Democratic Peoples republic of Kelvinsi]

You may have seen that I recently launched a Snapchat account, I love it. I love it. Those messages disappear all by themselves

My god that is funny

[Great Nepal]

(Image)

Looking good so far.

...but Trump has like three quarters of the vote; thats not good

[Eol Sha]

Where will you move if your preferred candidate loses?

Not on topic, but anybody gonna move out?

No. I don't quit on America.

[FelrikTheDeleted]

Godspeed gentlemen and ladies.

[Ebliania]

Where will you move if your preferred candidate loses?

Not on topic, but anybody gonna move out?

You can't if you believe either candidate's detractors there will be a nuclear war anyway.

[IceBuddha]

Where will you move if your preferred candidate loses?

Not on topic, but anybody gonna move out?

I've been in the middle of a move this election cycle, a very badly timed move. Consequently I wasn't able to get registered in my new home state of New York.