NATION

PASSWORD

chances of a legendary

The place to wheel and deal, talk shop, and build up your dream deck!
User avatar
Elvatoes
Attaché
 
Posts: 85
Founded: Jul 13, 2021
New York Times Democracy

chances of a legendary

Postby Elvatoes » Tue May 24, 2022 2:52 am

what are the chances of getting a legendary card from a pack?
i never drink and drive cuz i might spill my drink, i failed the breathalyser so they took me to the clink

User avatar
The Orwell Society
Minister
 
Posts: 2241
Founded: Apr 16, 2022
Psychotic Dictatorship

Postby The Orwell Society » Tue May 24, 2022 9:51 am

I have only received five in all my months of playing, and I have been playing since October of last year.
The Orwell Society
Straight Male | Political Alignment: Centrist leaning conservative | NSGP Alignment: Independent | Proud Wellspringer, join The Wellspring today!

A vision without action is just a daydream

User avatar
Neo Mida Gals
Attaché
 
Posts: 74
Founded: Oct 08, 2021
Ex-Nation

Postby Neo Mida Gals » Tue May 24, 2022 9:54 am

Since i Joined the game i only received two legendary cards

User avatar
Neo Mida Gals
Attaché
 
Posts: 74
Founded: Oct 08, 2021
Ex-Nation

Postby Neo Mida Gals » Tue May 24, 2022 9:58 am

The Orwell Society wrote:I have only received five in all my months of playing, and I have been playing since October of last year.

And i since July and received only two:/

User avatar
Bormiar
Ambassador
 
Posts: 1566
Founded: Mar 25, 2019
Inoffensive Centrist Democracy

Postby Bormiar » Tue May 24, 2022 10:01 am

There's an equal chance of every card. At least that's how it used to be.

So if there's 169 legendary cards, and about 170k S2 cards. That's a 0.0994% chance; i.e. about 1 / 1000 cards. Or 1 / 200 packs opened. Or 1 / 1000 issues answered.

This isn't accounting for CTE cards, which are rarer. So this is a low bound on the chance.
Last edited by Bormiar on Tue May 24, 2022 10:02 am, edited 1 time in total.

User avatar
Sotoak
Bureaucrat
 
Posts: 45
Founded: May 03, 2022
Ex-Nation

Postby Sotoak » Tue May 24, 2022 10:02 am

Bormiar wrote:There's an equal chance of every card. At least that's how it used to be.

So if there's 169 legendary cards, and about 170k S2 cards. That's a 0.0994% chance.

Which means you have to make 1006 attempts

User avatar
Bormiar
Ambassador
 
Posts: 1566
Founded: Mar 25, 2019
Inoffensive Centrist Democracy

Postby Bormiar » Tue May 24, 2022 10:03 am

Sotoak wrote:
Bormiar wrote:There's an equal chance of every card. At least that's how it used to be.

So if there's 169 legendary cards, and about 170k S2 cards. That's a 0.0994% chance.

Which means you have to make 1006 attempts

I just edited my post. That's a low bound because of CTE cards. But also a high bound because S1 spawns take a bit. I'd say overall, the chance I provided is lower than the actual spawn rate.

User avatar
Czardas
Retired Moderator
 
Posts: 6922
Founded: Feb 25, 2005
Ex-Nation

Postby Czardas » Tue May 24, 2022 10:18 am

I currently have 47 accounts and have been collecting cards for a month, so that’s approximately 30 x 4 x 47 x 0.2 packs. Out of those ~1,128 card packs (note: I have not actually counted the number of packs), I’ve found 17 legendaries, 12 season one packs, 8 high-value (>50 MV) CTE common cards. For an idea of approximate rarity, that’s 0.3%, 1.1% and 0.1% of cards, respectively. I have no idea if my experience is typical.

Obviously there are no guarantees for anything; the first card pack I ever opened contained a legendary card, for example. But again, with 47 accounts, it’s probably to be expected to find a legendary card every few days. Whenever card acquisition gets decoupled from issue answering that’s likely to change and we’ll be closer to parity.
30 | she/her | USA | ✡︎ | ☭ | ♫

I have devised a truly marvelous signature, which this textblock is too small to contain

User avatar
Incredible Bums
Chargé d'Affaires
 
Posts: 419
Founded: Mar 11, 2011
Liberal Democratic Socialists

Postby Incredible Bums » Tue May 24, 2022 10:37 am

Czardas wrote: Whenever card acquisition gets decoupled from issue answering that’s likely to change and we’ll be closer to parity.

This will be the moment when I leave this game. As if all the abusement of loopholes, cardinflation, card-farms of thousands of puppets with actually no restriction and more wouldn´t be enough. Maybe I should remind, that the game is called Nationstates (answering issues is a vital and fundamental part of managing a nation in this game)), and the cardgame was just an Aprils fools joke and still is only a subgame...

User avatar
Czardas
Retired Moderator
 
Posts: 6922
Founded: Feb 25, 2005
Ex-Nation

Postby Czardas » Tue May 24, 2022 11:13 am

Decoupling cards from issues will actually potentially reduce people’s ability to use puppets to farm cards, depending on how it’s done (I can think of a few ways that would make it possible to remove puppet farming, without the need for any major changes to how the game works). But I have no idea what will be done about inflation and the various loopholes (e.g. ability to buy new cards when your deck is full), or if these are even considered problems in need of addressing.
30 | she/her | USA | ✡︎ | ☭ | ♫

I have devised a truly marvelous signature, which this textblock is too small to contain

User avatar
The Hurricane
Chargé d'Affaires
 
Posts: 419
Founded: Mar 02, 2022
Capitalist Paradise

Postby The Hurricane » Tue May 24, 2022 11:18 am

I answered 300+ issues and only got 1.

User avatar
Belarusball
Civil Servant
 
Posts: 6
Founded: Mar 10, 2022
Scandinavian Liberal Paradise

Postby Belarusball » Tue May 24, 2022 11:23 am

I've gotten 2 so far, (not including gifts and buys), and both of them were from my card farming puppets.

User avatar
Fauzjhia
Ambassador
 
Posts: 1959
Founded: Jul 29, 2014
Left-wing Utopia

Postby Fauzjhia » Tue May 24, 2022 1:01 pm

let's see


we have 168077 cards in total and 169 legendaries, of which only 146 are represent alive nations,

we apparently have 110 379 cards that represent CTE nations

so from what I known normally, the cards are always taken from the 57698 nations that are alive
however, in 10% of the case, nations are taken in all cards that exist, rather just those who exist.

so 0,90 * ( 146/57698) (0,2 %)
+ 0.1 * ( 169/168 077)) 0.01%

we multiple this score by 5, because every pack has 5 cards and BOOM

we come at 1% chance of getting a legendary in a pack.
Warning Political position : Far-Left, self-identify as liberal-communist. also as Feminist, atheist, ecologist and nationalist.
Support : non-corrupt state, human rights, women rights, wild life protection, banning fossil fuel, cooperatives, journalists, Radio-Canada, Télé-Quebec, public media, public service, nationalization, freedom and right to be informed, Quebec's Independence, Protection of the French Language, Immigration right and integration.
really dislike conservatism

User avatar
Rhenna
Secretary
 
Posts: 26
Founded: Oct 19, 2022
Left-wing Utopia

Postby Rhenna » Mon Feb 13, 2023 7:39 pm

Fauzjhia wrote:let's see


we have 168077 cards in total and 169 legendaries, of which only 146 are represent alive nations,

we apparently have 110 379 cards that represent CTE nations

so from what I known normally, the cards are always taken from the 57698 nations that are alive
however, in 10% of the case, nations are taken in all cards that exist, rather just those who exist.

so 0,90 * ( 146/57698) (0,2 %)
+ 0.1 * ( 169/168 077)) 0.01%

we multiple this score by 5, because every pack has 5 cards and BOOM

we come at 1% chance of getting a legendary in a pack.

I see how your math works, but I feel that a 1% chance of a legendary is too high
-Rhenna
Seaker of World Republic

Citizen, MOI, and MGA of The Leftist Assembly


Advertisement

Remove ads

Return to Trading Cards

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users

Advertisement

Remove ads