Republican Primary Megathread (poll now updated)

[The Archregimancy]

Mod Edit: This has now been designated as the Iowa (Which you've really outta try) Caucuses Megathread. Please bring all Trouble (with a capital T that rhymes with P, that stands for politics) here. -NERV

Mod Edit 2: New Poll clearly needed....

The 2012 Republican Iowa Caucuses are on January 3rd. Many are wondering who will win the first caucus of the election. Who is your guess?

[Tubbsalot]

Lol @ everyone voting Ron Paul. Wishful thinking is such a powerful thing.

[Briutannia]

Lol @ everyone voting Ron Paul. Wishful thinking is such a powerful thing.

Well he's at 22% to Romneys 24% and there's still the unfactored Democrat vote and the undecided, and considering Paul has the best ground team...

It'll be close, but I think he can pull it off - unless the PPP poll tonight tells us otherwise.

[Tubbsalot]

Sure he can pull it off - but Romney is the overwhelming favourite, unless people get real tactical real fast.

[Thatius]

Paul might pull it off, I heard. Something like 40% of the voters were still unsure of who they were going to vote for as of now.
I think Romney will win, but it will be close.

[Kvatchdom]

Ron Paul's the least crazy and evil candidate, so hopefully him.

[Detris]

Ron Paul's the least crazy and evil candidate, so hopefully him.

That I agree with.

[Grave_n_idle]

The 2012 Republican Iowa Caucuses are tomorrow on January 2nd. Many are wondering who will win the first caucus of the election. Who is your guess?

Probably Romney. Bad field, all in all, though. Not one of them has really energised the base.

[Ashmoria]

they are on tuesday jan 3 but whos counting?

i expect romney to win but i would like to see the evangelicals get behind rick perry as the "non-mormon" candidate (santorum is catholic, gingrich is catholic and an philanderer, bachmann is a woman, huntsman is mormon, paul is not a culture warrior). i am hoping that all the evangelical churches preached a sermon of "religion is more important than intelligence in a presidential candidate"

[Grave_n_idle]

Ron Paul's the least crazy and evil candidate, so hopefully him.

The question is more about who you think will win, than who you want to.

Ron Paul has a decent following, but no one ever votes for him. He's perennially unelectable.

[Augarundus]

Unless Ron Paul's support falls massively tomorrow, he has strategically won a great victory in Iowa; Paul has proven that a candidate rejected by the Republican party's leadership can cobble together substantial support.

There is a possibility he will win Iowa. Mitt Romney is more likely, however, and, when other Neocons begin dropping out (I'm looking at Bachmann), Romney will begin absorbing their numbers. They won't flock to the intelligent paleoconservative Paul.

[Emporer Pudu]

Hermann Cain is not running for President anymore so he probably won't win the caucus.

[Detris]

Hermann Cain is not running for President anymore so he probably won't win the caucus.

Actually they announced they would be including him in the caucuses. I don't really know why.

[Greater Mackonia]

Ron Paul's the least crazy and evil candidate, so hopefully him.

[Detris]

they are on tuesday jan 3 but whos counting?

i expect romney to win but i would like to see the evangelicals get behind rick perry as the "non-mormon" candidate (santorum is catholic, gingrich is catholic and an philanderer, bachmann is a woman, huntsman is mormon, paul is not a culture warrior). i am hoping that all the evangelical churches preached a sermon of "religion is more important than intelligence in a presidential candidate"

Oops! I must have had a bad source (curse you CNN).

[Aesthetica]

Hermann Cain is not running for President anymore so he probably won't win the caucus.

Actually they announced they would be including him in the caucuses. I don't really know why.

Because even though he's out of the running due to the taint of scandal...

He's not batshit insane, a war mongering loon, or senile, and they thought it would make a nice change to have a candidate like that on the republicrat list?

[Angleter]

Somehow Santorum has muddled his way into third in the Iowa polls. Either way, it's probably still Romney vs Paul.

[Sane Outcasts]

The "anyone but Romney" effect that somehow pervades the race may give Paul a boost, but I can't tell if that will be enough to overcome Romney's support or not. So, I'm saying Romney will take the state in a close race and definitely pull ahead of Paul nationally once one of the other candidates finally drops out.

[Orlkjestad]

I wish it were Jon Huntsman, he's the only sane one. But it will probably be Romney. Paul is a complete wacko, even if his foreign policy views are enlightened, Santorum is so conservative in social issues, he makes the Amish look like Haight-Ashbury hippies, Bachmann is Palin Pt. 2, complete with ignorance, Gingrich got beaten down, Cain lost his window of opportunity to convince voters, Perry is the equivalent of Yosemite Sam, Roemer can't get any donations, and my favorite, Huntsman, is too moderate to win the caucuses, though he could win the general election.

[Grave_n_idle]

Unless Ron Paul's support falls massively tomorrow...

Have you watched Ron Paul over the last few years? Or decades?

He can get support, but not actual voters. They always evaporate at the booth.

[The Floridian Coast]

Ron Paul has a very good shot because his supporters are most devoted. No one is enthusiastic about Romney. Even the Republicans who will vote for him just see him as "the only likely guy to beat Obama can't we just please beat Obama come on guys".

Now will he get the nomination? I doubt it. I hope Paul mounts a powerful campaign though - I support Obama so I'd rather than GOP have a schism. Paul winning Iowa will not make him the nominee though, it will make Iowa irrelevant. But I believe he will win.

[Grave_n_idle]

The "anyone but Romney" effect that somehow pervades the race may give Paul a boost, but I can't tell if that will be enough to overcome Romney's support or not. So, I'm saying Romney will take the state in a close race and definitely pull ahead of Paul nationally once one of the other candidates finally drops out.

Romney is going to find a hard time courting the evangelical vote... but not as hard as Ron 'pro-abortion' Paul courting Catholics.

[The Floridian Coast]

I wish it were Jon Huntsman, he's the only sane one. But it will probably be Romney. Paul is a complete wacko, even if his foreign policy views are enlightened, Santorum is so conservative in social issues, he makes the Amish look like Haight-Ashbury hippies, Bachmann is Palin Pt. 2, complete with ignorance, Gingrich got beaten down, Cain lost his window of opportunity to convince voters, Perry is the equivalent of Yosemite Sam, Roemer can't get any donations, and my favorite, Huntsman, is too moderate to win the caucuses, though he could win the general election.

To put it more simply: Bachmann is dumbest, Gingrich is most evil (as a politician) and Santorum is most evil (as a person). Perry and Cain had a short 15 minutes of fame that's damn well gone now.

I wouldn't call Paul a wacko, I just think he has views that would have worked half a century ago but don't work now. Huntsman is indeed the only moderate and it's a shame he was marginalized.

[Grave_n_idle]

Ron Paul has a very good shot because his supporters are most devoted.

Half a million devoted voters are unlikely to sway an election.

[The Floridian Coast]

but not as hard as Ron 'pro-abortion' Paul courting Catholics.

........what?