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Hezbollah loses Lebanese majority

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HISPIDA
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Hezbollah loses Lebanese majority

Postby HISPIDA » Tue May 17, 2022 12:47 pm

Source.

The Iran-backed Shia Muslim Hezbollah movement and its allies have lost their majority in Lebanon's parliament, results from Sunday's election show.

The bloc's candidates won 62 of the 128 seats, three fewer than it needed.

Hezbollah retained its own seats, but President Michel Aoun's Christian Free Patriotic Movement lost support.

A rival Christian party with close ties to Saudi Arabia, the Lebanese Forces, made gains and independent candidates promising reforms won 13 seats.

But the lack of an outright winner and Lebanon's rigid power-sharing political structure means that the chance of significant change is still low.

The election was the first held since a 2019 nationwide uprising against a political elite widely seen as corrupt and ineffective.

The mass protests were sparked by the start of one of the worst economic depressions the world has seen in more than 150 years. An estimated 80% of Lebanon's population now live in poverty, and there have been severe shortages of food, fuel and medicines.

The country's problems have been compounded by the coronavirus pandemic and a devastating explosion at Beirut's port in 2020, which killed more than 200 people. The investigation into who was responsible has stalled repeatedly, as politicians failed to give evidence.

The Hezbollah-led bloc in parliament - including the Free Patriotic Movement (FPM) and the Shia Amal movement of Speaker Nabih Berri - had 71 seats in the last election in 2018.

Hezbollah and Amal's candidates held on to the 27 seats allocated to Shia Muslims in Sunday's vote, but many longtime allies suffered surprise defeats.

According to the L'Orient Today news site, the FPM won 17 seats, down from 20 in the outgoing parliament, while the Lebanese Forces (LF) won 19, up from 15, making it the biggest Christian party.

The LF is led by Samir Geagea, who was one of the most feared warlords during the 1975-90 civil war and is a fierce critic of Hezbollah's military power. He has said Lebanon needs a "radical change in power" to solve its problems.

The BBC's Anna Foster in Beirut says the LF's gains might have an impact on the election by MPs later this year of a new president, who has to be a Christian under the sectarian power-sharing system.

The victories of independent candidates and non-aligned parties were also significant, our correspondent adds.

In the central Aley district, the Hezbollah-allied Druze politician Talal Arslan was defeated by the Taqaddom party's Marc Daou, who ran on a reform agenda.

And in the south - a stronghold of Hezbollah - Elias Jradi of the Together Towards Change list, won an Orthodox Christian seat from Assaad Hardan, leader of the Hezbollah-allied Syrian Socialist Nationalist Party.

Prime Minister Najib Mikati urged the newly elected MPs to quickly agree on the make-up of new government, which he hopes to lead, "because what we are passing through cannot withstand bickering at the expense of priorities".

Its priorities will be negotiating an rescue package with the International Monetary Fund and drafting laws to help spark an economic recovery.
Our correspondent says Hezbollah will still be hugely influential in the new parliament, but that it might need to do more negotiating and make more compromises to get its own way.

Much of the militant group's power comes from outside the political system anyway, she adds, and not much will change in the day-to-day lives of the people living in its strongholds.


So... what are we thinking here?

If you want my opinion, this shows that Saudi Arabia is finally beginning to "win" the Middle Eastern Cold War. If Lebanon slips from Iran's grasp in the next election cycle or maybe through civil resistance in Lebanon then there's a chance that Iraq could be next, although that would be a long ways away. If Hezbollah support continues to dip in Lebanon then it could be a sign of shifting tides not just in Lebanon but also in Israel and Syria, the two countries that Lebanon borders.

Anyways, NSG; what are your thoughts?
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Barlyy
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Postby Barlyy » Tue May 17, 2022 12:53 pm

Finally, some good news. Of course, the Saudis are no angels, but as long as Hezbollah's influence continues to plummet, it's good for Turkey.
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Arvenia
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Postby Arvenia » Tue May 17, 2022 12:57 pm

I fear another Lebanese Civil War would break out if Hezbollah loses support and maybe resorts to violence again.
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Postby Czardas » Tue May 17, 2022 2:36 pm

Disappointing but unsurprising news from the POV of Axis of Resistance supporters. (In fact it’s more surprising that the Hezbollah/Amal bloc held onto as many seats as they did; evidently the propaganda hasn’t taken full effect.) The Americans and their proxies are, at this point, simply more dedicated, more bloodthirsty and more cruel than anyone else—while maintaining a similar level of discipline to what resistance supporters could have had if they weren’t constantly undermined by American/Saudi/Israeli/etc violence and economic warfare—and therefore are likely to win almost every battle for the foreseeable future. But Hezbollah will stick around and when the next large-scale movement arises, perhaps in Palestine once Abbas is finally removed from power and perhaps somewhere completely different, it’ll still be here to help lead and direct the resistance forces. (Or I mean, maybe the Saudis will decide it’s time to arrange a new “Lebanese Civil War” to exterminate Hezbollah and the world will sink further towards an American boot stomping on a human face forever. Who knows.)

For opponents of the Axis of Resistance (I.e., almost everyone on this forum) this is good news and you guys should probably be happy or something, idk.
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Postby The Jamesian Republic » Tue May 17, 2022 2:41 pm

So does this mean Hezbollah will no longer be a political force in Lebanon? Or at least not in the government?
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Postby HISPIDA » Tue May 17, 2022 2:42 pm

The Jamesian Republic wrote:So does this mean Hezbollah will no longer be a political force in Lebanon? Or at least not in the government?

they're only a few seats off from the majority, they still have a sizable plurality; about 48% of parliament is controlled by hezbollah but it's been known for years they're losing influence
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Postby Czardas » Tue May 17, 2022 2:45 pm

The Jamesian Republic wrote:So does this mean Hezbollah will no longer be a political force in Lebanon? Or at least not in the government?

Still around. Probably will still be part of the government via some kind of coalition agreement (there’s pretty limited room for how those can work under the power-sharing rules). But evidently losing influence, allies and support, and at a time when its dedicated supporters generally believe it’s more necessary than ever.
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The Jamesian Republic
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Postby The Jamesian Republic » Tue May 17, 2022 2:48 pm

Hispida wrote:
The Jamesian Republic wrote:So does this mean Hezbollah will no longer be a political force in Lebanon? Or at least not in the government?

they're only a few seats off from the majority, they still have a sizable plurality; about 48% of parliament is controlled by hezbollah but it's been known for years they're losing influence


I see.

So what will happen to Lebanon then?
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Postby Meadowfields » Tue May 17, 2022 2:51 pm

It's not just Hezbollah lol. Hezbollah is only the third largest party in its bloc, the other two are the Free Patriotic Movement and Amal Movement.
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HISPIDA
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Postby HISPIDA » Tue May 17, 2022 2:51 pm

The Jamesian Republic wrote:
Hispida wrote:they're only a few seats off from the majority, they still have a sizable plurality; about 48% of parliament is controlled by hezbollah but it's been known for years they're losing influence


I see.

So what will happen to Lebanon then?

i assume hezbollah will continue to lose political relevance, but the next government will probably be a coalition between hezbollah and maybe the LF because IIRC the next lebanese president has to be a christian
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Postby The Jamesian Republic » Tue May 17, 2022 2:52 pm

Hispida wrote:
The Jamesian Republic wrote:
I see.

So what will happen to Lebanon then?

i assume hezbollah will continue to lose political relevance, but the next government will probably be a coalition between hezbollah and maybe the LF because IIRC the next lebanese president has to be a christian


The next president has to be Christian?
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Postby HISPIDA » Tue May 17, 2022 2:55 pm

The Jamesian Republic wrote:
Hispida wrote:i assume hezbollah will continue to lose political relevance, but the next government will probably be a coalition between hezbollah and maybe the LF because IIRC the next lebanese president has to be a christian


The next president has to be Christian?

no, looks like i was mistaken. half the seats in parliament are dedicated to christian parties however
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Postby The Jamesian Republic » Tue May 17, 2022 2:56 pm

Hispida wrote:
The Jamesian Republic wrote:
The next president has to be Christian?

no, looks like i was mistaken. half the seats in parliament are dedicated to christian parties however


Oh.
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Postby Arumdaum » Wed May 18, 2022 6:33 pm

The Jamesian Republic wrote:
Hispida wrote:i assume hezbollah will continue to lose political relevance, but the next government will probably be a coalition between hezbollah and maybe the LF because IIRC the next lebanese president has to be a christian


The next president has to be Christian?

Not next president, every president.

Lebanon has a system of government that divides power among different religious groups based on the size of their population

when they made the system,
Christians were largest, so president is always Christian
Sunni Muslims were second largest, so Prime Minister is always Sunni
Shia Muslims were third largest, so Speak of the Parliament is always Shia

Because of this holding a census is extremely controversial there lol

Today all groups are around 31-32% of the population

Unfortunately for Shias being Speaker of Parliament gives little power, so they were kinda screwed and were always locked out of power until Hezbollah came along

this is simplified version anyway
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Postby Thermodolia » Wed May 18, 2022 6:46 pm

The Lebanese Forces is a also has strong ties to not only KSA but Israel and the USA
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Postby Free Algerstonia » Wed May 18, 2022 7:38 pm

american neocolonialism at work once again
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Postby Evil Wolf » Thu May 19, 2022 1:21 pm

Free Algerstonia wrote:american neocolonialism at work once again


So Lebanon has the choice of being an Iranian puppet via keeping Hezbollah in power or being an "American Neo-colony" via voting for...anyone who isn't Hezbollah, apparently.

Does Lebanon have no right to self-determination, or is that concept an American plot as well?
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Postby Seragor » Fri May 20, 2022 6:05 am

Unsurprising, yet unfortunate nonetheless.
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Postby Page » Fri May 20, 2022 6:11 am

I gotta admit I'm pretty ignorant as far as Lebanese politics go. But I guess they got a lot of Christian factions and a lot of Muslim factions who sometimes work together? If there are Shia, Sunni, and Christians which two usually gang up on the other?
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Postby Islamic Holy Sites » Fri May 20, 2022 6:13 am

Page wrote:I gotta admit I'm pretty ignorant as far as Lebanese politics go. But I guess they got a lot of Christian factions and a lot of Muslim factions who sometimes work together? If there are Shia, Sunni, and Christians which two usually gang up on the other?

They all distrust each other, but I think, correct me if I’m wrong, that the Christians and Sunnis do so less than with the Shia
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Postby Sungoldy-China » Fri May 20, 2022 11:31 am

Lebanon's democracy is a collection of stupidity, inefficiency, and incompetence, and it's hard to imagine that anyone could create a political system like that.
The fate of this country is doomed from the moment such a system is chosen, I suggest inviting France to return and restore the its governorship
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Postby Heloin » Fri May 20, 2022 2:35 pm

Page wrote:I gotta admit I'm pretty ignorant as far as Lebanese politics go. But I guess they got a lot of Christian factions and a lot of Muslim factions who sometimes work together? If there are Shia, Sunni, and Christians which two usually gang up on the other?

Depends on the day of the week and what the upcoming holiday is.

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Postby Thermodolia » Fri May 20, 2022 2:49 pm

Sungoldy-China wrote:Lebanon's democracy is a collection of stupidity, inefficiency, and incompetence, and it's hard to imagine that anyone could create a political system like that.
The fate of this country is doomed from the moment such a system is chosen, I suggest inviting France to return and restore the its governorship

Interestingly a good bit of Lebanese people want the French back
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Postby Hukhalia » Fri May 20, 2022 2:50 pm

Barlyy wrote:Finally, some good news. Of course, the Saudis are no angels, but as long as Hezbollah's influence continues to plummet, it's good for Turkey.

The Turks are far from angels as well.
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