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China's growing power casts doubt on US defense of Taiwan

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Kubra
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Postby Kubra » Fri Jun 11, 2021 8:43 am

Orostan wrote:
Kubra wrote: It wouldn't be the weirdest thing that a marxist grouplet ever believed. Well, maybe weirdest, but certainly not the most harmful of the weird.
The best part is where the posadists diverted funds meant for guns and ammo for, in true trotskyist fashion, newspapers in italy.

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Postby Los-Altos » Fri Jun 11, 2021 6:21 pm

Orostan wrote:
Glorious Hong Kong wrote:
In Chinese, the surname comes first followed by the generation name and finally the given name. Xi is his surname. My own Chinese name follows this format.

Biden's approach is much more subtle in terms of anti-China rhetoric, yet equally if not more meaningful in substance, in stark contrast to the the Trump administration's much more forceful, bombastic, and inspirational anti-China rhetoric. In all fairness, Joe Biden seems to be doing a far better job of standing up to China than any of his predecessors, Republican or Democrat alike, although Donald Trump was the first president to really signal a major foreign policy shift of any sort, although much of this was guided by his much more informed and principled Secretary of State, Mike Pompeo, rather than his own personal, ever-changing whims. Were it not for Pompeo and the coronavirus, Trump would never have adopted such a hard line in the first place. His Democratic successor is merely building on his China policy in a way that I happen to approve of. For this reason alone, my overall opinion of Joe Biden tends to be more neutral than negative.

Biden just needs to make sure the United States doesn't take its eye off of Taiwan while attempting to deal with the sudden buildup of Russian troops along the border with Ukraine, because the civilized democracies of the world can't take on both Russia and China simultaneously. Washington must remind Moscow that China has historical claims to parts of Russia and the Russians need to literally watch their backs or risk a repeat of the disastrous 1905 Russo-Japanese War, only with China instead of Japan as their enemy. Washington must also ensure that the MSM continues to keep one eye on Beijing at all times because the CCP will always take advantage of any gaps in international media coverage in order to advance its agenda in Occupied East Turkestan, Hong Kong, or Taiwan. The amoeba will simply continue to grow and grow unchecked.

Joe Biden must do what I called on his predecessor to do: formally recognize and establish official diplomatic ties with Taiwan. Deliver nukes to Taiwan and point them at Beijing, Shanghai, and other Chinese cities. Station U.S. forces in substantial numbers on and around the island to deter Chinese military aggression.

My god, are you insane? Stationing nukes in Taiwan would be an incredible act of aggression and a massive escalation. It’s like China putting nukes to aim at the USA in Mexico. It makes the probability of someone making a mistake a destroying the world much higher for no reason. Taiwan is a province of China and both the PRC and ROC (Taiwan) believe this anyways, recognizing Taiwan is pointless diplomatically if Taiwan says Taiwan isn’t a country.

Furthermore China and Russia have no reason to fight each other as China doesn’t even claim territory the Qing dynasty had. They have their problems but both have no reason to fight a war.


There are hardliners in China that would like to claim the former territories (Liaoyang province) the Ming acquired after the fall of the Yuan dynasty which was a Mongol dynasty which controlled China for a century. It included Sakhalin island. Read - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Manchuria_under_Yuan_rule

And this - https://www.russia-briefing.com/news/da ... nwai.html/

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Orostan
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Postby Orostan » Fri Jun 11, 2021 8:05 pm

Los-Altos wrote:
Orostan wrote:My god, are you insane? Stationing nukes in Taiwan would be an incredible act of aggression and a massive escalation. It’s like China putting nukes to aim at the USA in Mexico. It makes the probability of someone making a mistake a destroying the world much higher for no reason. Taiwan is a province of China and both the PRC and ROC (Taiwan) believe this anyways, recognizing Taiwan is pointless diplomatically if Taiwan says Taiwan isn’t a country.

Furthermore China and Russia have no reason to fight each other as China doesn’t even claim territory the Qing dynasty had. They have their problems but both have no reason to fight a war.


There are hardliners in China that would like to claim the former territories (Liaoyang province) the Ming acquired after the fall of the Yuan dynasty which was a Mongol dynasty which controlled China for a century. It included Sakhalin island. Read - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Manchuria_under_Yuan_rule

And this - https://www.russia-briefing.com/news/da ... nwai.html/

These are social media users saying nonsense, why are they relevant? Also, what hardliners? Do they actually exist in the government? I doubt it!
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Postby The Lone Alliance » Fri Jun 11, 2021 8:16 pm

China would effectively be able to take Taiwan but the problem is that in the process China will lose everything outside of the range of their land based missiles.

Including their productive trade systems with the rest of the world.

That makes invading Taiwan more costly than it's worth, they get Taiwan but disrupt global trade possibly for months.
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Postby Atheris » Fri Jun 11, 2021 8:17 pm

Orostan wrote:
Los-Altos wrote:
There are hardliners in China that would like to claim the former territories (Liaoyang province) the Ming acquired after the fall of the Yuan dynasty which was a Mongol dynasty which controlled China for a century. It included Sakhalin island. Read - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Manchuria_under_Yuan_rule

And this - https://www.russia-briefing.com/news/da ... nwai.html/

These are social media users saying nonsense, why are they relevant? Also, what hardliners? Do they actually exist in the government? I doubt it!

I know it's not Russia, but I believe the PRC claims some areas of Vietnam and Tajikistan as well as the territorial waters off the Philippines, Vietnam, and Japan.
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Postby Hakinda Herseyi Duymak istiyorum » Fri Jun 11, 2021 8:35 pm

The US government need not be afraid because the US is doing whatever it wants in the world, and no one can stop it.
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Postby The Lone Alliance » Fri Jun 11, 2021 9:00 pm

Hakinda Herseyi Duymak istiyorum wrote:The US government need not be afraid because the US is doing whatever it wants in the world, and no one can stop it.

Not really, there's actually quite a bit that the US can't actually do what it wants with the world without ending the world in the process.

And ending the world means the US loses too.
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Postby North Washington Republic » Fri Jun 11, 2021 9:24 pm

Hakinda Herseyi Duymak istiyorum wrote:The US government need not be afraid because the US is doing whatever it wants in the world, and no one can stop it.


Xi is hell bend on annexing Taiwan. The United States basically did nothing when Putin annexed Crimea. So, he thinks he can get away with doing it in Taiwan. If the United States really wants to defend Taiwan’s sovereignty, they need to send some big ass battleships right now.
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Postby Conservative Republic Of Huang » Fri Jun 11, 2021 9:39 pm

Atheris wrote:
Orostan wrote:These are social media users saying nonsense, why are they relevant? Also, what hardliners? Do they actually exist in the government? I doubt it!

I know it's not Russia, but I believe the PRC claims some areas of Vietnam and Tajikistan as well as the territorial waters off the Philippines, Vietnam, and Japan.

I know for a fact that the mainland border with Vietnam is resolved, and I think the Tajikistan issue might be as well. It's also worth noting that PRC claims to the Senkakus and the South China Sea are shared by the ROC, the former of which is pursed quite aggressively by the ROC.
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Postby Stellar Colonies » Fri Jun 11, 2021 10:04 pm

The claims put forth by the ROC and PRC upon the South China Sea (and each other) are incredibly unreasonable and rightfully should be rejected, but there is also the fact that the US has territories as far as Guam on the other side of the Pacific.
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Postby Sungoldy-China » Sat Jun 12, 2021 2:40 am

The essence of the Taiwan issue is the relationship between China and the United States,
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Postby Adamede » Sat Jun 12, 2021 3:49 am

Stellar Colonies wrote:The claims put forth by the ROC and PRC upon the South China Sea (and each other) are incredibly unreasonable and rightfully should be rejected, but there is also the fact that the US has territories as far as Guam on the other side of the Pacific.

As do the French and the British. However in this is just whataboutism now.
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Postby Kubra » Sat Jun 12, 2021 9:36 am

North Washington Republic wrote:
Hakinda Herseyi Duymak istiyorum wrote:The US government need not be afraid because the US is doing whatever it wants in the world, and no one can stop it.


Xi is hell bend on annexing Taiwan. The United States basically did nothing when Putin annexed Crimea. So, he thinks he can get away with doing it in Taiwan. If the United States really wants to defend Taiwan’s sovereignty, they need to send some big ass battleships right now.
crimea and Taiwan are not comparable.
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Postby Washington Resistance Army » Sat Jun 12, 2021 2:12 pm

Peaceful and Voluntary Exchange wrote:4. China would suffer tremendous internal strife from citizens fed up with XI and his totalitarian policies. Xi government would collapse, while Taiwan stands strong.


In no world would this ever happen. People in China learned what happens when you oppose the party in '89. They'll run your ass over with armored vehicles then power wash your pulped remains off the road so things look fine in the morning.
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Orostan
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Postby Orostan » Sat Jun 12, 2021 2:35 pm

Peaceful and Voluntary Exchange wrote:
Jolthig wrote:


https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.nbcnew ... cna1262148

...And there you have it, folks. The declining power of the US and the growing might in China. We are seeing history repeat itself, here. Empires are shifting and Taiwan is no doubt an ambition for itself to conquer. This would be an injury to US pride, being the world policeman which is why Taiwan is priority for us. None of us want war, but it seems to be more inevitable within the next few decades.

China will do whatever it can to win this competition whether through military or economic might as it already has been doing. They'll use politics & rhetoric to get their way in world affairs. Taiwan is a special case.

The only "good" that would come out of this if war does ensure somehow, is the Chinese Civil War would conclude as much like the Korean War, it technically still on a legal basis is still happening despite no fighting as both the ROC & PRC view one another as rebels against the state that must be suppressed.

I just hope and pray things turn for the best no matter what.


THe PLA would be crushed in any military attack on Taiwan.

1. The PLA navy is a joke. China doesn't have the wherewithal to introduce troops into Taiwan. Hence, you can't control a nation without boots on the ground.
2. China would be forever vilified by the geopolitic. Chinese trade would dry up to a trickle. Their economy would collapse in a fortnight.
3. China would invite the ire of powerful regional actors like Japan and South Korea. Combined with the US, this triad would crush China economically in an arms race.
4. China would suffer tremendous internal strife from citizens fed up with XI and his totalitarian policies. Xi government would collapse, while Taiwan stands strong.

The list goes on and one.

Although, Xi and the current CCP fancy themselves Hitlerlike Nazis. I wouldn't be surprised by any provocation from these autocratic sociopaths.

1. I don’t know that much about the PLA Navy but their newer missiles are no joke.

2. More countries need China more than China needs them. There will be no economic blockade of China - it’s an impossibility.

3. Japan and SK are American client states and even they are going to think twice about shutting themselves off from China, which is the world’s largest economy by many measurements now I believe.

4. Absolute fantasy. 95% of Chinese approve of their central government because it’s actually improved their lives with anti-poverty programs and raising their wages. Don’t believe me? Believe Harvard.

https://news.harvard.edu/gazette/story/ ... isfaction/

Xi and the CPC are much less genocidal than the US, and much less like hitlerites. How many millions of Iraqis have they killed in the last three decades? How many Latin American coups did they back? How many millions died between the foundation of the PRC and today in Chinese backed dictatorships?

None! It’s the USA that has been massacring people all over the world often with the help of actual nazis since 1945. NATO was in large part run by Nazi generals. The west German state that was set up by the US was full of nazis. This is to just name a few examples.
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Orostan
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Postby Orostan » Sat Jun 12, 2021 2:36 pm

Peaceful and Voluntary Exchange wrote:
Glorious Hong Kong wrote:
In Chinese, the surname comes first followed by the generation name and finally the given name. Xi is his surname. My own Chinese name follows this format.

Biden's approach is much more subtle in terms of anti-China rhetoric, yet equally if not more meaningful in substance, in stark contrast to the the Trump administration's much more forceful, bombastic, and inspirational anti-China rhetoric. In all fairness, Joe Biden seems to be doing a far better job of standing up to China than any of his predecessors, Republican or Democrat alike, although Donald Trump was the first president to really signal a major foreign policy shift of any sort, although much of this was guided by his much more informed and principled Secretary of State, Mike Pompeo, rather than his own personal, ever-changing whims. Were it not for Pompeo and the coronavirus, Trump would never have adopted such a hard line in the first place. His Democratic successor is merely building on his China policy in a way that I happen to approve of. For this reason alone, my overall opinion of Joe Biden tends to be more neutral than negative.

Biden just needs to make sure the United States doesn't take its eye off of Taiwan while attempting to deal with the sudden buildup of Russian troops along the border with Ukraine, because the civilized democracies of the world can't take on both Russia and China simultaneously. Washington must remind Moscow that China has historical claims to parts of Russia and the Russians need to literally watch their backs or risk a repeat of the disastrous 1905 Russo-Japanese War, only with China instead of Japan as their enemy. Washington must also ensure that the MSM continues to keep one eye on Beijing at all times because the CCP will always take advantage of any gaps in international media coverage in order to advance its agenda in Occupied East Turkestan, Hong Kong, or Taiwan. The amoeba will simply continue to grow and grow unchecked.

Joe Biden must do what I called on his predecessor to do: formally recognize and establish official diplomatic ties with Taiwan. Deliver nukes to Taiwan and point them at Beijing, Shanghai, and other Chinese cities. Station U.S. forces in substantial numbers on and around the island to deter Chinese military aggression.


There is no need to place nukes on Taiwan.

Weaponizing Japan and South Korea with intermediate range nuke missiles will generate a multitude of soil trousers in the halls of power in Beijing and Pyongyang. China will stand down as the Soviet Union did during the tail end of the Cold War.

Autocrats are cowards when faced with their mortality from a resolute and righteous foe.

Absolute insanity. Japan and SK don’t want nukes - they have massive protests against US presence there already. It would also needless to say be a massive escalation - it’s the equivalent of China putting nukes in Canada and Mexico.
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Atheris
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Postby Atheris » Sat Jun 12, 2021 4:20 pm

Orostan wrote:Xi and the CPC are much less genocidal than the US, and much less like hitlerites. How many millions of Iraqis have they killed in the last three decades? How many Latin American coups did they back? How many millions died between the foundation of the PRC and today in Chinese backed dictatorships?

Dude, the PRC government is literally committing genocides against Tibetans, inner Mongolians, and Uyghurs as we speak.
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Postby Washington Resistance Army » Sat Jun 12, 2021 4:51 pm

Peaceful and Voluntary Exchange wrote:
Washington Resistance Army wrote:
In no world would this ever happen. People in China learned what happens when you oppose the party in '89. They'll run your ass over with armored vehicles then power wash your pulped remains off the road so things look fine in the morning.


Take a long look at history.


Dictatorships, particularly isolated, oppressive, genocidal, and expansionist totalitarian regimes don't last long.

Most definitely true when they are faced with a united economic, political and diplomatic onslaught from the West.


Quite the opposite, they tend to last forever unless violently toppled by an outside force or they cave to reformist demands. The USSR for example likely could have limped on if hardliners took over and simply responded to calls for reform or independence with violence.
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Postby The Reformed American Republic » Sat Jun 12, 2021 4:55 pm

Washington Resistance Army wrote:
Peaceful and Voluntary Exchange wrote:
Take a long look at history.


Dictatorships, particularly isolated, oppressive, genocidal, and expansionist totalitarian regimes don't last long.

Most definitely true when they are faced with a united economic, political and diplomatic onslaught from the West.


Quite the opposite, they tend to last forever unless violently toppled by an outside force or they cave to reformist demands. The USSR for example likely could have limped on if hardliners took over and simply responded to calls for reform or independence with violence.

Exactly, this is what China did; the free market "reforms" not withstanding.
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Orostan
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Postby Orostan » Sat Jun 12, 2021 5:21 pm

Atheris wrote:
Orostan wrote:Xi and the CPC are much less genocidal than the US, and much less like hitlerites. How many millions of Iraqis have they killed in the last three decades? How many Latin American coups did they back? How many millions died between the foundation of the PRC and today in Chinese backed dictatorships?

Dude, the PRC government is literally committing genocides against Tibetans, inner Mongolians, and Uyghurs as we speak.

No, it is absolutely not. The Mongol thing is nonsense too and the Tibetians aren't being killed either.

https://thegrayzone.com/2019/12/21/chin ... esearcher/

Peaceful and Voluntary Exchange wrote:
Atheris wrote:Dude, the PRC government is literally committing genocides against Tibetans, inner Mongolians, and Uyghurs as we speak.



Indeed, the moral compass of those on the left who draw a moral equivalency with the USA and China is irretrievably broken.

Not to mention the attacks on Hong Kong. Those on the left are ignorant to the fact that China has experienced conflict with virtually everyone of their neighbors, while the USA has the long undefended border in history and the other border is a magnet for people of color seeking refuge from corruption and violence.

The HK riots are US backed and are against an extradition law that wouldn't even threaten them.

https://thegrayzone.com/2019/11/22/hong ... ardliners/

The US has killed millions of people since 1945 all over the world or its puppet dictatorships have. There is no moral equivalency because the PRC is undeniably more moral than the USA in a lot of ways. Talking about how the USA is a magnet for "people of color" is incredible when the USA has done more than any other country to destroy those people's countries. Do a million Iraqis killed by the USA mean anything to you? Do death squads in south america armed and trained by the USA mean anything either?
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Atheris
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Postby Atheris » Sat Jun 12, 2021 7:24 pm

Washington Resistance Army wrote:
Peaceful and Voluntary Exchange wrote:
Take a long look at history.


Dictatorships, particularly isolated, oppressive, genocidal, and expansionist totalitarian regimes don't last long.

Most definitely true when they are faced with a united economic, political and diplomatic onslaught from the West.


Quite the opposite, they tend to last forever unless violently toppled by an outside force or they cave to reformist demands. The USSR for example likely could have limped on if hardliners took over and simply responded to calls for reform or independence with violence.

The hardliners did respond to calls to reform with violence. It wasn't Gorbachev that killed the USSR, it was the GKChP.

This is a discussion for another thread, though.
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Postby Picairn » Sat Jun 12, 2021 7:41 pm

Orostan wrote:4. Absolute fantasy. 95% of Chinese approve of their central government because it’s actually improved their lives with anti-poverty programs and raising their wages. Don’t believe me? Believe Harvard.

https://news.harvard.edu/gazette/story/ ... isfaction/

For the survey team, there are a number of possible explanations for why Chinese respondents view the central government in Beijing so favorably. According to Saich, a few factors include the proximity of central government from rural citizens, as well as highly positive news proliferated throughout the country.

This result supports the findings of more recent shorter-term surveys in China, and reinforces long-held patterns of citizens reporting local grievances to Beijing in hopes of central government action. “I think citizens often hear that the central government has introduced a raft of new policies, then get frustrated when they don’t always see the results of such policy proclamations, but they think it must be because of malfeasance or foot-dragging by the local government,” said Saich.

Compared to the relatively high satisfaction rates with Beijing, respondents held considerably less favorable views toward local government. At the township level, the lowest level of government surveyed, only 11.3 percent of respondents reported that they were “very satisfied.”

Holy crap this is absolute kek. So Harvard says one of the reasons the Chinese supports the central government so much is because of propaganda, while closer contact with local governments (which are also controlled by the CCP) produces far worse results.

For the US, it's the reverse. Citizens have a stronger trust towards their local governments than the fed.
Again, the U.S. reveals quite a different story. “American trust surveys over time show a clear distinction between low levels of trust towards the federal government, but a strong belief and faith in the power of local government — at the most local level, those positions may be filled by part-time volunteers who are a part of your everyday life,” said Cunningham. This dichotomy is highlighted by a 2017 Gallup poll, where 70 percent of U.S. respondents had a “great” or “fair” amount of trust in local government.

But wait, there's more! Local governments in China basically had to take the fall for the consequences of the central government's reforms, which explains citizens' low trust in them.
Saich contends that the lack of trust in local governments in China is due to the fact that they provide the vast majority of services to the Chinese people. This trust deficit was compounded by the 1994 tax reforms, which garnered a substantially larger share of total national tax revenues for the central government. Local governments, despite being faced with declining revenues, were still on the hook for providing the bulk of public services throughout China.

“Local governments were caught between dropping tax revenue and rising expenditures,” Cunningham said. “Many local governments then had to turn to ad-hoc extra budgetary fees to close the budget gap. I think that has consistently undermined trust at the local level.”
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Orostan
Negotiator
 
Posts: 5506
Founded: May 02, 2016
Civil Rights Lovefest

Postby Orostan » Sat Jun 12, 2021 7:51 pm

Picairn wrote:
Orostan wrote:4. Absolute fantasy. 95% of Chinese approve of their central government because it’s actually improved their lives with anti-poverty programs and raising their wages. Don’t believe me? Believe Harvard.

https://news.harvard.edu/gazette/story/ ... isfaction/

For the survey team, there are a number of possible explanations for why Chinese respondents view the central government in Beijing so favorably. According to Saich, a few factors include the proximity of central government from rural citizens, as well as highly positive news proliferated throughout the country.

This result supports the findings of more recent shorter-term surveys in China, and reinforces long-held patterns of citizens reporting local grievances to Beijing in hopes of central government action. “I think citizens often hear that the central government has introduced a raft of new policies, then get frustrated when they don’t always see the results of such policy proclamations, but they think it must be because of malfeasance or foot-dragging by the local government,” said Saich.

Compared to the relatively high satisfaction rates with Beijing, respondents held considerably less favorable views toward local government. At the township level, the lowest level of government surveyed, only 11.3 percent of respondents reported that they were “very satisfied.”

Holy crap this is absolute kek. So Harvard says one of the reasons the Chinese supports the central government so much is because of propaganda, while closer contact with local governments (which are also controlled by the CCP) produces far worse results.

For the US, it's the reverse. Citizens have a stronger trust towards their local governments than the fed.
Again, the U.S. reveals quite a different story. “American trust surveys over time show a clear distinction between low levels of trust towards the federal government, but a strong belief and faith in the power of local government — at the most local level, those positions may be filled by part-time volunteers who are a part of your everyday life,” said Cunningham. This dichotomy is highlighted by a 2017 Gallup poll, where 70 percent of U.S. respondents had a “great” or “fair” amount of trust in local government.

But wait, there's more! Local governments in China basically had to take the fall for the consequences of the central government's reforms, which explains citizens' low trust in them.
Saich contends that the lack of trust in local governments in China is due to the fact that they provide the vast majority of services to the Chinese people. This trust deficit was compounded by the 1994 tax reforms, which garnered a substantially larger share of total national tax revenues for the central government. Local governments, despite being faced with declining revenues, were still on the hook for providing the bulk of public services throughout China.

“Local governments were caught between dropping tax revenue and rising expenditures,” Cunningham said. “Many local governments then had to turn to ad-hoc extra budgetary fees to close the budget gap. I think that has consistently undermined trust at the local level.”

You did not mention that local governments are also regarded as more corrupt in China - Xi’s anti-corruption campaigns have got him support because of this.

You didn’t refute anything I said anyways or make a real argument against it. Do you believe Chinese people are mindless drones who believe whatever propaganda tells them to believe or so you think that Chinese people have better experiences with central government and not local government?
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Borderlands of Rojava
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Posts: 14813
Founded: Jul 27, 2020
Ex-Nation

Postby Borderlands of Rojava » Sat Jun 12, 2021 8:18 pm

I sympathize with the Taiwanese but at the same time, cab we really be going to war with China over one island?
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Founded: Dec 13, 2020
Left-wing Utopia

Postby Northern Socialist Council Republics » Sat Jun 12, 2021 9:01 pm

Borderlands of Rojava wrote:I sympathize with the Taiwanese but at the same time, cab we really be going to war with China over one island?

The Cold War May be over, but unfortunately the logic of brinkmanship still applies; neither the US nor China really wants to go to war against the other, but if they do not maintain a credible threat of going to war over transgressions then they risk the other party taking advantage of their generosity.
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