Ethiopian Civil War and Humanitarian Crisis

[Fahran]

Following the fall of Mekelle last year, the consensus among international observors was that the bulk of the fighting in Ethiopia's Tigray region had come to a close, with the central government decisively suppressing resistance from the country's Tigrayan minority. Atrocities, such as war rapes, massacres, and various other human rights violations, and famine beset the defeated region. In the past month, however, the situation has changed dramatically.

The TPLF and TDF recaptured Mekelle in June, prompting Ethiopia's Abiy Ahmed to agree to a ceasefire on June 28th, 2021. It has been stated, on no uncertain terms, that Eritrean forces, who have collaborated with Ethiopian forces, will withdraw. Ethiopian officials fled Mekelle amid cheers from local inhabitants. The TPLF/TDF, according to numerous international organizations, now occupy most of the Tigray region and, while Ethiopia has been adamant that it could regain control of the situation within three weeks, Abiy Ahmed's statements, the ceasefire, and the withdrawal of the Eritreans suggest that the government might be taking a more level-headed approach to its recent setbacks.

Keeping that and statements from Tigrayan officials in mind, is it possible that we'll see a peaceful resolution in the coming months?

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Rebel fighters in the Tigray region of Ethiopia are continuing to gain ground after recapturing the regional capital Mekelle from government forces.

The rebels have now entered the town of Shire, about 140km (90 miles) to the north-west, according to UN officials.

Eritrean troops backing the Ethiopian army had earlier abandoned the city.

The government has declared a ceasefire in the eight-month conflict, but the rebels have vowed to drive their "enemies" from Tigray.

The fighting between the Tigray People's Liberation Front (TPLF) and government forces has left thousands of people dead.

More than two million have been displaced and 350,000 pushed towards famine.

The fighting began in November, when rebels rejected political reforms and captured army bases. Government forces captured Mekelle later that month.

There were scenes of jubilation in the streets of the capital on Tuesday, a day after the rebels retook the city following a rapid offensive. The central government has called a "humanitarian ceasefire" in the region.

Rebel spokesman Getachew Reda told Reuters news agency that Tigrayan fighters would "destroy the enemy" by entering Eritrea and the Ethiopian region of Amhara - whose militias have also supported government forces.

"We have to ensure that the enemy... doesn't have the capability to threaten the security of our people anymore," he said.

The status of Eritrean troops remains unclear, although one resident in Shire told Reuters the Eritreans appeared to be moving north, towards the border.

The rebels are now in control of most of the region, the research organisation International Crisis Group said.

It is difficult to verify information in Tigray as communications have been cut.

Here's a little insight about one of the personalities behind the TPLF.

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Here's a little insight on the humanitarian situation in Tigray and else-where in Ethiopia.

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[Salus Maior]

...Wow...

Well, hopefully this means that the genocide in the region is brought to an end. But I suppose it may be more realistic to think that this just means that there's going to be reprisal slaughters.

[Dowaesk]

I have read numerous sources on the Tigray Conflict. I still dont get it. Can someone in their own words explain how and why it began and the motives. Use baby words. Am still very confused over here.

[New Odrana]

I have read numerous sources on the Tigray Conflict. I still dont get it. Can someone in their own words explain how and why it began and the motives. Use baby words. Am still very confused over here.

In simplistic terms, the Tigray People's Liberation Front had dominated the country's political system since the fall of communism, despite Tigrays only composing ~6% of the population (the 3rd or 4th largest ethnic group). The current prime minister, an Oromo (the largest group), formed a new political party/coalition with the various other ethnic parties wanting to move the country away from its ethnicity-based politics. The TPLF saw this as a move to undermine their power and the position of Tigrays in Ethiopian society, so they refused to join. Since then, tension had been mounting between the federal government and the regional government of Tigray, which keeps trying to assert its autonomy.

[Kowani]

I have read numerous sources on the Tigray Conflict. I still dont get it. Can someone in their own words explain how and why it began and the motives. Use baby words. Am still very confused over here.

In simplistic terms, the Tigray People's Liberation Front had dominated the country's political system since the fall of communism, despite Tigrays only composing ~6% of the population (the 3rd or 4th largest ethnic group). The current prime minister, an Oromo (the largest group), formed a new political party/coalition with the various other ethnic parties wanting to move the country away from its ethnicity-based politics. The TPLF saw this as a move to undermine their power and the position of Tigrays in Ethiopian society, so they refused to join. Since then, tension had been mounting between the federal government and the regional government of Tigray, which keeps trying to assert its autonomy.

also, the ethopian government has just been openly talking about wanting to commit genocide against the tigrayans

[Ethel mermania]

I have read numerous sources on the Tigray Conflict. I still dont get it. Can someone in their own words explain how and why it began and the motives. Use baby words. Am still very confused over here.

In simplistic terms, the Tigray People's Liberation Front had dominated the country's political system since the fall of communism, despite Tigrays only composing ~6% of the population (the 3rd or 4th largest ethnic group). The current prime minister, an Oromo (the largest group), formed a new political party/coalition with the various other ethnic parties wanting to move the country away from its ethnicity-based politics. The TPLF saw this as a move to undermine their power and the position of Tigrays in Ethiopian society, so they refused to join. Since then, tension had been mounting between the federal government and the regional government of Tigray, which keeps trying to assert its autonomy.

Well thats the governments story yes. The tigrayan folks tell a very different one

[Immortan Khan]

Hopefully they capture Ahmed and hang him for genocide. Nobel Peace Prize winner everyone.

[New Odrana]

In simplistic terms, the Tigray People's Liberation Front had dominated the country's political system since the fall of communism, despite Tigrays only composing ~6% of the population (the 3rd or 4th largest ethnic group). The current prime minister, an Oromo (the largest group), formed a new political party/coalition with the various other ethnic parties wanting to move the country away from its ethnicity-based politics. The TPLF saw this as a move to undermine their power and the position of Tigrays in Ethiopian society, so they refused to join. Since then, tension had been mounting between the federal government and the regional government of Tigray, which keeps trying to assert its autonomy.

also, the ethopian government has just been openly talking about wanting to commit genocide against the tigrayans

To us, it's genocide. To an African government, it's Tuesday. On a more serious note, that's fucked, but it's not like the Tigrayans don't hold the Omoro and Ahmara in equal disdain--they're just smart enough not to say it out loud. Not defending it by any means, but I'm certainly not shocked, either.

In simplistic terms, the Tigray People's Liberation Front had dominated the country's political system since the fall of communism, despite Tigrays only composing ~6% of the population (the 3rd or 4th largest ethnic group). The current prime minister, an Oromo (the largest group), formed a new political party/coalition with the various other ethnic parties wanting to move the country away from its ethnicity-based politics. The TPLF saw this as a move to undermine their power and the position of Tigrays in Ethiopian society, so they refused to join. Since then, tension had been mounting between the federal government and the regional government of Tigray, which keeps trying to assert its autonomy.

Well thats the governments story yes. The tigrayan folks tell a very different one

They asked me to explain in my own words, so I did. I guess my understanding of it simply happens to be aligned with the government's narrative. Feel free to offer a different perspective. I'm certainly not an authority on the conflict or Ethiopia in-general, I was just accommodating the other user to the best of my ability.

[New Odrana]

Hopefully they capture Ahmed and hang him for genocide. Nobel Peace Prize winner everyone.

Obama won a Nobel Peace Prize. I don't know if anyone actually takes that award seriously anymore.

[Risottia]

...Wow...

Well, hopefully this means that the genocide in the region is brought to an end. But I suppose it may be more realistic to think that this just means that there's going to be reprisal slaughters.

Likely not the end. The Ethiopian-engineered famine is going to last.

[Old Tyrannia]

It seems that the Tigrayans have proven us all wrong and once again demonstrated that their considerable martial reputation is well deserved. Good for them.

I wonder if Tigray will now push for full independence from Ethiopia.

[Fahran]

I have read numerous sources on the Tigray Conflict. I still dont get it. Can someone in their own words explain how and why it began and the motives. Use baby words. Am still very confused over here.

In simplistic terms, the Tigray People's Liberation Front had dominated the country's political system since the fall of communism, despite Tigrays only composing ~6% of the population (the 3rd or 4th largest ethnic group). The current prime minister, an Oromo (the largest group), formed a new political party/coalition with the various other ethnic parties wanting to move the country away from its ethnicity-based politics. The TPLF saw this as a move to undermine their power and the position of Tigrays in Ethiopian society, so they refused to join. Since then, tension had been mounting between the federal government and the regional government of Tigray, which keeps trying to assert its autonomy.

It's a bit more complicated in many respects. The TPLF held a lot of influence within the Ethiopian People's Revolutionary Democratic Front, in no small part because Tigrayan figures had been instrumental in ousting the communist dictatorship. The EPRDF, throughout its life, had been an alliance of ethnic political parties and movements rather than an ideological faction. Things initially became dicey when Prime Minister Meles Zenawi, a Tigrayan, passed away. This brought the ethnic divisions within the EPRDF to the forefront of people's minds, and officials from Amhara and Oromia aligned themselves to ensure the election of Abiy Ahmed, an Oromo.

Abiy Ahmed seems to have been pursuing a policy designed to reduce ethnic divisions within the EPRDF, especially through the formation of his Prosperity Party, but numerous actions by the Prime Minister have been met with suspicion and hostility from members of the TPLF in particular. The TPLF was removed from the government in 2018, in part because of public discontent. We then saw a series of spats between Tigray's regional government, still run by the TPLF with popular consent, and Ethiopia's national government, which attempted to impose its authority.

Even Tigrayans formerly aligned with Abiy Ahmed and the Prosperity Party reacted negatively to his rescheduling of elections and his cozying up to the Eritrean government, which is viewed negatively in Tigray. These disputes culminated in attempts to arrest members of the TPLF and the Ethiopian government designating a largely mainstream political party a terrorist organization. While the government points to the party's militant wing, it's important to note that Amharan and Oromo political parties have militias associated with them and that these militias have been active throughout the Tigray War.

Following the designation and mobilization by both sides, war broke out. Since November, atrocities have occurred on both sides with increasing frequency, though it's not a stretch to state that the Tigrayans have gotten the worst of it, especially with the Ethiopian-made famine assailing the region at present. There's also the fact that the Ethiopian government has begun using genocidal language.

As for the hopes of the peace process, Tigrayan leadership seems eager to take the fight even beyond the Tigray region, which does not bode well for prospects of a permanent settlement in the next few months but may be the more prudent military decision if the Ethiopian army is in serious disarray.

[Henna-Kassel]

What is this?

[Kowani]

After receiving reinforcements, Ethiopian government troops, Amhara militias and Eritrean soldiers remain in control of Humera, areas along western Tigray, and the Sudanese border

[Immortan Khan]

[Ethel mermania]

After receiving reinforcements, Ethiopian government troops, Amhara militias and Eritrean soldiers remain in control of Humera, areas along western Tigray, and the Sudanese border

I thought eteria was on the tigrey side.

I need a score card.

[Kowani]

After receiving reinforcements, Ethiopian government troops, Amhara militias and Eritrean soldiers remain in control of Humera, areas along western Tigray, and the Sudanese border

I thought eteria was on the tigrey side.

I need a score card.

one side: Ethiopian Central government+amharan ethnic militias+eritrean forces

other side: Tigrayan Defense Force


and
that's kind of it

[Heloin]

After receiving reinforcements, Ethiopian government troops, Amhara militias and Eritrean soldiers remain in control of Humera, areas along western Tigray, and the Sudanese border

I thought eteria was on the tigrey side.

I need a score card.

I doubt Eteria is on either side of this conflict.

[Samudera Darussalam]

I thought eteria was on the tigrey side.

I need a score card.

one side: Ethiopian Central government+amharan ethnic militias+eritrean forces

other side: Tigrayan Defense Force


and
that's kind of it

I'm just not sure why the Amharan ethnic militia feel like it's important for them to be involved, but I guess that's caused by some inter-ethnic problem.

[Parxland]

I have read numerous sources on the Tigray Conflict. I still dont get it. Can someone in their own words explain how and why it began and the motives. Use baby words. Am still very confused over here.

Ethiopia wants to hurt it's Tigray people. The Tigray people just gave Ethiopia the finger.

[Ethel mermania]

I thought eteria was on the tigrey side.

I need a score card.

I doubt Eteria is on either side of this conflict.

You know your making fun of the fat fingered people

[Philjia]

I would like whatever outcome would take the region furthest away from the chances of repressive one party states and ethnic cleansing, although this being an African civil war the chances of the opposite of that happening are fairly high.

After receiving reinforcements, Ethiopian government troops, Amhara militias and Eritrean soldiers remain in control of Humera, areas along western Tigray, and the Sudanese border

I thought eteria was on the tigrey side.

I need a score card.

Ethiopia alleges that Eritrean dissidents are supporting the rebels, although this hasn't been corroborated.

[New Odrana]

I thought eteria was on the tigrey side.

I need a score card.

I doubt Eteria is on either side of this conflict.

Well, they had to find something to do after Greece gained its independence.

[Kowani]

UN receives reports that hundreds of Eritrean refugees in the town of Shire have allegedly been killed by local militias

The UN's refugee agency says it is "alarmed" by reports of attacks on Eritrean refugees in Ethiopia’s war-torn Tigray region.

A spokesperson for the UNHCR's Ethiopia office told the BBC they received reports, "from online and other sources", that hundreds of Eritrean refugees in the western town of Shire have allegedly been killed".

"We take these reports very seriously and have immediately reached out to our staff, partners, and Eritrean refugees in Shire," Neven Crvenkovic said in an email to the BBC.

"We have so far not been able to corroborate any of the allegations received but we continue collecting relevant information to help assess the veracity of these reports," he added.

Rights activists say they have received reports that many refugees were brutally killed by local militias. But it is difficult to confirm the reports as there is a communication blackout in the region, following the withdrawal of Ethiopian troops from Tigray last week.

"The primary responsibility of ensuring the security of the camps lies with the authorities, and we continue to liaise with both local authorities and the Ethiopian refugee agency, Arra, to ensure the security and protection of refugees in the camps,” said the UNHCR.

However, it is not clear how federal authorities can guarantee the safety of the refugees, as they were no longer in Tigray

Around 100,000 Eritreans were in refugee camps when war broke out in Tigray in early November.

Two of the four camps were later discovered destroyed. Many of the more 20,000 refugees who had been sheltered in the camps are still unaccounted for.

Eritrean forces who had been fighting on the side of the Ethiopian government army were accused of kidnapping refugees. Eritrean authorities denied the allegation.

Shimelba and Hitsats camps were located in north-western Tigray, not far from the Eritrean border.

As aid agencies left the camps, the refugees were left with no food and other critical supplies for months.

Some were later able to move to other relatively safer camps in the south-western part of the region.

The UNHCR says land has been allocated in the neighbouring Amhara region to set up a new camp.

There are around 200,000 Eritrean refugees in Ethiopia, according to government reports.

[Kubra]

I doubt Eteria is on either side of this conflict.

Well, they had to find something to do after Greece gained its independence.

the true Illuminati