On the Republican side, Donald Trump has mystified the media and political establishment by becoming their nominee. When he entered the race last June, few people anticipated that Jeb Bush would not be the nominee, even fewer thought that the billionaire real-estate developer would vanquish not only Jeb Bush but 15 other assorted Senators and Governors. After announcing his candidacy, Trump rose to the top of the polls and never relinquished his lead. After Trump had amassed a large lead in delegates and the field dwindled to Ted Cruz and John Kasich, a movement emerged known as NeverTrump. The goal was to deny Trump enough delegates to win the nomination outright, allowing for bound delegates to become unbound and pick a nominee. The movement ultimately failed, and Trump not only won the required delegates to become the nominee, but he won the most primary votes in GOP history. Trump's rise was not without controversy however, he has picked fights with former GOP nominees Romney and McCain, he has declined to endorse Speaker Paul Ryan, and various statements from his campaign have been maligned. His proposals to ban Muslim immigration and construct a wall along the southern border, as well as his characterizations of immigrants, a gold star family, John McCain, a disabled reporter, and Megyn Kelly have been met with criticism from the media and within his own party. Trump picked Governor Mike Pence of Indiana to be his running mate, and the two were officially nominated at the Republican National Convention this July.
On the Democratic side, Hillary Rodham Clinton has emerged victorious after a bitter primary and has made history as the first female nominee of any major political party. Clinton herself was defeated by Incumbent President Barack Obama during the 2008 primary, and since her resignation as Secretary of State in 2013 it was widely expected that she would again seek the nomination of the Democratic Party and win with little opposition. However, Clinton faced a challenge from the Progressive-Left in the form of Senator Bernie Sanders. At the beginning of the primary season, it seemed that Clinton was vulnerable and perhaps could lose the nomination for a 2nd time, but her strong performance with African-Americans, Hispanics, and voters over 35 earned her a lead in pledged delegates that would eventually carry her to becoming the presumptive nominee the night before the California primary. She has had some trouble gaining the support of Sanders voters due to the polarized nature of the primary, and scandals from the DNC have further complicated her efforts to unify the base. A perception exists among voters that she is dishonest, and that narrative was continued by the FBI investigation of her unauthorized private e-mail server. Clinton picked Senator Tim Kaine of Virginia to be her running mate, and the two were officially nominated at the Democratic National Convention in July.
America is in a unique position, given the historically high negatives of both major party nominees, which has allowed for 3rd party candidates like Gary Johnson of the Libertarian Party to seize on a unusually large block of disaffected voters. He is currently polling in the low teens, and if he reaches a certain threshold, he could be the first third party to enter a Presidential Debate since Ross Perot in 1992. Johnson and his running mate William Weld are both former Republican Governors of Heavily Democratic states, and their biggest challenge has been name recognition. However, that could soon change given the nature of the Republican party and deep unhappiness from donors and some politicians over the nomination of Donald Trump. Conversely, Jill Stein of the Green Party has also shown some growth in polling which places her in the low single digits. She has been trying to reach out to angry Bernie Sanders voters, presenting herself as the progressive alternative to Hillary Clinton. Stein has adopted a Ralph Nader type strategy, proclaiming that there are no safe states and she plans to campaign across America. Stein has a limited following, but some Clinton supporters worry that she could play as a spoiler (something Stein has acknowledged and embraced) and elect Donald Trump. Stein nevertheless has campaigned on being the successor to the Sanders movement, despite Sanders endorsing Hillary Clinton. Stein and Johnson were the nominees of their respective parties in 2012.
The major party nominees remain divisive figures who present two very different visions for the United States. Trump with his America First Policy and "Make America Great Again" philosophy vs Clinton's commitment to expanding on the legacy of President Obama while adopting more progressive reforms from Bernie Sanders. Hillary is the odds on favorite to win in November, but given the anger of the electorate and unpredictable nature of this cycle...nothing is guaranteed.
Personally, #ImWithHer. But if you're on the TrumpTrain or you're FeelingTheJohnson or you're feeling more like JillNotHill or something like BernieOrBust or NeverTrump or NeverHillary...well, that's democracy. And regardless, America must make a choice.
The Tickets as of Today:
Donald Trump/ Mike Pence
Hillary Clinton/ Tim Kaine
Gary Johnson/ Bill Weld
Jill Stein/ Ajamu Baraka
(Updated With Semi-Regularity) Polls-Only Model, Electoral Odds according to Five Thirty Eight
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