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Fears grow of repeat of 2008 financial crash

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Will there be another reccession in the United States?

Yes
44
51%
No
13
15%
I don't know
10
11%
No, it won't. Suck it commies, USA USA USA USA.
12
14%
I like Totalbiscuit.
8
9%
 
Total votes : 87

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Socialist Tera
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Fears grow of repeat of 2008 financial crash

Postby Socialist Tera » Fri Jan 22, 2016 3:05 am

Fears grow of repeat of 2008 financial crash as investors run for cover
Some key terms for the uneducated:
Global equity- The large number of available mutual funds and exchange traded funds -- ETFs -- leads to the division of funds into different categories based on the types of investments a particular fund owns. The two broad categories are stock and bond funds. The term "global equity" typically describes a sub-category of funds on the stock funds side of the ledger.
Financial crash- A situation in which the value of financial institutions or assets drops rapidly. A financial crisis is often associated with a panic or a run on the banks, in which investors sell off assets or withdraw money from savings accounts with the expectation that the value of those assets will drop if they remain at a financial institution.
Macroeconomics- the branch of economics concerned with large-scale or general economic factors, such as interest rates and national productivity.




Fears that the global economy could be heading for a repeat of the 2008 financial crash have sent shockwaves through financial markets – prompting a rush to safe havens by investors.

Oil prices fell to a fresh 12-year low on Wednesday and metal prices tumbled in response to warnings that China’s slowdown could derail the global recovery at a time when central banks, which came to the rescue in the credit crunch, have only limited firepower.

As world and business leaders gathered for the annual World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, the FTSE 100 was gripped by panic selling, especially of mining and oil companies that have been hit hard by the global slowdown in manufacturing and trade. Earlier this week, China recorded the slowest rate of economic growth for 25 years.

The index dropped more than 200 points to finish the day down more than 20% from its peak of 7,122, reached in April last year. Such a 20% decline marks the beginning of a bear market.

In New York, shares on the Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 249 points down (1.56%), recovering from a 550-point-drop earlier in the day, while Brent crude dropped to $27.78 a barrel – down by about 70% from its summer 2014 level of $115 a barrel.

Stock markets in Russia, Brazil and Saudi Arabia also dived as concerns mounted that countries already badly hit by the fall in oil prices could be forced to dip further into reserves to prevent an economic crisis. Global equities have had their worst start to a year on record.

William White, a former chief economist of the Bank for International Settlements (BIS), the central bankers club, who now chairs the OECD’s review committee warned that central bankers had “used up all their ammunition”.

"The situation is worse than it was in 2007. Our macroeconomic ammunition to fight downturns is essentially all used up. Debts have continued to build up over the last eight years and they have reached such levels in every part of the world that they have become a potent cause for mischief,” he said on the eve of the event.

The BIS was one of the few organisations to warn during 2006 and 2007 about the unstable levels of bank lending that eventually led to the Lehman Brothers crash.

Concerns that the global recovery could be derailed began last summer when a devaluation of the Chinese currency sparked a meltdown on the Shanghai stock exchange. A series of economic downgrades to the Chinese and US economies since then, coupled with a rise in US interest rates, have fuelled investors’ misgivings about optimistic forecasts for a recovery in economic fortunes.

Adding to the concerns of a sharp downgrade in global growth this year, a survey for the consultants PwC before the Davos meeting revealed that two-thirds of chief executives saw more threats facing their businesses than three years ago. And the head of the Swiss banking giant UBS, Axel Weber, turned the screw by warning that the world was stuck in an era of low growth.

Source:
http://www.theguardian.com/business/201 ... are_btn_fb
What do you think of the report? Is this the United States going to have another repression or is it another bad day on the stockmarket? Personally, I don't know what to believe, I thought the United States had recovered and it was on the way to a boom in the country but the United States seems to be collapsing slowly. Also, if it is collapsing, who is to blame?
Last edited by Socialist Tera on Fri Jan 22, 2016 3:32 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Alyakia
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Postby Alyakia » Fri Jan 22, 2016 3:07 am

even the capitalist economics admit that capitalism operations on a cycle of growth and recession. the communists say the collapses will get progressively closer together and worse. death is certain.
Last edited by Alyakia on Fri Jan 22, 2016 3:07 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Postby Socialist Tera » Fri Jan 22, 2016 3:08 am

Alyakia wrote:even the capitalist economics admit that capitalism operations on a cycle of growth and recession. the communists say the collapses will get progressively closer together and worse. death is certain.

I have studied basic Keynesian economics. I understand the method. I think it will get worse and worse but each boom will be smaller. I just though the boom would be bigger.
Last edited by Socialist Tera on Fri Jan 22, 2016 3:13 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Postby Risottia » Fri Jan 22, 2016 3:13 am

Socialist Tera wrote:
Alyakia wrote:even the capitalist economics admit that capitalism operations on a cycle of growth and recession. the communists say the collapses will get progressively closer together and worse. death is certain.

I have studied basic Keynesian economics.

You wrote "repression" instead of "recession" in the poll, tho.

Anyway, I heard statistical analysis of previous cycles point out that a cycle of recession after a seve-year growth cycle is likely.
I don't think it will hit the US or Europe as hard as it did in 2008, though. Especially when the oil prices are so low, which means that Europe (which is a huge net importer of oil) is going to see its production costs drop, which - coupled with a weakened euro - means more competitiveness on the export market and more purchasing power for the internal and import market (which is good for the US economy too).
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Postby The Serbian Empire » Fri Jan 22, 2016 3:58 am

Risottia wrote:
Socialist Tera wrote:I have studied basic Keynesian economics.

You wrote "repression" instead of "recession" in the poll, tho.

Anyway, I heard statistical analysis of previous cycles point out that a cycle of recession after a seve-year growth cycle is likely.
I don't think it will hit the US or Europe as hard as it did in 2008, though. Especially when the oil prices are so low, which means that Europe (which is a huge net importer of oil) is going to see its production costs drop, which - coupled with a weakened euro - means more competitiveness on the export market and more purchasing power for the internal and import market (which is good for the US economy too).

Secondly, the US debt crisis caused by oil prices this low is really more a hard recession in oil shale areas of Texas and North Dakota.
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Postby The Republic of American Freedom » Fri Jan 22, 2016 4:00 am

Don't worry I already have enough food, water, guns and gold to survive this.
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Postby Socialist Tera » Fri Jan 22, 2016 4:10 am

The Serbian Empire wrote:
Risottia wrote:You wrote "repression" instead of "recession" in the poll, tho.

Anyway, I heard statistical analysis of previous cycles point out that a cycle of recession after a seve-year growth cycle is likely.
I don't think it will hit the US or Europe as hard as it did in 2008, though. Especially when the oil prices are so low, which means that Europe (which is a huge net importer of oil) is going to see its production costs drop, which - coupled with a weakened euro - means more competitiveness on the export market and more purchasing power for the internal and import market (which is good for the US economy too).

Secondly, the US debt crisis caused by oil prices this low is really more a hard recession in oil shale areas of Texas and North Dakota.

Do you think the areas would stay strong republican?
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The Serbian Empire
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Postby The Serbian Empire » Fri Jan 22, 2016 4:21 am

Socialist Tera wrote:
The Serbian Empire wrote:Secondly, the US debt crisis caused by oil prices this low is really more a hard recession in oil shale areas of Texas and North Dakota.

Do you think the areas would stay strong republican?

Of course, they're rural enough that their social values of being pro-gun and often anti-LGBT wouldn't disappear overnight.
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Brickistan
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Postby Brickistan » Fri Jan 22, 2016 5:21 am

Not really surprising that the economy would crash again soon.

We haven't learned anything from the 2008 crash. The rich are getting richer, the poor are getting poorer and it's all business as usual.

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Postby Uxupox » Fri Jan 22, 2016 5:44 am

Brickistan wrote:Not really surprising that the economy would crash again soon.

We haven't learned anything from the 2008 crash. The rich are getting richer, the poor are getting poorer and it's all business as usual.


Don't think this has something to do with the next crash on the stock market.
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Postby The Florists Union » Fri Jan 22, 2016 5:52 am

I know the reason.

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Postby Washington Resistance Army » Fri Jan 22, 2016 5:57 am

If we build a wall around the economy it'll be fine.
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Brickistan
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Postby Brickistan » Fri Jan 22, 2016 6:12 am

Uxupox wrote:
Brickistan wrote:Not really surprising that the economy would crash again soon.

We haven't learned anything from the 2008 crash. The rich are getting richer, the poor are getting poorer and it's all business as usual.


Don't think this has something to do with the next crash on the stock market.


Actually, it does. Sort of, anyway...

The rich, the (in)famous One Percent, has a lot of their wealth tied up in stocks. Far more, in fact, than the average worker who typically has little, if anything, to do with such trading.

The worldwide stock market is nothing but one huge bubble, waiting to burst. We should have popped it after 2008 and reined the banks and traders in, but instead we bailed them out and let them continue as if nothing had happened. And so, money has continued to accumulate in the hands of the few and the bubble has grown even bigger.

In effect, the current boom'n'bust cycle is being driven by a few insanely wealthy individuals. No.. Scratch that... In actuality, it's being driven by a bunch of computers, owned by investment firms and funds who're in turn owned by a few insanely wealthy individuals. They're getting richer, riding ever higher on the booms while offloading the cost of the busts on you and me.

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Postby Cinia » Fri Jan 22, 2016 7:34 am

Oh definitely we'll see another financial crash, which will probably be bigger than that of 2008. I'm also one of those people who think that pretty soon the value of the dollar will be nothing (which unfortunately, the US Dollar is the secondary currency of a vast, vast majority of other countries) so when that bottoms out, we'll be screwed.
The Serbian Empire wrote:
Risottia wrote:You wrote "repression" instead of "recession" in the poll, tho.

Anyway, I heard statistical analysis of previous cycles point out that a cycle of recession after a seve-year growth cycle is likely.
I don't think it will hit the US or Europe as hard as it did in 2008, though. Especially when the oil prices are so low, which means that Europe (which is a huge net importer of oil) is going to see its production costs drop, which - coupled with a weakened euro - means more competitiveness on the export market and more purchasing power for the internal and import market (which is good for the US economy too).

Secondly, the US debt crisis caused by oil prices this low is really more a hard recession in oil shale areas of Texas and North Dakota.


Thirdly, oil will probably not be the cause of another one, just saying. It will, no undoubtedly, will probably cause by the banks... again...

Honestly, we're not in any better of a position than we were back in 2008, except the banks aren't putting all our money into real estate out west that will bottom out and selling triple A loans that they know will flop.

If we're going to talk about this issue, we should probably think about how easy this type of a scenario is, one of an economic recession/collapse. If a catalyst were to actually cause one of our banks to fail, there will be a domino effect that will probably wipe out the other banks, causing people to loose billions, just like back in 2008. (You can probably tell I'm a Bernie Sanders supporter).
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Postby Dooom35796821595 » Fri Jan 22, 2016 7:44 am

It's fine, just go about your buisness as normal.

And I defiantly took my money out of the stock market at the right time. :)
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Postby Ifreann » Fri Jan 22, 2016 7:46 am

Washington Resistance Army wrote:If we build a wall around the economy it'll be fine.

And make the recession pay for it!

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Postby Khadgar » Fri Jan 22, 2016 7:48 am

Is there a massive bubble in any given sector? No? Then it won't be a repeat of 2008 and no one with sense should suggest it is.

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Postby Ifreann » Fri Jan 22, 2016 7:50 am

Khadgar wrote:Is there a massive bubble in any given sector? No? Then it won't be a repeat of 2008 and no one with sense should suggest it is.

But buy gold, just in case.

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Postby Kilobugya » Fri Jan 22, 2016 7:51 am

Capitalism is ridden with crisis since its beginning - it had dozens of crisis in just two centuries, the trend will not stop. And none of the real underlying problems that leaded to the 2008 crash were solved - banks and finance are still mostly unregulated, stock markets are still disconnected form real economy, income inequality is even increasing, US trade deficit wasn't reduced, ... so it's just a matter of time (and that means, months or years, not decades) before the next big crash. Until we change the system.
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Postby Khadgar » Fri Jan 22, 2016 7:54 am

Ifreann wrote:
Khadgar wrote:Is there a massive bubble in any given sector? No? Then it won't be a repeat of 2008 and no one with sense should suggest it is.

But buy gold, just in case.


I'm not even going to look at my 401k until the fucking loons on Wall Street stop being stupid.

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Postby The Grim Reaper » Fri Jan 22, 2016 10:05 am

Khadgar wrote:Is there a massive bubble in any given sector? No? Then it won't be a repeat of 2008 and no one with sense should suggest it is.


The OP article does seem to suggest, either as an editorial line or because of reality, that there is a bubble in the oil market. Revaluation of oil with the Saudi refusal to stick to quotas seems to have revealed a fairly gaping maw between where OPEC was holding prices, and where oil should be.

I don't have the necessary economic background to argue whether or not that's a bubble in the sense of the housing bubble, but I can argue that the oil market is going to be restructuring around a fairly obvious disparity in the prices we as a global market were working around, and where the unrestricted firesales of modern Saudi Arabia are forcing it to.
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Postby Pope Joan » Fri Jan 22, 2016 10:08 am

What we do not have now, that we had in 2007, is a costly and unnecessary war accompanied by a reduction in revenue (deep tax cuts for the rich).

So no, the 2007 crash will not happen again (unless and until the idiot GOP create it under some new regime).
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Postby Kelinfort » Fri Jan 22, 2016 10:12 am

Alyakia wrote:even the capitalist economics admit that capitalism operations on a cycle of growth and recession. the communists say the collapses will get progressively closer together and worse. death is certain.

Central planning has no flaws as evidence by Venezuela.

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Postby Kilobugya » Fri Jan 22, 2016 10:21 am

Kelinfort wrote:Central planning has no flaws as evidence by Venezuela.


Venezuela didn't implement central planning at all, and recent economical crisis in Venezuela is due to falling oil price in a very heavily oil-based economy and artificially created scarcity as a political tactic from the opposition.
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Postby Kelinfort » Fri Jan 22, 2016 10:26 am

Kilobugya wrote:
Kelinfort wrote:Central planning has no flaws as evidence by Venezuela.


Venezuela didn't implement central planning at all, and recent economical crisis in Venezuela is due to falling oil price in a very heavily oil-based economy and artificially created scarcity as a political tactic from the opposition.

As opposed to price ceilings the government created? It's obvious the government used the high price of oil to buy foreign goods because their price controls effectively killed domestic production of food and other goods. Now that the boom days are gone, they cannot afford to import all their goods. As a result, either the prices will go up or there will be massive shortages.

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