You may or may not have heard that tens of thousands of Russian troops are massing near the Ukrainian border as the Kremlin ramps up aggressive rhetoric— if not, let me be the bearer of bad news! Some observers think it’s a bluff, but whether it is or not, it’s a pretty scary situation— the Kremlin is looking for a win after domestic setbacks, the Ukrainians are begging Turkey for help (a NATO ally, even if they are the alliance’s problem child), and the usual suspects in the Blob on our side of the pond are already starting to ramp up their own rhetoric in response, I can only assume in case a war actually does start and they need to get the American people to go along with it. I always thought it would be a war over Taiwan that would end up getting me killed, if I’m being honest, but if the Russians attempt a more extensive invasion against Ukraine (which they’ve openly dreamed of re-annexing), it could very well force the West’s hand, especially if the Turks get involved.
So, what do we think is going to happen? Is all this just saber-rattling and posturing? Are we about to realize Comrade Posadas’s dream after the Turks drag NATO into the war? Are the Russians just going to take another salami slice of Ukraine and go home? Or is there some other option you think might play out?
My pessimistic side thinks we might all be fucked, but realistically I think there’s probably just going to be another phase of intense fighting that the US once again manages to stay out of directly. But after everything that’s happened in the past... five-plus years..? I’m prepared to be surprised.
