World War 3, possible?

[Keronians]

You know, people used to say the same thing in 1914.

Funny as it is, their weapons of mass destruction were battleships. They too had races to see who could build the bigger, better guns. Trade and communication worldwide was on the rise, how could war break out?

Ah well, give enough countries nukes and we'll have a third act in no time.

The only thing that prevents a world war is really a unipolar world. Bipolar worlds are unlikely to have mass conflicts either (although there will be numerous proxy wars).

MAD is a pretty good deterrent nevertheless, though.

[Grenartia]

Yes, but they lack range & their only friends, if they even still are the DPRK's friends, are unlikely to help them.
North Korea is capable of using military force to defend it's own existence, but beyond that North Korea can do little but waste it's own resources.

Yeah, I don't think North Korea is a grave threat. I do think that American interests face opposition (I wouldn't describe them as "threats" - they're only "threats" if you choose to make them so), but I don't believe that there are great, maniacal forces in the world threatening the West these days. That includes North Korea.

North Korea might use nukes if they develop feasible ones and if the US pushes them into a corner. Otherwise, they probably won't.

Except, if we strike first, we've got to deal with China.

Believe it or not, the NK/SK/US/China situation is more or less the same as it was during the Korean War, save for technological advances on all sides. Sure, in a conventional war, and assuming no Chinese intervention, US and SK would wipe the floor with the KPA. But assuming China won't intervene on NK's behalf is like saying that if Russia invaded Canada, the US wouldn't intervene.

Now, with China involved, things get a little more complicated. NK does have one of the largest militaries in the world, but that doesn't mean much when most are armed with little better than sticks and stones (and what decent weapons they do have probably are so sparse there's little to no options for replacement if a particular weapon gets damaged or destroyed). China, on the other hand, has not only numbers, but decent equipment, and options for replacement.

Essentially, you have a Zerg Rush. While US/ROK have the technological superiority, DPRK/PRC have sheer numbers on their side. Not to mention that if things get REALLY bad for NK, I don't think they wouldn't hesitate to try to use their nukes (potentially leading to a US/PRC nuclear exchange).

Basically, if we strike first, shit WILL hit the fan for at least one (and probably both) sides. If I, an 18 year old with little more than a high school diploma to my name, can figure this out in the space of the 10 minutes it took me to compose this response, I'm fairly sure that both the US AND China have figured it out, and in even greater detail, so there's little to no chance of a US first strike (of any nature) on NK.

tl;dr: Due to the nature of the beast, there is no chance of the US launching an unprovoked attack against North Korea.

1. I don't think it's likely China would intervene to protect North Korea. I think China recognizes that NOKO is more of a strategic liability than asset for the PRC. 2. That said, I think it is possible China could use retaliation against a US-led strike against NOKO as a pretense for Chinese invasion of Taiwan (as a justification for other, more strategically significant Chinese military objectives). But NOKO and China aren't great friends these days.

3. China could dissuade NOKO from using their nukes if those really in charge of NOKO (that means the intelligent people besides Jim jong un) are persuaded that some sort of lower-risk compromise can be reached. 4. I also don't think that China is that much technologically inferior to the US in terms of military equipment. they're access-denial missiles and antisatellite technology could neutralize a lot of US assets in the region (US naval approach from the Pacific is strategically impossible - they'd have to attack from the Indian Ocean-->South china sea). I think conventional warfare could get bogged down in the region and both nations could face a protracted war (probably a naval conflict) in Asia, with a real possibility that either side could defeat the other in Asia (and essentially no possibility that China would, in the foreseeable future, invade any portion of the US - continental or not).

5. It's still a possibility of course, and I wouldn't put any stupid decision past US or Chinese policy makers - 6. they're on a collision course for an avoidable world war now, from what I've read. 7. I think that the chances are high that the US could militarily intervene in North Korea 8. (well, probably not if the US economy continues in decline, but maybe even then as assets are redeployed to the asia pivot, or if the US uses the war as a diversion for the public's economic concern), just not that it's a strategic choice to do.

1. NK and PRC are allies. China is rather obliged to defend NK.

2. At which point, America would have justification for direct war against PRC, as ROC is our ally, whom we are obliged to defend.

3. I'm not sure that's very likely. Especially if large swaths of NK territory have been occupied, and say, Pyongyang is threatened.

4. China is basically trying to make inferior copies of our shit. Basically, the difference between your standard American equipment and your standard Chinese equipment is like the difference between this and this.

5. And its entirely possible that I'm the Royal Baby.

6. PRC and USA are only on a collision course for war in the same way that Spain and Germany are.

7. Only if we're provoked.

8. The US economy is in decline? Since when?

Not a lot we can do about it? What are you, Canadian?

You can call me a lot of things. A son of a bitch. A bastard. A fucking piece of shit. But don't you ever. I repeat, don't you ever call me a Canadian!

Sigging.

[Arumdaum]

Indeed. While crazy, and certainly evil, NK (or at least its leadership) is not that stupid.

How's NK crazy?

It's always repeated and it's an easy way to dismiss North Korea's actions (although inaccurate), but I don't think I've ever really heard anyone actually answer that question or defend that position.

[Arumdaum]

There's no need to be worried about NK. They aren't as suicidal as people often portray them as.

They might be if the US strikes first.

The most likely way a conflict would start on the peninsula again is through an American intervention. North Korea wouldn't invade South Korea or Japan.

What makes you think they'd be suicidal? If the US invades North Korea, the leadership of North Korea would pretty much already know that it's the end for them. What point would there be in simply making things worse for themselves and their people by nuking, say, Guam?

[United commonwealth of ayrshire]

US and UK launch cruise missiles on Syria, Iran drops missiles on Israel. There we go. ;/

We're not doing that anymore, it's only the Yanks.

[Aquafireland]

The tyrants might just be murdered, but we don't really know if it will die down or not.

[Arumdaum]

They might be if the US strikes first.

Except, if we strike first, we've got to deal with China.

Believe it or not, the NK/SK/US/China situation is more or less the same as it was during the Korean War, save for technological advances on all sides. Sure, in a conventional war, and assuming no Chinese intervention, US and SK would wipe the floor with the KPA. But assuming China won't intervene on NK's behalf is like saying that if Russia invaded Canada, the US wouldn't intervene.

Not necessarily. While Canada is huge trading partner for the United States, as well as a country it's obligated to defend through NATO, China doesn't really have such relations with North Korea, which it largely views as a 'spoiled child' whom it doesn't like, although it is obligated to offer "military and other assistance by all means at its disposal" by the Sino-Korean Mutual Aid and Cooperation Friendship Treaty.

China actually has much larger trade relations with South Korea than its northern neighbor, with South Korea being China's fourth largest export partner, and its second largest import partner.

However, the treaty expires in 2021 (although it'll likely be renewed for another twenty year period), but both parties are allowed to cancel the treaty at specified five-year intervals.

The situation isn't very similar either. Chinese manufacturing has really expanded, and military spending has gone up a particularly huge amount, making modern China nothing like the agrarian and backwards China of the 1950s, while the US has advanced on to become a post-industrial society.

South Korea is now militarily much more stronger than North Korea, and much richer too (the average person in SK makes 20x as much as his northern brother PPP, 50x as much nominal). Prior to the outbreak of the Korean War, North Korea possessed much more weapons, being armed by the Soviet Union, while the US denied South Korea military support due to the belief that ROK president Syngman Rhee would invade the north in order to reunify the peninsula, and the north had been developed by the Japanese as an industrial hub (although this turned out to be useless later on, when

On 12 August 1950, the USAF dropped 625 tons of bombs on North Korea; two weeks later, the daily tonnage increased to some 800 tons.[277] U.S. warplanes dropped more napalm and bombs on North Korea than they did during the whole Pacific campaign of World War II.[278]

As a result, almost every substantial building in North Korea was destroyed.[279] The war's highest-ranking American POW, US Major General William F. Dean,[280] reported that most of the North Korean cities and villages he saw were either rubble or snow-covered wastelands.[281][282] US Air Force General Curtis LeMay commented, "we burned down every town in North Korea and South Korea, too."[283]

), with South Korea being largely agrarian. Now however, South Korea's economy is much more advanced. Even without the US, SK could wipe the floor with North Korea, and its current military spending alone is roughly three times the size of North Korea's nominal GDP.

Now, with China involved, things get a little more complicated. NK does have one of the largest militaries in the world, but that doesn't mean much when most are armed with little better than sticks and stones (and what decent weapons they do have probably are so sparse there's little to no options for replacement if a particular weapon gets damaged or destroyed). China, on the other hand, has not only numbers, but decent equipment, and options for replacement.

Essentially, you have a Zerg Rush. While US/ROK have the technological superiority, DPRK/PRC have sheer numbers on their side. Not to mention that if things get REALLY bad for NK, I don't think they wouldn't hesitate to try to use their nukes (potentially leading to a US/PRC nuclear exchange).

North Korea's numbers don't really matter much when you realize that North Korea can't afford to call up 40% of its population to fight, while South Korea can largely afford to call up more troops, with its larger population (more than twice NK's size), larger economy, and larger industrial and war-making capacity.

I mean, what about the food? Who'll work on the collective farms, the sotoji, or the factories? North Korea's supplies would run out in a flash, and the current food situation would turn just abysmal.

Not to mention, the rate of desertion would just as horrible for the North Koreans, particularly for those that come from areas which speak the Seoul and Gangwon dialects, who would likely be able to blend in with the rest of society. Many North Koreans know that the South has much better living standards, and especially once actually seeing how much better life is in the south, wouldn't hesitate to trade having to fight a futile fight for a better life.

The DPRK doesn't have sheer numbers on its side unless the PRC directly intervenes with millions of troops.

What makes you think North Korea would use nukes in such a situation?

[Grenartia]

Indeed. While crazy, and certainly evil, NK (or at least its leadership) is not that stupid.

How's NK crazy?

It's always repeated and it's an easy way to dismiss North Korea's actions (although inaccurate), but I don't think I've ever really heard anyone actually answer that question or defend that position.

Blatant human rights abuses, its ridiculous propoganda, the need to threaten its population so that they can suck the leadership's massive imaginary boner, etc.

Need I say more?

They might be if the US strikes first.

The most likely way a conflict would start on the peninsula again is through an American intervention. North Korea wouldn't invade South Korea or Japan.

What makes you think they'd be suicidal? If the US invades North Korea, the leadership of North Korea would pretty much already know that it's the end for them. What point would there be in simply making things worse for themselves and their people by nuking, say, Guam?

Except, they wouldn't nuke Guam. If I were in charge, and I were batshit insane enough to not surrender to the US, I'd try to make a sort of nuclear Maginot Line. Anything to slow or stop their advance.

Except, if we strike first, we've got to deal with China.

Believe it or not, the NK/SK/US/China situation is more or less the same as it was during the Korean War, save for technological advances on all sides. Sure, in a conventional war, and assuming no Chinese intervention, US and SK would wipe the floor with the KPA. But assuming China won't intervene on NK's behalf is like saying that if Russia invaded Canada, the US wouldn't intervene.

Not necessarily. While Canada is huge trading partner for the United States, as well as a country it's obligated to defend through NATO, China doesn't really have such relations with North Korea, which it largely views as a 'spoiled child' whom it doesn't like, although it is obligated to offer "military and other assistance by all means at its disposal" by the Sino-Korean Mutual Aid and Cooperation Friendship Treaty.

China actually has much larger trade relations with South Korea than its northern neighbor, with South Korea being China's fourth largest export partner, and its second largest import partner.

However, the treaty expires in 2021 (although it'll likely be renewed for another twenty year period), but both parties are allowed to cancel the treaty at specified five-year intervals.

The situation isn't very similar either. Chinese manufacturing has really expanded, and military spending has gone up a particularly huge amount, making modern China nothing like the agrarian and backwards China of the 1950s, while the US has advanced on to become a post-industrial society.

South Korea is now militarily much more stronger than North Korea, and much richer too (the average person in SK makes 20x as much as his northern brother PPP, 50x as much nominal). Prior to the outbreak of the Korean War, North Korea possessed much more weapons, being armed by the Soviet Union, while the US denied South Korea military support due to the belief that ROK president Syngman Rhee would invade the north in order to reunify the peninsula, and the north had been developed by the Japanese as an industrial hub (although this turned out to be useless later on, when

On 12 August 1950, the USAF dropped 625 tons of bombs on North Korea; two weeks later, the daily tonnage increased to some 800 tons.[277] U.S. warplanes dropped more napalm and bombs on North Korea than they did during the whole Pacific campaign of World War II.[278]

As a result, almost every substantial building in North Korea was destroyed.[279] The war's highest-ranking American POW, US Major General William F. Dean,[280] reported that most of the North Korean cities and villages he saw were either rubble or snow-covered wastelands.[281][282] US Air Force General Curtis LeMay commented, "we burned down every town in North Korea and South Korea, too."[283]

), with South Korea being largely agrarian. Now however, South Korea's economy is much more advanced. Even without the US, SK could wipe the floor with North Korea, and its current military spending alone is roughly three times the size of North Korea's nominal GDP.

Now, with China involved, things get a little more complicated. NK does have one of the largest militaries in the world, but that doesn't mean much when most are armed with little better than sticks and stones (and what decent weapons they do have probably are so sparse there's little to no options for replacement if a particular weapon gets damaged or destroyed). China, on the other hand, has not only numbers, but decent equipment, and options for replacement.

Essentially, you have a Zerg Rush. While US/ROK have the technological superiority, DPRK/PRC have sheer numbers on their side. Not to mention that if things get REALLY bad for NK, I don't think they wouldn't hesitate to try to use their nukes (potentially leading to a US/PRC nuclear exchange).

North Korea's numbers don't really matter much when you realize that North Korea can't afford to call up 40% of its population to fight, while South Korea can largely afford to call up more troops, with its larger population (more than twice NK's size), larger economy, and larger industrial and war-making capacity.

I mean, what about the food? Who'll work on the collective farms, the sotoji, or the factories? North Korea's supplies would run out in a flash, and the current food situation would turn just abysmal.

Not to mention, the rate of desertion would just as horrible for the North Koreans, particularly for those that come from areas which speak the Seoul and Gangwon dialects, who would likely be able to blend in with the rest of society. Many North Koreans know that the South has much better living standards, and especially once actually seeing how much better life is in the south, wouldn't hesitate to trade having to fight a futile fight for a better life.

The DPRK doesn't have sheer numbers on its side unless the PRC directly intervenes with millions of troops.

What makes you think North Korea would use nukes in such a situation?

I concede. Except for the bit about using nukes, which I explained above.

[Australasia]

US and UK launch cruise missiles on Syria, Iran drops missiles on Israel. There we go. ;/

We're not doing that anymore, it's only the Yanks.

And France perhaps.

[Imperial Mexiko]

Most likely!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[Starkiller101]

Most likely!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Yeah it will happen

[Divair]

Most likely!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Yeah it will happen

No it won't.

[Australasia]

Most likely!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Yeah it will happen

Nope. And I doubt it ever will.